897 resultados para 2447: modelling and forecasting


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This paper presents a new method for calculating the individual generators’ shares in line flows, line losses and loads. The method is described and illustrated on active power flows, but it can be applied in the same way to reactive power flows. Starting from a power flow solution, the line flow matrix is formed. This matrix is used for identifying node types, tracing the power flow from generators downstream to loads, and to determine generators’ participation factors to lines and loads. Neither exhaustive search nor matrix inversion is required. Hence, the method is claimed to be the least computationally demanding amongst all of the similar methods.

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The technical challenges in the design and programming of signal processors for multimedia communication are discussed. The development of terminal equipment to meet such demand presents a significant technical challenge, considering that it is highly desirable that the equipment be cost effective, power efficient, versatile, and extensible for future upgrades. The main challenges in the design and programming of signal processors for multimedia communication are, general-purpose signal processor design, application-specific signal processor design, operating systems and programming support and application programming. The size of FFT is programmable so that it can be used for various OFDM-based communication systems, such as digital audio broadcasting (DAB), digital video broadcasting-terrestrial (DVB-T) and digital video broadcasting-handheld (DVB-H). The clustered architecture design and distributed ping-pong register files in the PAC DSP raise new challenges of code generation.

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A continuous forward algorithm (CFA) is proposed for nonlinear modelling and identification using radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. The problem considered here is simultaneous network construction and parameter optimization, well-known to be a mixed integer hard one. The proposed algorithm performs these two tasks within an integrated analytic framework, and offers two important advantages. First, the model performance can be significantly improved through continuous parameter optimization. Secondly, the neural representation can be built without generating and storing all candidate regressors, leading to significantly reduced memory usage and computational complexity. Computational complexity analysis and simulation results confirm the effectiveness.

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In this paper, we present a random iterative graph based hyper-heuristic to produce a collection of heuristic sequences to construct solutions of different quality. These heuristic sequences can be seen as dynamic hybridisations of different graph colouring heuristics that construct solutions step by step. Based on these sequences, we statistically analyse the way in which graph colouring heuristics are automatically hybridised. This, to our knowledge, represents a new direction in hyper-heuristic research. It is observed that spending the search effort on hybridising Largest Weighted Degree with Saturation Degree at the early stage of solution construction tends to generate high quality solutions. Based on these observations, an iterative hybrid approach is developed to adaptively hybridise these two graph colouring heuristics at different stages of solution construction. The overall aim here is to automate the heuristic design process, which draws upon an emerging research theme on developing computer methods to design and adapt heuristics automatically. Experimental results on benchmark exam timetabling and graph colouring problems demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of this adaptive hybrid approach compared with previous methods on automatically generating and adapting heuristics. Indeed, we also show that the approach is competitive with the state of the art human produced methods.

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The properties and characteristics of a recently proposed anisotropic metamaterial based upon layered arrays of tightly coupled pairs of "dogbone" shaped stripe conductors have been explored in detail. It has been found that a metamaterial composed of such stacked layers exhibits artificial magnetism and may support backward wave propagation. The equivalent network models of the constitutive conductor pairs arranged in the periodic array have been devised and applied to the identification of the specific types of resonances, and to the analysis of their contribution into the effective dielectric and magnetic properties of the artificial medium. The proposed "dogbone" configuration of conductor pairs has the advantage of being entirely realizable and assemblable in planar technology. It also appears more prospective than simple cut-wire or metal-plate pairs because the additional geometrical parameters provide an efficient control of separation between the electric and magnetic resonances that, in turn, makes it possible to obtain a fairly broadband left-handed behaviour of the structure at low frequencies.

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In this letter, we propose a simple space-time code to simultaneously achieve both the space and time diversities over time dispersive channels by using two-dimensional lattice constellations and Alamouti codes. The proposed scheme still reserves full space diversity and double-real-symbols joint maximum likelihood decoding which has the similar computation complexity as the Alamouti code.

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The study investigates how producer-specific environmental factors influence the performance of Irish credit unions. The empirical analysis uses a two-stage approach. The first stage measures efficiency by a data envelopment analysis (DEA) estimator, which explicitly incorporates the production of undesirable outputs such as bad loans in the modelling, and the second stage uses truncated regression to infer how various factors influence the (bias-corrected) estimated efficiency. A key finding of the analysis is that 68% of Irish credit unions do not incur an extra opportunity cost in meeting regulatory guidance on bad debt.

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Monolithic catalysts are widely used as structured catalysts, especially in the abatement of pollutants. Probing what happens inside these monoliths during operation is, therefore, vital for modelling and prediction of the catalyst behavior. SpaciMS is a spatially resolved capillary-inlet mass spectroscopy system allowing for the generation of spatially resolved maps of the reactions within monoliths. In this study SpaciMS results combined with 3D CFD modelling demonstrate that SpaciMS is a highly sensitive and minimally invasive technique that can provide reaction maps as well as catalytic temporal behavior. Herein we illustrate this by examining kinetic oscillations during a CO oxidation reaction over a Pt/Rh on alumina catalyst supported on a cordierite monolith. These oscillations were only observed within the monolith by SpaciMS between 30 and 90% CO conversion. Equivalent experiments performed in a plug-flow reactor using this catalyst in a crushed form over a similar range of reaction conditions did not display any oscillations demonstrating the importance of intra monolith analysis. This work demonstrates that the SpaciMS offers an accurate and comprehensive picture of structured catalysts under operation.

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Seismic refraction and electrical resistivity geophysical techniques were used to reconstruct the internal architecture of a drumlin in Co. Down, Northern Ireland. Geophysical results were both validated and complemented by borehole drilling, ground water flow modelling, and geologic mapping. The geophysical anatomy of the drumlin consists of five successive layers with depth including; topsoil, partially saturated and saturated glacial tills, and weathered and more competent greywacke bedrock. There are numerous, often extensive inclusions of clay, sand, gravel, cobbles, and boulders within the topsoil and the till units. Together geophysical and geotechnical findings imply that the drumlin is part of the subglacial lodgement, melt-out, debris flow, sheet flow facies described by previous authors, and formed by re-sedimentation and streamlining of pre-existing sediments during deglaciation of the Late Devensian ice sheet. Seismic refraction imaging is particularly well suited to delineating layering within the drumlin, and is able to reconstruct depths to interfaces to within ± 0.5 m accuracy. Refraction imaging ascertained that the weathered bedrock layer is continuous and of substantial thickness, so that it acts as a basal aquifer which underdrains the bulk of the drumlin. Electrical resistivity imaging was found to be capable of delineating relative spatial changes in the moisture content of the till units, as well as mapping sedimentary inclusions within the till. The moisture content appeared to be elevated near the margins of the drumlin, which may infer a weakening of the drumlin slopes. Our findings advocate the use of seismic refraction and electrical resistivity methods in future sedimentological and geotechnical studies of internal drumlin architecture and drumlin formation, owing particularly to the superior, 3- D spatial coverage of these methods.

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We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

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While the incorporation of mathematical and engineering methods has greatly advanced in other areas of the life sciences, they have been under-utilized in the field of animal welfare. Exceptions are beginning to emerge and share a common motivation to quantify 'hidden' aspects in the structure of the behaviour of an individual, or group of animals. Such analyses have the potential to quantify behavioural markers of pain and stress and quantify abnormal behaviour objectively. This review seeks to explore the scope of such analytical methods as behavioural indicators of welfare. We outline four classes of analyses that can be used to quantify aspects of behavioural organization. The underlying principles, possible applications and limitations are described for: fractal analysis, temporal methods, social network analysis, and agent-based modelling and simulation. We hope to encourage further application of analyses of behavioural organization by highlighting potential applications in the assessment of animal welfare, and increasing awareness of the scope for the development of new mathematical methods in this area.