Ensaios sôbre lepra experimental: inoculações de três amostras de bacilos ácido-álcool resistentes (amostras "Chaves II", "Emilia" e "Hecke") isoladas de leprosos, em trinta doentes da Colônia Mirueira

Com o fim de produzir o fenômeno de KOCH, os A. A. inocularam em 30 leprosos da Colônia Mirueira (Recife), de várias idades e formas clínicas, emulsões vivas de três culturas de bacilos ácido-álcool resistentes isolados de leprosos pro um dêles (S.A.). As doses inoculadas foram de 0,2 cc., por via intradérmica, em cada doente, das amostras "CII", "E" e "H" e mais da Leprolina S.A. (antígeno morto). No 10º dia da inoculação verificou-se que 24 dos 30 pacientes tiveram reação geral intensa; 2, reação moderada e 4, nenhuma reação geral. 16 dos 30 tiveram reação leprótica, sendo 10 em casos ativos (lepromatosos) e 6 em inativos, e 17 dos 30 tiveram adenopatias inguinais. O inóculo "CII" produziu escaras de 1 x 1 e 2 x 2 cm. de diâmetro, com destruição total da pele, nos 30 pacientes (o total dêles); o inóculo "E" produziu escaras de igual intensidade em 29, o inóculo "H", escaras muitos mais benignas em 23, e a Leprolina em 10, naturalmente por ação concomitante de um dos outros três inóculos. No 10º dia foram semeadas em meio de LOEWENSTEIN secreções das escaras de sete dos 30 doentes, num total de 20 tubos, dos quais 19 produziram retroculuras, a amioria contaminada por fungos ou por bactérias cianófilas. De um doente foi obtido retrocultura cromogênica da escara produzida na intradérmoreação pela "Leprolina S. A.", macro e microscòpricamente indiferencável das amostras "CII" e "E". Aliás, pela extensiva experimentação feita com estas duas amostras, estamos nos inclinando por considerá-las como idênticas. No 18º dia da inoculação foram feitos 30 esfregaços de secreções de lesões experimentais de 13 doentes, com 15 resultados positivos (50%), apesar do exame tardio. As morfologias macro e microscópica das retroculturas obtidas em Recife confirmam os caracteres descritos nas culturas originais. Dêste rápido ensaio se conclui que a maioria dos pacientes apresentou o fenômeno de KOCH parcial ou integral, com as clássicas reações gerais, focais e locais. A falta de recursos de laboratório na Colônia não permitiu melhor aproveitamento de tão precioso material experimental, e por isso êste trabalho apresenta várias lacunas.

Ensaios de micologia contribuição para o conhecimento das Esporotricoses

The author describes the forms found in material obtained from a human lesion localized in the mouth. The patient was a farmer and the diagnosis unknown. The author found yeast forms, some germinating, resembling those found in the mycosis of LUTZ. It was Sporotricosis and only once, in 96 cases, has the author found these fungous forms in the suspected material. The cultures in Sabouraud glucose and in many other media were positive for Sporotrichum, resembling that described by BENEDEK in 1926 (variety?) principally by the reddish colour of some cultures. The author thinks there is, perhaps, a mutation influenced by the surroundings and the light in certain cultures and that the dark pigment is the dominant one. He considers that the pigment will not do for the differentiation of species and that it is, really, Sporotrichum Schencki-Beurmanni. The author calls attention to the question of diagnosis and studies separately, each of the elements in which his opinion is based, finding that only a macro and microscopic study of the cultures decides the question.

O nódulo atrioventricular e o feixe de his no homem

A demonstração do nódulo atrioventricular e do feixe de His, no coração humano, não oferece dificuldade especial, uma vez que seja seguida a técnica consagrada. A negação da sua existência, feita há cêrca de 20 anos atraz, é atribuível à não observância dêsse cuidado. A documentação apresentada refere-se a um paciente do sexo feminino, de côr branca, com 36 anos de idade, não infectado pelo Schizotrypanum cruzi, cujo coração pesava 310 g, sendo considerado macro e microscòpicamente, normal. Destina-se ela a servir de têrmo de comparação para a que será publicada, oportunamente, sôbre a cardiopatia crônica na doença de Chagas. Confirmamos o que dizem muitos autores quando assinalam a ausência completa de células ganglionares e de nervos, no nódulo atrioventricular, no tronco comum do feixe His e em seus dois ramos, quando observados no homem. Contrasta isso, fortemente, com o que existe, nas mesmas estruturas, no coração dos ungulados. Verificamos, não raramente, continuidade entre fibras musculares do tecido específico, no ramo esquerdo do feixe de His e fibras musculares ventriculares, sendo o ramo esquerdo constituído, em certa proporção, por fibras com caracters intermediários entre fibras musculares ordinárias e fibras de Purkinje (fibras de transição). Algumas vêzes fibras com características das de Purkinie aparecem em grupos musculares do septo ventricular imediatamente adjacentes ao ramo esquerdo, dificultando a demarcação exata daquele ramo. Reproduzimos, textualmente, pontos de mior interêsse, na literatura consultada, quando receavamos que a tradução não pudesse traduzir o pensamento exato do autor ou pudesse dar tal impressão.

Consuming sports: distinction, univorism and omnivorism

The question of the social usages of culture and its links with social groups continues to be a topic of discussion today. The aim of this article is to contribute to the debate by examining coherence in the choice of physical activities and sports. The study focuses on the upper social groups, questioning, from a macro-sociological standpoint, their possible omnivority and their dissonance of choice with regard to these activities. Based on a quantitative survey of the sports participated in by the French, the study shows that omnivority and massification of activities are major phenomena. However, the upper social groups in France remain distinguishable both in terms of their "high level of omnivority" and their choice of distinctive activities. Dissonance is another of their characteristics but to a lesser extent.

Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix for Libya

In this paper a Social Accounting Matrix is constructed for Libya for the year 2000. The procedure was divided into three steps. First, a macro SAM was constructed to consistently capture and represent the macroeconomic framework of the Libyan economy in 2000. Second, that macro SAM was disaggregated into a micro SAM incorporating the accounts for individual activities, primary factors and the main economic institutions. But the SAM obtained in this way was not balanced. So in thE final step we balanced the SAM using a cross-entropy procedure in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). This SAM integrates national income, inputoutput, flow-of-funds, and foreign trade statistics into a comprehensive and consistent dataset. The lack of coherent time series data for Libya is a serious obstacle for applied research that uses econometric analysis. Our main intension in constructing this SAM has been one of providing benchmark data for economy-wide analysis using CGE modelling for Libya.

Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level

1. Statistical modelling is often used to relate sparse biological survey data to remotely derived environmental predictors, thereby providing a basis for predictively mapping biodiversity across an entire region of interest. The most popular strategy for such modelling has been to model distributions of individual species one at a time. Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level may, however, confer significant benefits for applications involving very large numbers of species, particularly if many of these species are recorded infrequently. 2. Community-level modelling combines data from multiple species and produces information on spatial pattern in the distribution of biodiversity at a collective community level instead of, or in addition to, the level of individual species. Spatial outputs from community-level modelling include predictive mapping of community types (groups of locations with similar species composition), species groups (groups of species with similar distributions), axes or gradients of compositional variation, levels of compositional dissimilarity between pairs of locations, and various macro-ecological properties (e.g. species richness). 3. Three broad modelling strategies can be used to generate these outputs: (i) 'assemble first, predict later', in which biological survey data are first classified, ordinated or aggregated to produce community-level entities or attributes that are then modelled in relation to environmental predictors; (ii) 'predict first, assemble later', in which individual species are modelled one at a time as a function of environmental variables, to produce a stack of species distribution maps that is then subjected to classification, ordination or aggregation; and (iii) 'assemble and predict together', in which all species are modelled simultaneously, within a single integrated modelling process. These strategies each have particular strengths and weaknesses, depending on the intended purpose of modelling and the type, quality and quantity of data involved. 4. Synthesis and applications. The potential benefits of modelling large multispecies data sets using community-level, as opposed to species-level, approaches include faster processing, increased power to detect shared patterns of environmental response across rarely recorded species, and enhanced capacity to synthesize complex data into a form more readily interpretable by scientists and decision-makers. Community-level modelling therefore deserves to be considered more often, and more widely, as a potential alternative or supplement to modelling individual species.

The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion

We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a ‘convergence-trade’ model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in countryspecific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.

Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Subsidies as Optimal Fiscal Stimuli

In the theoretical macroeconomics literature, fiscal policy is almost uniformly taken to mean taxing and spending by a ‘benevolent government’ that exploits the potential aggregate demand externalities inherent in the imperfectly competitive nature of goods markets. Whilst shown to raise aggregate output and employment, these policies crowd-out private consumption and hence typically reduce welfare. In this paper we consider the use of ‘tax-and-subsidise’ instead of ‘taxand- spend’ policies on account of their widespread use by governments, even in the recent recession, to stimulate economic activity. Within a static general equilibrium macro-model with imperfectly competitive good markets we examine the effect of wage and output subsidies and show that, for a small open economy, positive tax and subsidy rates exist which maximise welfare, rendering no intervention as a suboptimal state. We also show that, within a two-country setting, a Nash non-cooperative symmetric equilibrium with positive tax and subsidy rates exists, and that cooperation between trading partners in setting these rates is more expansionary and leads to an improvement upon the non-cooperative solution.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

A Producer Theory with Business Risks

In this paper, we consider a producer who faces uninsurable business risks due to incomplete spanning of asset markets over stochastic goods market outcomes, and examine how the presence of the uninsurable business risks affects the producer's optimal pricing and production behaviours. Three key (inter-related) results we find are: (1) optimal prices in goods markets comprise ‘markup’ to the extent of market power and ‘premium’ by shadow price of the risks; (2) price inertia as we observe in data can be explained by a joint work of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization condition; (3) the relative responsiveness of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization at optimum is central to the cyclical variation of markups, providing a consistent explanation for procyclical and countercyclical movements. By these results, the proposed theory of producer leaves important implications both micro and macro, and both empirical and theoretical.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro- and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis’ transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro- and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.