Whither Japan's Economy?

The Japanese economy entered a long recession in spring 1997. Its economic growth has been much lower than in the US and the EU despite large fiscal stimulus packages, a monetary policy which has brought interest rates to zero since 1999, injections of public money to recapitalize banks, and programs of liberalization and deregulation. How could all these policies have failed to bring the Japanese economy back on a sustainable growth path? This paper argues that the failure of Japan's efforts to restore a sound economic environment is the result of having deliberately chosen inappropriate and inadequate monetary and fiscal instruments to tackle the macroeconomic and structural problems that have burdened the Japanese economy since the burst of the financial bubble at the beginning of the 90s. These choices were deliberate, since the "right" policies (in primis the resolution of the banking crisis) presented unbearable political costs, not only for the ruling parties, but also for the bureaucratic and business elites. The misfortunes of the Japanese economy during the long recession not only allow us to draw important economic policy lessons, but also stimulate reflections on the disruptive role on economic policies caused by powerful vested interests when an economy needs broad and deep structural changes. The final part of the paper focuses on ways to tackle Japan's banking crisis. In particular, it explores the Scandinavian solution, which, mutatis mutandis, might serve Japanese policy-makers well.

Análisis de la crisis financiera de estados unidos (2007-2008) y la crisis de deuda (2011): su relación e impacto sobre uno de los fundamentales de la economía colombiana, la tasa de cambio

Este documento presenta una perspectiva de como una economía pequeña y abierta (en temas comerciales y de inversión) como la colombiana, se ve afectada por choques que sufren economías grandes como la estadounidense. Durante el periodo de estudio la economía de Estados Unidos sufrió dos choques: primero la crisis de las hipotecas subprime en los años 2007-2008; luego la crisis de deuda soberana de Estados Unidos en 2011. Estos dos choques afectaron la economía colombiana. En ambos casos, se puede establecer un hecho clave que detonó las crisis. En el primero, la entrada en el capítulo 11 de protección a bancarrotas por parte de Lehman Brothers, el 15 de septiembre de 2008. En el segundo, el detonante fue la baja de la calificación de la deuda soberana de Estados Unidos por parte de Standard and Poor´s el 5 de agosto de 2011. Estos días claves en las crisis, afectaron los principales índices de la bolsa de Estados Unidos, especialmente los relacionados con la actividad financiera, luego es de suponer que posiblemente también afectaron fundamentales de la economía colombiana como lo es la tasa de cambio peso-dólar (USD/COP). Este documento tiene como objeto principal, establecer el impacto de las crisis Norteamericana de 2007-2008 y de 2011, sobre la economía colombiana, específicamente sobre la tasa de cambio USD/COP. El documento también, analiza las causas que generaron dichas crisis en Estados Unidos, haciendo énfasis en la falta de regulación y control por parte de las instituciones del gobierno en la crisis de las hipotecas subprime. De igual forma se analiza el papel de las firmas calificadoras de riesgo, en la crisis de deuda estadounidense.

Incidencia de la evolución de los intereses estratégicos de Rusia y de Kazajstán en las dinámicas de cooperación bilateral. Periodo 1991 – 2004

El trabajo desarrolla la forma en la que evolucionaron las relaciones bilaterales entre Rusia y Kazajstán desde el periodo inmediatamente posterior a la caída de la URSS donde no existía una relación cercana, hasta el año 2001 donde se empieza a hablar de una cooperación entre los dos actores que llevó a una estrecha relación bilateral.

Las regalías en Colombia y su impacto en el ámbito subnacional

Durante varios años se ha mantenido un fascinante debate sobre las regalías por lo que significanpara las finanzasde los entes subnacionales, por su impacto en el ámbito social y por su signifcado en materia tributaria para las empresas, entre otros. El objeto del presente trabajo es presentar el marco normativo que rige las regalías, las variables que las determinan desde el aspecto legal y su impacto; así como estudiar los posibles agrupamientos resultantes a nivel municipal y departamental teniendo como base un conjunto más amplio de variables diferentes al de las regalías.Respecto a los determinantes normativos se encontró que el monto de las regalías depende de la producción minera, del precio internacional del petróleo, del tipo de cambio y de la inflación. Desde el punto de vista de las entidades territoriales se encontró que las regalías asignadas dependen básicamente del PIB minero y que los ingresos tributarios departamentales y municipales no dependen del PIB no minero (PIB menos PIB minero). Finalmente, hay un grupo pequeño de entidades territoriales donde las regalías tienen cierto impacto, esto siembra una inquietud con respecto al mandato constitucional que señala que “el Estado es propietario del subsuelo y de los recursos naturales no renovables”, con lo cual el impacto debería abarcar buena parte del territorio nacional.-----For several years has been hold a fascinating debate on royalties, because of what they mean for the financesof the subnational entities, their social impact and its meaning in tax matters for companies, among others issues. The objective of this work is to present the regulatory framework governing royalties currently, show the variables that determine them from legal order and its impact; as well as studying the possible resulting groupings at the municipal and departmental levels taking as a basis a broader set of variables different of royalties.Respect to normative determinants, it was found that the amount of the royalties depends on mining production, the international oil prices, exchange rate and inflation. From the point of view of the territorial entities, it was found that assigned royalties are basically dependent on mining GDP. Meanwhile, departmental and municipal tax revenues are not dependent on GDP without mining (mining excluded from GDP). Finally, there are a small group of territorial entities where royalties have some impact, leaving some concern regarding to the constitutional mandate pointing to “the State owns the subsoil and non-renewable natural resources”, where the impact should covers most of the national territory.

Foro de Cooperación Latinoamérica – Asia del Este (Focalae) y Pequeñas y MedianasEmpresas (Pymes)

Este estudio pretende analizar las ventajas que le puede brindar el proyecto de Focalae para Pymes a la pequeña y mediana empresa colombiana a la hora de explorar nuevos mercados en Asia del Este, en particular el coreano.

El papel de las organizaciones Internacionales en la imagen de los Estados en el escenario internacional: La crisis Financiera de Argentina y la actuación del Fondo Monetario Internacional 2000- 2010

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo identificar el papel que tuvo el Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI] en el cambio de la imagen del Estado argentino después de la crisis financiera que estalló en el 2001. Como consecuencia de la declaración de default por parte del gobierno argentino se da un cambio en la imagen financiera del país, influenciada por el FMI, que convierte a Argentina en un paria internacional en temas financieros y comerciales alejándolo de los mercados internacionales. Este estudio de caso tendrá un acercamiento cualitativo dado que se analizarán las características, actuaciones y las bases crean el lazo entre las variables de la crisis financiera y el rol del FMI en Argentina y así poder entender su relación.

Perfil de mercado de la Unión Europea y los países de la EFTA

El presente trabajo de grado busca evaluar el perfil del mercado de la Unión Europea y los países de la EFTA para identificar las oportunidades comerciales de Colombia, más específicamente en los siguientes países: Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. A través de esta investigación se realizó un análisis de los 25 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países estudiados, tomando en cuenta sus códigos arancelarios. Adicionalmente, se evaluaron las balanzas comerciales de cada uno de los países, las tendencias de las exportaciones Colombianas de los últimos años, y las posibles oportunidades de mercados teniendo en cuenta las necesidades de importaciones detalladas de cada país europeo. A partir de la información encontrada la investigación se concentró en la proveniencia exacta del departamento Colombiano que hacia las exportaciones de los 25 productos más representativos a cada uno de los países evaluados. Teniendo en cuenta esta información, se evaluó por departamento, las oportunidades y perfiles de mercado de exportación hacia Suiza, Noruega, Liechtenstein, Islandia, Republica Checa, Rumania y Suecia. Finalmente se identificaron los 10 productos más exportados de Colombia a cada uno de los países analizados, con el fin de enfocar las mejoras y potencializar las exportaciones de estos productos a los países europeos evaluados. Adicionalmente durante la investigación se realizan recomendaciones específicas por país y al final del documento se encuentran las conclusiones generales y recomendaciones principales para futuras exportaciones de Colombia a los países de la EFTA, República Checa, Rumania y Suecia.

A simple test of momentum in foreign exchange markets

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. We illustrate our methodology estimating a binary response model using information on local currency / US dollar exchange rates of eight emerging economies. After controlling for important variables a§ecting the behavior of exchange rates in the short-run, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; in other words, we Önd that exchange rate momentum is a common feature in this group of emerging economies, and thus foreign exchange traders participating in these markets are able to make excess returns by following technical analysis strategies. We Önd that the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Productivity, labour cost and export adjustment: Detailed results for 24 EU countries. Bruegel Working Paper 2012/11, 12 July 2012

As a background document for Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/11 ‘Compositional effects on productivity, labour cost and export adjustment’, this working paper presents detailed results for 24 EU countries on: • The sectoral changes in the economy; • The unit labour costs (ULC) based real effective exchange rate (REER) and its main components; • Export performance. • The ULC-REERs are calculated: • For the total economy, the business sector (excluding agriculture, construction and real estate activities), and some main sectors; • Using both actual aggregates and fixed-weight aggregates, as the latter are free from the impacts of compositional changes; • Against 30 trading partners and against three subsets of trading partners: euro-area, non-euro area EU, non-EU.

The influence of hilly terrain on canopy-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange

Topography influences many aspects of forest-atmosphere carbon exchange; yet only a small number of studies have considered the role of topography on the structure of turbulence within and above vegetation and its effect on canopy photosynthesis and the measurement of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (N-ee) using flux towers. Here, we focus on the interplay between radiative transfer, flow dynamics for neutral stratification, and ecophysiological controls on CO2 sources and sinks within a canopy on a gentle cosine hill. We examine how topography alters the forest-atmosphere CO2 exchange rate when compared to uniform flat terrain using a newly developed first-order closure model that explicitly accounts for the flow dynamics, radiative transfer, and nonlinear eco physiological processes within a plant canopy. We show that variation in radiation and airflow due to topography causes only a minor departure in horizontally averaged and vertically integrated photosynthesis from their flat terrain values. However, topography perturbs the airflow and concentration fields in and above plant canopies, leading to significant horizontal and vertical advection of CO2. Advection terms in the conservation equation may be neglected in flow over homogeneous, flat terrain, and then N-ee = F-c, the vertical turbulent flux of CO2. Model results suggest that vertical and horizontal advection terms are generally of opposite sign and of the same order as the biological sources and sinks. We show that, close to the hilltop, F-c departs by a factor of three compared to its flat terrain counterpart and that the horizontally averaged F-c-at canopy top differs by more than 20% compared to the flat-terrain case.

Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates

Many recent papers have documented periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid–ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. We propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in time series data based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8-h and 12-h frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule that is based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules can generate returns that are considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, although they cannot retain their profitability net of transactions costs. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for financial market researchers which will enable them to detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data better.

Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates

We consider the forecasting performance of two SETAR exchange rate models proposed by Kräger and Kugler [J. Int. Money Fin. 12 (1993) 195]. Assuming that the models are good approximations to the data generating process, we show that whether the non-linearities inherent in the data can be exploited to forecast better than a random walk depends on both how forecast accuracy is assessed and on the ‘state of nature’. Evaluation based on traditional measures, such as (root) mean squared forecast errors, may mask the superiority of the non-linear models. Generalized impulse response functions are also calculated as a means of portraying the asymmetric response to shocks implied by such models.

Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation

We consider evaluating the UK Monetary Policy Committee's inflation density forecasts using probability integral transform goodness-of-fit tests. These tests evaluate the whole forecast density. We also consider whether the probabilities assigned to inflation being in certain ranges are well calibrated, where the ranges are chosen to be those of particular relevance to the MPC, given its remit of maintaining inflation rates in a band around per annum. Finally, we discuss the decision-based approach to forecast evaluation in relation to the MPC forecasts

Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.