An approach to health and safety in E.U. forestry operations – Hazards and preventive measures

Forestry in general and logging in particular continue to be among the three most hazardous sectors in European countries. The aim of this article is to characterize health and safety problems and solutions in E.U. forestry operations, and particularly in Portuguese operations. Forest types, production, employment and ownership are used to characterize the forest sector. Forestry accidents and health problems data are mentioned. Typical hazards associated to the nature of logging operations are systematized. Preventive measures, focused on a wide spectrum of measures, making safety considerations an integral feature of all operational activities from planning to organization to execution and supervision of work are emphasized in this article.

Determinantes da localização do Investimento direto estrangeiro nas economias emergentes

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças, sob orientação da Doutora Celsa Maria de Carvalho Machado

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Racial inequalities in the socioeconomic, demographic and health conditions of elderly from Maranhão State, Legal Amazon, Brazil: a population-based study

Aging with quality of life does not occur equally among the racial groups of Brazilian elderly, and few studies have analyzed this issue in the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. The objective of this study was to investigate racial inequalities in the socioeconomic, demographic and health conditions of elderly residents of Maranhão state, Brazil. The present work is a cross-sectional study of 450 elders aged 60 years or older included in the 2008 National Household Sample Survey. The prevalence of socioeconomic, demographic, health and habit indicators and of risk factors were estimated in white, brown and black racial categories that were self-reported by the survey participants. The chi-square test was used for comparisons (a=5%). The majority of the elderly respondents identified themselves as brown (66.4%) or white (23.3%). There were significant socioeconomic, demographic, habit and lifestyle differences among the racial groups. Most of the black and brown elderly lived alone, reported lower educational levels and were in the lowest quintile for income. These respondents were also highly dependent on the Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS), exhibited low rates of screening mammograms and lower physical activity levels and had a greater proportion of smokers. However, there was no difference in the prevalence of health indicators or in the proportion of elderly by gender, age, social role in the family or the urban-rural location of the household. These results indicate the presence of racial inequalities in the socioeconomic and demographic status and in the practice of healthy habits and lifestyles among elderly from Maranhão, but suggest equity in health status. The results also suggest the complexity and challenges of interlinking race with socioeconomic aspects, and the findings reinforce the need for the implementation of public policies for these population groups.

Political economics and normative analysis

The approaches and opinions of economists often dominate public policy discussion. Economists have gained this privileged position partly (or perhaps mainly) because of the obvious relevance of their subject matter, but also because of the unified methodology (neo-classical economics) that the vast majority of modern economists bring to their analysis of policy problems and proposed solutions. The idea of Pareto efficiency and its potential trade-off with equity is a central idea that is understood by all economists and this common language provides the economics profession with a powerful voice in public affairs. The purpose of this paper is to review and reflect upon the way in which economists find themselves analysing and providing suggestions for social improvements and how this role has changed over roughly the last 60 years. We focus on the fundamental split in the public economics tradition between those that adhere to public finance and those that adhere to public choice. A pure public finance perspective views failures in society as failures of the market. The solutions are technical, as might be enacted by a benevolent dictator. The pure public choice view accepts (sometimes grudgingly) that markets may fail, but so, it insists, does politics. This signals institutional reforms to constrain the potential for political failure. Certain policy recommendations may be viewed as compatible with both traditions, but other policy proposals will be the opposite of that proposed within the other tradition. In recent years a political economics synthesis emerged. This accepts that institutions are very important and governments require constraints, but that some degree of benevolence on the part of policy makers should not be assumed non-existent. The implications for public policy from this approach are, however, much less clear and perhaps more piecemeal. We also discuss analyses of systematic failure, not so much on the part of markets or politicians, but by voters. Most clearly this could lead to populism and relaxing the idea that voters necessarily choose their interests. The implications for public policy are addressed. Throughout the paper we will relate the discussion to the experience of UK government policy-making.

Conservation genetics and population monitoring of the Alpine Salamander (Salamandra Atra) :

SUMMARYIn the context of the biodiversity crisis, amphibians are experiencing the most severe worldwide decline of all vertebrates and are in urgent need of better management. Efficient conservation strategies rely on sound knowledge of the species biology and of the genetic and demographic processes that might impair their welfare. Nonetheless, these processes are poorly understood in amphibians. Delineating population boundaries remains consequently problematic for these species, while it is of critical importance to define adequate management units for conservation. In this study, our attention focused on the alpine salamander (Salamandra atra), a species that deserves much interest in terms of both conservation biology and evolution. This endemic alpine species shows peculiar life-history traits (viviparity, reduced activity period, slow maturation) and has a slow population turnover, which might be problematic for its persistence in a changing environment. Due to its elusive behaviour (individuals spend most of their time underground and are unavailable for sampling), dynamic processes of gene and individuals were poorly understood for that species. Consequently, its conservation status could hardly be reliably assessed. Similarly the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) also poses special challenges for conservation, as no clear demarcation of geographical populations exists and dispersal patterns are poorly known. Through a phylogeographic analysis, we first studied the evolutionary history of the alpine salamander to better document the distribution of the genetic diversity along its geographical range. This study highlighted the presence of multiple divergent lineages in Italy together with a clear genetic divergence between populations from Northern and Dinaric Alps. These signs of cryptic genetic differentiation, which are not accounted for by the current taxonomy of the species, should not be neglected for further definition of conservation units. In addition, our data supported glacial survival of the species in northern peripheral glacial réfugia and nunataks, a pattern rarely documented for long-lived species. Then, we evaluated the level of gene flow between populations at the local scale and tested for asymmetries in male versus female dispersal using both field-based (mark-recapture) and genetic approaches. This study revealed high level of gene flow between populations, which stems mainly from male dispersal. This corroborated the idea that salamanders are much better dispersers than hitherto thought and provided a well- supported example of male-biased dispersal in amphibians. In a third step, based on a mark- recapture survey, we addressed the problem of sampling unavailability in alpine salamanders and evaluated its impact on two monitoring methods. We showed that about three quarters of individuals were unavailable for sampling during sampling sessions, a proportion that can vary with climatic conditions. If not taken into account, these complexities would result in false assumptions on population trends and misdirect conservation efforts. Finally, regarding the daunting task of delineating management units, our attention was drawn on the fire salamander. We conducted a local population genetic study that revealed high levels of gene flow among sampling sites. Management units for this species should consequently be large. Interestingly, despite the presence of several landscape features often reported to act as barriers, genetic breaks occurred at unexpected places. This suggests that landscape features may rather have idiosyncratic effects on population structure. In conclusion, this work brought new insights on both genetic and demographic processes occurring in salamanders. The results suggest that some biological paradigms should be taken with caution when particular species are in focus. Species- specific studies remain thus fundamental for a better understanding of species evolution and conservation, particularly in the context of current global changes.RESUMEDans le contexte de la crise de la biodiversité actuelle, les amphibiens subissent le déclin le plus important de tous les vertébrés et ont urgemment besoin d'une meilleure protection. L'établissement de stratégies de conservation efficaces repose sur des connaissances solides de la biologie des espèces et des processus génétiques et démographiques pouvant menacer leur survie. Ces processus sont néanmoins encore peu étudiés chez les amphibiens.Dans cette étude, notre attention s'est portée sur la salamandre noire (Salamandra atra), une espèce endémique des Alpes dont les traits d'histoire de vie atypiques (viviparité, phase d'activité réduite, lent turnover des populations) pourraient la rendre très vulnérable face aux changements environnementaux. Par ailleurs, en raison de son comportement cryptique (les individus passent la plupart de leur temps sous terre) la dynamique des gènes et des individus est mal comprise chez cette espèce. Il est donc difficile d'évaluer son statut de conservation de manière fiable. La salamandre tachetée {Salamandra salamandra), pour qui il n'existe aucune démarcation géographique apparente des populations, pose également des problèmes en termes de gestion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié l'histoire évolutive de la salamandre noire afin de mieux décrire la distribution de sa diversité génétique au sein de son aire géographique. Cela a permis de mettre en évidence la présence de multiples lignées en Italie, ainsi qu'une nette divergence entre les populations du nord des Alpes et des Alpes dinariques. Ces résultats seront à prendre en compte lorsqu'il s'agira de définir des unités de conservation pour cette espèce. D'autre part, nos données soutiennent l'hypothèse d'une survie glaciaire dans des refuges nordiques périglaciaires ou dans des nunataks, fait rarement documenté pour une espèce longévive. Nous avons ensuite évalué la différentiation génétique des populations à l'échelle locale, ce qui a révélé d'important flux de gènes, ainsi qu'une asymétrie de dispersion en faveur des mâles. Ces résultats corroborent l'idée que les amphibiens dispersent mieux que ce que l'on pensait, et fournissent un exemple robuste de dispersion biaisée en faveur des mâles chez les amphibiens. Nous avons ensuite abordé le problème de [5; inaccessibilité des individus à la capture. Nous avons montré qu'environ trois quarts des individus sont inaccessibles lors des échantillonnages, une proportion qui peut varier en fonction des conditions climatiques. Ignoré, ce processus pourrait entraîner une mauvaise interprétation des fluctuations de populations ainsi qu'une mauvaise allocation des efforts de conservation. Concernant la définition d'unités de gestion pour la salamandre tachetée, nous avons pu mettre en évidence un flux de gènes important entre les sites échantillonnés. Les unités de gestion pour cette espèce devraient donc être étendues. Etonnamment, malgré la présence de nombreuses barrières potentielles au flux de gènes, les démarcations génétiques sont apparues à des endroits inattendus. En conclusion, ce travail a apporté une meilleure compréhension des processus génétiques et démographiques en action chez les salamandres. Les résultats suggèrent que certains paradigmes biologiques devraient être considérés avec précaution quand il s'agit de les appliquer à des espèces particulières. Les études spécifiques demeurent donc fondamentales pour une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution des espèces et leur conservation, tout particulièrement dans le contexte des changements globaux actuels.

Men having sex with men serosorting with casual partners: who, how much, and what risk factors in Switzerland, 2007-2009.

BACKGROUND: Serosorting is practiced by men who have sex with men (MSM) to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. This study evaluates the prevalence of serosorting with casual partners, and analyses the characteristics and estimated numbers of serosorters in Switzerland 2007-2009. METHODS: Data were extracted from cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2007 and 2009 among self-selected MSM recruited online, through gay newspapers, and through gay organizations. Nested models were fitted to ascertain the appropriateness of pooling the datasets. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on pooled data to determine the association between serosorting and demographic, lifestyle-related, and health-related factors. Extrapolations were performed by applying proportions of various types of serosorters to Swiss population data collected in 2007. RESULTS: A significant and stable number of MSM (approximately 39% in 2007 and 2009) intentionally engage in serosorting with casual partners in Switzerland. Variables significantly associated with serosorting were: gay organization membership (aOR = 1.67), frequent internet use for sexual encounters (aOR = 1.71), having had a sexually transmitted infection (STI) at any time in the past 12 months (aOR = 1.70), HIV-positive status (aOR = 0.52), regularly frequenting sex-on-premises venues (aOR = 0.42), and unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with partners of different or unknown HIV status in the past 12 months (aOR = 0.22). Approximately one-fifth of serosorters declared HIV negativity without being tested in the past 12 months; 15.8% reported not knowing their own HIV status. CONCLUSION: The particular risk profile of serosorters having UAI with casual partners (multiple partners, STI history, and inadequate testing frequency) requires specific preventive interventions tailored to HIV status.

(Endogenous) occupational choices and job satisfaction among recent PhD recipients: evidence from Catalonia

Drawing on data from two successive cohorts of PhD graduates, this paper analyses differences in overall job satisfaction and specific job domain satisfaction among PhDs employed in different sectors four years after completing their doctorate degrees. Covariate-adjusted job satisfaction differentials suggest that, compared to faculty members, PhD holders employed outside traditional academic and research jobs are more satisfied with the pecuniary facets of their work (principally, because of higher earnings), but significantly less satisfied with the content of their job and with how well the job matches their skills (and, in the case of public sector workers, with their prospects of promotion). The evidence regarding the overall job satisfaction of the PhD holders indicates that working in the public or private sectors is associated with less work well-being, which cannot be fully compensated by the better pecuniary facets of the job. It also appears that being employed in academia or in research centres provides almost the same perceived degree of satisfaction with the job and with its four specific domains. We also take into account the endogenous sorting of PhD holders into different occupations based on latent personal traits that might be related to job satisfaction. The selectivity-corrected job satisfaction differentials reveal the importance of self-selection based on unobservable traits, and confirm the existence of a certain penalisation for working in occupations other than academia or research, which is especially marked in the case of satisfaction with job content and job-skills match. The paper presents additional interesting evidence about the determinants of occupational choice among PhD holders, highlighting the relevance of certain academic attributes (especially PhD funding and pre-and-post-doc research mobility) in affecting the likelihood of being employed in academia, in a research centre or in other public or private sector job four years after completing their doctorate programme.

Massive nest-box supplementation boosts fecundity, survival and even immigration without altering mating and reproductive behaviour in a rapidly recovered bird population.

Habitat restoration measures may result in artificially high breeding density, for instance when nest-boxes saturate the environment, which can negatively impact species' demography. Potential risks include changes in mating and reproductive behaviour such as increased extra-pair paternity, conspecific brood parasitism, and polygyny. Under particular cicumstances, these mechanisms may disrupt reproduction, with populations dragged into an extinction vortex. With the use of nuclear microsatellite markers, we investigated the occurrence of these potentially negative effects in a recovered population of a rare secondary cavity-nesting farmland bird of Central Europe, the hoopoe (Upupa epops). High intensity farming in the study area has resulted in a total eradication of cavity trees, depriving hoopoes from breeding sites. An intensive nest-box campaign rectified this problem, resulting in a spectacular population recovery within a few years only. There was some concern, however, that the new, high artificially-induced breeding density might alter hoopoe mating and reproductive behaviour. As the species underwent a serious demographic bottleneck in the 1970-1990s, we also used the microsatellite markers to reconstitute the demo-genetic history of the population, looking in particular for signs of genetic erosion. We found i) a low occurrence of extra-pair paternity, polygyny and conspecific brood parasitism, ii) a high level of neutral genetic diversity (mean number of alleles and expected heterozygosity per locus: 13.8 and 83%, respectively) and, iii) evidence for genetic connectivity through recent immigration of individuals from well differentiated populations. The recent increase in breeding density did thus not induce so far any noticeable detrimental changes in mating and reproductive behaviour. The demographic bottleneck undergone by the population in the 1970s-1990s was furthermore not accompanied by any significant drop in neutral genetic diversity. Finally, genetic data converged with a concomitant demographic study to evidence that immigration strongly contributed to local population recovery.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Quality of life of caregivers for patients of cerebrovascular accidents: association of (socio-demographic) characteristics and burden

OBJECTIVE Investigating the association between quality of life with socio-demographic characteristics and the burden of caregivers for individuals with cerebrovascular accident sequelae. METHOD A descriptive, cross-sectional study with a sample composed of 136 caregivers. For data collection, a semi-structured questionnaire, the Barthel, Burden Interview and Short-Form-36 scales were used. Correlation analysis, t-Student test and F-test were used for the analysis in order to compare averages. RESULTS Significant averages in quality of life were demonstrated in association with female caregivers and those over 60 years in the field 'functional capacity,' and in the domains of 'mental health' and 'vitality' for those with higher income. Regarding burden association, the highlighted areas were 'functional capacity,' 'physical aspects,' 'emotional aspects' and 'pain.' CONCLUSION The creation of public policies and social support to effectively reduce the burden on caregivers is a necessity.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

The impact of trade liberalization on skill upgrading. Evidence from Argentina

In this paper I study the effects of a regional free trade agreement on the demand for skill.I start by documenting a series of facts to shed light on the determinants of a steep increasein the relative demand of skilled labor in a panel of Argentinean industrial firms covering thetrade liberalization period. First, this is not explained by labor reallocation across industriesor firms but by skill upgrading within firms. Second, exporters upgrade skill faster than nonexporters. Third, firms upgrading skill also upgrade technology. These findings are consistentwith a model where a reduction in trading partner s tariffs induces the most productive firms(exporters) to adopt skill-intensive production technologies. Indeed, I find that the reduction inBrazil s tariffs induces the most productive Argentinean firms to upgrade skill, while the leastproductive ones downgrade. One third of the increase in the relative demand for skill can beattributed to the reduction in Brazil s tariffs.

Under-achievement and the glass ceiling: Evidence from a TV game show

We use a Colombian TV game show to test gender differences in competitivebehavior where there is no opportunity for discrimination and females face no genderspecificexternal constraints. Each game started with six contestants who had toanswer general knowledge questions in private. There were five rounds of questionsand, at the end of each, one participant was eliminated. Despite equality in startingnumbers, women earn less than men and exit the game at a faster rate. In particular,there are more voluntary withdrawals by women than men. We draw an analogybetween the game and the process by which employees rise through the levels of acorporation. As such, we note that glass ceilings may result, in part, from women sown behavior and this raises the issue of how women are socialized to behave. At thesame time, our results illustrate that maintaining and promoting gender diversity at thelower/middle ranks of organizations is necessary to obtain gender diversity at the top.

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.