Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.

Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

Mercury presence and speciation in the South Atlantic Ocean along the 40°S transect

Mercury (Hg) natural biogeochemical cycle is complex and a significant portion of biological and chemical transformation occurs in the marine environment. To better understand the presence and abundance of Hg species in the remote ocean regions, waters of South Atlantic Ocean along 40°S parallel were investigated during UK-GEOTRACES cruise GA10. Total mercury (THg), methylated mercury (MeHg), and dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM) concentrations were determined. The concentrations were very low in the range of pg/L (femtomolar). All Hg species had higher concentration in western than in eastern basin. THg did not appear to be a useful geotracer. Elevated methylated Hg species were commonly associated with low-oxygen water masses and occasionally with peaks of chlorophyll a, both involved with carbon (re)cycling. The overall highest MeHg concentrations were observed in themixed layer (500m) and in the vicinity of the Gough Island. Conversely, DGM concentrations showed distinct layering and differed between the water masses in a nutrient-like manner. DGM was lowest at surface, indicating degassing to the atmosphere, and was highest in the Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, where the oxygen concentration was lowest. DGM increased also in Antarctic Bottom Water. At one station, dimethylmercury was determined and showed increase in region with lowest oxygen saturation. Altogether, our data indicate that the South Atlantic Ocean could be a source of Hg to the atmosphere and that its biogeochemical transformations depend primarily upon carbon cycling and are thereby additionally prone to global ocean change.

Brassica oleracea L. distribution and ecology in the Iberian atlantic coasts

The distribution and ecology of Brassica oleracea in the atlantic coasts of Iberian Peninsule are studied. A new association or nitrified maritime cliffs is described: Crithmo-Brassicetum oleraceae. This community has been included in the Alliance Crithmo-Armerion due to the high presence of halophitic species.

Differential lifetime success and performance of native and non-native Atlantic salmon examined under communal natural conditions.

The lifetime success and performance characteristics of communally reared offspring of wild native Burrishoole (native), ranched native (ranched) and non-native (non-native) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from the adjacent Owenmore River were compared. Non-native year parr showed a substantial downstream migration, which was not shown by native and ranched parr. This appears to have been an active migration rather than competitive displacement and may reflect an adaptation to environmental or physiographic conditions within the Owenmore River catchment where the main nursery habitat is downstream of the spawning area. There were no differences between native and ranched in smolt output or adult return. Both of these measures, however, were significantly lower for the non-native group. A greater proportion of the non-native Atlantic salmon was taken in the coastal drift nets compared to the return to the Burrishoole system, probably as a result of the greater size of the non-native fish. The overall lifetime success of the non-native group, from fertilized egg to returning adult, was some 35% of native and ranched. The ranched group showed a significantly greater male parr maturity, a greater proportion of 1+ year smolts, and differences in sex ratio and timing of freshwater entry of returning adults compared to native, which may have fitness implications under specific conditions.

Fitness reduction and potential extinction of wild populations of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, as a result of interactions with escaped farm salmon.

The high level of escapes from Atlantic salmon farms, up to two million fishes per year in the North Atlantic, has raised concern about the potential impact on wild populations. We report on a twogeneration experiment examining the estimated lifetime successes, relative to wild natives, of farm, F1 and F2 hybrids and BC1 backcrosses to wild and farm salmon. Offspring of farm and hybrids (i.e. all F1 , F2 and BC1 groups) showed reduced survival compared with wild salmon but grew faster as juveniles and displaced wild parr, which as a group were significantly smaller. Where suitable habitat for these emigrant parr is absent, this competition would result in reduced wild smolt production. In the experimental conditions, where emigrants survived downstream, the relative estimated lifetime success ranged from 2% (farm) to 89% (BC1 wild) of that of wild salmon, indicating additive genetic variation for survival . Wild salmon primarily returned to fresh water after one sea winter (1SW) but farm and hybrids produced proportionately more 2SW salmon. However, lower overall survival means that this would result in reduced recruitment despite increased 2SW fecundity. We thus demonstrate that interaction of farm with wild salmon results in lowered fitness, with repeated escapes causing cumulative fitness depression and potentially an extinction vortex in vulnerable populations.

Diatom carbon export enhanced by silicate upwelling in the North East Atlantic.

Diatom carbon export enhanced by silicate upwelling in the northeast Atlantic John T. Allen1,2, Louise Brown1,3, Richard Sanders1, C. Mark Moore1, Alexander Mustard1, Sophie Fielding1, Mike Lucas1, Michel Rixen4, Graham Savidge5, Stephanie Henson1 and Dan Mayor1 Top of pageDiatoms are unicellular or chain-forming phytoplankton that use silicon (Si) in cell wall construction. Their survival during periods of apparent nutrient exhaustion enhances carbon sequestration in frontal regions of the northern North Atlantic. These regions may therefore have a more important role in the 'biological pump' than they have previously been attributed1, but how this is achieved is unknown. Diatom growth depends on silicate availability, in addition to nitrate and phosphate2, 3, but northern Atlantic waters are richer in nitrate than silicate4. Following the spring stratification, diatoms are the first phytoplankton to bloom2, 5. Once silicate is exhausted, diatom blooms subside in a major export event6, 7. Here we show that, with nitrate still available for new production, the diatom bloom is prolonged where there is a periodic supply of new silicate: specifically, diatoms thrive by 'mining' deep-water silicate brought to the surface by an unstable ocean front. The mechanism we present here is not limited to silicate fertilization; similar mechanisms could support nitrate-, phosphate- or iron-limited frontal regions in oceans elsewhere.

The uptake of silica during the spring bloom in the North East Atlantic Ocean

A full understanding of the biogeochemical cycling of silica in the North Atlantic is hampered by a lack of estimates of silica uptake by phytoplankton. We applied the ${}^{32}\text{Si}$ radiotracer incubation technique to determine silica uptake rates at 10 sites during the UK-(Natural Environment Research Council) Faroes-Iceland-Scotland hydrographic and environmental survey (FISHES) cruise in the Northeast Atlantic, May 2001. Column silica uptake rates ranged between 6 and 166 mmol Si $\text{m}^{-2}\ \text{d}^{-1}$; this data set was integrated with concurrent hydrographic, chemical, and primary productivity data to explain these changes in silica uptake in terms of the progress of the spring bloom. In order to interpret data covering a relatively large spatial and temporal scale, we used mean photic zone silica concentration as a proxy time-series measure of diatom bloom progression. Both absolute and specific silica uptake rates were highest at dissolved silica concentrations >2 mmol $\text{L}^{-1}$. Si and C uptake were vertically decoupled at those stations where surface silica was strongly depleted. Absolute primary productivity was not strongly correlated with dissolved silica concentrations, owing to either exhaustion of silica at diatom-dominated stations or to dominance of the community by other phytoplankton. Silica uptake as a function of increased substrate concentration was linear up to 25 $\mu \text{mol}\ \text{L}^{-1}$; we consider some possible reasons for the nonhyperbolic response.