Threshold detection: matching statistical methodology to ecological questions and conservation planning objectives

Two types of ecological thresholds are now being widely used to develop conservation targets: breakpoint-based thresholds represent tipping points where system properties change dramatically, whereas classification thresholds identify groups of data points with contrasting properties. Both breakpoint-based and classification thresholds are useful tools in evidence-based conservation. However, it is critical that the type of threshold to be estimated corresponds with the question of interest and that appropriate statistical procedures are used to determine its location. On the basis of their statistical properties, we recommend using piecewise regression methods to identify breakpoint-based thresholds and discriminant analysis or classification and regression trees to identify classification thresholds.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this ‘‘trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests – above vs. below ground – significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change.

Managing invasive alien species with professional and hobby farmers: insights from ecological-economic modelling

Biosecurity is a great challenge to policy-makers globally. Biosecurity policies aim to either prevent invasions before they occur or to eradicate and/or effectively manage the invasive species and diseases once an invasion has occurred. Such policies have traditionally been directed towards professional producers in natural resource based sectors, including agriculture. Given the wide scope of issues threatened by invasive species and diseases, it is important to account for several types of stakeholders that are involved. We investigate the problem of an invasive insect pest feeding on an agricultural crop with heterogeneous producers: profit-oriented professional farmers and utility-oriented hobby farmers. We start from an ecological-economic model conceptually similar to the one developed by Eiswerth and Johnson [Eiswerth, M.E. and Johnson, W.S., 2002. Managing nonindigenous invasive species: insights from dynamic analysis. Environmental and Resource Economics 23, 319-342.] and extend it in three ways. First, we make explicit the relationship between the invaded state carrying capacity and farmers' planting decisions. Second, we add another producer type into the framework and hence account for the existence of both professional and hobby fanners. Third, we provide a theoretical contribution by discussing two alternative types of equilibria. We also apply the model to an empirical case to extract a number of stylised facts and in particular to assess: a) under which circumstances the invasion is likely to be not controllable; and b) how extending control policies to hobby farmers could affect both types of producers. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological specificity of arbuscular mycorrhizae: evidence from foliar- and seed-feeding insects

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have a variety of effects on foliar-feeding insects, with the majority of these being positive, although reports of negative and null effects also exist. Virtually all previous experiments have used mobile insects confined in cages and have studied the effects of one, or at most two, species of mycorrhizae on one species of insect. The purpose of this study was to introduce a greater level of realism into insect-mycorrhizal experiments, by studying the responses of different insect feeding guilds to a variety of AM fungi. We conducted two experiments involving three species of relatively immobile insects (a leaf-mining and two seed-feeding flies) reared in natural conditions on a host (Leucanthemum vulgare). In a field study, natural levels of AM colonization were reduced, while in a phytometer trial, we experimentally colonized host plants with all possible combinations of three known mycorrhizal associates of L. vulgare. In general, AM fungi increased the stature (height and leaf number) and nitrogen content of plants. However, these effects changed through the season and were,dependent on the identity of the fungi in the root system. AM fungi increased host acceptance of all three insects and larval performance of the leaf miner, but these effects were also season- and AM species-dependent. We suggest that the mycorrhizal effect on the performance of the leaf miner is due to fungal-induced changes in host-plant nitrogen content, detected by the adult fly. However, variability in the effect was apparent, because not all AM species increased plant N content. Meanwhile, positive effects of mycorrhizae were found on flower number and flower size, and these appeared to result in enhanced infestation levels by the seed-feeding insects. The results show that AM fungi exhibit ecological specificity, in that different. species have different effects on host-plant growth and chemistry and the performance of foliar-feeding insects. Future studies need to conduct experiments that use ecologically realistic combinations of plants and fungi and allow insects to be reared in natural conditions.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

The ecological niche of Daphnia magna characterized using population growth rate

The concept of an organism's niche is central to ecological theory, but an operational definition is needed that allows both its experimental delineation and interpretation of field distributions of the species. Here we use population growth rate (hereafter, pgr) to de. ne the niche as the set of points in niche space where pgr. 0. If there are just two axes to the niche space, their relationship to pgr can be pictured as a contour map in which pgr varies along the axes in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. In laboratory experiments we measured the pgr of Daphnia magna over a grid of values of pH and Ca2+, and so defined its "laboratory niche'' in pH-Ca2+ space. The position of the laboratory niche boundary suggests that population persistence is only possible above 0.5 mg Ca2+/L and between pH 5.75 and pH 9, though more Ca2+ is needed at lower pH values. To see how well the measured niche predicts the field distribution of D. magna, we examined relevant field data from 422 sites in England and Wales. Of the 58 colonized water bodies, 56 lay within the laboratory niche. Very few of the sites near the niche boundary were colonized, probably because pgr there is so low that populations are vulnerable to extinction by other factors. Our study shows how the niche can be quantified and used to predict field distributions successfully.

Population performance of collembolans feeding on soil fungi from different ecological niches

The potential reproductive value of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Gloinus intraradices and Glomus invermaium), root pathogenic fungi (Rhizoctonia solani and Fusarium culmorum) and saprotrophic fungi (Penicillium hordei and Trichoderma harzianum) were examined for the collembolans Folsomia candida Willem and Folsomia fimetaria L. Dried baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used as a reference standard food in laboratory cultures. Collembolan performance was determined as final size, fecundity and population growth rate after when fed the fungal food sources for 31 days. The mycorrhizal fungi gave the least growth and fecundity compared with the other fungi, but G. intraradices gave good fecundity for F. candida. In terms of growth, Baker's yeast was a high-quality food for both adults and juveniles of both species, but it was a poorer food in terms of fecundity of F. candida. Preference of the fungi in all possible pairwise combinations showed that although F. fimetaria did not perform well on Glomus spp. and F. candida did not grow well on Glomus spp. their preference for these fungi did not reflect this. The highest fecundity was seen with the root pathogen F. culmorum. Different quality indicators such as the C:N ratio of the fungal food sources as well as other biological parameters are discussed in relation to their reproductive value and Collembola preferential feeding. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Making ecological science policy relevant: issues of scale and disciplinary integration

In this paper, we ask why so much ecological scientific research does not have a greater policy impact in the UK. We argue that there are two potentially important and related reasons for this failing. First, much current ecological science is not being conducted at a scale that is readily meaningful to policy-makers. Second, to make much of this research policy-relevant requires collaborative interdisciplinary research between ecologists and social scientists. However, the challenge of undertaking useful interdisciplinary research only re-emphasises the problems of scale: ecologists and social scientists traditionally frame their research questions at different scales and consider different facets of natural resource management, setting different objectives and using different language. We argue that if applied ecological research is to have greater impact in informing environmental policy, much greater attention needs to be given to the scale of the research efforts as well as to the interaction with social scientists. Such an approach requires an adjustment in existing research and funding infrastructures.