Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

3D seismic facies characterization and geological patterns recognition (Australian North West Shelf)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This PhD research, funded by the Swiss Sciences Foundation, is principally devoted to enhance the recognition, the visualisation and the characterization of geobodies through innovative 3D seismic approaches. A series of case studies from the Australian North West Shelf ensures the development of reproducible integrated 3D workflows and gives new insight into local and regional stratigraphic as well as structural issues. This project was initiated in year 2000 at the Geology and Palaeontology Institute of the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). Several collaborations ensured the improvement of technical approaches as well as the assessment of geological models. - Investigations into the Timor Sea structural style were carried out at the Tectonics Special Research Centre of the University of Western Australia and in collaboration with Woodside Energy in Perth. - Seismic analysis and attributes classification approach were initiated with Schlumberger Oilfield Australia in Perth; assessments and enhancements of the integrated seismic approaches benefited from collaborations with scientists from Schlumberger Stavanger Research (Norway). Adapting and refining from "linear" exploration techniques, a conceptual "helical" 3D seismic approach has been developed. In order to investigate specific geological issues this approach, integrating seismic attributes and visualisation tools, has been refined and adjusted leading to the development of two specific workflows: - A stratigraphic workflow focused on the recognition of geobodies and the characterization of depositional systems. Additionally, it can support the modelling of the subsidence and incidentally the constraint of the hydrocarbon maturity of a given area. - A structural workflow used to quickly and accurately define major and secondary fault systems. The integration of the 3D structural interpretation results ensures the analysis of the fault networks kinematics which can affect hydrocarbon trapping mechanisms. The application of these integrated workflows brings new insight into two complex settings on the Australian North West Shelf and ensures the definition of astonishing stratigraphic and structural outcomes. The stratigraphic workflow ensures the 3D characterization of the Late Palaeozoic glacial depositional system on the Mermaid Nose (Dampier Subbasin, Northern Carnarvon Basin) that presents similarities with the glacial facies along the Neotethys margin up to Oman (chapter 3.1). A subsidence model reveals the Phanerozoic geodynamic evolution of this area (chapter 3.2) and emphasizes two distinct mode of regional extension for the Palaeozoic (Neotethys opening) and Mesozoic (abyssal plains opening). The structural workflow is used for the definition of the structural evolution of the Laminaria High area (Bonaparte Basin). Following a regional structural characterization of the Timor Sea (chapter 4.1), a thorough analysis of the Mesozoic fault architecture reveals a local rotation of the stress field and the development of reverse structures (flower structures) in extensional setting, that form potential hydrocarbon traps (chapter 4.2). The definition of the complex Neogene structural architecture associated with the fault kinematic analysis and a plate flexure model (chapter 4.3) suggest that the Miocene to Pleistocene reactivation phases recorded at the Laminaria High most probably result from the oblique normal reactivation of the underlying Mesozoic fault planes. This episode is associated with the deformation of the subducting Australian plate. Based on these results three papers were published in international journals and two additional publications will be submitted. Additionally this research led to several communications in international conferences. Although the different workflows presented in this research have been primarily developed and used for the analysis of specific stratigraphic and structural geobodies on the Australian North West Shelf, similar integrated 3D seismic approaches will have applications to hydrocarbon exploration and production phases; for instance increasing the recognition of potential source rocks, secondary migration pathways, additional traps or reservoir breaching mechanisms. The new elements brought by this research further highlight that 3D seismic data contains a tremendous amount of hidden geological information waiting to be revealed and that will undoubtedly bring new insight into depositional systems, structural evolution and geohistory of the areas reputed being explored and constrained and other yet to be constrained. The further development of 3D texture attributes highlighting specific features of the seismic signal, the integration of quantitative analysis for stratigraphic and structural processes, the automation of the interpretation workflow as well as the formal definition of "seismo-morphologic" characteristics of a wide range of geobodies from various environments would represent challenging examples of continuation of this present research. The 21st century will most probably represent a transition period between fossil and other alternative energies. The next generation of seismic interpreters prospecting for hydrocarbon will undoubtedly face new challenges mostly due to the shortage of obvious and easy targets. They will probably have to keep on integrating techniques and geological processes in order to further capitalise the seismic data for new potentials definition. Imagination and creativity will most certainly be among the most important quality required from such geoscientists.

Audit report on the City of Center Point, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Audit report on the City of Center Point, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2008

Rein et tabac : revue de la littérature et mise au point [Kidney and smoking: literature review and focus].

Smoking remains a major public health problem. It is associated with a considerable number of deaths in the world's population. Smoking is just like high blood pressure, an independent predictor of progression to any primary renal disease and renal transplant patients. It seems that smoking cessation slows the progression of kidney disease in smokers. The literature data are sometimes contradictory about it because of some methodological weaknesses. However, experimental models highlight the harmful effects of tobacco by hemodynamic and non-hemodynamic factors. The conclusion is that a major effort should be further produced by the nephrology community to motivate our patients to stop smoking.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 fitness is a determining factor in viral rebound and set point in chronic infection.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) isolates from 20 chronically infected patients who participated in a structured treatment interruption (STI) trial were studied to determine whether viral fitness influences reestablishment of viremia. Viruses derived from individuals who spontaneously controlled viremia had significantly lower in vitro replication capacities than viruses derived from individuals that did not control viremia after interruption of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and replication capacities correlated with pre-ART and post-STI viral set points. Of note, no clinically relevant improvement of viral loads upon STI occurred. Virus isolates from controlling and noncontrolling patients were indistinguishable in terms of coreceptor usage, genetic subtype, and sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies. In contrast, viruses from controlling patients exhibited increased sensitivity to inhibition by chemokines. Sensitivity to inhibition by RANTES correlated strongly with slower replication kinetics of the virus isolates, suggesting a marked dependency of these virus isolates on high coreceptor densities on the target cells. In summary, our data indicate that viral fitness is a driving factor in determining the magnitude of viral rebound and viral set point in chronic HIV-1 infection, and thus fitness should be considered as a parameter influencing the outcome of therapeutic intervention in chronic infection.

Reconstrucció 3D : comparativa d'algoritmes de correspondència

En aquest projecte s'analitzen dos algoritmes de correspondència entre imatges amb l'objectiu d'accelerar el procés de reconstrucció 3D mitjançant MVS. S'analitza tot el procés de reconstrucció i a partir d'un software existent es fa la comparació de l'algoritme SIFT i l'algoritme BRISK. A partir dels tests realitzats es conclou que el BRISK és més ràpid i millor per a una reconstrucció 3D.