Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

RV contractility and exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension in chronic mountain sickness: a stress echocardiographic and tissue Doppler imaging study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular function and pulmonary circulation in chronic mountain sickness (CMS) patients with rest and stress echocardiography compared with healthy high-altitude (HA) dwellers. BACKGROUND: CMS or Monge's disease is defined by excessive erythrocytosis (hemoglobin >21 g/dl in males, 19 g/dl in females) and severe hypoxemia. In some cases, a moderate or severe increase in pulmonary pressure is present, suggesting a similar pathogenesis of pulmonary hypertension. METHODS: In La Paz (Bolivia, 3,600 m sea level), 46 CMS patients and 40 HA dwellers of similar age were evaluated at rest and during semisupine bicycle exercise. Pulmonary artery pressure (PAP), pulmonary vascular resistance, and cardiac function were estimated by Doppler echocardiography. RESULTS: Compared with HA dwellers, CMS patients showed RV dilation at rest (RV mid diameter: 36 ± 5 mm vs. 32 ± 4 mm, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.001) and reduced RV fractional area change both at rest (35 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 9%, p = 0.002) and during exercise (36 ± 9% vs. 43 ± 8%, CMS vs. HA, p = 0.005). The RV systolic longitudinal function (RV-S') decreased in CMS patients, whereas it increased in the control patients (p < 0.0001) at peak stress. The RV end-systolic pressure-area relationship, a load independent surrogate of RV contractility, was similar in CMS patients and HA dwellers with a significant increase in systolic PAP and pulmonary vascular resistance in CMS patients (systolic PAP: 50 ± 12 mm Hg vs. 38 ± 8 mm Hg, CMS vs. HA, p < 0.0001; pulmonary vascular resistance: 2.9 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l vs. 2.2 ± 1 mm Hg/min/l, p = 0.03). Both groups showed comparable systolic and diastolic left ventricular function both at rest and during stress. CONCLUSIONS: Comparable RV contractile reserve in CMS and HA suggests that the lower resting values of RV function in CMS may represent a physiological adaptation to chronic hypoxic conditions rather than impaired RV function. (Chronic Mountain Sickness, Systemic Vascular Function [CMS]; NCT01182792).

A subsampling approach to estimating the distribution of diversing statistics with application to assessing financial market risks

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution ofstatistics diverging at either known rates when the underlying timeseries in strictly stationary abd strong mixing. Based on our results weprovide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statisticswith dependent data and present two applications to assessing financialmarket risk. Our method performs well in estimating Value at Risk andprovides a superior alternative to Hill's estimator in operationalizingSafety First portofolio selection.

Exercise and nonspecific low back pain: a literature review.

We reviewed the literature to clarify the effects of exercise in preventing and treating nonspecific low back pain. We evaluated several characteristics of exercise programs including specificity, individual tailoring, supervision, motivation enhancement, volume, and intensity. The results show that exercise is effective in the primary and secondary prevention of low back pain. When used for curative treatment, exercise diminishes disability and pain severity while improving fitness and occupational status in patients who have subacute, recurrent, or chronic low back pain. Patients with acute low back pain are usually advised to continue their everyday activities to the greatest extent possible rather than to start an exercise program. Supervision is crucial to the efficacy of exercise programs. Whether general or specific exercises are preferable is unclear, and neither is there clear evidence that one-on-one sessions are superior to group sessions. Further studies are needed to determine which patient subsets respond to specific characteristics of exercise programs and which exercise volumes and intensities are optimal.

Tolerance of whitefish embryos to Pseudomonas fluorescens linked to genetic and maternal effects, and reduced by previous exposure.

Juvenile or adult fish can alter their behaviour and rely on an innate and adaptive immune system to avoid/counteract pathogens, while fish embryos have to depend on egg characteristics and may be partly protected by their developing immune system that is building up from a certain age on. We developed an infection protocol that allows testing the reaction of individual whitefish embryos (Coregonus palaea) to repeated exposures to Pseudomonas fluorescens, an opportunistic bacterial fish pathogen. We used a full-factorial in vitro breeding design to separately test the effects of paternal and maternal contributions to the embryos' susceptibility to different kinds of pathogen exposure. We found that a first non-lethal exposure had immunosuppressive effects: pre-exposed embryos were more susceptible to future challenges with the same pathogen. At intermediate and high levels of pathogen intensity, maternal effects turned out to be crucial for the embryos' tolerance to infection. Paternal (i.e. genetic) effects played a significant role at the strongest level of infection, i.e. the embryos' own genetics already explained some of the variation in embryo susceptibility. Our findings suggest that whitefish embryos are largely protected by maternally transmitted substances, but build up some own innate immunocompetence several days before hatching.

Leptin and smoking cessation: secondary analyses of a randomized controlled trial assessing physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: Smokers have a lower body weight compared to non-smokers. Smoking cessation is associated with weight gain in most cases. A hormonal mechanism of action might be implicated in weight variations related to smoking, and leptin might be implicated. We made secondary analyses of an RCT, with a hypothesis-free exploratory approach to study the dynamic of leptin following smoking cessation. METHODS: We measured serum leptin levels among 271 sedentary smokers willing to quit who participated in a randomized controlled trial assessing a 9-week moderate-intensity physical activity intervention as an aid for smoking cessation. We adjusted leptin for body fat levels. We performed linear regressions to test for an association between leptin levels and the study group over time. RESULTS: One year after smoking cessation, the mean serum leptin change was +3.23 mg/l (SD 4.89) in the control group and +1.25 mg/l (SD 4.86) in the intervention group (p of the difference < 0.05). When adjusted for body fat levels, leptin was higher in the control group than in the intervention group (p of the difference < 0.01). The mean weight gain was +2.91 (SD 6.66) Kg in the intervention and +3.33 (SD 4.47) Kg in the control groups, respectively (p not significant). CONCLUSIONS: Serum leptin levels significantly increased after smoking cessation, in spite of substantial weight gain. The leptin dynamic might be different in chronic tobacco users who quit smoking, and physical activity might impact the dynamic of leptin in such a situation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391.

Long-term swimming exercise does not modulate the Akt-dependent endothelial nitric oxide synthase phosphorylation in healthy mice.

Molecular mechanisms by which exercise exerts cardiovascular benefits are poorly understood. Exercise-induced increase of endothelial NO synthase (eNOS) phosphorylation through the protein kinase Akt has been shown to be a key mechanism underlying the beneficial effect of exercise in coronary artery disease patients. We examined whether this protective pathway might also be activated in long-term-exercised healthy mice. C57BL/6 wild-type mice swam for 24 weeks. A group of sedentary animals were used as controls. Aortic levels of total protein kinase Akt (protein kinase B), phosphorylated Akt at ser473 (p-Akt), total eNOS, phosphorylated eNOS at Ser1177 (p-eNOS), and PECAM-1 (platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1) were assessed by Western blotting. Protein expressions of Akt, p-Akt, eNOS, p-eNOS, and PECAM-1 were not modulated by 24 weeks of exercise. The Akt-dependent eNOS phosphorylation did not seem to be a primary molecular adaptation in response to long-term exercise in healthy mice.

Diversity and regional inequalities: Assessing the outcomes of the Spanish 'System of Health Care Services'

The consolidation of a universal health system coupled with a process of regionaldevolution characterise the institutional reforms of the National Health System(NHS) in Spain in the last two decades. However, scarce empirical evidence hasbeen reported on the effects of both changes in health inputs, outputs andoutcomes, both at the country and at the regional level. This paper examinesthe empirical evidence on regional diversity, efficiency and inequality ofthese changes in the Spanish NHS using cross-correlation, panel data andexpenditure decomposition analysis. Results suggest that besides significantheterogeneity, once we take into account region-specific needs there is evidenceof efficiency improvements whilst inequalities in inputs and outcomes, althoughmore visible , do not appear to have increased in the last decade. Therefore,the devolution process in the Spanish Health System offers an interesting casefor the experimentation of health reforms related to regional diversity butcompatible with the nature of a public NHS, with no sizeable regionalinequalitiest.

Assessing the wish to die in elderly people.

Background: The wish to die has mainly been studied in terminally- ill young adults. In elderly persons, factors associated with the wish to die are likely to differ from those observed in younger people. Since the most frequently used scale -"The Schedule ofAttitudes Toward Hastened Death" (SAHD, Rosenfeld et al., 2000)- was previously used in terminally ill cancer or AIDS patients, its use in elderly people suffering from multiple comorbidities is problematic. The objectives of this study were 1) to adapt the SAHD for use in elderly people, 2) to develop a new instrument to assess patients' attitudes towards death 3) to test the relevance/acceptability of these instruments. Methods:An adapted version of the SAHD to the elderly population (SAHD-OLD) was obtained by analyzing all items of the instrument instrument in an interdisciplinary group of experts in geriatric care. Items were modified according to their relevance in elderly population. An instrument to assess patients' attitudes towards death was built on previous qualitative work performed by Schroepfer. These 2 instruments were subjected to cognitive testing in a convenience sample of 11 community-dwelling people (median age = 82 years; range 76-91). Results: The SAHD-OLD was obtained by modifying those items addressing palliative care issues (eg. irreversible consequences of stopping treatment) and systematically replacing "illness/disease" by "health problems". We expressed in statements the 6 categories identified by Schroepfer, and created instructions asking respondents to describe their current attitude towards death (Adapted Schroepfer). During cognitive testing, our sample assessed the SAHD-OLD and the Adapted Schroepfer as relevant for elderly people. Respondents judged these 2 instruments acceptable and appreciated the direct manner in which they addressed end of life issues. The opportunity to speak openly on this topic was welcomed. Conclusions: The SAHD-OLD and the Adapted Schroepfer seem promising instruments to assess the wish to die in elderly people suffering from multiple comorbidities. Preliminary results show good comprehension, high relevance and acceptability. Psychometric properties of the SAHD-OLD are currently being tested in a large sample of patients.

Financial liberalization, bank crises and growth: Assessing the links

This paper studies the effects of financial liberalization and banking crises on growth. It shows that financial liberalization spurs on average economic growth. Banking crises are harmful for growth, but to a lesser extent in countries with open financial systems and good institutions. The positive effect of financial liberalization is robust to different definitions. While the removal of capital account restrictions is effective by increasing financial depth, equity market liberalization affects growth directly. The empirical analysis is performed through GMM dynamic panel data estimations on a panel of 90 countries observed in the period 1975-1999.

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

Physical activity assessment using a pedometer and its comparison with a questionnaire in a large population survey.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the pedometer in epidemiologic research on physical activity. Within the framework of a health examination survey in 1988-1989, physical activity was assessed in a representative population sample of 493 men and women aged 25-74 years who were residents of Switzerland. They wore a pedometer for 1 week at work and during leisure time, and the results, converted into steps per day, were compared with answers to a questionnaire. The average number of steps per day decreased from 11,900 to 6,700 and from 9,300 to 7,300 for men and women, respectively, in the youngest to the oldest age groups. For men, categorized according to type of physical activity at work, there was a highly significant difference in the number of steps (p < 0.001), whereas in women the results were associated with leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.003). For both sexes, practicing sports more than once a week was associated with an important increase in steps per day. Analyzing the number of steps according to the day of the week and occupational category produced an unexpected result: Men with a physically active job engaged in more leisure-time physical activity on the weekend. The pedometer proved to be useful in assessing physical activity in a large, free-living population.

Avaliação do Estatuto de Conservação da Flora Endémica de Cabo Verde

As ilhas da Macaronésia (Açores, Madeira, Selvagens, Canárias e Cabo Verde) estão englobadas no Hotspot de Biodiversidade da Bacia do Mediterrâneo, devido ao elevado grau de endemismos que apresentam. Das ca. 900 espécies de plantas endémicas que ocorrem na Macaronésia, a maioria exibe uma distribuição geográfica muito limitada, o que pode implicar um elevado risco de extinção. No caso de Cabo Verde, são conhecidos atualmente 94 taxa de plantas endémicas, que necessitam de conservação e proteção urgente. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é atualizar a Primeira Lista Vermelha de Cabo Verde, publicada por Leyens e Lobin (1996), através da avaliação do estatuto de conservação da flora endémica. Este estudo segue os critérios e categorias da IUCN e utiliza o software RAMAS Red List. Os resultados indicam que a maioria das plantas endémicas de Cabo Verde tem uma distribuição geográfica muito limitada, sendo que metade dos taxa têm áreas de ocupação e extensões de ocorrência inferiores a 20km2 e 200km2, respetivamente. Além disso, são comparadas duas atitudes em relação ao parâmetro tolerância ao risco, nomeadamente, RT = 0,5 para uma atitude neutra e RT = 0,6 para uma atitude evidenciaria. Com RT = 0,5, cerca de 77% dos taxa foram classificados como Criticamente em Perigo e 10% como em Perigo. Por outro lado, com RT =0, 6 obteve-se uma melhor discriminação nas diferentes categorias de ameaça: 29% dos taxa foi classificado como Criticamente em Perigo, 40% como em Perigo e 8% como Vulnerável. Neste estudo propõem-se que o ajuste de uma atitude em relação ao parâmetro tolerância ao risco (RT) pode ser um método importante a considerar na aplicação dos critérios IUCN em pequenas regiões, como é o caso das lhas de Cabo Verde, sem alterar as regras de avaliação da IUCN.

Disentangling human tolerance and resistance against HIV.

In ecology, "disease tolerance" is defined as an evolutionary strategy of hosts against pathogens, characterized by reduced or absent pathogenesis despite high pathogen load. To our knowledge, tolerance has to date not been quantified and disentangled from host resistance to disease in any clinically relevant human infection. Using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, we investigated if there is variation in tolerance to HIV in humans and if this variation is associated with polymorphisms in the human genome. In particular, we tested for associations between tolerance and alleles of the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genes, the CC chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), the age at which individuals were infected, and their sex. We found that HLA-B alleles associated with better HIV control do not confer tolerance. The slower disease progression associated with these alleles can be fully attributed to the extent of viral load reduction in carriers. However, we observed that tolerance significantly varies across HLA-B genotypes with a relative standard deviation of 34%. Furthermore, we found that HLA-B homozygotes are less tolerant than heterozygotes. Lastly, tolerance was observed to decrease with age, resulting in a 1.7-fold difference in disease progression between 20 and 60-y-old individuals with the same viral load. Thus, disease tolerance is a feature of infection with HIV, and the identification of the mechanisms involved may pave the way to a better understanding of pathogenesis.