Many-sample location and scale tests with quantile-function error distributions /by Azmeri Khan

This thesis, using a computer simulation, studies the effect of the normal distribution assumption on the power of several many-sample location and scale test procedures. It also suggests an almost robust parametric test, namely numerical likelihood ratio test (NLRT) for non-normal situations. The NLRT is found better than all of the tests considered. Some real life data sets were used as examples.

Intelligent energy management for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles : the role of ITS infrastructure in vehicle electrification

The desire to reduce carbon emissions due to transportation sources has led over the past decade to the development of new propulsion technologies, focused on vehicle electrification (including hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles). These propulsion technologies, along with advances in telecommunication and computing power, have the potential of making passenger and commercial vehicles more energy efficient and environment friendly. In particular, energy management algorithms are an integral part of plug-in vehicles and are very important for achieving the performance benefits. The optimal performance of energy management algorithms depends strongly on the ability to forecast energy demand from the vehicle. Information available about environment (temperature, humidity, wind, road grade, etc.) and traffic (traffic density, traffic lights, etc.), is very important in operating a vehicle at optimal efficiency. This article outlines some current technologies that can help achieving this optimum efficiency goal. In addition to information available from telematic and geographical information systems, knowledge of projected vehicle charging demand on the power grid is necessary to build an intelligent energy management controller for future plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. The impact of charging millions of vehicles from the power grid could be significant, in the form of increased loading of power plants, transmission and distribution lines, emissions and economics (information are given and discussed for the US case). Therefore, this effect should be considered in an intelligent way by controlling/scheduling the charging through a communication based distributed control.

Power penalty assessment of OXADM device model - analytical analysis

This OXADM are located in the nodes, which have more than two switching directions in ring networks. The function of OXADM is to flexibility switch the wavelengths among the different input and output ports. Because of the OXADM's imperfect performance, the insertion loss and crosstalk are induced in the system. Analytical modeling method is using to analyze the OXADM structure in crosstalk or power leakage that lead to the power penalty. To overcome this problem, power penalty is needed to be supplied. The insertion of this power penalty depends on few parameters. The parameters that we going to investigate here will be in term of number of operating wavelengths and number of input/output ports as well as the Q factor. The variation of this parameters will affects the amount of the desired power penalty. Simulation results in higher crosstalk or higher power penalty needed as the number of OXADM increases. As the sum of the wavelength and the number of input/output for each OXADM increases, the power penalty will increased as well. Investigation on the maximum Q factors is 6 to get the minimum power penalty at the lowest BER for most of the combination of the sum of the wavelength and the number of input/output for each OXADM.

Evaluation and comparison of type reduction algorithms from a forecast accuracy perspective

A variety of type reduction (TR) algorithms have been proposed for interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2 FLSs). The focus of existing literature is mainly on computational requirements of TR algorithm. Often researchers give more rewards to computationally less expensive TR algorithms. This paper evaluates and compares five frequently used TR algorithms from a forecasting performance perspective. Algorithms are judged based on the generalization power of IT2 FLS models developed using them. Four synthetic and real world case studies with different levels of uncertainty are considered to examine effects of TR algorithms on forecasts accuracies. It is found that Coupland-Jonh TR algorithm leads to models with a better forecasting performance. However, there is no clear relationship between the width of the type reduced set and TR algorithm.

Hybrid prediction method for solar power using different computational intelligence algorithms

Computational Intelligence (CI) holds the key to the development of smart grid to overcome the challenges of planning and optimization through accurate prediction of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This paper presents an architectural framework for the construction of hybrid intelligent predictor for solar power. This research investigates the applicabil- ity of heterogeneous regression algorithms for 6 hour ahead solar power availability forecasting using historical data from Rockhampton, Australia. Real life solar radiation data is collected across six years with hourly resolution from 2005 to 2010. We observe that the hybrid prediction method is suitable for a reliable smart grid energy management. Prediction reliability of the proposed hybrid prediction method is carried out in terms of prediction error performance based on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid method achieved acceptable prediction accuracy. This potential hybrid model is applicable as a local predictor for any proposed hybrid method in real life application for 6 hours in advance prediction to ensure constant solar power supply in the smart grid operation.

Influences of wind energy integration into the distribution network

Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources due to its availability and climate-friendly attributes. Large-scale integration of wind energy sources creates potential technical challenges due to the intermittent nature that needs to be investigated and mitigated as part of developing a sustainable power system for the future. Therefore, this study developed simulation models to investigate the potential challenges, in particular voltage fluctuations, zone substation, and distribution transformer loading, power flow characteristics, and harmonic emissions with the integration of wind energy into both the high voltage (HV) and low voltage (LV) distribution network (DN). From model analysis, it has been clearly indicated that influences of these problems increase with the increased integration of wind energy into both the high voltage and low voltage distribution network, however, the level of adverse impacts is higher in the LV DN compared to the HV DN.

State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.

An effective VAR planning to improve dynamic voltage profile of distribution networks with distributed wind generation

This paper proposes an effective VAR planning based on reactive power margin for the enhancement of dynamic voltage stability in distribution networks with distributed wind generation. The analysis is carried over a distribution test system representative of the Kumamoto area in Japan. The detailed mathematical modeling of the system is also presented. Firstly, this paper provides simulation results showing the effects of composite load on voltage dynamics in the distribution network through an accurate time-domain analysis. Then, a cost-effective combination of shunt capacitor bank and distribution static synchronous compensator (D-STATCOM) is selected to ensure fast voltage recovery after a sudden disturbance. The analysis shows that the proposed approach can reduce the size of compensating devices, which in turn, reduces the cost. It also reduces power loss of the system.

Impact of SCIG and DFIG type wind turbine on the stability of distribution networks: Static and dynamic aspects

This paper presents potential barriers to integrate the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG) and doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) type wind turbine in distribution networks. The analysis is carried out over a 16 bus distribution test system. Both static and dynamic analyses are performed to see the impact of two different generators on the distribution system. The simulation results show that both SCIG and DFIG type wind turbines have significant impact on the static voltage stability, power loss, and dynamic behavior of the system, which should be taken into account to improve systems performance before integrating wind generation in existing distribution networks.

Voltage oscillations in power distribution networks in the presence of DFIGs and induction motor loads

This paper investigates the oscillatory behavior of power distribution systems in the presence of distributed generation. The analysis is carried out over a distribution test system with two doubly fed induction type wind generators and different types of induction motor loads. The system is linearized by the perturbation method. Eigenvalues are calculated to see the modal interaction within the system. The study indicates that interactions between closely placed converter controllers and induction motor loads significantly influence the damping of the oscillatory modes of the system. The critical modes have a frequency of oscillation between the electromechanical and subsynchronous oscillations of power systems. Time-domain simulations are carried out to verify the validity of the modal analysis and to provide a physical feel for the types of oscillations that occur in distribution systems. Finally, significant parameters of the system that affect the damping and frequency of the oscillation are identified.

A control methodology for DFIG type wind turbines connected to distribution networks

This paper proposes a decentralised controller design for doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs) to enhance dynamic performance of distribution networks. The change in the output power due to the variable nature of wind is considered as an uncertain term in the design algorithm. In addition, the interconnection effect of the other subsystems are considered in the design process. The H norm of the uncertain system is found out and simultaneous output-feedback linear controllers are designed based controller is verified on a 16 bus distribution test system for severe disturbances. Simulation results indicate that the designed controller is robust against uncertainties in operating conditions

Characteristics and applications of energy storage system to power network - A review

Maintaining reliability and stability of a power systems in transmission and distribution level becomes a big challenge in present scenario. Grid operators are always responsible to maintain equilibrium between available power generation and demand of end users. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or integration of any renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and to facilitate more renewable energy sources with the grid, energy storage system (ESS) started to be playing an important role with the advancement of the state of the art technology. ESS can also help to get reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network from large scale (above 50MW) to small scale (up to 100KW). Based on the characteristics, each storage technology has their own merits and demerits. This paper carried out extensive review study and verifies merits and demerits of each storage technology and identifies the suitable technology for the future. This paper also has conducted feasibility study with the aid of E-SelectTM tool for various ES technologies in applications point of view at different grid locations. This review study helps to evaluate feasible ES technology for a particular electrical application and also helps to develop smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in efficient way.