Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by non-stationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi-two-year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for non-stationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this non-stationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to non-stationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the mid-latitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and re-analysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.

How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

A comparison between large-scale irregularities and scintillations in the polar ionosphere

A comparison tool has been developed by mapping the global GPS total electron content (TEC) and large coverage of ionospheric scintillations together on the geomagnetic latitude/magnetic local time coordinates. Using this tool, a comparison between large-scale ionospheric irregularities and scintillations are pursued during a geomagnetic storm. Irregularities, such as storm enhanced density (SED), middle-latitude trough and polar cap patches, are clearly identified from the TEC maps. At the edges of these irregularities, clear scintillations appeared but their behaviors were different. Phase scintillations (σsub{φ}) were almost always larger than amplitude scintillations (S4) at the edges of these irregularities, associated with bursty flows or flow reversals with large density gradients. An unexpected scintillation feature appeared inside the modeled auroral oval where S4 were much larger than σsub{φ}, most likely caused by particle precipitations around the exiting polar cap patches.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

Spring into summer : a novel

Spring into Summer is a novel based on my experiences as a student living in London for a year. The central character, an American under-graduate student studying history, attempts to complete a piece of work by his older brother who is killed in a car accident several months prior to his brother's departure for England. The narrative traces the younger brother's efforts and eventual failure to work on the history; in so doing, he also fails to become more like his older brother whom he greatly loved and admired. Thus, a doppelganger, or "Double" of sorts is used. Most of the action of the novel is set in London. However, the main character also travels to Dublin, York, and several other places in the British Isles, thereby giving a more complete picture of the experiences an American student undergoes while living abroad. During a year which many people might see as an escape from the problems and pressures of everyday life, the central character is forced to undergo a painful process of self-examination, resulting in his reevaluation of himself, his priorities, and his ambitions.

Movimento estudantil e serviço social no capitalismo contemporâneo: tendências e particularidades

This dissertation aims to analyze the social direction in which the Student Movement in Social Work in Brazil (ENESSO) has gone through. This is done considering how the functioning of the National Executive, the Brazilian Social Work Student union has operated. The research analyzed their political position regarding the university as well as professional education in the period of 2003 to 2008. The study s theoretical and methodological object was obtained according to its structural, juncture, and time determinants. All of the mentioned elements considered the contemporary capital crisis and its implications towards the State and Society emphasizing specifically the changes that occurred in the University regarding professional education. For the purpose of data collection and production, a documental and field research was realized. Thus, interviews were done considering one manager of each management period of the ENESSO group in the time span of 2003 to 2008. Some subjects that represented the Brazilian Social Work Teaching and Research Association (ABEPSS) as well as were also interviewed. These subjects have had a relevant role in partnership with these entities and represented students in the contemporary scene. Results suggest that ENESSO has developed work that defends a project of a public, free and laic quality university. This entity also defends a project that considers the 1996 Curricular Guidelines. Currently, there is internal dispute in the social direction of the MESS, this is seen amongst political groups that diverge in opinions related to the analysis done by the Lula government regarding the political role that the National Student Union-UNE has taken in the counter-reform of higher education. This current juncture is seen as extremely individualist and it results as in unfavorable for the collective organization of the working class, especially regarding student movement. MESS has been going through a moment of profound instability and this dimension is being expressed by the absence of national coordinator for the 2008/2009 management period at ENESSO. Even though there are difficulties, it is possible to point out partnership of the entities that represent the national Social Work in Brazil. These partnerships are all related to a struggle and search for the development of a professional project that leads towards the sociability awareness that goes beyond capital.

Biomass fire consumption and carbon release rates of rainforest-clearing experiments conducted in northern Mato Grosso, Brazil

Biomass consumption and carbon release rates during the process of forest clearing by fire in five test plots are presented and discussed. The experiments were conducted at the Caiabi Farm near the town of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, in five square plots of 1 ha each designated A, B, C, D, and E, with different locations and timing of fire. Plot A was located in the interface with a pasture, with three edges bordering on the forest, and was cut and burned in 1997. Plots B,C, D, and E were located inside the forest. Plot B was cut and burned in 1997. Plot C was inside a deforested 9-ha area, which was cut and burned in 1998. Plot D was inside a deforested 4-ha area, which was cut in 1998 and burned in 1999. Plot E was inside a deforested 4-ha area which was cut and burned in 1999. Biomass consumption was 22.7%, 19.5%, 47.5%, 61.5% and 41.8%, for A, B, C, D, and E, respectively. The effects of an extended curing period and of increasing the deforested area surrounding the plots could be clearly observed. The consumption for areas cut and burned during the same year, tended toward a value of nearly 50% when presented as a function of the total area burned. The aboveground biomass of the test site and the amount of carbon before the fire were 496 Mg ha-1 and 138 Mg ha-1, respectively. Considering that the biomass that remains unburned keeps about the same average carbon content of fresh biomass, which is supported by the fact that the unburned material consists mainly of large logs and considering the value of 50% for consumption, the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere as gases was 69 Mg ha-1. The amounts of CO2 and CO released to the atmosphere by the burning process were then estimated as 228 Mg ha-1 and 15.9 Mg ha-1, respectively. Observations on fire propagation and general features of the slash burnings in the test areas complete the paper. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abnormal evening vertical plasma drift and effects on ESF and EIA over Brazil-South Atlantic sector during the 30 October 2003 superstorm

Equatorial F region vertical plasma drifts, spread F and anomaly responses, in the south American longitude sector during the superstorm of 30 October 2003, are analyzed using data from an array of instruments consisting of Digisondes, a VHF radar, GPS TEC and scintillation receivers in Brazil, and a Digisonde and a magnetometer in Jicamarca, Peru. Prompt penetrating eastward electric field of abnormally large intensity drove the F layer plasma up at a velocity ∼1200 ms -1 during post dusk hours in the eastern sector over Brazil. The equatorial anomaly was intensified and expanded poleward while the development of spread F/plasma bubble irregularities and GPS signal scintillations were weaker than their quiet time intensity. Significantly weaker F region response over Jicamarca presented a striking difference in the intensity of prompt penetration electric field between Peru and eastern longitudes of Brazil. The enhanced post dusk sector vertical drift over Brazil is attributed to electro-dynamics effects arising energetic particle precipitation in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA). These extraordinary results and their longitudinal differences are presented and discussed in this paper. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

An analysis of diurnal cycles in the mass of ambient aerosols derived from biomass burning and agro-industry

Strong diurnal cycles in ambient aerosol mass were observed in a rural region of Southeast Brazil where the trace composition of the lower troposphere is governed mainly by emissions from agro-industry. An optical particle counter was used to record size-segregated aerosol number concentrations between 13 May 2010 and 15 March 2011. The data were collected every 10 min and used to calculate aerosol mass concentrations. Aerosol samples were also collected onto filters during daytime (10:00-16:00 local time) and nighttime (20:00-06:00) periods, for subsequent analysis of soluble ions and water-soluble organic carbon. Biomass burning aerosols predominated during the dry winter, while secondary aerosols were most important in the summer rainy season. In both seasons, diurnal cycles in calculated aerosol mass concentrations were due to the uptake of water by the aerosols and, to a lesser extent, to emissions and secondary aerosol formation. In neither season could the observed mass changes be explained by changes in the depth of the boundary layer. In the summer, nighttime increases in aerosol mass ranged from 2.7-fold to 81-fold, depending on particle size, while in the winter, the range was narrower, from 2.2-fold to 9.5-fold, supporting the possibility that the presence of particles derived from biomass burning reduced the overall ability of the aerosols to absorb water. Key Points Diurnal cycle of agro-industrial aerosol mass governed by humidity Biomass burning emissions act to suppress particle growth Need to consider diurnal mass cycles in aerosol dry deposition models ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Reflexõs sobre a linguagem do ambiente chat no Teletandem sob a perspectiva da natureza heterogênea da escrita

This paper aims at discussing the characteristics of computer mediated language within a foreign language teaching and learning environment enabled by the use of synchronic writing resources – chat. The present research is based on (i) theoretical principles about the use of technologies and the teaching-learning of foreign languages in the scope of the Teletandem Brazil Project: Foreign languages for all – Projeto Teletandem Brasil: línguas estrangeiras para todos (TELLES, 2005); (ii) studies on the characteristics of the language within chat interactions; (iii) different theoretical perspectives on the relationship between spoken and written language, emphasizing the constitutive heterogeneity of writing perspective (CORRÊA, 1997, 1998, 2001); and (iv) some relevant concepts related to Prosodic Phonology field (NESPOR; VOGEL, 1986). Is being taken as research data, the written production of a Brazilian student (finishing a Licentiate in Literature) interacting with an American student (in Religious Studies) through Windows Live Messenger. The data were collected during a five-month period, during which the participants interacted through chat, totalizing 12 interactions in English and in Portuguese. During the analysis, a particular attention was given to the messages’ fragmentation, the use (or not) of punctuation signs and abbreviations within the Brazilian participant’s production, in order to discuss the representations she built of her writing, her interlocutor, herself and on the teaching-learning process of a foreign language.

Segurança na América do Sul: uma abordagem histórico-conceitual

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)