Evaluating forecasts of the evolution of the cloudy boundary layer using diurnal composites of radar and lidar observations

Observations of boundary-layer cloud have been made using radar and lidar at Chilbolton, Hampshire, UK. These have been compared with output from 7 different global and regional models. Fifty-five cloudy days have been composited to reveal the mean diurnal variation of cloud top and base heights, cloud thickness and liquid water path of the clouds. To enable like-for-like comparison between model and observations, the observations have been averaged on to the grid of each model. The composites show a distinct diurnal cycle in observed cloud; the cloud height exhibits a sinusoidal variation throughout the day with a maximum at around 1600 and a minimum at around 0700 UTC. This diurnal cycle is captured by six of the seven models analysed, although the models generally under-predict both cloud top and cloud base heights throughout the day. The two worst performing models in terms of cloud boundaries also have biases of around a factor of two in liquid water path; these were the only two models that did not include an explicit formulation for cloud-top entrainment.

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill.

Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from NH extra-tropical cyclones

The effect of a warmer climate on the properties of extra-tropical cyclones is investigated using simulations of the ECHAM5 global climate model at resolutions of T213 (60 km) and T319 (40 km). Two periods representative of the end of the 20th and 21st centuries are investigated using the IPCC A1B scenario. The focus of the paper is on precipitation for the NH summer and winter seasons, however results from vorticity and winds are also presented. Similar number of events are identified at both resolutions. There are, however, a greater number of extreme precipitation events in the higher reso- lution run. The difference between maximum intensity distributions are shown to be statistically significant using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A Generalised Pareto Distribution is used to analyse changes in extreme precipitation and wind events. In both resolutions, there is an increase in the number of ex- treme precipitation events in a warmer climate for all seasons, together with a reduction in return period. This is not associated with any increased verti- cal velocity, or with any increase in wind intensity in the winter and spring. However, there is an increase in wind extremes in the summer and autumn associated with tropical cyclones migrating into the extra-tropics.

Synthesis and structural characterisation of [Pd2(μ-Br)2(PBut3)2], an example of a palladium(I)-palladium(I) dimer

The syntheses, spectroscopic characterisation and in one case (X = Br) the single-crystal structure of the novel PdI–PdI dimers [Pd2(µ-X)2(PBut3)2](X = Br or I) have been determined; preliminary results on their reactions with CO, H2, CNC6H3Me2 and C2H2 have also been obtained.

A simple analysis of thermodynamic properties for classical plasmas: I. theory

By eliminating the short range negative divergence of the Debye–Hückel pair distribution function, but retaining the exponential charge screening known to operate at large interparticle separation, the thermodynamic properties of one-component plasmas of point ions or charged hard spheres can be well represented even in the strong coupling regime. Predicted electrostatic free energies agree within 5% of simulation data for typical Coulomb interactions up to a factor of 10 times the average kinetic energy. Here, this idea is extended to the general case of a uniform ionic mixture, comprising an arbitrary number of components, embedded in a rigid neutralizing background. The new theory is implemented in two ways: (i) by an unambiguous iterative algorithm that requires numerical methods and breaks the symmetry of cross correlation functions; and (ii) by invoking generalized matrix inverses that maintain symmetry and yield completely analytic solutions, but which are not uniquely determined. The extreme computational simplicity of the theory is attractive when considering applications to complex inhomogeneous fluids of charged particles.

Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) have identified collaborations and scientific priorities to accelerate advances in analysis and prediction at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, which include i) advancing knowledge of mesoscale–planetary-scale interactions and their prediction; ii) developing high-resolution global–regional climate simulations, with advanced representation of physical processes, to improve the predictive skill of subseasonal and seasonal variability of high-impact events, such as seasonal droughts and floods, blocking, and tropical and extratropical cyclones; iii) contributing to the improvement of data assimilation methods for monitoring and predicting used in coupled ocean–atmosphere–land and Earth system models; and iv) developing and transferring diagnostic and prognostic information tailored to socioeconomic decision making. The document puts forward specific underpinning research, linkage, and requirements necessary to achieve the goals of the proposed collaboration.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

A radar-based rainfall climatology of Great Britain and Ireland

The Met Office 1km radar-derived precipitation-rate composite over 8 years (2006–2013) is examined to evaluate whether it provides an accurate representation of annual-average precipitation over Great Britain and Ireland over long periods of time. The annual-average precipitation from the radar composite is comparable with gauge measurements, with an average error of +23mmyr−1 over Great Britain and Ireland, +29mmyr−1 (3%) over the United Kingdom and –781mmyr−1 (46%) over the Republic of Ireland. The radar-derived precipitation composite is useful over the United Kingdom including Northern Ireland, but not accurate over the Republic of Ireland, particularly in the south.

Optimization of a sponge cake formulation with inulin as fat replacer: structure, physicochemical, and sensory properties

The effects of several fat replacement levels (0%, 35%, 50%, 70%, and 100%) by inulin in sponge cake microstructure and physicochemical properties were studied. Oil substitution for inulin decreased significantly (P < 0.05) batter viscosity, giving heterogeneous bubbles size distributions as it was observed by light microscopy. Using confocal laser scanning microscopy the fat was observed to be located at the bubbles’ interface, enabling an optimum crumb cake structure development during baking. Cryo-SEM micrographs of cake crumbs showed a continuous matrix with embedded starch granules and coated with oil; when fat replacement levels increased, starch granules appeared as detached structures. Cakes with fat replacement up to 70% had a high crumb air cell values; they were softer and rated as acceptable by an untrained sensory panel (n = 51). So, the reformulation of a standard sponge cake recipe to obtain a new product with additional health benefits and accepted by consumers is achieved.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition

With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop / weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modelling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

Cosmic shear requirements on the wavelength dependence of telescope point spread functions

Cosmic shear requires high precision measurement of galaxy shapes in the presence of the observational point spread function (PSF) that smears out the image. The PSF must therefore be known for each galaxy to a high accuracy. However, for several reasons, the PSF is usually wavelength dependent; therefore, the differences between the spectral energy distribution of the observed objects introduce further complexity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the wavelength dependence of the PSF, focusing on instruments in which the PSF size is dominated by the diffraction limit of the telescope and which use broad-band filters for shape measurement. We first calculate biases on cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic shear when the stellar PSF is used uncorrected. Using realistic galaxy and star spectral energy distributions and populations and a simple three-component circular PSF, we find that the colour dependence must be taken into account for the next generation of telescopes. We then consider two different methods for removing the effect: (i) the use of stars of the same colour as the galaxies and (ii) estimation of the galaxy spectral energy distribution using multiple colours and using a telescope model for the PSF. We find that both of these methods correct the effect to levels below the tolerances required for per cent level measurements of dark energy parameters. Comparison of the two methods favours the template-fitting method because its efficiency is less dependent on galaxy redshift than the broad-band colour method and takes full advantage of deeper photometry.

The influence of halo assembly on galaxies and galaxy groups

In this paper, we study the variations of groups (galaxy properties according to the assembly history in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 (SDSS-DR6) selected groups. Using mock SDSS group catalogues, we find two suitable indicators of group formation time: (i) the isolation of the group, defined as the distance to the nearest neighbour ill terms of its virial radius and 00 the concentration. measured as the groups inner density calculated using the fifth nearest bright galaxy to the groups centre. Groups Within narrow ranges of Mass ill the mock catalO-Lie show increasing Ifl-OLIP alle With isolation and concentration. However, in the observational data the stellar age, as indicated by the spectral type, only shows a correlation with concentration. We study groups of similar mass and different assembly history. finding important differences ill their galaxy population. Particularly, ill high-mass SDSS groups. the number of members. mass-to-light ratios, red galaxy fractions and the magnitude difference between the brightest and second-brightest group galaxies, show different trends as a function of isolation and concentration, even when it is expected that the latter two quantities correlate with group age. Conversely. low-mass SDSS groups appear to be less sensitive to their assembly history. The correlations detected in the SDSS are not consistent with the trends measured in the mock catalogues. However, discrepancies can he explained in terms of the disagreement found in the a-e-isolation trends, suggesting that the model might be overestimating the effects of, environment, We discuss how the modelling of the cold gas ill satellite galaxies could be responsible for this problem. These results call be Used to improve our Understanding of the evolution of galaxies ill high-density environments.

Chronic supplementation of beta-hydroxy-beta methylbutyrate (HM beta) increases the activity of the GH/IGF-I axis and induces hyperinsulinemia in rats

Objective: Beta-hydroxy-beta-methylbutyrate (HM beta) is a metabolite of leucine widely used for improving sports performance. Although limp is recognized to promote anabolic or anti-catabolic effects on protein metabolism, the impact of its long-term use on skeletal muscle and/or genes that control the skeletal protein balance is not fully known. This study aimed to investigate whether chronic HM beta treatment affects the activity of GH/IGF-I axis and skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA expression. Design: Rats were treated with HK beta (320 mg/kg BW) or vehicle, by gavage, for 4 weeks, and killed by decapitation. Blood was collected for evaluation of serum insulin, glucose and IGF-I concentrations. Samples of pituitary, liver, extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and soleus muscles were collected for total RNA or protein extraction to evaluate the expression of pituitary growth hormone (GH) gene (mRNA and protein), hepatic insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) mRNA, skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA by Northern blotting/real time-PCR, or Western blotting. Results: Chronic HM beta treatment increased the content of pituitary GH mRNA and GH, hepatic IGF-I mRNA and serum IGF-I concentration. No changes were detected on skeletal muscle IGF-I and myostatin mRNA expression. However, the HIM-treated rats although normoglycemic, exhibited hyperinsulinemia. Conclusions: The data presented herein extend the body of evidence on the potential role of HM beta-treatment in stimulating GH/IGF-I axis activity. In spite of this effect, HM beta supplementation also induces an apparent insulin resistance state which might limit the beneficial aspects of the former results, at least in rats under normal nutritional status and health conditions. (C) 2010 Growth Hormone Research Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.