Forest sector simulation models as methodological tools in forest policy analysis.

XVIII IUFRO World Congress, Ljubljana 1986.

Non-exponentiality in electron transfer kinetics: Static versus dynamic disorder models

Non-exponential electron transfer kinetics in complex systems are often analyzed in terms of a quenched, static disorder model. In this work we present an alternative analysis in terms of a simple dynamic disorder model where the solvent is characterized by highly non-exponential dynamics. We consider both low and high barrier reactions. For the former, the main result is a simple analytical expression for the survival probability of the reactant. In this case, electron transfer, in the long time, is controlled by the solvent polarization relaxation-in agreement with the analyses of Rips and Jortner and of Nadler and Marcus. The short time dynamics is also non-exponential, but for different reasons. The high barrier reactions, on the other hand, show an interesting dynamic dependence on the electronic coupling element, V-el.

Carnatic music analysis: Shadja, swara identification and rAga verification in AlApana using stochastic models

We analyze the AlApana of a Carnatic music piece without the prior knowledge of the singer or the rAga. AlApana is ameans to communicate to the audience, the flavor or the bhAva of the rAga through the permitted notes and its phrases. The input to our analysis is a recording of the vocal AlApana along with the accompanying instrument. The AdhAra shadja(base note) of the singer for that AlApana is estimated through a stochastic model of note frequencies. Based on the shadja, we identify the notes (swaras) used in the AlApana using a semi-continuous GMM. Using the probabilities of each note interval, we recognize swaras of the AlApana. For sampurNa rAgas, we can identify the possible rAga, based on the swaras. We have been able to achieve correct shadja identification, which is crucial to all further steps, in 88.8% of 55 AlApanas. Among them (48 AlApanas of 7 rAgas), we get 91.5% correct swara identification and 62.13% correct R (rAga) accuracy.

A meta-analysis of the traits affecting dispersal ability in butterflies: can wingspan be used as a proxy?

1. Dispersal ability of a species is a key ecological characteristic, affecting a range of processes from adaptation, community dynamics and genetic structure, to distribution and range size. It is determined by both intrinsic species traits and extrinsic landscape-related properties. 2. Using butterflies as a model system, the following questions were addressed: (i) given similar extrinsic factors, which intrinsic species trait(s) explain dispersal ability? (ii) can one of these traits be used as a proxy for dispersal ability? (iii) the effect of interactions between the traits, and phylogenetic relatedness, on dispersal ability. 3. Four data sets, using different measures of dispersal, were compiled from published literature. The first data set uses mean dispersal distances from capture-mark-recapture studies, and the other three use mobility indices. Data for six traits that can potentially affect dispersal ability were collected: wingspan, larval host plant specificity, adult habitat specificity, mate location strategy, voltinism and flight period duration. Each data set was subjected to both unifactorial, and multifactorial, phylogenetically controlled analyses. 4. Among the factors considered, wingspan was the most important determinant of dispersal ability, although the predictive powers of regression models were low. Voltinism and flight period duration also affect dispersal ability, especially in case of temperate species. Interactions between the factors did not affect dispersal ability, and phylogenetic relatedness was significant in one data set. 5. While using wingspan as the only proxy for dispersal ability maybe problematic, it is usually the only easily accessible species-specific trait for a large number of species. It can thus be a satisfactory proxy when carefully interpreted, especially for analyses involving many species from all across the world.

Time and Frequency Domain Finite Element Models for Axial Wave Analysis in Hyperelastic Rods

The propagation of axial waves in hyperelastic rods is studied using both time and frequency domain finite element models. The nonlinearity is introduced using the Murnaghan strain energy function and the equations governing the dynamics of the rod are derived assuming linear kinematics. In the time domain, the standard Galerkin finite element method, spectral element method, and Taylor-Galerkin finite element method are considered. A frequency domain formulation based on the Fourier spectral method is also developed. It is found that the time domain spectral element method provides the most efficient numerical tool for the problem considered.

Analysis of Conformational Variation in Macromolecular Structural Models

Experimental conditions or the presence of interacting components can lead to variations in the structural models of macromolecules. However, the role of these factors in conformational selection is often omitted by in silico methods to extract dynamic information from protein structural models. Structures of small peptides, considered building blocks for larger macromolecular structural models, can substantially differ in the context of a larger protein. This limitation is more evident in the case of modeling large multi-subunit macromolecular complexes using structures of the individual protein components. Here we report an analysis of variations in structural models of proteins with high sequence similarity. These models were analyzed for sequence features of the protein, the role of scaffolding segments including interacting proteins or affinity tags and the chemical components in the experimental conditions. Conformational features in these structural models could be rationalized by conformational selection events, perhaps induced by experimental conditions. This analysis was performed on a non-redundant dataset of protein structures from different SCOP classes. The sequence-conformation correlations that we note here suggest additional features that could be incorporated by in silico methods to extract dynamic information from protein structural models.

GYROSONICS: SIGNATURE ANALYSIS AND REDUCED-ORDER MODELS

In this paper, the authors study the structure of a novel binaural sound with a certain phase and amplitude modulation and the response to this excitation when it is applied to natural rewarding circuit of human brain through auditory neural pathways. This novel excitation, also referred to as gyrosonic excitation in this work, has been found to have interesting effects such as stabilization effects on the left and right hemispheric brain signaling as captured by Galvanic Skin Resistance (GSR) measurements, control of cardiac rhythms (observed from ECG signals), mitigation of psychosomatic syndrome, and mitigation of migraine pain. Experimental data collected from human subjects are presented, and these data are examined to categorize the extent of systems disorder and reinforcement reward due to the gyrosonic stimulus. A multi-path reduced-order model has been developed to analyze the GSR signals. The filtered results are indicative of complicated reinforcing reward patterns due to the gyrosonic stimulation when it is used as a control input for patients with psychosomatic and cardiac disorders.

Experimental analysis of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation and comparison with theoretical models

The demand for energy efficient, low weight structures has boosted the use of composite structures assembled using increased quantities of structural adhesives. Bonded structures may be subjected to severe working environments such as high temperature and moisture due to which the adhesive gets degraded over a period of time. This reduces the strength of a joint and leads to premature failure. Measurement of strains in the adhesive bondline at any point of time during service may be beneficial as an assessment can be made on the integrity of a joint and necessary preventive actions may be taken before failure. This paper presents an experimental approach of measuring peel and shear strains in the adhesive bondline of composite single-lap joints using digital image correlation. Different sets of composite adhesive joints with varied bond quality were prepared and subjected to tensile load during which digital images were taken and processed using digital image correlation software. The measured peel strain at the joint edge showed a rapid increase with the initiation of a crack till failure of the joint. The measured strains were used to compute the corresponding stresses assuming a plane strain condition and the results were compared with stresses predicted using theoretical models, namely linear and nonlinear adhesive beam models. A similar trend in stress distribution was observed. Further comparison of peel and shear strains also exhibited similar trend for both healthy and degraded joints. Maximum peel stress failure criterion was used to predict the failure load of a composite adhesive joint and a comparison was made between predicted and actual failure loads. The predicted failure loads from theoretical models were found to be higher than the actual failure load for all the joints.

Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A Mycobacterial Phosphoribosyltransferase Promotes Bacillary Survival by Inhibiting Oxidative Stress and Autophagy Pathways in Macrophages and Zebrafish

Mycobacterium tuberculosis employs various strategies to modulate host immune responses to facilitate its persistence in macrophages. The M. tuberculosis cell wall contains numerous glycoproteins with unknown roles in pathogenesis. Here, by using Concanavalin A and LC-MS analysis, we identified a novel mannosylated glycoprotein phosphoribosyltransferase, encoded by Rv3242c from M. tuberculosis cell walls. Homology modeling, bioinformatic analyses, and an assay of phosphoribosyltransferase activity in Mycobacterium smegmatis expressing recombinant Rv3242c (MsmRv3242c) confirmed the mass spectrometry data. Using Mycobacterium marinum-zebrafish and the surrogate MsmRv3242c infection models, we proved that phosphoribosyltransferase is involved in mycobacterial virulence. Histological and infection assays showed that the M. marinum mimG mutant, an Rv3242c orthologue in a pathogenic M. marinum strain, was strongly attenuated in adult zebrafish and also survived less in macrophages. In contrast, infection with wild type and the complemented Delta mimG: Rv3242c M. marinum strains showed prominent pathological features, such as severe emaciation, skin lesions, hemorrhaging, and more zebrafish death. Similarly, recombinant Msm Rv3242c bacteria showed increased invasion in non-phagocytic epithelial cells and longer intracellular survival in macrophages as compared with wild type and vector control M. smegmatis strains. Further mechanistic studies revealed that the Rv3242c- and mimG-mediated enhancement of intramacrophagic survival was due to inhibition of autophagy, reactive oxygen species, and reduced activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase enzymes. Infection with MsmRv3242c also activated the MAPK pathway, NF-kappa B, and inflammatory cytokines. In summary, we show that a novel mycobacterial mannosylated phosphoribosyltransferase acts as a virulence and immunomodulatory factor, suggesting that it may constitute a novel target for antimycobacterial drugs.

Constraints based analysis of extended cybernetic models

The cybernetic modeling framework provides an interesting approach to model the regulatory phenomena occurring in microorganisms. In the present work, we adopt a constraints based approach to analyze the nonlinear behavior of the extended equations of the cybernetic model. We first show that the cybernetic model exhibits linear growth behavior under the constraint of no resource allocation for the induction of the key enzyme. We then quantify the maximum achievable specific growth rate of microorganisms on mixtures of substitutable substrates under various kinds of regulation and show its use in gaining an understanding of the regulatory strategies of microorganisms. Finally, we show that Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits suboptimal dynamic growth with a long diauxic lag phase when growing on a mixture of glucose and galactose and discuss on its potential to achieve optimal growth with a significantly reduced diauxic lag period. The analysis carried out in the present study illustrates the utility of adopting a constraints based approach to understand the dynamic growth strategies of microorganisms. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.