Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Approximate analytical description for fundamental-mode fields of graded-index fibers: Beyond the Gaussian approximation

An approximate analytical description for fundamental-mode fields of graded-index fibers is explicitly presented by use of the power-series expansion method, the maximum-value condition at the fiber axis, the decay properties of fundamental-mode fields at large distance from the fiber axis, and the approximate modal parameters U obtained from the Gaussian approximation. This analytical description is much more accurate than the Gaussian approximation and at the same time keep the simplicity of the latter. As two special examples, we present the approximate analytical formulas for the fundamental-mode fields of a step profile fiber and a Gaussian profile fiber, and we find that they are both highly accurate in the single-mode range by comparing them with the corresponding exact solutions.

Comment on: Computation of the optical trapping force using an FDTD based technique

In this comment, problems associated with an oversimplified FDTD based model used for trapping force calculation in recent papers "Computation of the optical trapping force using an FDTD based technique" [Opt. Express 13, 3707 (2005)], and "Rigorous time domain simulation of momentum transfer between light and microscopic particles in optical trapping" [Opt. Express 12, 2220 (2004)] are discussed. A more rigorous model using in Poynting vector is also presented.