Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Natural disasters, economic growth and sustainable development in China: an empirical study using provincial panel data

Using a newly developed integrated indicator system with entropy weighting, we analyzed the panel data of 577 recorded disasters in 30 provinces of China from 1985–2011 to identify their links with the subsequent economic growth. Meteorological disasters promote economic growth through human capital instead of physical capital. Geological disasters did not trigger local economic growth from 1999–2011. Generally, natural disasters overall had no significant impact on economic growth from 1985–1998. Thus, human capital reinvestment should be the aim in managing recoveries, and it should be used to regenerate the local economy based on long-term sustainable development.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.

Reappraisal of the effective elastic thickness for the sub-Andes using 3-D finite element flexural modelling, gravity and geological constraints

P>Estimates of effective elastic thickness (T(e)) for the western portion of the South American Plate using, independently, forward flexural modelling and coherence analysis, suggest different thermomechanical properties for the same continental lithosphere. We present a review of these T(e) estimates and carry out a critical reappraisal using a common methodology of 3-D finite element method to solve a differential equation for the bending of a thin elastic plate. The finite element flexural model incorporates lateral variations of T(e) and the Andes topography as the load. Three T(e) maps for the entire Andes were analysed: Stewart & Watts (1997), Tassara et al. (2007) and Perez-Gussinye et al. (2007). The predicted flexural deformation obtained for each T(e) map was compared with the depth to the base of the foreland basin sequence. Likewise, the gravity effect of flexurally induced crust-mantle deformation was compared with the observed Bouguer gravity. T(e) estimates using forward flexural modelling by Stewart & Watts (1997) better predict the geological and gravity data for most of the Andean system, particularly in the Central Andes, where T(e) ranges from greater than 70 km in the sub-Andes to less than 15 km under the Andes Cordillera. The misfit between the calculated and observed foreland basin subsidence and the gravity anomaly for the Maranon basin in Peru and the Bermejo basin in Argentina, regardless of the assumed T(e) map, may be due to a dynamic topography component associated with the shallow subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the Andes at these latitudes.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variety matters: adaptive genetic diversity and parasite load in two mouse opossums from the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The adaptive potential of a species to a changing environment and in disease defence is primarily based on genetic variation. Immune genes, such as genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), may thereby be of particular importance. In marsupials, however, there is very little knowledge about natural levels and functional importance of MHC polymorphism, despite their key role in the mammalian evolution. In a previous study, we discovered remarkable differences in the MHC class II diversity between two species of mouse opossums (Gracilinanus microtarsus, Marmosops incanus) from the Brazilian Atlantic forest, which is one of the most endangered hotspots for biodiversity conservation. Since the main forces in generating MHC diversity are assumed to be pathogens, we investigated in this study gastrointestinal parasite burden and functional associations between the individual MHC constitution and parasite load. We tested two contrasting scenarios, which might explain differences in MHC diversity between species. We predicted that a species with low MHC diversity would either be under relaxed selection pressure by low parasite diversity (`Evolutionary equilibrium` scenario), or there was a recent loss in MHC diversity leading to a lack of resistance alleles and increased parasite burden (`Unbalanced situation` scenario). In both species it became apparent that the MHC class II is functionally important in defence against gastrointestinal helminths, which was shown here for the first time in marsupials. On the population level, parasite diversity did not markedly differ between the two host species. However, we did observe considerable differences in the individual parasite load (parasite prevalence and infection intensity): while M. incanus revealed low MHC DAB diversity and high parasite load, G. microtarsus showed a tenfold higher population wide MHC DAB diversity and lower parasite burden. These results support the second scenario of an unbalanced situation.

Head shape evolution in Tropidurinae lizards: does locomotion constrain diet?

Different components of complex integrated systems may be specialized for different functions, and thus the selective pressures acting on the system as a whole may be conflicting and can ultimately constrain organismal performance and evolution. The vertebrate cranial system is one of the most striking examples of a complex system with several possible functions, being associated to activities as different as locomotion, prey capture, display and defensive behaviours. Therefore, selective pressures on the cranial system as a whole are possibly complex and may be conflicting. The present study focuses on the influence of potentially conflicting selective pressures (diet vs. locomotion) on the evolution of head shape in Tropidurinae lizards. For example, the expected adaptations leading to flat heads and bodies in species living on vertical structures may conflict with the need for improved bite performance associated with the inclusion of hard or tough prey into the diet, a common phenomenon in Tropidurinae lizards. Body size and six variables describing head shape were quantified in preserved specimens of 23 species, and information on diet and substrate usage was obtained from the literature. No phylogenetic signal was observed in the morphological data at any branch length tested, suggesting adaptive evolution of head shape in Tropidurinae. This pattern was confirmed by both factor analysis and independent contrast analysis, which suggested adaptive co-variation between the head shape and the inclusion of hard prey into the diet. In contrast to our expectations, habitat use did not constrain or drive head shape evolution in the group.

Entropy-Based Approach to Analyze and Classify Mineral Aggregates

This paper presents an automatic method to detect and classify weathered aggregates by assessing changes of colors and textures. The method allows the extraction of aggregate features from images and the automatic classification of them based on surface characteristics. The concept of entropy is used to extract features from digital images. An analysis of the use of this concept is presented and two classification approaches, based on neural networks architectures, are proposed. The classification performance of the proposed approaches is compared to the results obtained by other algorithms (commonly considered for classification purposes). The obtained results confirm that the presented method strongly supports the detection of weathered aggregates.

Gaining ligand selectivity in thyroid hormone receptors via entropy

Nuclear receptors are important targets for pharmaceuticals, but similarities between family members cause difficulties in obtaining highly selective compounds. Synthetic ligands that are selective for thyroid hormone (TH) receptor beta (TR beta) vs. TR alpha reduce cholesterol and fat without effects on heart rate; thus, it is important to understand TR beta-selective binding. Binding of 3 selective ligands (GC-1, KB141, and GC-24) is characterized at the atomic level; preferential binding depends on a nonconserved residue (Asn-331 beta) in the TR beta ligand-binding cavity (LBC), and GC-24 gains extra selectivity from insertion of a bulky side group into an extension of the LBC that only opens up with this ligand. Here we report that the natural TH 3,5,3`-triodothyroacetic acid (Triac) exhibits a previously unrecognized mechanism of TR beta selectivity. TR x-ray structures reveal better fit of ligand with the TR alpha LBC. The TR beta LBC, however, expands relative to TR alpha in the presence of Triac (549 angstrom(3) vs. 461 angstrom(3)), and molecular dynamics simulations reveal that water occupies the extra space. Increased solvation compensates for weaker interactions of ligand with TR beta and permits greater flexibility of the Triac carboxylate group in TR beta than in TR alpha. We propose that this effect results in lower entropic restraint and decreases free energy of interactions between Triac and TR beta, explaining subtype-selective binding. Similar effects could potentially be exploited in nuclear receptor drug design.

Age and geochemistry of mantle peridotites and diorite dykes from the Baldissero body: Insights into the Paleozoic-Mesozoic evolution of the Southern Alps

Trace element and isotopic data obtained for mantle spinel Iherzolites and diorite dykes from the Baldissero massif (Ivrea-Verbano Zone, Western Italy) provide new, valuable constraints on the petrologic and geodynamic evolution of the Southern Alps in Paleozoic to Mesozoic times. Whole rock and mineral chemistry indicates that Baldissero Iherzolites can be regarded as refractory mantle residues following limited melt extraction. In particular, the Light Rare Earth Elements (LREE)-depleted and fractionated compositions of whole rock and clinopyroxene closely match modelling results for refractory residues after low degrees (similar to 4-5%) of near-fractional melting of depleted mantle, possibly under garnet-facies conditions. Following this, the peridotite sequence experienced subsolidus re-equilibration at lithospheric spinel-facies conditions and intrusion of several generations of dykes. However, Iherzolites far from dykes show very modest metasomatic changes, as evidenced by the crystallisation of accessory titanian pargasite and the occurrence of very slight enrichments in highly incompatible trace elements (e.g. Nb). The Re-Os data for Iherzolites far from the dykes yield a 376 Ma (Upper Devonian) model age that is considered to record a partial melting event related to the Variscan orogenic cycle s.l. Dioritic dykes cutting the mantle sequence have whole rock, clinopyroxene and plagioclase characterised by high radiogenic Nd and low radiogenic Sr, which point to a depleted to slightly enriched mantle source. Whole rock and mafic phases of diorites have high Mg# values that positively correlate with the incompatible trace element concentrations. The peridotite at the dyke contact is enriched in orthopyroxene, iron and incompatible trace elements with respect to the Iherzolites far from dykes. Numerical simulations indicate that the geochemical characteristics of the diorites can be explained by flow of a hydrous, silica-saturated melt accompanied by reaction with the ambient peridotite and fractional crystallisation. The composition of the more primitive melts calculated in equilibrium with the diorite minerals show tholeiitic to transitional affinity. Internal Sm-Nd, three-point isochrons obtained for two dykes suggest an Upper Triassic-Lower Jurassic emplacement age (from 204 31 to 198 29 Ma). Mesozoic igneous events are unknown in the southern Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ), but the intrusion of hydrous melts, mostly silica-saturated, have been well documented in the Finero region, i.e. the northernmost part of IVZ and Triassic magmatism with calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinity is abundant throughout the Central-Eastern Alps. The geochemical and chronological features of the Baldissero diorites shed new light on the geodynamic evolution of the Southern Alps before the opening of the Jurassic Tethys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular characterization of human polyomavirus JC in Brazilian AIDS patients with and without progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy

Background: JC virus (JCV), the causative agent of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), is classified in 8 different genotypes. Previous reports have suggested a positive association between specific genotypes and PML. Objective: To compare genotypes and adaptive mutations of JCV strains from Brazilian AIDS patients with and without PML. Study design: The VP1 region of JCV was amplified by polymerase chain reaction from cerebrospinal fluid samples from 51 patients with PML and from urine samples of 47 patients with AIDS without central nervous system disease. Genotyping was done by phylogenetic analysis. Amino acid replacement and selection pressures were also investigated. Results: JCV genotype frequency distributions showed that genotypes 2 (32.7%), 1 (26.5%) and 3 (23.5%) were the most prevalent. Genotype 1 had a positive association (p < 0.0001) and genotype 3 showed an inverse association (p < 0.001) with PML. A previously undescribed point mutation at residue 91 (L/I or L/V) and (L/P), non-genotype-associated, was found in 5/49 (10.2%) and 2/47 (4.3%) JCV sequences from PML and non-PML patients, respectively. This mutation was under positive selection only in PML patients. A previously described substitution of T-A in position 128 showed a significant difference between PML and non-PML cases (70% versus 16%, respectively, p < 0.0005). Conclusion: In Brazilian patients with AIDS, JCV genotype 1 showed a strong association with PML (p < 0.0001) and JCV genotype 3 showed an inverse association with PML. The possible association of aminoacids substitution in residues 91 and 128 with PML in patients with AIDS must be further investigated. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ENO adaptive method for solving one-dimensional conservation laws

In this work an efficient third order non-linear finite difference scheme for solving adaptively hyperbolic systems of one-dimensional conservation laws is developed. The method is based oil applying to the solution of the differential equation an interpolating wavelet transform at each time step, generating a multilevel representation for the solution, which is thresholded and a sparse point representation is generated. The numerical fluxes obtained by a Lax-Friedrichs flux splitting are evaluated oil the sparse grid by an essentially non-oscillatory (ENO) approximation, which chooses the locally smoothest stencil among all the possibilities for each point of the sparse grid. The time evolution of the differential operator is done on this sparse representation by a total variation diminishing (TVD) Runge-Kutta method. Four classical examples of initial value problems for the Euler equations of gas dynamics are accurately solved and their sparse solutions are analyzed with respect to the threshold parameters, confirming the efficiency of the wavelet transform as an adaptive grid generation technique. (C) 2008 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Robust, Fully Adaptive Hybrid Level-Set/Front-Tracking Method for Two-Phase Flows with an Accurate Surface Tension Computation

We present a variable time step, fully adaptive in space, hybrid method for the accurate simulation of incompressible two-phase flows in the presence of surface tension in two dimensions. The method is based on the hybrid level set/front-tracking approach proposed in [H. D. Ceniceros and A. M. Roma, J. Comput. Phys., 205, 391400, 2005]. Geometric, interfacial quantities are computed from front-tracking via the immersed-boundary setting while the signed distance (level set) function, which is evaluated fast and to machine precision, is used as a fluid indicator. The surface tension force is obtained by employing the mixed Eulerian/Lagrangian representation introduced in [S. Shin, S. I. Abdel-Khalik, V. Daru and D. Juric, J. Comput. Phys., 203, 493-516, 2005] whose success for greatly reducing parasitic currents has been demonstrated. The use of our accurate fluid indicator together with effective Lagrangian marker control enhance this parasitic current reduction by several orders of magnitude. To resolve accurately and efficiently sharp gradients and salient flow features we employ dynamic, adaptive mesh refinements. This spatial adaption is used in concert with a dynamic control of the distribution of the Lagrangian nodes along the fluid interface and a variable time step, linearly implicit time integration scheme. We present numerical examples designed to test the capabilities and performance of the proposed approach as well as three applications: the long-time evolution of a fluid interface undergoing Rayleigh-Taylor instability, an example of bubble ascending dynamics, and a drop impacting on a free interface whose dynamics we compare with both existing numerical and experimental data.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Equal Couples in Equal Houses : Cultural perspectives on Swedish solar and bio-pellet heating design

Knowing how to design a heating system that will work mechanically is quite different from knowling how to design a system that users perceive as responsive to their domestic practices and values. In this chapter, social anthropologist Henning argues that the challenge for designers involved in the development or marketing of green buildings with heating systems that are based on renewable sources of energy is to see things from the perspective of those who are supposed to live in these buildings. The chapter focuses on three culture-specific aspects of Swedish households and single-family houses: perceptions of house and home, of private and public space, and of male and female space. Through these three angles, some clues are given as to how design, performance and location of solar and bio-pellet heating systems could be made to resonate with predominant experiences, habits and ways of thinking among both men and women.