Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

A precipitation downscaling method is presented using precipitation from a general circulation model (GCM) as predictor. The method extends a previous method from monthly to daily temporal resolution. The simplest form of the method corrects for biases in wet-day frequency and intensity. A more sophisticated variant also takes account of flow-dependent biases in the GCM. The method is flexible and simple to implement. It is proposed here as a correction of GCM output for applications where sophisticated methods are not available, or as a benchmark for the evaluation of other downscaling methods. Applied to output from reanalyses (ECMWF, NCEP) in the region of the European Alps, the method is capable of reducing large biases in the precipitation frequency distribution, even for high quantiles. The two variants exhibit similar performances, but the ideal choice of method can depend on the GCM/reanalysis and it is recommended to test the methods in each case. Limitations of the method are found in small areas with unresolved topographic detail that influence higher-order statistics (e.g. high quantiles). When used as benchmark for three regional climate models (RCMs), the corrected reanalysis and the RCMs perform similarly in many regions, but the added value of the latter is evident for high quantiles in some small regions.

Natural effusions: Mrs J. Howorth’s English translation of Albrecht von Haller’s Die Alpen

Albrecht von Haller's Die Alpen [The Alps] was an immensely popular piece of early eighteenth-century poetry, yet it took more than half a century to be translated into English. In this article I examine Mrs J. Howorth's prose rendering of it in her translated collection The Poems of Baron Haller (1794) and analyse how the translation itself reflects late-eighteenth-century scientific, political and aesthetic concerns, notably through the influence of Linnaeus and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. Secondly, I explore how Howorth constructed a public image of herself as a female consumer and producer of botanical literature, and argue that her translation constitutes an early example of British women's increasing engagement in science through the activity of translation.

Altitude acts as an environmental filter on phylogenetic composition, traits and diversity in bee communities.

Knowledge about the phylogeny and ecology of communities along environmental gradients helps to disentangle the role of competition-driven processes and environmental filtering for community assembly. In this study, we evaluated patterns in species richness, phylogenetic structure and life-history traits of bee communities along altitudinal gradients in the Alps, Germany. We found a linear decline in species richness and abundance but increasing phylogenetic clustering in communities with increasing altitude. The proportion of social- and ground-nesting species, as well as mean body size and altitudinal range of bee communities, increased with increasing altitude, whereas the mean geographical distribution decreased. Our results suggest that community assembly at high altitudes is dominated by environmental filtering effects, whereas the relative importance of competition increases at low altitudes. We conclude that inherent phylogenetic and ecological species attributes at high altitudes pose a threat for less competitive alpine specialists with ongoing climate change.

Foehn jets over the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica

Previously unknown foehn jets have been identified to the east of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. These jets have major implications for the east coast of the AP, a region of rapid climatic warming and where two large sections of ice shelf have collapsed in recent years. During three foehn events across the AP, leeside warming and drying is seen in new aircraft observations and simulated well by the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) at ∼1.5 km grid spacing. In case A, weak southwesterly flow and an elevated upwind inversion characterise a highly nonlinear flow regime with upwind flow blocking. In case C strong northwesterly winds characterise a relatively linear case with little upwind flow blocking. Case B resides somewhere between the two in flow regime linearity. The foehn jets – apparent in aircraft observations where available and MetUM simulations of all three cases – are mesoscale features (up to 60 km in width) originating from the mouths of leeside inlets. Through back trajectory analysis they are identified as a type of gap flow. In cases A and B the jets are distinct, being strongly accelerated relative to the background flow, and confined to low levels above the Larsen C Ice Shelf. They resemble the ‘shallow foehn’ of the Alps. Case C resembles a case of ‘deep foehn’, with the jets less distinct. The foehn jets are considerably cooler and moister relative to adjacent regions of calmer foehn air. This is due to a dampened foehn effect in the jet regions: in case A the jets have lower upwind source regions, and in the more linear case C there is less diabatic warming and precipitation along jet trajectories due to the reduced orographic uplift across the mountain passes.

The climate of Europe 6000 years ago

Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T c ), growing degree days above 5  °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T c ) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region. Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

A new life in the mountains : changing lifestyles among in-migrants to Wanaka, New Zealand

Mountainous areas with a high dependency on its tourism industry are often relatively small and remote. But some of these areas have faced a population increase due to large in-migration;Wanaka in New Zealand’s Southern Alps is one example. This paper is studying the migration motivations of a few individuals that have moved to Wanaka and how they started to feel like part of their new community. The meaning of the place is important for these newcomers. The results of the study indicate that there is a strong link between the community and the lifestyle that in-migrants are seeking. It also highlights the importance for in-migrants to be a part of the social community. Social Clubs, sport clubs and voluntary work are ways of becoming a part of a social network.

Universaidade em sistemas da mecâniaestatística de não equilíbrio com estados absorventes e percolação geográfica

Complex systems have stimulated much interest in the scientific community in the last twenty years. Examples this area are the Domany-Kinzel cellular automaton and Contact Process that are studied in the first chapter this tesis. We determine the critical behavior of these systems using the spontaneous-search method and short-time dynamics (STD). Ours results confirm that the DKCA e CP belong to universality class of Directed Percolation. In the second chapter, we study the particle difusion in two models of stochastic sandpiles. We characterize the difusion through diffusion constant D, definite through in the relation h(x)2i = 2Dt. The results of our simulations, using finite size scalling and STD, show that the diffusion constant can be used to study critical properties. Both models belong to universality class of Conserved Directed Percolation. We also study that the mean-square particle displacement in time, and characterize its dependence on the initial configuration and particle density. In the third chapter, we introduce a computacional model, called Geographic Percolation, to study watersheds, fractals with aplications in various areas of science. In this model, sites of a network are assigned values between 0 and 1 following a given probability distribution, we order this values, keeping always its localization, and search pk site that percolate network. Once we find this site, we remove it from the network, and search for the next that has the network to percole newly. We repeat these steps until the complete occupation of the network. We study the model in 2 and 3 dimension, and compare the bidimensional case with networks form at start real data (Alps e Himalayas)

Anticancer Effects of Synthetic Phosphoethanolamine on Ehrlich Ascites Tumor: An Experimental Study

Background: Antineoplastic phospholipids (ALPs) represent a promising class of drugs with a novel mode of action undergoes rapid turnover in the cell membrane of tumors, interfering with lipid signal transduction, inducing cell death. The aim of this study was to investigate the synthetic phosphoethanolamine (Pho-s) as a new anticancer agent. Materials and Methods: Cell viability and morphology were assessed by (3-(4,5-Dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT), Hoechst and rhodamine staining. Apoptosis was assessed by Annexin V and propidium iodide (PI) staining, caspase-3 activity, mitochondrial membrane potential (Delta m psi) and cell cycle analysis, combined with evaluation of tumor growth in Ehrlich Ascites Tumor (EAT) bearing mice. Results: We found that Pho-s 2.30 mg/ml induced cytotoxicity in all tumor cell lines studied without affecting normal cells. In vitro studies with EAT cells indicated that Pho-s induced apoptosis, demonstrated by an increase in Annexin-V positive cells, loss of mitochondrial potential (Delta m psi) and increased caspase-3 activity. It was also shown to increase the sub-G(1) apoptotic fraction and inhibit progression to the S phase of the cell cycle. Additionally, antitumor effects on the EAT-bearing mice showed that Pho-s, at a concentration of 35 and 70 mg/kg, inhibited tumor growth and increased the lifespan of animals without causing liver toxicity. Conclusion: These findings suggest that Pho-s is a potential anticancer candidate drug.

The growth of large mafic intrusions: Comparing Niquelandia and Ivrea igneous complexes

The Niquelandia Complex, Brazil, is one of the world's largest mafic-ultramafic plutonic complexes. Like the Mafic Complex of the Ivrea-Verbano Zone, it is affected by a pervasive high-T foliation and shows hypersolidus deformation structures, contains significant inclusions of country-rock paragneiss, and is subdivided into a Lower and an Upper Complex. In this paper, we present new SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages that provide compelling evidence that the Upper and the Lower Niquelandia Complexes formed during the same igneous event at ca. 790 Ma. Coexistence of syn-magmatic and high-T subsolidus deformation structures indicates that both complexes grew incrementally as large crystal mush bodies which were continuously stretched while fed by pulses of fresh magma. Syn-magmatic recrystallization during this deformation resulted in textures and structures which, although appearing metamorphic, are not ascribable to post-magmatic metamorphic event(s), but are instead characteristic of the growth process in huge and deep mafic intrusions such as both the Niquelandia and Ivrea Complexes. Melting of incorporated country-rock paragneiss continued producing hybrid rocks during the last, vanishing stages of magmatic crystallization. This resulted in the formation of minor, late-stage hybrid rocks, whose presence obscures the record of the main processes of interaction between mantle magmas and crustal components, which may be active at the peak of the igneous events and lead to the generation of eruptible hybrid magmas. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapporti tra tettonica e clima durante l'esumazione nelle Alpi Centrali. Evidenze dalla termocronologia e dall'analisi strutturale lungo il traforo ferroviario del Sempione

(U-Th)/He and fission-track analyses of apatite along deep-seated tunnels crossing high-relief mountain ranges offer the opportunity to investigate climate and tectonic forcing on the topographic evolution. In this study, the thermochronologic analysis of a large set of samples collected in the Simplon railway tunnel (western-central Alps; Italy and Switzerland) and along its surface trace, coupled with kinematic and structural analysis of major fault zones intersecting the tunnel, constrains the phenomena controlling the topographic and structural evolution, during the latest stage of exhumation of the Simplon Massif, and the timing in which they operated. The study area is located at the western margin of the Lepontine metamorphic dome where a complex nappe-stack pertaining to the Penninic and Ultrahelvetic domains experienced a fast exhumation from the latest Oligocene onward. The exhumation was mainly accommodated by a west-dipping low-angle detachment (the Simplon Fault Zone) which is located just 8 km to the west of the tunnel. However, along the section itself several faults related to two principal phases both with important dip-slip kinematics have been detected. Cooling rates derived from our thermocronological data vary from about 10 °C/Ma at about 10 Ma to about 35 °C/Ma in the last 5 Ma. Such increase in the cooling rate corresponds to the most important climatic change recorded in the northern hemisphere in the last 10 Ma, i.e. the shift to wetter conditions at the end of the Messinian salinity crisis and the inception of glacial cycles in the northern hemisphere. In addition, (U-Th)/He and fission-track age patterns lack of important correlation with the topography suggesting that the present-day relief morphology is the result of recent erosional dynamics. More in details, the (U-Th)/He tunnel ages show an impressive uniformity at 2 Ma, whereas cooling rates calculated at 1 Ma increase towards the two major valleys. This indicates a focusing of erosive processes in the valleys which led to the shaping of present-day topography. Structural analysis documents the presence of two phases of brittle deformation postdating the metamorphic phases in the area. The first one is directly related to the last phase of activity along the Simplon Fault Zone and is characterized by extension towards SO and vertical shortening. The young one is characterized by extension towards NO and horizontal shortening in a along the NE-SO direction. Structures related to the first phase of brittle deformation generate important variations in the older ages' dataset, until 3 Ma, suggesting that tectonics controlled rocks exhumation up to that age. Structures related to the second phase generate some variations also in the younger age dataset, highlighting the activity of faults bordering the massif and suggesting a continuous activity also after 2 Ma. However, most of (U-Th)/He tunnel ages, varying slightly around 2 Ma, document that the Simplon area has experienced primarily erosional exhumation in this time span. In conclusion, all our data suggest that in the central Italian Alps the climatic signal gradually overrode the tectonic effects after about 5 Ma, as a consequence of the climatic instability started at end of Messinian salinity crisis and improved by the onset of glaciations in the northern hemisphere.

Molecular diversity of Primula apennina and phylogeny of Primula Subsection Euauricula

Primula apennina Widmer is endemic to the North Apennines (Italy). ISSR were used to detect the genetic diversity within and among six populations representative of the species distribution range. High levels of genetic diversity were revealed both at population (PPB = 75.92%, HS = 0.204, Hpop = 0.319) and at species level (PPB = 96.95%, HT = 0.242, Hsp = 0.381). Nei gene diversity statistics (15.7%), Shannon diversity index (16.3%) and AMOVA (14%) detected a moderate level of interpopulation diversity. Principal coordinate and bayesian analyses clustered the populations in three major groups along a geographic gradient. The correlation between genetic and geographic distances was positive (Mantel test, r = 0.232). All together, these analyses revealed a weak but significant spatial genetic structure in P. apennina, with gene flow acting as a homogenizing force that prevents a stronger differentiation of populations. Conservation measures are suggested based on the observed pattern of genetic variability. P. apennina belongs to Primula subsect. Euauricula which includes 15 species distributed on the whole Alps and Apennines. A phylogenetic analysis was carried out using AFLP markers in order both to clarify the relationships among the species of subsection Euauricula that remained unresolved in previous works and to make some hypoteses on their evolutive dynamics. NJ, PCO and BAPS analyses strongly confirmed the monophyly of P. subsect. Euauricula and all the species form strongly supported clades. NJ tree topology suggested a simultaneous fragmentations of ancestral species in a large number of isolated populations that survived in refugia along the unglaciated margins of the Alps in response to the Pleistocene climatic oscillations.

Kinematics of fibrous aggregates

This thesis reports on a research into the progressive development of fibrous aggregates, e.g. calcite, quartz and mica crystals in veins and strain fringes. The study is based on microstructural analysis of natural examples and on computer experiments. Investigation of fibrous looking elongate crystals in striped bedding-veins from the Orobic Alps, Italy indicate that these crystals do not track the opening trajectory of the veins but are oriented at an angle of up to 80° to the opening direction. Microstructural analysis of quartz, calcite and chlorite fibres in antitaxial strain fringes indicate that most strain fringes contain complex intergrowth of tracking (displacement-controlled) and non-tracking (face-controlled) fibres. To explain these growth features the computer program

Geological evolution of the Monte Rosa

Eine detaillierte geochemische und geochronologische Studie an Gesteinen der Monte Rosa Decke (MR; Westalpen) wurde durchgeführt. Die MR wurde während der alpinen Orogenese zunächst eklogitfaziell und nachfolgend grünschieferfaziell überprägt.Eine detaillierte U-Pb geochronologische Studie an Zirkonen und Monaziten des MR Granits ergab ein Permisches Intrusionsalter (270 ± 4 Ma). Der MR Granit gehört zu den post-variszischen magmatischen Einheiten, welche die Instabilität der variszischen kontinentalen Kruste andeuten. Für die MR kann eine paläogeographische Position als Teil der 'Briançonnais-Schwelle' angenommen werden.Innerhalb des MR Granits treten Talk-Kyanit-Chloritoid-Gesteine ('Weißschiefer') auf. Diese stellen wesentliche Indikatoren für eine alpine Hochdruckmetamorphose in der MR dar. Massenbilanzberechnungen wurden durchgeführt, um den Massentransfer zu quantifizieren, welcher für die Bildung eines Weißschiefers aus einem granitischen Protolith notwendig ist. Ein Modell für die Entwicklung der Weißschiefer wurde entwickelt.Es wurde eine in-situ 40Ar/39Ar UV-Laser-Ablationsstudie an Hellglimmern der alpinen Mineralparagenese durchgeführt. Sie ergab eine heterogene Altersverteilung. Diese Alter können durch Glimmerrekristallisation unter relativ 'trockenen' hochdruckmetamorphen Bedingungen begleitet von partiellem Verlust von radiogenem Argon während der alpinen Metamorphose erklärt werden. Eine ähnlich komplexe Entwicklung mit partieller Homogenisierung des Isotopensystems kann in der Strontium-Isotopie beobachtet werden. Diese Isotopenstudien liefern Hinweise auf das Schließverhalten von Isotopensystemen unter hochdruckmetamorphen Bedingungen.

Analisi della dinamica e composizione chimica del particolato atmosferico mediante un modello alla mesoscala

The vertical profile of aerosol in the planetary boundary layer of the Milan urban area is studied in terms of its development and chemical composition in a high-resolution modelling framework. The period of study spans a week in summer of 2007 (12-18 July), when continuous LIDAR measurements and a limited set of balloon profiles were collected in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project. LIDAR observations show a diurnal development of an aerosol plume that lifts early morning surface emissions to the top of the boundary layer, reaching maximum concentration around midday. Mountain breeze from Alps clean the bottom of the aerosol layer, typically leaving a residual layer at around 1500-2000 m which may survive for several days. During the last two days under analysis, a dust layer transported from Sahara reaches the upper layers of Milan area and affects the aerosol vertical distribution in the boundary layer. Simulation from the MM5/CHIMERE modelling system, carried out at 1 km horizontal resolution, qualitatively reproduced the general features of the Milan aerosol layer observed with LIDAR, including the rise and fall of the aersol plume, the residual layer in altitude and the Saharan dust event. The simulation highlighted the importance of nitrates and secondary organics in its composition. Several sensitivity tests showed that main driving factors leading to the dominance of nitrates in the plume are temperature and gas absorption process. A modelling study turn to the analysis of the vertical aerosol profiles distribution and knowledge of the characterization of the PM at a site near the city of Milan is performed using a model system composed by a meteorological model MM5 (V3-6), the mesoscale model from PSU/NCAR and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM) CHIMERE to simulate the vertical aerosol profile. LiDAR continuous observations and balloon profiles collected during two intensive campaigns in summer 2007 and in winter 2008 in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project have been used to perform comparisons in order to evaluate the ability of the aerosol chemistry transport model CHIMERE to simulate the aerosols dynamics and compositions in this area. The comparisons of model aerosols with measurements are carried out over a full time period between 12 July 2007 and 18 July 2007. The comparisons demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce correctly the aerosol vertical distributions and their temporal variability. As detected by the LiDAR, the model during the period considered, predicts a diurnal development of a plume during the morning and a clearing during the afternoon, typically the plume reaches the top of the boundary layer around mid day, in this time CHIMERE produces highest concentrations in the upper levels as detected by LiDAR. The model, moreover can reproduce LiDAR observes enhancement aerosols concentrations above the boundary layer, attributing the phenomena to dust out intrusion. Another important information from the model analysis regard the composition , it predicts that a large part of the plume is composed by nitrate, in particular during 13 and 16 July 2007 , pointing to the model tendency to overestimates the nitrous component in the particular matter vertical structure . Sensitivity study carried out in this work show that there are a combination of different factor which determine the major nitrous composition of the “plume” observed and in particular humidity temperature and the absorption phenomena are the mainly candidate to explain the principal difference in composition simulated in the period object of this study , in particular , the CHIMERE model seems to be mostly sensitive to the absorption process.