Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Cannibalism in juvenile blue-swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus (Linnaeus, 1766): effects of body size, moult stage and refuge availability

Factors influencing the rate of cannibalism in juvenile blue-swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus were investigated under controlled conditions using time-lapse video recordings. This study was undertaken to improve blue-swimmer crab culture and experimentally addressed (1) prey vulnerability (2) cannibal-victim interactions, and (3) activity patterns of juveniles in varying degrees of refuge. Crabs used in the study were aged 15 weeks and sorted into two size classes; small (less than or equal to 60 mm carapace width (CW)) and large (greater than or equal to65 mm CW) of a similar sex ratio. Vulnerability and thus survival was influenced by body size variation, moult stage and refuge availability. Crabs with carapace width less than or equal to 60 mm were more vulnerable than larger individuals, as indicated by significant differences in survival rates. As predicted, juveniles in transition stages associated with ecdysis were especially vulnerable. Premoult (redliner) crabs appeared to be in a high state of agitation as evidenced by the frequency of agonistic encounters and this may be a contributing factor to the high mortality observed at this critical premoult stag. increases in refuge density increased survival of juveniles proportionally, indicating that the quantity of shelter is important for reducing cannibalism in this species. Cannibal-victim interactions were frequently asymmetrical in terms of size and moult stage. Cannibals were significantly heavier than victims, and were predominantly at intermoult stage. Sexual biases among cannibals and victims were not found in this study. Activity patterns of juveniles were influenced by the experimental conditions. Crabs provided with high refuge showed reduced aggressive activity and increased time spent resting, but unchanged locomotion or feeding activity. Regular grading as well as the presence of suitable shelter for newly moulted crabs is recommended for improving culture of P. pelagicus. Research into inducing synchronous moulting may also yield promising results. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reducing the time period of steady state does not affect the accuracy of energy expenditure measurements by indirect calorimetry

Achievement of steady state during indirect calorimetry measurements of resting energy expenditure (REE) is necessary to reduce error and ensure accuracy in the measurement. Steady state is often defined as 5 consecutive min (5-min SS) during which oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production vary by +/-10%. These criteria, however, are stringent and often difficult to satisfy. This study aimed to assess whether reducing the time period for steady state (4-min SS or 3-min SS) produced measurements of REE that were significantly different from 5-min SS. REE was measured with the use of open-circuit indirect calorimetry in 39 subjects, of whom only 21 (54%) met the 5-min SS criteria. In these 21 subjects, median biases in REE between 5-min SS and 4-min SS and between 5-min SS and 3-min SS were 0.1 and 0.01%, respectively. For individuals, 4-min SS measured REE within a clinically acceptable range of +/-2% of 5-min SS, whereas 3-min SS measured REE within a range of -2-3% of 5-min SS. Harris-Benedict prediction equations estimated REE for individuals within +/-20-30% of 5-min SS. Reducing the time period of steady state to 4 min produced measurements of REE for individuals that were within clinically acceptable, predetermined limits. The limits of agreement for 3-min SS fell outside the predefined limits of +/-2%; however, both 4-min SS and 3-min SS criteria greatly increased the proportion of subjects who satisfied steady state within smaller limits than would be achieved if relying on prediction equations.

Isolation and characterization of integron-containing bacteria without antibiotic selection

The emergence of antibiotic resistance among pathogenic and commensal bacteria has become a serious problem worldwide. The use and overuse of antibiotics in a number of settings are contributing to the development of antibiotic-resistant microorganisms. The class 1 and 2 integrase genes (intI1 and intI2, respectively) were identified in mixed bacterial cultures enriched from bovine feces by growth in buffered peptone water (BPW) followed by integrase-specific PCR. Integrase-positive bacterial colonies from the enrichment cultures were then isolated by using hydrophobic grid membrane filters and integrase-specific gene probes. Bacterial clones isolated by this technique were then confirmed to carry integrons by further testing by PCR and DNA sequencing. Integron-associated antibiotic resistance genes were detected in bacteria such as Escherichia coli, Aeromonas spp., Proteus spp., Morganella morganii, Shewanella spp., and urea-positive Providencia stuartii isolates from bovine fecal samples without the use of selective enrichment media containing antibiotics. Streptomycin and trimethoprim resistance were commonly associated with integrons. The advantages conferred by this methodology are that a wide variety of integron-containing bacteria may be simultaneously cultured in BPW enrichments and culture biases due to antibiotic selection can be avoided. Rapid and efficient identification, isolation, and characterization of antibiotic resistance-associated integrons are possible by this protocol. These methods will facilitate greater understanding of the factors that contribute to the presence and transfer of integron-associated antibiotic resistance genes in bacterial isolates from red meat production animals.

Voltage control of exchange coupling in phosphorus doped silicon

Motivated by applications to quantum computer architectures we study the change in the exchange interaction between neighbouring phosphorus donor electrons in silicon due to the application of voltage biases to surface control electrodes. These voltage biases create electro-static fields within the crystal substrate, perturbing the states of the donor electrons and thus altering the strength of the exchange interaction between them. We find that control gates of this kind can be used to either enhance or reduce the strength of the interaction, by an amount that depends both on the magnitude and orientation of the donor separation.

Do expert drivers have a reduced illusion of superiority?

It is well established that people tend to rate themselves as better than average across many domains. To maintain these illusions, it is suggested that people distort feedback about their own and others' performance. This study examined expert/novice differences in self-ratings when people compared themselves with others of the same level of expertise and background as themselves. Given that a key expert characteristic is increased self-monitoring, we predicted that experts in a domain may have a reduced illusion of superiority because they are more aware of their actual ability. We compared expert police drivers with novice police drivers and found that this prediction was not supported. Expert police drivers rated themselves as superior to equally qualified drivers, to the same degree as novices, Cohen's d = .03 ns. Despite their extensive additional training and experience, experts still appear to be as susceptible to illusions of superiority Lis everyone else. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drivers' ratings of different components of their own driving skill: A greater illusion of superiority for skills that relate to accident involvement

Different components of driving skill relate to accident involvement in different ways. For instance, while hazard-perception skill has been found to predict accident involvement, vehicle-control skill has not. We found that drivers rated themselves superior to both their peers and the average driver on 18 components of driving skill (N = 181 respondents). These biases were greater for hazard-perception skills than for either vehicle-control skills or driving skill in general. Also, ratings of hazard-perception skill related to self-perceived safety after overall skill was controlled for. We suggest that although drivers appear to appreciate the role of hazard perception in safe driving, any safety benefit to be derived from this appreciation may be undermined by drivers' inflated opinions of their own hazard-perception skill. We also tested the relationship between illusory beliefs about driving skill and risk taking and looked at ways of manipulating drivers' illusory beliefs.

Cross-cultural perceptions in the leadership process: Theoretical perspective on the influence of culture on self-concepts and manager worker attributions

This article examines the influence of culture on the way managers and workers perceive causes of success and failure in organizational tasks. The author argues that selfserving and actor-observer biases, as well as other attribution errors, will be moderated by culture. Specifically, managers and workers with a sociocentric self-concept from high-context cultures may be biased toward external attributions, while managers from low-context cultures with an idiocentric self-concept have a tendency to make more internal attributions. These variations in attributions have consequences that affect both managers and workers. Theoretical propositions and implications for international management practices are discussed. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of total body water in infants and children

Background: In paediatric clinical practice treatment is often adjusted in relation to body size, for example the calculation of pharmacological and dialysis dosages. In addition to use of body weight, for some purposes total body water (TBW) and surface area are estimated from anthropometry using equations developed several decades previously. Whether such equations remain valid in contemporary populations is not known. Methods: Total body water was measured using deuterium dilution in 672 subjects (265 infants aged < 1 year; 407 children and adolescents aged 1-19 years) during the period 1990-2003. TBW was predicted (a) using published equations, and (b) directly from data on age, sex, weight, and height. Results: Previously published equations, based on data obtained before 1970, significantly overestimated TBW, with average biases ranging from 4% to 11%. For all equations, the overestimation of TBW was greatest in infancy. New equations were generated. The best equation, incorporating log weight, log height, age, and sex, had a standard error of the estimate of 7.8%. Conclusions: Secular trends in the nutritional status of infants and children are altering the relation between age or weight and TBW. Equations developed in previous decades significantly overestimate TBW in all age groups, especially infancy; however, the relation between TBW and weight may continue to change. This scenario is predicted to apply more generally to many aspects of paediatric clinical practice in which dosages are calculated on the basis of anthropometric data collected in previous decades.

Monitoring genetic diversity in tropical trees with multilocus dominant markers

Since no universal codominant markers are currently available, dominant genetic markers, such as amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), are valuable tools for assessing genetic diversity in tropical trees. However, the measurement of genetic diversity (H) with dominant markers depends on the frequency of null homozygotes (Q) and the fixation index (F) of populations. While Q can be estimated for AFLP loci, F is less accessible. Through a modelling approach, we show that the monolocus estimation of genetic diversity is strongly dependent on the value of F, but that the multilocus diversity estimate is surprisingly robust to variations in F. The robustness of the estimate is due to a mechanistic effect of compensation between negative and positive biases of H by different AFLP loci exhibiting contrasting frequency profiles of Q. The robustness was tested across contrasting theoretical frequency profiles of Q and verified for 10 neotropical species. Practical recommendations for the implementation of this analytical method are given for genetic surveys in tropical trees, where such markers are widely applied.

Use of the EM algorithm to detect QTL affecting multiple-traits in an across half-sib family analysis

QTL detection experiments in livestock species commonly use the half-sib design. Each male is mated to a number of females, each female producing a limited number of progeny. Analysis consists of attempting to detect associations between phenotype and genotype measured on the progeny. When family sizes are limiting experimenters may wish to incorporate as much information as possible into a single analysis. However, combining information across sires is problematic because of incomplete linkage disequilibrium between the markers and the QTL in the population. This study describes formulae for obtaining MLEs via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for use in a multiple-trait, multiple-family analysis. A model specifying a QTL with only two alleles, and a common within sire error variance is assumed. Compared to single-family analyses, power can be improved up to fourfold with multi-family analyses. The accuracy and precision of QTL location estimates are also substantially improved. With small family sizes, the multi-family, multi-trait analyses reduce substantially, but not totally remove, biases in QTL effect estimates. In situations where multiple QTL alleles are segregating the multi-family analysis will average out the effects of the different QTL alleles.

Psychopathology following trauma: The role of subjective experience

Background: The DSM-IV definition of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) widened the stressor criterion to include objective (A1) and subjective (A2) components. The prevalence of Criterion A2, and its association with traumatic memory and psychopathology, was examined in a large community sample. Method: The presence of Criterion A2 and traumatic memories, as well as DSM-IV anxiety, affective and substance use disorders, were examined in a community sample of 6104 adults with a history of traumatic exposure. Results: Most individuals met Criterion A2 (76%), with higher prevalence in females (81%) than males (69%). A2 was more common following certain traumas (such as assaultive violence). Excluding those people with PTSD, prevalence of most psychiatric disorders was higher in those who met Criterion A2 than in those who only met Criterion A1. Only 3% of those who did not meet A2 went on to suffer persistent traumatic memories. The prevalence of psychiatric disorders was higher in those with A2 and traumatic memories than in those with A2 and no traumatic memories. Limitations: The retrospective nature of the data raises the potential for reporting biases. The data set allowed only one of several possible predictors of posttraumatic adjustment to be examined and only 12-month, and not lifetime, prevalence of psychiatric conditions was available. Conclusions: The experience of powerful emotions at the time of traumatic exposure is common and is associated with increased prevalence not only of PTSD, but also of a range of other psychiatric conditions. Traumatic memories may mediate this association. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The return to schooling: Estimates from a sample of young Australian twins

This study uses a sample of young Australian twins to examine whether the findings reported in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp.1157-73] and [Miller, P.W., Mulvey, C and Martin, N., (1994). 'What Do Twins Studies Tell Us About the Economic Returns to Education?: A Comparison of Australian and US Findings', Western Australian Labour Market Research Centre Discussion Paper 94/4] are robust to choice of sample and dependent variable. The economic return to schooling in Australia is between 5 and 7 percent when account is taken of genetic and family effects using either fixed-effects models or the selection effects model of Ashenfelter and Krueger. Given the similarity of the findings in this and in related studies, it would appear that the models applied by [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73] are robust. Moreover, viewing the OLS and IV estimators as lower and upper bounds in the manner of [Black, Dan A., Berger, Mark C., and Scott, Frank C., (2000). 'Bounding Parameter Estimates with Nonclassical Measurement Error', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No.451, pp.739-748], it is shown that the bounds on the return to schooling in Australia are much tighter than in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73], and the return is bounded at a much lower level than in the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder across developmental trajectory: Cognitive processing of threat in children, adolescents and adults

Background. While the cognitive theory of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is one of the most widely accepted accounts of the maintenance of the disorder in adults, no study to date has systematically evaluated the theory across children, adolescence and adults with OCD. Method. This paper investigated developmental differences in the cognitive processing of threat in a sample of children, adolescents and adults with OCD. Using an idiographic assessment approach, as well as self-report questionnaires, this study evaluated cognitive appraisals of responsibility, probability, severity, thought-action fusion (TAF), thought-suppression, self-doubt and cognitive control. It was hypothesised that there would be age related differences in reported responsibility for harm, probability of harm, severity of harm, thought suppression, TAR self-doubt and cognitive control. Results. Results of this study demonstrated that children with OCD reported experiencing fewer intrusive thoughts, which were less distressing and less uncontrollable than those experienced by adolescents and adults with OCD. Furthermore, responsibility attitudes, probability biases and thought suppression strategies were higher in adolescents and adults with OCD. Cognitive processes of TAF, perceived severity of harm, self-doubt and cognitive control were found to be comparable across age groups. Conclusions. These results suggest that the current cognitive theory of OCD needs to address developmental differences in the cognitive processing of threat. Furthermore, for a developmentally sensitive theory of OCD, further investigation is warranted into other possible age related maintenance factors. Implications of this investigation and directions for future research are discussed.