Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Adaptive Algorithms for Personalized Diabetes Treatment

Dynamic systems, especially in real-life applications, are often determined by inter-/intra-variability, uncertainties and time-varying components. Physiological systems are probably the most representative example in which population variability, vital signal measurement noise and uncertain dynamics render their explicit representation and optimization a rather difficult task. Systems characterized by such challenges often require the use of adaptive algorithmic solutions able to perform an iterative structural and/or parametrical update process towards optimized behavior. Adaptive optimization presents the advantages of (i) individualization through learning of basic system characteristics, (ii) ability to follow time-varying dynamics and (iii) low computational cost. In this chapter, the use of online adaptive algorithms is investigated in two basic research areas related to diabetes management: (i) real-time glucose regulation and (ii) real-time prediction of hypo-/hyperglycemia. The applicability of these methods is illustrated through the design and development of an adaptive glucose control algorithm based on reinforcement learning and optimal control and an adaptive, personalized early-warning system for the recognition and alarm generation against hypo- and hyperglycemic events.

Outline of a theory of efficient teams in Sport.

Introduction So far, social psychology in sport has preliminary focused on team cohesion, and many studies and meta-analyses tried to demonstrate a relation between cohesiveness of a team and its performance. How a team really co-operates and how the individual actions are integrated towards a team action is a question that has received relatively little attention in research. This may, at least in part, be due to a lack of a theoretical framework for collective actions, a dearth that has only recently begun to challenge sport psychologists. Objectives In this presentation a framework for a comprehensive theory of teams in sport is outlined and its potential to integrate research in the domain of team performance and, more specifically, the following presentations, is put up for discussion. Method Based on a model developed by von Cranach, Ochsenbein and Valach (1986), teams are considered to be information processing organisms, and team actions need to be investigated on two levels: the individual team member and the group as an entity. Elements to be considered are the task, the social structure, the information processing structure and the execution structure. Obviously, different task require different social structures, communication processes and co-ordination of individual movements. Especially in rapid interactive sports planning and execution of movements based on feedback loops are not possible. Deliberate planning may be a solution mainly for offensive actions, whereas defensive actions have to adjust to the opponent team's actions. Consequently, mental representations must be developed to allow a feed-forward regulation of team member's actions. Results and Conclusions Some preliminary findings based on this conceptual framework as well as further consequences for empirical investigations will be presented. References Cranach, M.v., Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

RADIX: a minimal-resources rapid-access drilling system

Determining the expected age at a potential ice-core drilling site on a polar ice sheet generally depends on a combination of information from remote-sensing methods, estimates of current accumulation and modelling. This poses irreducible uncertainties in retrieving an undisturbed ice core of the desired age. Although recently perfected radar techniques will improve the picture of the ice sheet below future drilling sites, rapid prospective drillings could further increase the success of deep drilling projects. Here we design and explore a drilling system for a minimum-size rapid-access hole. The advantages of a small hole are the low demand for drilling fluid, low overall weight of the equipment, fast installing and de-installing and low costs. We show that, in theory, drilling of a 20mm hole to a depth of 3000m is possible in ~4 days. First concepts have been realized and verified in the field. Both the drill cuttings and the hole itself can be used to characterize the properties of the ice sheet and its potential to provide a trustworthy palaeo-record. A candidate drilling site could be explored in ~2 weeks, which would enable the characterization of several sites in one summer season.

A feasible theory of truth over combinatory algebra

We define an applicative theory of truth TPT which proves totality exactly for the polynomial time computable functions. TPT has natural and simple axioms since nearly all its truth axioms are standard for truth theories over an applicative framework. The only exception is the axiom dealing with the word predicate. The truth predicate can only reflect elementhood in the words for terms that have smaller length than a given word. This makes it possible to achieve the very low proof-theoretic strength. Truth induction can be allowed without any constraints. For these reasons the system TPT has the high expressive power one expects from truth theories. It allows embeddings of feasible systems of explicit mathematics and bounded arithmetic. The proof that the theory TPT is feasible is not easy. It is not possible to apply a standard realisation approach. For this reason we develop a new realisation approach whose realisation functions work on directed acyclic graphs. In this way, we can express and manipulate realisation information more efficiently.

Psychosocial aspects in cardiac rehabilitation: From theory to practice. A position paper from the Cardiac Rehabilitation Section of the European Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation of the European Society of Cardiology

A large body of empirical research shows that psychosocial risk factors (PSRFs) such as low socio-economic status, social isolation, stress, type-D personality, depression and anxiety increase the risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and also contribute to poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and prognosis in patients with established CHD. PSRFs may also act as barriers to lifestyle changes and treatment adherence and may moderate the effects of cardiac rehabilitation (CR). Furthermore, there appears to be a bidirectional interaction between PSRFs and the cardiovascular system. Stress, anxiety and depression affect the cardiovascular system through immune, neuroendocrine and behavioural pathways. In turn, CHD and its associated treatments may lead to distress in patients, including anxiety and depression. In clinical practice, PSRFs can be assessed with single-item screening questions, standardised questionnaires, or structured clinical interviews. Psychotherapy and medication can be considered to alleviate any PSRF-related symptoms and to enhance HRQoL, but the evidence for a definite beneficial effect on cardiac endpoints is inconclusive. A multimodal behavioural intervention, integrating counselling for PSRFs and coping with illness should be included within comprehensive CR. Patients with clinically significant symptoms of distress should be referred for psychological counselling or psychologically focused interventions and/or psychopharmacological treatment. To conclude, the success of CR may critically depend on the interdependence of the body and mind and this interaction needs to be reflected through the assessment and management of PSRFs in line with robust scientific evidence, by trained staff, integrated within the core CR team.

Exploring occasion specificity in the assessment of DSM-5 maladaptive personality traits: A latent state-trait theory analysis.

The alternative classification system for personality disorders in DSM-5 features a hierarchical model of maladaptive personality traits. This trait model comprises five broad trait domains and 25 specific trait facets that can be reliably assessed using the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5). Although there is a steadily growing literature on the validity of the PID-5, issues of temporal stability and situational influences on test scores are currently unexplored. We addressed these issues using a sample of 611 research participants who completed the PID-5 three times, with time intervals of two months. Latent state-trait (LST) analyses for each of the 25 PID-5 trait facets showed that, on average, 79.5% of the variance was due to stable traits (i.e., consistency), and 7.7% of the variance was due to situational factors (i.e., occasion specificity). Our findings suggest that the PID-5 trait facets predominantly capture individual differences that are stable across time.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

Contemporary ecotypic divergence during a recent range expansion was facilitated by adaptive introgression

Although rapid phenotypic evolution during range expansion associated with colonization of contrasting habitats has been documented in several taxa, the evolutionary mechanisms that underlie such phenotypic divergence have less often been investigated. A strong candidate for rapid ecotype formation within an invaded range is the three-spine stickleback in the Lake Geneva region of central Europe. Since its introduction only about 140 years ago, it has undergone a significant expansion of its range and its niche, now forming phenotypically differentiated parapatric ecotypes that occupy either the pelagic zone of the large lake or small inlet streams, respectively. By comparing museum collections from different times with contemporary population samples, we here reconstruct the evolution of parapatric phenotypic divergence through time. Using genetic data from modern samples, we infer the underlying invasion history. We find that parapatric habitat-dependent phenotypic divergence between the lake and stream was already present in the first half of the twentieth century, but the magnitude of differentiation increased through time, particularly in antipredator defence traits. This suggests that divergent selection between the habitats occurred and was stable through much of the time since colonization. Recently, increased phenotypic differentiation in antipredator defence traits likely results from habitat-dependent selection on alleles that arrived through introgression from a distantly related lineage from outside the Lake Geneva region. This illustrates how hybridization can quickly promote phenotypic divergence in a system where adaptation from standing genetic variation was constrained.

The M-theory origin of global properties of gauge theories

We show that global properties of gauge groups can be understood as geometric properties in M-theory. Different wrappings of a system of N M5-branes on a torus reduce to four-dimensional theories with AN−1 gauge algebra and different unitary groups. The classical properties of the wrappings determine the global properties of the gauge theories without the need to impose any quantum conditions. We count the inequivalent wrappings as they fall into orbits of the modular group of the torus, which correspond to the S-duality orbits of the gauge theories.

Concepts of Bitemporal Database Theory and the Evolution of Web-Documents

A vast amount of temporal information is provided on the Web. Even though many facts expressed in documents are time-related, the temporal properties of Web presentations have not received much attention. In database research, temporal databases have become a mainstream topic in recent years. In Web documents, temporal data may exist as meta data in the header and as user-directed data in the body of a document. Whereas temporal data can easily be identified in the semi-structured meta data, it is more difficult to determine temporal data and its role in the body. We propose procedures for maintaining temporal integrity of Web pages and outline different approaches of applying bitemporal data concepts for Web documents. In particular, we regard desirable functionalities of Web repositories and other Web-related tools that may support the Webmasters in managing the temporal data of their Web documents. Some properties of a prototype environment are described.

AN OCCUPATIONAL INJURY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS HEALTH SCIENCE CENTER AT HOUSTON

The purpose of this research and development project was to develop a method, a design, and a prototype for gathering, managing, and presenting data about occupational injuries.^ State-of-the-art systems analysis and design methodologies were applied to the long standing problem in the field of occupational safety and health of processing workplace injuries data into information for safety and health program management as well as preliminary research about accident etiologies. The top-down planning and bottom-up implementation approach was utilized to design an occupational injury management information system. A description of a managerial control system and a comprehensive system to integrate safety and health program management was provided.^ The project showed that current management information systems (MIS) theory and methods could be applied successfully to the problems of employee injury surveillance and control program performance evaluation. The model developed in the first section was applied at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHSCH).^ The system in current use at the UTHSCH was described and evaluated, and a prototype was developed for the UTHSCH. The prototype incorporated procedures for collecting, storing, and retrieving records of injuries and the procedures necessary to prepare reports, analyses, and graphics for management in the Health Science Center. Examples of reports, analyses, and graphics presenting UTHSCH and computer generated data were included.^ It was concluded that a pilot test of this MIS should be implemented and evaluated at the UTHSCH and other settings. Further research and development efforts for the total safety and health management information systems, control systems, component systems, and variable selection should be pursued. Finally, integration of the safety and health program MIS into the comprehensive or executive MIS was recommended. ^

AN ASCENDING SEROTONERGIC PAIN MODULATION SYSTEM

This dissertation describes an ascending serotonergic pain modulation system projecting from the dorsal raphe (DR) nucleus of the midbrain to the parafascicularis (PF) nucleus of the thalamus. Previous studies by other investigators have led to the hypothesis that the DR would modulate responses to noxious stimuli in the PF by using 5HT. These other studies have shown that the DR contains serotonergic (5HT) cell bodies which project to many areas of the forebrain including the PF, that the PF is involved in pain perception, that electrical stimulation of the DR causes analgesia, and 5HT is necessary for this type of analgesia. One theory of the mechanisms of an endogenous pain modulation system is that brainstem nuclei have a decsending projection to the spinal cord to inhibit responses to noxious input at this level. The present study tests the hypothesis that there is also an ascending pain modulation pathway from the brainstem to the thalamus.^ To test this hypothesis, several types of experiments were performed on anesthetised rats. The major results of the experiments are as follows: (1) Three types of spontaneously active PF neurons were found: slow units firing at 1-10 spikes/sec, bursting units firing 2-5 times in 10-20 msec, pattern repeating every 1-2 sec, and fast units firing at 15-40 spikes/sec. The first two groups showed similar results to the treatments and were analysed together. The fast firing units did not respond to any of the treatments. (2) Noxious stimuli primarily increased neuronal firing rates in the PF, where as DR stimulation primarily decreased neuronal activity. DR stimulation applied simultaneously with noxious stimuli decreased the responses to the noxious stimuli as recorded in the PF units. (3) Microiontophoretically applied 5HT in the PF decreased spontaneous activity in the PF in a dose dependent manner and decreases responses to noxious stimuli in the PF. (4) Reduction of brain 5HT by 5,7 dihydroxytryptamine, a potent 5HT neurotoxin, caused PF units to be hypersensitive to both noxious and non noxious stimuli, reversed the effects of DR stimulation so that DR stimulation increased single units activity in the PF, and prolonged and intensified the depressant action of microiontophoretically applied 5HT. The results of this study are consistent with the hypothesis that the DR uses 5HT in a direct ascending pathway to the PF to modulate pain in the thalamus. ^

Evaluating the impact of vertical integration on health system peformance

Vertical integration is grounded in economic theory as a corporate strategy for reducing cost and enhancing efficiency. There were three purposes for this dissertation. The first was to describe and understand vertical integration theory. The review of the economic theory established vertical integration as a corporate cost reduction strategy in response to environmental, structural and performance dimensions of the market. The second purpose was to examine vertical integration in the context of the health care industry, which has greater complexity, higher instability, and more unstable demand than other industries, although many of the same dimensions of the market supported a vertical integration strategy. Evidence on the performance of health systems after integration revealed mixed results. Because the market continues to be turbulent, hybrid non-owned integration in the form of alliances have increased to over 40% of urban hospitals. The third purpose of the study was to examine the application of vertical integration in health care and evaluate the effects. The case studied was an alliance formed between a community hospital and a tertiary medical center to facilitate vertical integration of oncology services while maintaining effectiveness and preserving access. The economic benefits for 1934 patients were evaluated in the delivery system before and after integration with a more detailed economic analysis of breast, lung, colon/rectal, and non-malignant cases. A regression analysis confirmed the relationship between the independent variables of age, sex, location of services, race, stage of disease, and diagnosis, and the dependent variable, cost. The results of the basic regression model, as well as the regression with first-order interaction terms, were statistically significant. The study shows that vertical integration at an intermediate health care system level has economic benefits. If the pre-integration oncology group had been treated in the post-integration model, the expected cost savings from integration would be 31.5%. Quality indicators used were access to health care services and research treatment protocols, and access was preserved in the integrated model. Using survival as a direct quality outcome measure, the survival of lung cancer patients was statistically the same before and after integration. ^

The Texas driver responsibility program: A preliminary analysis of the impact on impaired driving and trauma system funding

Objective. In 2003, the State of Texas instituted the Driver Responsibility Program (TDRP), a program consisting of a driving infraction point system coupled with a series of graded fines and annual surcharges for specific traffic violations such as driving while intoxicated (DWI). Approximately half of the revenues generated are earmarked to be disbursed to the state's trauma system to cover uncompensated trauma care costs. This study examined initial program implementation, the impact of trauma system funding, and initial impact on impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. A model for targeted media campaigns to improve the program's deterrence effects was developed. ^ Methods. Data from two independent driver survey samples (conducted in 1999 and 2005), department of public safety records, state health department data and a state auditor's report were used to evaluate the program's initial implementation, impact and outcome with respect to drivers' impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behavior (based on constructs of social cognitive theory) and hospital uncompensated trauma care funding. Survey results were used to develop a regression model of high risk drivers who should be targeted to improve program outcome with respect to deterring impaired driving. ^ Results. Low driver compliance with fee payment (28%) and program implementation problems were associated with lower surcharge revenues in the first two years ($59.5 million versus $525 million predicted). Program revenue distribution to trauma hospitals was associated with a 16% increase in designated trauma centers. Survey data demonstrated that only 28% of drivers are aware of the TDRP and that there has been no initial impact on impaired driving behavior. Logistical regression modeling suggested that target media campaigns highlighting the likelihood of DWI detection by law enforcement and the increased surcharges associated with the TDRP are required to deter impaired driving. ^ Conclusions. Although the TDRP raised nearly $60 million in surcharge revenue for the Texas trauma system over the first two years, this study did not find evidence of a change in impaired driving knowledge, attitudes or behaviors from 1999 to 2005. Further research is required to measure whether the program is associated with decreased alcohol-related traffic fatalities. ^