A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.

Clúster creatius en entorns urbans: 22@Bcn i Shoreditch East London

La localització de les empreses de nova economia en zones urbanes, a pesar que el factor distància no sigui important, no deixa de ser considerable pels seus avantatges que els suposa estar situades conjuntament en relació amb les infraestructures, consum, beneficis socioculturals, i facilitat en les transaccions cara a cara. És inevitable que el primer quart del segle vint-i-un estigui lligat a l’economia creativa de forma similar amb que el començament del segle vint estava íntimament lligat a l’economia industrial i la invenció del sistema de producció en massa. La ciutat també va jugar un dels papers més importants per al desenvolupament de “la nova economia industrial” a les albors del segle vint, com ho és la ciutat del coneixement que acull “la nova economia creativa” al segle vint-i-un. És evident que els resultats morfològics, socials, econòmics i urbans són ben diferents en ambdós fenòmens, però l’impacte a les ciutats és molt gran. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és analitzar els mecanismes d’aglomeració (clustering) d’activitats competitives basades en creació de coneixement i de serveis avançats que estan al darrera de desenvolupaments punters a ciutats com Barcelona, el projecte 22@bcn, i East London, el projecte Shoreditch. L’esforç que han posat les autoritats locals en crear l’entorn apropiat per atreure i crear empreses innovadores, com a motor de desenvolupament d’algunes ciutats modernes europees ha resultat en el sorgiment de nuclis o centres urbans molt dinàmics que suposadament estan preparats i acullen punts de creació de coneixement (“Urban Knowledge Hubs”), amb una demanda i llocs de treball altament qualificats. Aquest és el cas dels projectes de Barcelona (22@bcn) i East London (Shoreditch).

Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

Near-linear dynamics in KdV with periodic boundary conditions

Near linear evolution in Korteweg de Vries (KdV) equation with periodic boundary conditions is established under the assumption of high frequency initial data. This result is obtained by the method of normal form reduction.

Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in healthy subjects during near-continuous oral nutrition and bed rest: a comparison with published data in artificially fed, critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In critically ill patients, fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis increases in proportion to carbohydrate administration during isoenergetic nutrition. In this study, we sought to determine whether this increase may be the consequence of continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest. We, therefore, measured fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in a group of 12 healthy subjects during near-continuous oral feeding (hourly isoenergetic meals with a liquid formula containing 55% carbohydrate). In eight subjects, near-continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest were applied over a 10 h period. In the other four subjects, it was extended to 34 h. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was measured by infusing(13) C-labeled acetate and monitoring VLDL-(13)C palmitate enrichment with mass isotopomer distribution analysis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was 3.2% (range 1.5-7.5%) in the eight subjects after 10 h of near continuous nutrition and 1.6% (range 1.3-2.0%) in the four subjects after 34 h of near-continuous nutrition and bed rest. This indicates that continuous nutrition and physical inactivity do not increase hepatic de novo lipogenesis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis previously reported in critically ill patients under similar nutritional conditions (9.3%) (range 5.3-15.8%) was markedly higher than in healthy subjects (P<0.001). These data from healthy subjects indicate that fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis is increased in critically ill patients.

A new host of Trypanosoma cruzi from Jujuy, Argentina: octodontomys gliroides (Gervais & D'Orbigny, 1844) (Rodentia, Octodontidae)

To identify wild hosts of Trypanosoma cruzi, surveys were conducted in the subandean valleys of Jujuy Province, Argentina, between June 1986 and March 1987. Seventy two mammals from 13 different species were examined by xenodiagnosis. Fifty two of them were mostly roedents trapped at the localities of Maimará, León and Tilcara, and the remainder had been kept in captivity at the Estación Biológica Experimental, in Jujuy. Trypanosoma cruzi infection was detected only in 2 Octodontomys gliroides (2 pos./8 exam. 25%) from all 72 examined mammals. Isolates were called Octodontomys Argentina 1 and 2 (OA1 and OA2). Both infected animals were caught at the archaelogical ruin of Pucará, at Tilcara. Repeated searches for triatomines in the ruin itself and in neighbour houses rendered negative results. Groups of mice inoculated with either OA1 or OA2 isolates became infected between 7 (OA1) to 12 days (OA2) postinoculation PI. Parasitemia peaks were observed between day 12th - 14th PI. Scarce amastigote nests were found in myocardium and skeletal muscle. Mortality was observed only for mice inoculated with OA1. Isoenzyme patterns of OA1 and OA2 were identical to one found in dogs and slightly different from that of human parasites in Argentina. Bones from Octodontomys sp., were recently found in a cave, dated 10200-8600 BC, in Pumamarca, near Tilcara, Jujuy. There are evidences that O. gliroides cohabited with man in ancient times and was associated to the domestic cycle of T. cruzi transmission, playing a role like that of domestic cavies. in Bolivia.

Normal glucagon signaling and β-cell function after near-total α-cell ablation in adult mice.

OBJECTIVEEvaluate whether healthy or diabetic adult mice can tolerate an extreme loss of pancreatic α-cells and how this sudden massive depletion affects β-cell function and blood glucose homeostasis.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSWe generated a new transgenic model allowing near-total α-cell removal specifically in adult mice. Massive α-cell ablation was triggered in normally grown and healthy adult animals upon diphtheria toxin (DT) administration. The metabolic status of these mice was assessed in 1) physiologic conditions, 2) a situation requiring glucagon action, and 3) after β-cell loss.RESULTSAdult transgenic mice enduring extreme (98%) α-cell removal remained healthy and did not display major defects in insulin counter-regulatory response. We observed that 2% of the normal α-cell mass produced enough glucagon to ensure near-normal glucagonemia. β-Cell function and blood glucose homeostasis remained unaltered after α-cell loss, indicating that direct local intraislet signaling between α- and β-cells is dispensable. Escaping α-cells increased their glucagon content during subsequent months, but there was no significant α-cell regeneration. Near-total α-cell ablation did not prevent hyperglycemia in mice having also undergone massive β-cell loss, indicating that a minimal amount of α-cells can still guarantee normal glucagon signaling in diabetic conditions.CONCLUSIONSAn extremely low amount of α-cells is sufficient to prevent a major counter-regulatory deregulation, both under physiologic and diabetic conditions. We previously reported that α-cells reprogram to insulin production after extreme β-cell loss and now conjecture that the low α-cell requirement could be exploited in future diabetic therapies aimed at regenerating β-cells by reprogramming adult α-cells.

Continuous monitoring of liver oxygenation with near infrared spectroscopy during naso-gastric tube feeding in neonates.

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a non-invasive method of estimating the haemoglobin concentration changes in certain tissues. It is frequently used to monitor oxygenation of the brain in neonates. At present it is not clear whether near infrared spectroscopy of other organs (e.g. the liver as a corresponding site in the splanchnic region, which reacts very sensitively to haemodynamic instability) provides reliable values on their tissue oxygenation. The aim of the study was to test near infrared spectroscopy by measuring known physiologic changes in tissue oxygenation of the liver in newborn infants during and after feeding via a naso-gastric tube. The test-retest variability of such measurements was also determined. On 28 occasions in 25 infants we measured the tissue oxygenation index (TOI) of the liver and the brain continuously before, during and 30 minutes after feeding via a gastric tube. Simultaneously we measured arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2), heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP). In 10 other newborn infants we performed a test-retest analysis of the liver tissue oxygenation index to estimate the variability in repeated intra-individual measurements. The tissue oxygenation index of the liver increased significantly from 56.7 +/- 7.5% before to 60.3 +/- 5.6% after feeding (p < 0.005), and remained unchanged for the next 30 minutes. The tissue oxygenation index of the brain (62.1 +/- 9.7%), SaO2 (94.4 +/- 7.1%), heart rate (145 +/- 17.3 min-1) and mean arterial blood pressure (52.8 +/- 10.2 mm Hg) did not change significantly. The test-retest variability for intra-individual measurements was 2.7 +/- 2.1%. After bolus feeding the tissue oxygenation index of the liver increased as expected. This indicates that near infrared spectroscopy is suitable for monitoring changes in tissue oxygenation of the liver in newborn infants.

South & East Belfast Community Nursing Project - Primary Care Integrated Nursing Model (PDF 524 KB)

South & East Belfast H&SS Trust's final report on Primary Care Integrated Nursing Model. Part of the Department's redesign of community nursing project

Re: Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study.

Rapid response to: Ortegón M, Lim S, Chisholm D, Mendis S. Cost effectiveness of strategies to combat cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and tobacco use in sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia: mathematical modelling study. BMJ. 2012 Mar 2;344:e607. doi: 10.1136/bmj.e607. PMID: 22389337.

Leishmanial antigens in the diagnosis of active lesions and ancient scars of American tegumentary leishmaniasis patients

Cutaneous biopsies (n = 94) obtained from 88 patients with American tegumentary leishmaniasis were studied by conventional and immunohistochemical techniques. Specimens were distributed as active lesions of cutaneous leishmaniasis (n = 53) (Group I), cicatricial lesions of cutaneous leishmaniasis (n = 35) (Group II) and suggestive scars of healed mucosal leishmaniasis patients (n = 6) (Group III). In addition, active cutaneous lesions of other etiology (n = 24) (Group C1) and cutaneous scars not related to leishmaniasis (n = 10) (Group C2) were also included in the protocol. Amastigotes in Group I biopsies were detected by routine histopathological exam (30.2%), imprint (28.2%), culture (43.4%), immunofluorescence (41.4%) and immunoperoxidase (58.5%) techniques; and by the five methods together (79.3%). In Group II, 5.7% of cultures were positive. Leishmanial antigen was also seen in the cytoplasm of macrophages and giant cells (cellular pattern), vessel walls (vascular pattern) and dermal nerves (neural pattern). Positive reaction was detected in 49 (92.5%), 20 (57%) and 4 (67%) biopsies of Groups I, II and III, respectively. Antigen persistency in cicatricial tissue may be related to immunoprotection or, on the contrary, to the development of late lesions. We suggest that the cellular, vascular and neural patterns could be applied in the immunodiagnosis of active and cicatricial lesions in which leishmaniasis is suspected.