An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

The coastal restinga vegetation of Pará, Brazilian Amazon: a synthesis

Este artigo apresenta uma revisão dos estudos (alguns não publicados) da vegetação de restinga da costa do Estado do Pará, na região norte do Brasil. Ao todo foram registradas 411 espécies de plantas vasculares, sendo as famílias Fabaceae, Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Rubiaceae e Myrtaceae as mais ricas em espécies. Dentre as espécies da restinga, 48% são ervas terrestres, 39% são palmeiras, árvores e arbustos, sendo o restante constituído por lianas e epífitas. As espécies são amplamente distribuídas ocorrendo inclusive em ambientes costeiros de outras regiões brasileiras, como a região sudeste, assim como em ambientes não costeiros da Amazônia. Apenas duas espécies parecem ser exclusivamente costeiras, já outras espécies parecem ter preferência por ambientes de solo arenoso em geral. Diferentes associações de plantas são descritas e agrupadas em diferentes tipos de "formações vegetais" associadas à certos habitats, mas os dados da literatura não permitem identificar com precisão tais associações em toda a costa. Análises estatísticas mostraram que a distribuição das espécies ao longo da costa não apresentam nenhum padrão de agrupamento. Mudanças na composição da vegetação de restinga nas estações seca e chuvosa são mais provavelmente ligadas à variação do nível do lençol freático. As florestas de restinga são, em sua maioria, abertas e de pequeno porte. Entre as espécies arbóreas dominantes estão: Humiria balsamifera Aubl., Pouteria ramiflora (Mart.) Radlk., Anacardium occidentale L., Byrsonima crassifolia (L.) Kunth e Tapirira guianensis Aubl.

Heterogeneous ethnic distribution of the factor V leiden mutation

Inherited resistance to activated protein C caused by the factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation is the most common genetic cause of venous thrombosis yet described, being found in 20-60% of patients with venous thrombophilia. A relationship between the FVL mutation and an increased predisposition to arterial thrombosis in young women was recently reported. We assessed the prevalence of the FVL mutation in 440 individuals (880 chromosomes) belonging to four different ethnic groups: Caucasians, African Blacks, Asians and Amerindians. PCR amplification followed by MnlI digestion was employed to define the genotype. The FVL mutation was found in a heterozygous state in four out of 152 Whites (2.6%), one out of 151 Amerindians (0.6%), and was absent among 97 African Blacks and 40 Asians. Our results confirm that FVL has a heterogeneous distribution in different human populations, a fact that may contribute to geographic and ethnic differences in the prevalence of thrombotic diseases. In addition, these data may be helpful in decisions regarding the usefulness of screening for the FVL mutation in subjects at risk for thrombosis.

Nematode parasites of Pescada Gó, Macrodon ancylodon Bloch and Schneider, 1801 (Osteichthyes, Sciaenidae), from Vila dos Pescadores, Bragança-PA, Brazil

The objective of this work was to evaluate the host/parasite relationship of nematodes in Macrodon ancylodon. Ninety seven fishes (50 in wet season and 47 in dry season) were weighed (167.1 ± 109.9g) and measured (28.3 ± 5.2cm). Only twelve specimens were not infected by any parasites and the prevalence of infection was 87.6%. The highest prevalence values were observed in August and September (dry season, 100%). The stomach was the most infected organ during the whole months (prevalence of 64.2%, and mean intensity of 4.6±7.8 parasites/fish), and the medium intestine showed the lowest infection (prevalence 27.3% and mean intensity 2.5±2.1 parasites/fish). The nematodes were identified as Raphidascaris sp., Goezia sp. and Cucullanus sp. Only the male and juvenile fishes could be presented different values of infection according to rainfall, being more infected in August to October. The female hosts presented higher values of abundance and mean intensity of infection (p<0.01) throughout the year.

Gastrintestinal helminths Of Cerdocyon thous (Linnaeus, 1766-Smith, 1839) from the caatinga area of the Paraiba State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Surface-sediment and hermit-crab contamination by butyltins in southeastern Atlantic estuaries after ban of TBT-based antifouling paints

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Interindividual variations in fruit preferences of the yellow-shouldered bat Sturnira lilium (Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) in a cafeteria experiment

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Synthesis and antimycobacterial activity of new pyrazolate-bridged dinuclear complexes of the type [Pd(mu-L)(N-3)(PPh3)](2) (PPh3 = triphenylphosphine; L = pyrazolates)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Obesogenic environment by excess of dietary fats in different phases of development reduces spermatic efficiency of wistar rats at adulthood: correlations with metabolic status

This study compares the impact of obesogenic environment (OE) in six different periods of development on sperm parameters and the testicular structure of adult rats and their correlations with sex steroid and metabolic scenario. Wistar rats were exposed to OE during gestation (O1), during gestation/lactation (O2), from weaning to adulthood (O3), from lactation to adulthood (O4), from gestation to sexual maturity (O5), and after sexual maturation (O6). OE was induced by a 20% fat diet, and control groups were fed a balanced diet (4% fat). Serum leptin levels and adiposity index indicate that all groups were obese, except for O1. Three progressive levels of impaired metabolic status were observed: O1 presented insulin resistance, O2 were insulin resistant and obese, and groups O3, O4, and O5 were insulin resistant, obese, and diabetic. These three levels of metabolic damage were proportional to the increase of leptin and decreased circulating testosterone. The impairment in the daily sperm production (DSP) paralleled these three levels of metabolic and hormonal damage being marginal in O1, increasing in O2, and being higher in groups O3, O4, O5, and O6. None of the OE periods affected the sperm transit time in the epididymis, and the lower sperm reserves were caused mainly by impaired DSP. In conclusion, OE during sexual maturation markedly reduces the DSP at adulthood in the rat. A severe reduction in the DSP also occurs in OE exposure during gestation/lactation but not in gestation, indicating that breast-feeding is a critical period for spermatogenic impairment under obesogenic conditions.

Interactions between restorative dentistry and periodontics: preparation and cementation of an onlay in Empress (Part III)

The relentless pursuit by cosmetic dentistry brought the evolution of materials ceramics. The IPS-Empress system was upgrading of indirect restorations based on lithium disilicate. The ceramic restoration posterior allow a new esthetic approach due to its translucency and resistance without any weakening of the remaining dental element, being an option more conservative when compared to conventional prosthetic restorations.

The symbology of the sea in Lygia Bojunga Nunes's work: a reflection on utopian and dystopian framing

The ambivalent image of the sea is recurrent in Bojunga Nunes’s work. It receives a lot of symbolic meanings in her production, being sometimes a positive and sometimes a negative element. Thus, the sea is used in a utopic way, as a place for pleasure and leisure, and in a dystopic way, as scenery of a rite of passage, which includes the pain and suffering, part of the rite of passage that characterizes the bildungsromans. So, if in some texts the sea assumes a utopic character, being a place of snuggle, security, the ideal to reach, in others it is represented as dystopic, a place of distress, asphyxia and death. In this text we will study the hypothesis that, even in its dark symbolic meaning, in the author’s work the sea is an element of reflection and revelation. Thereby, it assumes metaphorically a sense of magnification of the reader’s expectative, being an element of emancipation. The objective of this text is to present a reflection on the sea’s symbolism on the mentioned texts and its importance for the reader’s formation.

Effect of short training on vaginal fluid microscopy (wet mount) learning

Objective: Is it feasible to learn the basics of wet mount microscopy of vaginal fluid in 10 hours?Materials and Methods: This is a pilot project wherein 6 students with different grades of education were invited for being tested on their ability to read wet mount microscopic slides before and after 10 hours of hands-on training. Microscopy was performed according to a standard protocol (Femicare, Tienen, Belgium). Before and after training, all students had to evaluate a different set of 50 digital slides. Different diagnoses and microscopic patterns had to be scored. kappa indices were calculated compared with the expert reading. Results: All readers improved their mean scores significantly, especially for the most important types of altered flora (p < .0001). The mean increase in reading concordance (kappa from 0.64 to 0.75) of 1 student with a solid previous experience with microscopy did not reach statistical significance, but the remaining 5 students all improved their scores from poor performance (all kappa < 0.20) to moderate (kappa = 0.53, n = 1) to good (kappa > 0.61, n = 4) concordance. Reading quality improved and reached fair to good concordance on all microscopic items studied, except for the detection of parabasal cells and cytolytic flora. Conclusions: Although further improvement is still possible, a short training course of 10 hours enables vast improvement on wet mount microscopy accuracy and results in fair to good concordance of the most important variables of the vaginal flora compared to a reference reader.

General characterization of Tityus fasciolatus scorpion venom. Molecular identification of toxins and localization of linear B-cell epitopes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Salmonella serovars in laying hen flocks and commercial table eggs from a region of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)