The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model : an Australian case study

Carrying capacity assessments model a population’s potential self-sufficiency. A crucial first step in the development of such modelling is to examine the basic resource-based parameters defining the population’s production and consumption habits. These parameters include basic human needs such as food, water, shelter and energy together with climatic, environmental and behavioural characteristics. Each of these parameters imparts land-usage requirements in different ways and varied degrees so their incorporation into carrying capacity modelling also differs. Given that the availability and values of production parameters may differ between locations, no two carrying capacity models are likely to be exactly alike. However, the essential parameters themselves can remain consistent so one example, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard, is offered as a case study to highlight one way in which these parameters are utilised. While examples exist of findings made from carrying capacity assessment modelling, to date, guidelines for replication of such studies in other regions and scales have largely been overlooked. This paper addresses such shortcomings by describing a process for the inclusion and calibration of the most important resource-based parameters in a way that could be repeated elsewhere.

Monitoring the impacts of trade agreements on food environments

The liberalization of international trade and foreign direct investment through multilateral, regional and bilateral agreements has had profound implications for the structure and nature of food systems, and therefore, for the availability, nutritional quality, accessibility, price and promotion of foods in different locations. Public health attention has only relatively recently turned to the links between trade and investment agreements, diets and health, and there is currently no systematic monitoring of this area. This paper reviews the available evidence on the links between trade agreements, food environments and diets from an obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) perspective. Based on the key issues identified through the review, the paper outlines an approach for monitoring the potential impact of trade agreements on food environments and obesity/NCD risks. The proposed monitoring approach encompasses a set of guiding principles, recommended procedures for data collection and analysis, and quantifiable ‘minimal’, ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ measurement indicators to be tailored to national priorities, capacity and resources. Formal risk assessment processes of existing and evolving trade and investment agreements, which focus on their impacts on food environments will help inform the development of healthy trade policy, strengthen domestic nutrition and health policy space and ultimately protect population nutrition.

Monitoring and benchmarking population diet quality globally : a step-wise approach

INFORMAS (International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support) aims to monitor and benchmark the healthiness of food environments globally. In order to assess the impact of food environments on population diets, it is necessary to monitor population diet quality between countries and over time. This paper reviews existing data sources suitable for monitoring population diet quality, and assesses their strengths and limitations. A step-wise framework is then proposed for monitoring population diet quality. Food balance sheets (FBaS), household budget and expenditure surveys (HBES) and food intake surveys are all suitable methods for assessing population diet quality. In the proposed ‘minimal’ approach, national trends of food and energy availability can be explored using FBaS. In the ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ approaches, the dietary share of ultra-processed products is measured as an indicator of energy-dense, nutrient-poor diets using HBES and food intake surveys, respectively. In addition, it is proposed that pre-defined diet quality indices are used to score diets, and some of those have been designed for application within all three monitoring approaches. However, in order to enhance the value of global efforts to monitor diet quality, data collection methods and diet quality indicators need further development work.

The increasing cost of healthy food

OBJECTIVE: To assess changes in the cost and availability of a standard basket of healthy food items (the Healthy Food Access Basket [HFAB]) in Queensland. METHODS: Analysis of five cross-sectional surveys (1998, 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006) describes changes over time. Eighty-nine stores in five remoteness categories were surveyed during May 2006. For the first time a sampling framework based on randomisation of towns throughout the state was applied and the survey was conducted by Queensland Treasury. RESULTS: Compared with the costs in major cities, in 2006 the mean cost of the HFAB was $107.81 (24.2%) higher in very remote stores in Queensland, but $145.57 (32.6%) higher in stores more than 2,000 kilometres from Brisbane. Over six years the cost of the HFAB has increased by around 50% ($148.87) across Queensland and, where data was available, by more than the cost of less healthy alternatives. The Consumer Price Index for food in Brisbane increased by 32.5% over the same period. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Australians, no matter where they live, need access to affordable, healthy food. Issues of food security in the face of rising food costs are of concern particularly in the current global economic downturn. There is an urgent need to nationally monitor, but also sustainably address the factors affecting the price of healthy foods, particularly for vulnerable groups who suffer a disproportionate burden of poor health.

Bioavailability study of oral and intravenous OGT 719, a novel nucleoside analogue with preferential activity in the liver

Purpose: Although oral fluoropyrimidine pro-drugs are increasingly being administered in preference to intravenous nucleoside analogues in cancer chemotherapy, their activation in malignant liver tissue may be insufficient. OGT 719 (1-galactopyranosyl-5-fluorouracil) is a novel nucleoside analogue, preferentially localized in hepatocytes and hepatoma cells via the asialoglycoprotein receptor. The aim of this study was to assess the systemic bioavailability of this rationally designed drug in 16 patients with advanced solid cancers. Method: Crossover pharmacokinetic study of oral (400 or 800 mg) and intravenous (250 mg/m 2) OGT 719. Results: Linear pharmacokinetics and oral bioavailability of approximately 25% were observed at the dose levels used in this study. Like other 5-FU prodrugs, considerable interpatient variability was observed in bioavailability following oral dosing. The mean half-life for oral doses was 4 h. OGT 719 was well tolerated. No objective tumour responses were demonstrated. Conclusion: The systemic bioavailability and half-life of oral OGT 719 are sufficient to merit dose escalation studies with frequent daily dosing. Subsequent efficacy studies should be performed in patients with primary and secondary liver malignancies.

Bioavailability study of oral and intravenous OGT 719, a novel nucleoside analogue with preferential activity in the liver

Purpose: Although oral fluoropyrimidine pro-drugs are increasingly being administered in preference to intravenous nucleoside analogues in cancer chemotherapy, their activation in malignant liver tissue may be insufficient. OGT 719 (1-galactopyranosyl-5-fluorouracil) is a novel nucleoside analogue, preferentially localized in hepatocytes and hepatoma cells via the asialoglycoprotein receptor. The aim of this study was to assess the systemic bioavailability of this rationally designed drug in 16 patients with advanced solid cancers. Method: Crossover pharmacokinetic study of oral (400 or 800 mg) and intravenous (250 mg/m 2) OGT 719. Results: Linear pharmacokinetics and oral bioavailability of approximately 25% were observed at the dose levels used in this study. Like other 5-FU prodrugs, considerable interpatient variability was observed in bioavailability following oral dosing. The mean half-life for oral doses was 4 h. OGT 719 was well tolerated. No objective tumour responses were demonstrated. Conclusion: The systemic bioavailability and half-life of oral OGT 719 are sufficient to merit dose escalation studies with frequent daily dosing. Subsequent efficacy studies should be performed in patients with primary and secondary liver malignancies.

The increasing cost of the basic foods required to promote health in Queensland

Objective: To assess changes in the cost and availability of a standard basket of healthy food items (the Healthy Food Access Basket [HFAB]) in Queensland over time. Design and participants: A series of four cross-sectional surveys (in 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2004) describing the cost and availability of foods in the HFAB over time. In the latest survey, 97 Queensland food stores across the five Australian Bureau of Statistics remoteness categories were compared. Main outcome measures: Cost comparisons for HFAB items by remoteness category for the 97 stores surveyed in 2004; changes in cost and availability of foods in the 81 stores surveyed since 2000; comparisons of food prices in the 56 stores surveyed in 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2004. Results: In 2004, the Queensland mean cost of the HFAB was $395.28 a fortnight. The cost of the HFAB was 29.6%($113.89) higher in “very remote” areas than in “major cities” (P<0.001). Between 2001 and 2004, the Queensland mean cost of the HFAB increased by 14.0% ($48.45), while in very remote areas the cost increased by 18.0% ($76.93) (P<0.001). Since 2000, the annualised per cent increase in cost of the HFAB has been higher than the increase in Consumer Price Index for food in Brisbane. The cost of healthy foods has risen more than the cost of some less nutritious foods, so that the latter are now relatively more affordable. Conclusions: Consumers, particularly those in very remote locations, need to pay substantially more for basic healthy foods than they did a few years ago. Higher prices are likely to be a barrier to good health among people of low socioeconomic status and other vulnerable groups. Interventions to make basic healthy food affordable and accessible to all would help reduce the high burden of chronic disease.

Creating efficiencies in teaching : where are the right resources when you need them?

Early career engineering academics are encouraged to join and contribute to established research groups at the leading edge of their discipline. This is often facilitated by various staff development and support programs. Given that academics are often appointed primarily on the basis of their research skills and outputs, such an approach is justified and is likely to result in advancing the individual academic’s career. It also enhances their capacity to attract competitive research funding, while contributing to the overall research performance of their institution, with further potential for an increased share of government funding. In contrast, there is much less clarity of direction or availability of support mechanisms for those academics in their role as teachers. Following a general induction to teaching and learning at their institution, they would commonly think about preparing some lecture materials, whether for delivery in a face-to-face or on-line modality. Typically they would look for new references and textbooks to act as a guide for preparing the content. They would probably find out how the course has been taught before, and what laboratory facilities and experiments have been used. In all of these and other related tasks, the majority of newly appointed academics are guided strongly by their own experiences as students, rather than any firm knowledge of pedagogical principles. At a time of increased demands on academics’ time, and high expectations of performance and productivity in both research and teaching, it is essential to examine possible actions to support academics in enhancing their teaching performance in effective and efficient ways. Many resources have been produced over the years in engineering schools around the world, with very high intellectual and monetary costs. In Australia, the last few years have seen a surge in the number of ALTC/OLT projects and fellowships addressing a range of engineering education issues and providing many resources. There are concerns however regarding the extent to which these resources are being effectively utilised. Why are academics still re-inventing the wheel and creating their own version of teaching resources and pedagogical practice? Why do they spend so much of their precious time in such an inefficient way? A symposium examining the above issues was conducted at the AAEE2012 conference, and some pointers to possible responses to the above questions were obtained. These are explored in this paper and supplemented by the responses to a survey of a group of engineering education leaders on some of the aspects of these research questions. The outcomes of the workshop and survey results have been analysed in view of the literature and the ALTC/OLT sponsored learning and teaching projects and resources. Other factors are discussed, including how such resources can be found, how their quality might be evaluated, and how assessment may be appropriately incorporated, again using readily available resources. This study found a strong resonance between resources reuse with work on technology acceptance (Davis, 1989), suggesting that technology adoption models could be used to encourage resource sharing. Efficient use of outstanding learning materials is an enabling approach. The paper provides some insights on the factors affecting the re-use of available resources, and makes some recommendations and suggestions on how the issue of resources re-use might be incorporated in the process of applying and completing engineering education projects.

The operating schedule for battery energy storage companies in electricity market

This paper presents a series of operating schedules for Battery Energy Storage Companies (BESC) to provide peak shaving and spinning reserve services in the electricity markets under increasing wind penetration. As individual market participants, BESC can bid in ancillary services markets in an Independent System Operator (ISO) and contribute towards frequency and voltage support in the grid. Recent development in batteries technologies and availability of the day-ahead spot market prices would make BESC economically feasible. Profit maximization of BESC is achieved by determining the optimum capacity of Energy Storage Systems (ESS) required for meeting spinning reserve requirements as well as peak shaving. Historic spot market prices and frequency deviations from Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO) are used for numerical simulations and the economic benefits of BESC is considered reflecting various aspects in Australia’s National Electricity Markets (NEM).

The Internet of Things : new digital capital in the hands of customers

The Internet of Things facilitates the identification, digitization, and control of physical objects. However, it is the availability of cost effective sensors, mobile smart devices, scalable cloud infrastructure, and advanced analytics that have consumerized the Internet of Things. The accessibility of digital representations of things has transformative potential and provides entire new affordances for organizations and their ecosystems across most industries.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Assessing the construct validity and reliability of the parental perception on antibiotics (PAPA) scales

Background: The overuse of antibiotics is becoming an increasing concern. Antibiotic resistance, which increases both the burden of disease, and the cost of health services, is perhaps the most profound impact of antibiotics overuse. Attempts have been made to develop instruments to measure the psychosocial constructs underlying antibiotics use, however, none of these instruments have undergone thorough psychometric validation. This study evaluates the psychometric properties of the Parental Perceptions on Antibiotics (PAPA) scales. The PAPA scales attempt to measure the factors influencing parental use of antibiotics in children. Methods: 1111 parents of children younger than 12 years old were recruited from primary schools’ parental meetings in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia from September 2012 to January 2013. The structure of the PAPA instrument was validated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) with measurement model fit evaluated using the raw and scaled χ2, Goodness of Fit Index, and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation. Results: A five-factor model was confirmed with the model showing good fit. Constructs in the model include: Knowledge and Beliefs, Behaviors, Sources of information, Adherence, and Awareness about antibiotics resistance. The instrument was shown to have good internal consistency, and good discriminant and convergent validity. Conclusion: The availability of an instrument able to measure the psychosocial factors underlying antibiotics usage allows the risk factors underlying antibiotic use and overuse to now be investigated.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Can Business Continuity Management Create Reliability in Airports? (Issues from Theory into Practice)

The advances made within the aviation industry over the past several decades have significantly improved the availability, affordability and convenience of air travel and have been greatly beneficial in both social and economic terms. Air transport has developed into an irreplaceable service being relied on by millions of people each day and as such airports have become critical elements of national infrastructure to facilitate the movement of people and goods. As components of critical infrastructure (CI), airports are integral parts of a national economy supporting regional as well as national trade, commercial activity and employment. Therefore, any disruption or crisis which impacts the continuity of operations at airports can have significant negative consequences for the airport as a business, for the local economy and other nodes of transport infrastructure as well as for society. Due to the highly dynamic and volatile environment in which airports operate in, the aviation industry has faced many different challenges over the years ranging from terrorist attacks such as September 11, to health crises such as the SARS epidemic to system breakdowns such as the recent computer system outage at Virgin Blue Airlines in Australia. All these events have highlighted the vulnerability of airport systems to a range of disturbances as well as the gravity and widespread impact of any kind of discontinuity in airport functions. Such incidents thus emphasise the need for increasing resilience and reliability of airports and ensuring business continuity in the event of a crisis...