Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.

Efficacité du counseling d'orientation: impacts de l'alliance de travail et du contexte psychosocial

La problématique centrale de cette thèse de doctorat est l'efficacité de l'accompagnement à l'orientation. Elle renvoie en particulier à la multiplicité des types d'interventions ainsi qu'aux tensions entre les finalités de l'orientation qui rendent improbable une mesure univoque et objective de l'efficacité des pratiques. Le «mythe » de l'efficacité trouve notamment sa source dans le persistent monopole du modèle de l'appariement qui a largement influencé le développement de la discipline. Le manuscrit est basé sur deux études empiriques. Premièrement, « voies professionnelles » est une étude longitudinale visant l'évaluation de l'efficacité d'un service de counseling d'orientation au travers de mesures intraindividuelles. Les résultats immédiats (pre-post) indiquent une forte diminution de l'indécision vocationnelle des consultants ainsi qu'une augmentation de leur bien-être. Les résultats longitudinaux sur un an indiquent une évolution positive des difficultés plus ancrées ainsi qu'un fort taux d'implémentation des projets professionnels. La qualité de l'alliance de travail démontre un impact positif sur l'efficacité de la démarche. Deuxièmement, l'étude « orientation et genre » a permis de mettre en évidence un effet d'interaction entre le sexe et le niveau scolaire d'élèves en fin de scolarité sur leurs profils d'intérêts professionnels. Ce résultat affecte en particulier les jeunes filles dans une filière à exigences élémentaires car ces deux identités psychosociales semblent restreindre doublement les options professionnelles envisageables. Les deux études ont permis de soulever cinq implications centrales : (1) La distinction entre les aspects cognitifs et émotionnels de l'indécision vocationnelle est importante. En particulier, la préparation au choix est un construit qui nécessite clarification ; (2) Les processus de transitions professionnelles ainsi que leur accompagnement doivent être considérés dans leur dimension temporelle ; (3) L'interconnexion des différentes sphères de vie est centrale dans les processus d'orientation et leur accompagnement ; (4) L'efficacité du conseil en orientation est affectée par la qualité des aspects relationnels ; (5) La complexité des pratiques et de leurs finalités confronte l'orientation à son rôle envers des identités psychosociales fragilisées. - The central issue of this doctoral thesis is the effectiveness of career counseling and guidance. In particular, this refers to the many types of career interventions as well as the tensions between their objectives. Those aspects make it unlikely to get an unambiguous and objective measure of the effectiveness of career practices. The "myth of efficiency" is particularly rooted in the persistent monopoly of person-environment fit models, which greatly influenced the development of the discipline. This manuscript is based on two empirical studies. First, "career paths" is a longitudinal study looking at the effectiveness of a career counseling service through intraindividual measures. Pre-post impacts showed a significant decrease in clients' vocational indecision as well as a moderate increase in their well-being. The one year-longitudinal results highlighted significant decreases in more constant decision-making difficulties with a high proportion of clients having implemented their professional projects. The quality of the working alliance had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the intervention. The second study, "vocational development and gender" highlighted an interaction effect between late schoolchildren's gender and school level on their professional interests profile. This result particularly affected girls at a low school level, because these psychosocial identities were a double restraint in restricting career options. The two studies raised five central implications: (1) The distinction between cognitive and emotional aspects of vocational indecision is important. In particular, readiness to make a choice is a construct that requires clarification; (2) career transitions processes as well as supporting these transitions, should be considered in their temporal dimension (3) the interconnection of different spheres of life is central to vocational development and career guidance and counseling; (4) the effectiveness of career counseling is affected by the quality of the relational aspects in the intervention; (5) and the complexity of career interventions and their objectives forces practitioners to consider their role and responsibilities towards clients with marginalized psychosocial identities.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Eina gràfica per la creació d'autòmats per a la representació del llenguatge natural

Aquest projecte tracta la implementació d’una eina gràfica multiplataforma de creació i edició de gramàtiques electròniques per representar el Llenguatge Natural. És una eina per lingüistes i projectes com Spanish FrameNet Project amb la quan poden representar fàcilment transductors en un format més visual, les transicions es representen en forma de “caixes”, i guardar els resultats. S’han implementat varies opcions per crear una eina còmode i personalitzable per l’usuari amb funcionalitats enfocades a les seves necessitats com importar/exportar autòmats des d’una Expressió Regular. Es tracta l’implementació de tots els components que s’han necessitat per crear la GUI així com la seva funcionalitat.

Is the absence of spiritual well-being at the facit-sp equivalent to spiritual distress in older patients?

Objective: Although initially developed to assess spiritual well-being,the FACIT-Sp is increasingly used to assess the other end of the spectrum,i.e. spiritual distress. This study intends to investigate whether theFACIT-Sp could really contribute to this aim in older patients. Method:Patients (N=135, 81.47.1 years, 68.3% women) aged 65 years and over,with MMSE score>19, admitted consecutively in post-acute rehabilitationwere enrolled. The FACIT-Sp (12 items, score 0 to 48, high spiritualwell-being defined as score_36) was administered and commentswere systematically retrieved. Results: Overall, 32(23.7%) patients hadhigh spiritual well-being. FACIT-Sp internal consistency was good(Cronbach's 0.85) and a confirmatory factorial analysis was consistentwith Meaning and Faith proposed subscales. Qualitative analysisshowed that negative answers (score=0) to "My illness has strengthenedmy faith or spiritual beliefs" (N=76/135) could equally reflect theabsence of impact (49/76, 64.5%) or a negative impact (religious struggle,27/76, 35.5%) of illness on faith. However, former patients had significantlyhigher FACIT-Sp scores than the latter (30.35.6 vs 20.97.9,P<.001). Similarly, among patients (N=73/135) with negative answers(score<3) to "I feel a sense of purpose in my life" those mentioning their"old age" to explain their answer (N=34/73, 46.6%) had higher FACITSpscores than those who did not (26.47.7 vs 22.58.1,P=.02). Conclusion:The FACIT-Sp identifies older people with high spiritual wellbeingbut could underestimate well-being in some older patients. Lowscores on some items could have very different meanings and interpretationof FACIT-Sp global scores below the usual cut-off should becautious.

Consumer populations and nutritional transition in Spain in the 20th century: a methodology for their reconstruction

One feature of the modern nutrition transition is the growing consumption of animal proteins. The most common approach in the quantitative analysis of this change used to be the study of averages of food consumption. But this kind of analysis seems to be incomplete without the knowledge of the number of consumers. Data about consumers are not usually published in historical statistics. This article introduces a methodological approach for reconstructing consumer populations. This methodology is based on some assumptions about the diffusion process of foodstuffs and the modeling of consumption patterns with a log-normal distribution. This estimating process is illustrated with the specific case of milk consumption in Spain between 1925 and 1981. These results fit quite well with other data and indirect sources available showing that this dietary change was a slow and late process. The reconstruction of consumer population could shed a new light in the study of nutritional transitions.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

Stochastic time-concentration activity models for cytotoxicity in 3D brain cell cultures.

BACKGROUND: In vitro aggregating brain cell cultures containing all types of brain cells have been shown to be useful for neurotoxicological investigations. The cultures are used for the detection of nervous system-specific effects of compounds by measuring multiple endpoints, including changes in enzyme activities. Concentration-dependent neurotoxicity is determined at several time points. METHODS: A Markov model was set up to describe the dynamics of brain cell populations exposed to potentially neurotoxic compounds. Brain cells were assumed to be either in a healthy or stressed state, with only stressed cells being susceptible to cell death. Cells may have switched between these states or died with concentration-dependent transition rates. Since cell numbers were not directly measurable, intracellular lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) activity was used as a surrogate. Assuming that changes in cell numbers are proportional to changes in intracellular LDH activity, stochastic enzyme activity models were derived. Maximum likelihood and least squares regression techniques were applied for estimation of the transition rates. Likelihood ratio tests were performed to test hypotheses about the transition rates. Simulation studies were used to investigate the performance of the transition rate estimators and to analyze the error rates of the likelihood ratio tests. The stochastic time-concentration activity model was applied to intracellular LDH activity measurements after 7 and 14 days of continuous exposure to propofol. The model describes transitions from healthy to stressed cells and from stressed cells to death. RESULTS: The model predicted that propofol would affect stressed cells more than healthy cells. Increasing propofol concentration from 10 to 100 μM reduced the mean waiting time for transition to the stressed state by 50%, from 14 to 7 days, whereas the mean duration to cellular death reduced more dramatically from 2.7 days to 6.5 hours. CONCLUSION: The proposed stochastic modeling approach can be used to discriminate between different biological hypotheses regarding the effect of a compound on the transition rates. The effects of different compounds on the transition rate estimates can be quantitatively compared. Data can be extrapolated at late measurement time points to investigate whether costs and time-consuming long-term experiments could possibly be eliminated.

Growth, unemployment and wage inertia

We introduce wage setting via efficiency wages in the neoclassical one-sector growth model to study the growth effects of wage inertia. We compare the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with wage inertia with the equilibrium of an economy without wage inertia. We show that wage inertia affects the long run employment rate and that the transitional dynamics of the main economic variables will be different because wages are a state variable when wage inertia is introduced. In particular, we show non-monotonic transitions in the economy with wage inertia that do not arise in the economy with flexible wages. We also study the growth effects of permanent technological and fiscal policy shocks in these two economies. During the transition, the growth effects of technological shocks obtained when wages exhibit inertia may be the opposite from the ones obtained when wages are flexible. In the long run, these technological shocks may have long run effects if there is wage inertia. We also show that the growth effects of fiscal policies will be delayed when there is wage inertia.

Sex determination: why so many ways of doing it?

Sexual reproduction is an ancient feature of life on earth, and the familiar X and Y chromosomes in humans and other model species have led to the impression that sex determination mechanisms are old and conserved. In fact, males and females are determined by diverse mechanisms that evolve rapidly in many taxa. Yet this diversity in primary sex-determining signals is coupled with conserved molecular pathways that trigger male or female development. Conflicting selection on different parts of the genome and on the two sexes may drive many of these transitions, but few systems with rapid turnover of sex determination mechanisms have been rigorously studied. Here we survey our current understanding of how and why sex determination evolves in animals and plants and identify important gaps in our knowledge that present exciting research opportunities to characterize the evolutionary forces and molecular pathways underlying the evolution of sex determination.

The degradation of HFR1, a putative bHLH class transcription factor involved in light signaling, is regulated by phosphorylation and requires COP1.

All developmental transitions throughout the life cycle of a plant are influenced by light. In Arabidopsis, multiple photoreceptors including the UV-A/blue-sensing cryptochromes (cry1-2) and the red/far-red responsive phytochromes (phyA-E) monitor the ambient light conditions. Light-regulated protein stability is a major control point of photomorphogenesis. The ubiquitin E3 ligase COP1 (constitutively photomorphogenic 1) regulates the stability of several light-signaling components. HFR1 (long hypocotyl in far-red light) is a putative transcription factor with a bHLH domain acting downstream of both phyA and the cryptochromes. HFR1 is closely related to PIF1, PIF3, and PIF4 (phytochrome interacting factor 1, 3 and 4), but in contrast to the latter three, there is no evidence for a direct interaction between HFR1 and the phytochromes. Here, we show that the protein abundance of HFR1 is tightly controlled by light. HFR1 is an unstable phosphoprotein, particularly in the dark. The proteasome and COP1 are required in vivo to degrade phosphorylated HFR1. In addition, HFR1 can interact with COP1, consistent with the idea of COP1 directly mediating HFR1 degradation. We identify a domain, conserved among several bHLH class proteins involved in light signaling , as a determinant of HFR1 stability. Our physiological experiments indicate that the control of HFR1 protein abundance is important for a normal de-etiolation response.

Does history of falling predict length of stay in post-acute geriatric rehabilitation?

Objectives:To investigate the associations between falls before hospital¦admission, falls during hospitalization, and length of stay in elderly¦people admitted to post-acute geriatric rehabilitation. Method: History¦of falling in the previous 12 months before admission was recorded¦among 249 older persons (mean age 82.3±7.4 years, 69.1% women)¦consecutively admitted to post-acute rehabilitation. Data on medical,¦functional and cognitive status were collected upon admission. Falls¦during hospitalization and length of stay were recorded at discharge.¦Results: Overall, 92 (40.4%) patients reported no fall in the 12 months¦before admission; 63(27.6%) reported 1 fall, and 73(32.0%) reported¦multiple falls. Previous falls occurrence (one or more falls) was significantly¦associated with in-stay falls (19.9% of previous fallers fell¦during the stay vs 7.6% in patients without history of falling, P=.01),¦and with a longer length of stay (22.4 ± 10.1 days vs 27.1 ± 14.3 days,¦P=.01). In multivariate robust regression controlling for gender, age,¦functional and cognitive status, history of falling remained significantly¦associated with longer rehabilitation stay (2.8 days more in single fallers,¦p=.05, and 3.3 days more in multiple fallers, p=.0.1, compared to¦non-fallers). Conclusion: History of falling in the 12 months prior to¦post acute geriatric rehabilitation is independently associated with a¦longer rehabilitation length of stay. Previous fallers have also an¦increased risk of falling during rehabilitation stay. This suggests that¦hospital fall prevention measures should particularly target these high¦riskpatients.