Using Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to predict length of hospital stay following trauma in New Zealand

Aim – To develop and assess the predictive capabilities of a statistical model that relates routinely collected Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) variables to length of hospital stay (LOS) in survivors of traumatic injury. Method – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until discharge from Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Cubic-root transformed LOS was analysed using two-level mixed-effects regression models. Results – 1498 eligible patients were identified, 1446 (97%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 52 (3%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1096 (76%) were male, average age was 37 years (range: 15-94 years), and LOS and TRISS score information was available for 1362 patients. Spearman’s correlation and the median absolute prediction error between LOS and the original TRISS model was ρ=0.31 and 10.8 days, respectively, and between LOS and the final multivariable two-level mixed-effects regression model was ρ=0.38 and 6.0 days, respectively. Insufficient data were available for the analysis of penetrating mechanism models. Conclusions – Neither the original TRISS model nor the refined model has sufficient ability to accurately or reliably predict LOS. Additional predictor variables for LOS and other indicators for morbidity need to be considered.

Contemporary New Zealand coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score: TRISS(NZ)

Aims – To develop local contemporary coefficients for the Trauma Injury Severity Score in New Zealand, TRISS(NZ), and to evaluate their performance at predicting survival against the original TRISS coefficients. Methods – Retrospective cohort study of adults who sustained a serious traumatic injury, and who survived until presentation at Auckland City, Middlemore, Waikato, or North Shore Hospitals between 2002 and 2006. Coefficients were estimated using ordinary and multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. Results – 1735 eligible patients were identified, 1672 (96%) injured from a blunt mechanism and 63 (4%) from a penetrating mechanism. For blunt mechanism trauma, 1250 (75%) were male and average age was 38 years (range: 15-94 years). TRISS information was available for 1565 patients of whom 204 (13%) died. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves was 0.901 (95%CI: 0.879-0.923) for the TRISS(NZ) model and 0.890 (95% CI: 0.866-0.913) for TRISS (P<0.001). Insufficient data were available to determine coefficients for penetrating mechanism TRISS(NZ) models. Conclusions – Both TRISS models accurately predicted survival for blunt mechanism trauma. However, TRISS(NZ) coefficients were statistically superior to TRISS coefficients. A strong case exists for replacing TRISS coefficients in the New Zealand benchmarking software with these updated TRISS(NZ) estimates.

Community information literacy : developing an Australian research agenda

The majority of information literacy (IL) research has been con ducted within the confi nes of educational or workplace settings. Little to no research has explored IL in community contexts. This paper will consider the current state of IL research within the community setting. The paper uses three re cent IL studies as a vehicle for developing an Australian com munity IL research agenda. Three observations are made about community information literacy (CIL) and CIL research: (i) it is multi- and inter-disciplinary; (ii) it has a learning lens; and (iii) it has a pluralistic approach. The CIL research agenda should be seen as practical and real – it is about real people, doing real things in real life contexts. To achieve this we must bring to gether a research community that is ready to cross boundar ies and forge relationships with other groups. In addition a coherent and structured research agenda should be established.

Bringing the internet down to earth : emerging spaces of locative media

Web 1.0 referred to the early, read-only internet; Web 2.0 refers to the ‘read-write web’ in which users actively contribute to as well as consume online content; Web 3.0 is now being used to refer to the convergence of mobile and Web 2.0 technologies and applications. One of the most important developments in mobile 3.0 is geography: with many mobile phones now equipped with GPS, mobiles promise to “bring the internet down to earth” through geographically-aware, or locative media. The internet was earlier heralded as “the death of geography” with predictions that with anyone able to access information from anywhere, geography would no longer matter. But mobiles are disproving this. GPS allows the location of the user to be pinpointed, and the mobile internet allows the user to access locally-relevant information, or to upload content which is geotagged to the specific location. It also allows locally-specific content to be sent to the user when the user enters a specific space. Location-based services are one of the fastest-growing segments of the mobile internet market: the 2008 AIMIA report indicates that user access of local maps increased by 347% over the previous 12 months, and restaurant guides/reviews increased by 174%. The central tenet of cultural geography is that places are culturally-constructed, comprised of the physical space itself, culturally-inflected perceptions of that space, and people’s experiences of the space (LeFebvre 1991). This paper takes a cultural geographical approach to locative media, anatomising the various spaces which have emerged through locative media, or “the geoweb” (Lake 2004). The geoweb is such a new concept that to date, critical discourse has treated it as a somewhat homogenous spatial formation. In order to counter this, and in order to demonstrate the dynamic complexity of the emerging spaces of the geoweb, the paper provides a topography of different types of locative media space: including the personal/aesthetic in which individual users geotag specific physical sites with their own content and meanings; the commercial, like the billboards which speak to individuals as they pass in Minority Report; and the social, in which one’s location is defined by the proximity of friends rather than by geography.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

What determines the health-related quality of life among regional and rural breast cancer survivors?

Objective: To assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of regional and rural breast cancer survivors at 12 months post-diagnosis and to identify correlates of HRQoL. Methods: 323 (202 regional and 121 rural) Queensland women diagnosed with unilateral breast cancer in 2006/2007 participated in a population-based, cross-sectional study. HRQoL was measured using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy, Breast plus arm morbidity (FACT-B+4) self-administered questionnaire. Results: In age-adjusted analyses, mean HRQoL scores of regional breast cancer survivors were comparable to their rural counterparts 12 months post-diagnosis (122.9, 95% CI: 119.8, 126.0 vs. 123.7, 95% CI: 119.7, 127.8; p>0.05). Irrespective of residence, younger (<50 years) women reported lower HRQoL than older (50+ years) women (113.5, 95% CI: 109.3, 117.8 vs. 128.2, 95%CI: 125.1, 131.2; p<0.05). Those women who received chemotherapy, reported two complications post-surgery, had poorer upper-body function than most, reported more stress, reduced coping, who were socially isolated, had no confidante for social-emotional support, had unmet healthcare needs, and low health self-efficacy reported lower HRQoL scores. Together, these factors explained 66% of the variance in overall HRQoL. The pattern of results remained similar for younger and older age groups. Conclusions and Implications: The results underscore the importance of supporting and promoting regional and rural breast cancer programs that are designed to improve physical functioning, reduce stress and provide psychosocial support following diagnosis. Further, the information can be used by general practitioners and other allied health professionals for identifying women at risk of poorer HRQoL.

The malnutrition screening tool is a useful tool for identifying malnutrition risk in residential aged care

Background: The Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) is a valid nutrition screening tool in the acute hospital setting but has not been assessed in residential aged care facilities. The aim of this secondary analysis was to determine whether the MST could be a useful nutrition screening tool when compared with a full nutrition assessment by Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) in the residential aged care setting. ----- Methods: Two hundred and eighty-five residents (29% male; mean age: 84 ± 9 years) from eight residential aged care facilities in Australia participated. A secondary analysis of data collected during a nutrition intervention study was conducted. The MST consists of two questions related to recent weight loss and appetite. While the MST was not specifically applied, weight loss and appetite information was available and an estimated MST score (0-5) calculated. Nutritional status was assessed by a research assistant trained in using SGA. ----- Results: Malnutrition prevalence was 42.8% (122 malnourished out of 285 residents). Compared to the SGA, the MST was an effective predictor of nutritional risk (sensitivity = 83.6%, specificity = 65.6%, positive predictive value = 0.65, negative predictive value =0.84). ----- Conclusions: The components of the MST have acceptable sensitivity and specificity suggesting it can play a valuable role in quickly identifying malnutrition risk in the residential aged care setting. Further prospective research using the MST tool against a broader array of objective and subjective nutritional parameters is required to confirm its validity as a screening tool in aged care settings.

Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Factors associated with recurrence of venous leg ulcers : a survey and retrospective chart review

Background: Chronic venous leg ulcers have a significant impact on older individuals’ well-being and health care resources. Unfortunately after healing, up to 70% recur. ----- Objective: To examine the relationships between leg ulcer recurrence and physical activity, compression, nutrition, health, psychosocial indicators and self-care activities in order to provide information for preventive strategies. ----- Design: Survey and retrospective chart review Settings: Two metropolitan hospital and three community-based leg ulcer clinics. ----- Subjects: A sample of 122 community living patients with leg ulcer of venous aetiology which had healed between 12 and 36 months prior to the survey. ---- Methods: Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history and previous ulcer history and treatments; and from self-report questionnaires on physical activity, nutrition, psychosocial measures, ulcer recurrences and history, compression and other self-care activities. All variables significantly associated with recurrence at the bivariate level were entered into a logistic regression model to determine their independent influences on recurrence. ----- Results: Median follow-up time was 24 months (range 12–40 months). Sixty-eight percent of participants had recurred. Bivariate analysis found recurrence was positively associated with ulcer duration, cardiac disease, a Body Mass Index ≤20, scoring as at-risk of malnutrition and depression; and negatively associated with increased physical activity, leg elevation, wearing Class 2 (20–25mmHg) or Class 3 (30–40mmHg) compression hosiery, and higher self-efficacy scores. After adjusting for all variables, an hour/day of leg elevation (OR=0.04, 95% CI=0.01–0.17), days/week in Class 2 or 3 compression hosiery (OR=0.53, 95% CI=0.34–0.81), Yale Physical Activity Survey score (OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.92–0.98), cardiac disease (OR=5.03, 95% CI=1.01–24.93) and General Self-Efficacy scores (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.72–0.94) remained significantly associated (p<0.05) with recurrence. ----- Conclusions: Results indicate a history of cardiac disease is a risk factor for recurrence; while leg elevation, physical activity, compression hosiery and strategies to improve self-efficacy are likely to prevent recurrence.

Learning barriers in continuous product innovation

In today's dynamic and turbulent environment companies are required to increase their effectiveness and efficiency, exploit synergy and learn product innovation processes in order to build competitive advantage. To be able to stimulate and facilitate learning in product innovation, it is necessary to gain an insight into factors that hinder learning and to design effective intervention strategies that may help remove barriers to learning. This article reports on learning barriers identified by product innovation managers in over 70 companies in the UK, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and Australia. The results show that the majority of the barriers identified can be labelled as organisational defensive routines leading to a chain of behaviours; lack of resources leads to under-appreciation of the value of valid information, absence of informed choice and lack of personal responsibility. An intervention theory is required which enables individuals and organisations to interrupt defensive patterns in ways that prevents them from recurring.