Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Influence of climate on clinical diagnostic dry eye tests: pilot study

Purpose. To analyze dry eye disease (DED) tests and their consistency in similar nonsymptomatic population samples living in two geographic locations with different climates (Continental vs. Atlantic). Methods. This is a pilot study including 14 nonsymptomatic residents from Valladolid (Continental climate, Spain) and 14 sex-matched and similarly aged residents from Braga (Atlantic climate, Portugal); they were assessed during the same season (spring) of two consecutive years. Phenol red thread test, conjunctival hyperemia, fluorescein tear breakup time, corneal and conjunctival staining, and Schirmer test were evaluated on three different consecutive visits. Reliability was assessed using the intraclass correlation coefficient and weighted kappa (J) coefficient for quantitative and ordinal variables, respectively. Results. Fourteen subjects were recruited in each city with a mean (TSD) age of 63.0 (T1.7) and 59.1 (T0.9) years (p = 0.08) in Valladolid and Braga, respectively. Intraclass correlation coefficient and J values of the tests performed were below 0.69 and 0.61, respectively, for both samples, thus showing moderate to poor reliability. Subsequently, comparisons were made between the results corresponding to the middle and higher outdoor relative humidity (RH) visit in each location as there were no differences in mean temperature (p Q 0.75) despite RH values significantly differing (p e 0.005). Significant (p e 0.05) differences were observed between Valladolid and Braga samples on tear breakup time (middle RH visit, 2.76 T 0.60 vs. 5.26 T 0.64 seconds; higher RH visit, 2.61 T 0.32 vs. 5.78 T 0.88 seconds) and corneal (middle RH, 0.64 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.10; higher RH, 0.60 T 0.22 vs. 0.0 T 0.0) and conjunctival staining (middle RH, 0.61 T 0.17 vs. 0.14 T 0.08; higher RH, 0.57 T 0.15 vs. 0.18 T 0.09). Conclusions. This pilot study provides initial evidence to support that DED test outcomes assessing the ocular surface integrity and tear stability are climate dependent. Future large-sample studies should support these outcomes also in DED patients. This knowledge is fundamental for multicenter clinical trials. Lack of consistency in diagnostic clinical tests for DED was also corroborated. (Optom Vis Sci 2015;92:e284Ye289)

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

Time-variations of equivalent water heights'from Grace Mission and in-situ river stages in the Amazon basin

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission is dedicated to measuring temporal variations of the Earth's gravity field. In this study, the Stokes coefficients made available by Groupe de Recherche en Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS) at a 10-day interval were converted into equivalent water height (EWH) for a ~4-year period in the Amazon basin (from July-2002 to May-2006). The seasonal amplitudes of EWH signal are the largest on the surface of Earth and reach ~ 1250mm at that basin's center. Error budget represents ~130 mm of EWH, including formal errors on Stokes coefficient, leakage errors (12 ~ 21 mm) and spectrum truncation (10 ~ 15 mm). Comparison between in situ river level time series measured at 233 ground-based hydrometric stations (HS) in the Amazon basin and vertically-integrated EWH derived from GRACE is carried out in this paper. Although EWH and HS measure different water bodies, in most of the cases a high correlation (up to ~80%) is detected between the HS series and EWH series at the same site. This correlation allows adjusting linear relationships between in situ and GRACE-based series for the major tributaries of the Amazon river. The regression coefficients decrease from up to down stream along the rivers reaching the theoretical value 1 at the Amazon's mouth in the Atlantic Ocean. The variation of the regression coefficients versus the distance from estuary is analysed for the largest rivers in the basin. In a second step, a classification of the proportionality between in situ and GRACE time-series is proposed.

A VEP study in sleeping and awake one-month-old infants and its relation with social behavior

With the present study we aimed to analyze the relationship between infants' behavior and their visual evoked-potential (VEPs) response. Specifically, we want to verify differences regarding the VEP response in sleeping and awake infants and if an association between VEP components, in both groups, with neurobehavioral outcome could be identified. To do so, thirty-two full-term and healthy infants, approximately 1-month of age, were assessed through a VEP unpatterned flashlight stimuli paradigm, offered in two different intensities, and were assessed using a neurobehavioral scale. However, only 18 infants have both assessments, and therefore, these is the total included in both analysis. Infants displayed a mature neurobehavioral outcome, expected for their age. We observed that P2 and N3 components were present in both sleeping and awake infants. Differences between intensities were found regarding the P2 amplitude, but only in awake infants. Regression analysis showed that N3 amplitude predicted an adequate social interactive and internal regulatory behavior in infants who were awake during the stimuli presentation. Taking into account that social orientation and regulatory behaviors are fundamental keys for social-like behavior in 1-month-old infants, this study provides an important approach for assessing physiological biomarkers (VEPs) and its relation with social behavior, very early in postnatal development. Moreover, we evidence the importance of the infant's state when studying differences regarding visual threshold processing and its association with behavioral outcome.

Study on the degradation of natural fiber geotextiles

Current societal challenges increasingly demand the need to seek for efficient and sustainable solutions to daily problems. Construction, as a result of its activity, is one of the main responsible industry for the exploitation of resources and greenhouse gas emissions. In this way, several research works are being undertaken to change some of the current practices. This paper presents the work being done at University of Minho to study de degradation of natural fibers when used as a sustainable solution for soil reinforcement. Jute and sisal fibrous structures (0º/90º) were studied in terms of their degradation over time, when incorporated into soil and when subject to accelerated aging tests in a QUV weathering test equipment. Results show that the process of biodegradation of natural fibers is clearly accelerated by the action of temperature, moisture and solar radiation, explaining further degradation of jute and sisal fibers when exposed to these factors, although more pronounced in jute fabric structures.

Common symptoms of Nepalese soft contact lens wearers: A pilot study

Aim: To determine the common symptoms in current soft contact lens (CL) wearers and theirassociation with other factors among Nepalese population.Methods: All the current CL wearers who started to wear soft CL in Nepal Eye Hospital between July 2007 and June 2012 were invited for the participation. Frequency of the ten most common symptoms, divided into never, occasionally, frequently and consistent were recorded. Association between degree of symptoms with other factors, e.g. age, gender, profession, cigarette smoking, ethnicity, level of education and duration and wearing modality of CL wear were analyzed.Results: Out of 129 subjects participated in this study, 67% were female; the mean age of the subjects was 23.9 ± 4.3 years. Ninety seven percent of them had at least one symptom occasionally or frequently or consistently. Discomfort was found in 88.4% of the total subjects.Other common symptoms were foreign body sensation in 73.6%, redness in 65.9%, reduced wearing time in 63.6% and dryness in 62.8%. Symptoms were found occasionally in the majority of subjects. Degree of symptoms was not associated with age, gender, profession, education status, ethnicity of subjects and duration or modality of lens wear (p > 0.05) but was positively associated with passive cigarette smoking (p < 0.001).Conclusion: Almost all of the Nepalese soft CL wearers had some types of symptoms at least occasionally. Discomfort was the most common symptom. Degree of symptoms was associated with the passive smoking but not with other factors like age, sex, profession and duration of lens wear.

Prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness in Brazilian community-dwelling older adults with very low levels of schooling, and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle: the Bambuí Health and Ageing Study (BHAS)

OBJECTIVE: Population-based studies on excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in older adults living in less developed countries are scarce. The purpose of this paper was to estimate the prevalence of EDS and its association with sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors in Brazilian community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: The study was carried out in Bambuí, a city in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. EDS was defined as the presence of sleepiness in the last month occurring three or more times per week, with any interference in usual activities. The exploratory variables were: gender, age, skin color, marital status, schooling level, current employment status, religion, recent migration, smoking, binge drinking and physical activities during leisure time. RESULTS: Of 1,742 residents aged > 60 years, 1,514 (86.9%) participated. The prevalence of EDS was 13%. After adjustment for confounders, female gender and low schooling level remained positively and independently associated with EDS. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of EDS in the study population was within the range observed in studies carried out in developed countries. The most impressive finding was the association of EDS with schooling, indicating that even in a population with low levels of schooling, this was an important factor to explain the distribution of EDS.

A five year follow-up study of 11 patients with bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE: To study the long-term follow-up of patients with bipolar disorder (BPD). METHOD: Eleven outpatients with BPD type I were followed up naturalistically for five years at a university teaching hospital. The Clinical Global Impression Scale (BPD version) was used to evaluate the occurrence of affective episodes, and the Strauss-Carpenter Outcome Scale was used to evaluate social and occupational functioning. RESULTS: The majority of patients were symptomatic most of the time, with predominantly depressive episodes. Overall, patients remained euthymic a mean of 47.7% of the time. Despite a low rate of hospitalization, social and occupational functioning was poor in the majority of patients. A poor disease course with respect to work-related functioning was associated with fewer months of euthymia with a longer duration of depressive episodes. The total number of months of euthymia negatively correlated with the patient's age and disease duration. CONCLUSION: Despite the small sample size, the present findings appear to corroborate previous studies on the evolution of BPD. Most of the patients had a poor disease course, with long symptomatic periods, particularly depressive episodes, and significantly impaired social and occupational functioning.

The impact of depression on survival of Parkinson's disease patients: a five-year study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the survival rate in a cohort of Parkinson's disease patients with and without depression. METHODS: A total of 53 Parkinson's disease subjects were followed up from 2003-2008 and 21 were diagnosed as depressed. Mean time of follow up was 3.8 (SD 95% = 1.5) years for all the sample and there was no significant difference in mean time of follow up between depressed and nondepressed Parkinson's disease patients. Survival curves rates were fitted using the Kaplan-Meier method. In order to compare survival probabilities according to the selected covariables the Log-Rank test was used. Multivariate analysis with Cox regression was performed aiming at estimating the effect of predictive covariables on the survival. RESULTS: The cumulative global survival of this sample was 83% with nine deaths at the end of the study - five in the depressed and four in the nondepressed group, and 55.6% died in the first year of observation, and none died at the fourth and fifth year of follow up. CONCLUSION: Our finding point toward incremental death risk in depressed Parkinson's disease patients.

Historical analysis of the Brazilian cervical cancer screening program from 2006 to 2013: a time for reflection

BACKGROUND: The Cervical Cancer Database of the Brazilian National Health Service (SISCOLO) contains information regarding all cervical cytological tests and, if properly explored, can be used as a tool for monitoring and managing the cervical cancer screening program. The aim of this study was to perform a historical analysis of the cervical cancer screening program in Brazil from 2006 to 2013. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data necessary to calculate quality indicators were obtained from the SISCOLO, a Brazilian health system tool. Joinpoint analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change. RESULTS: We observed important trends showing decreased rates of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) and an increased rate of rejected exams from 2009 to 2013. The index of positivity was maintained at levels below those indicated by international standards; very low frequencies of unsatisfactory cases were observed over the study period, which partially contradicts the low rate of positive cases. The number of positive cytological diagnoses was below that expected, considering that developed countries with low frequencies of cervical cancer detect more lesions annually. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of indicators from 2006 to 2013 suggests that actions must be taken to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control in Brazil.

Atuação dos enfermeiros na emergência pré-hospitalar em situações de paragem cárdio-respiratória

Dissertação de mestrado em Enfermagem da Pessoa em Situação Crítica

Investigations on relational control of time perception

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Básica

Brazilian multicenter study on efficacy and tolerability of trandolapril in mild-to-moderate essential arterial hypertension. EMBATHE substudy with ambulatory blood pressure monitoring

OBJECTIVE: A double-blind, placebo-controlled multicenter study involving 34 centers from different Brazilian regions was performed to evaluate the antihypertensive efficacy and tolerability of trandolapril, an angiotensin I converting enzyme inhibitor, in the treatment of mild-to-moderate systemic arterial hypertension. METHODS: Of 262 patients enrolled in this study, 127 were treated with trandolapril 2 mg/day for 8 consecutive weeks, and the remaining 135 patients received placebo for the same period of time. Reduction in blood pressure (BP) and the occurrence of adverse events during this period were evaluated in both groups. RESULTS: Significant reductions in both systolic and diastolic pressures were observed in patients treated with trandolapril when compared with those on placebo. Antihypertensive efficacy was achieved in 57.5% of the patients on trandolapril and in 42% of these normal values of BP were obtained. The efficacy of trandolapril was similar in all centers, regardless of the area of the country. In a subset of 30 patients who underwent ABPM, responders showed a significant hypotensive effect to trandolapril throughout the 24 hour day. The adverse event profile was similar in both trandolapril and placebo groups. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate, for the first time in a large group of hypertensive patients from different regions in Brazil, good efficacy and tolerability of trandolapril during treatment of mild-to-moderate essential systemic hypertension.