Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

A new variational radial basis function approximation for inference in multivariate diffusions

In this paper we present a radial basis function based extension to a recently proposed variational algorithm for approximate inference for diffusion processes. Inference, for state and in particular (hyper-) parameters, in diffusion processes is a challenging and crucial task. We show that the new radial basis function approximation based algorithm converges to the original algorithm and has beneficial characteristics when estimating (hyper-)parameters. We validate our new approach on a nonlinear double well potential dynamical system.

Approximation of photonic crystal fibres with large air holes by the step index fibre model

An equivalent step index fibre with a silica core and air cladding is used to model photonic crystal fibres with large air holes. We model this fibre for linear polarisation (we focus on the lowest few transverse modes of the electromagnetic field). The equivalent step index radius is obtained by equating the lowest two eigenvalues of the model to those calculated numerically for the photonic crystal fibres. The step index parameters thus obtained can then be used to calculate nonlinear parameters like the nonlinear effective area of a photonic crystal fibre or to model nonlinear few-mode interactions using an existing model.

Interocular transfer of spatial adaptation is weak at low spatial frequencies

Adapting one eye to a high contrast grating reduces sensitivity to similar target gratings shown to the same eye, and also to those shown to the opposite eye. According to the textbook account, interocular transfer (IOT) of adaptation is around 60% of the within-eye effect. However, most previous studies on this were limited to using high spatial frequencies, sustained presentation, and criterion-dependent methods for assessing threshold. Here, we measure IOT across a wide range of spatiotemporal frequencies, using a criterion-free 2AFC method. We find little or no IOT at low spatial frequencies, consistent with other recent observations. At higher spatial frequencies, IOT was present, but weaker than previously reported (around 35%, on average, at 8c/deg). Across all conditions, monocular adaptation raised thresholds by around a factor of 2, and observers showed normal binocular summation, demonstrating that they were not binocularly compromised. These findings prompt a reassessment of our understanding of the binocular architecture implied by interocular adaptation. In particular, the output of monocular channels may be available to perceptual decision making at low spatial frequencies.

Numerical approximation of the one-dimensional inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem using a method of fundamental solutions

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the one-dimensional parabolic inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem, where boundary data and the initial condition are to be determined from the Cauchy data prescribed on a given moving interface. In [B.T. Johansson, D. Lesnic, and T. Reeve, A method of fundamental solutions for the one-dimensional inverse Stefan Problem, Appl. Math Model. 35 (2011), pp. 4367–4378], the inverse Stefan problem was considered, where only the boundary data is to be reconstructed on the fixed boundary. We extend the MFS proposed in Johansson et al. (2011) and show that the initial condition can also be simultaneously recovered, i.e. the MFS is appropriate for the inverse Cauchy-Stefan problem. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate results can be efficiently obtained with small computational cost.

Generalized mean field approximation for parallel dynamics of the Ising model

The dynamics of the non-equilibrium Ising model with parallel updates is investigated using a generalized mean field approximation that incorporates multiple two-site correlations at any two time steps, which can be obtained recursively. The proposed method shows significant improvement in predicting local system properties compared to other mean field approximation techniques, particularly in systems with symmetric interactions. Results are also evaluated against those obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. The method is also employed to obtain parameter values for the kinetic inverse Ising modeling problem, where couplings and local field values of a fully connected spin system are inferred from data. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd and SISSA Medialab srl.

Duality of weak and strong scatterer in a Luttinger liquid coupled to massless bosons

We study electronic transport in a Luttinger liquid with an embedded impurity, which is either a weak scatterer (WS) or a weak link (WL), when interacting electrons are coupled to one-dimensional massless bosons (e.g., acoustic phonons). We find that the duality relation, ?WS?WL=1, between scaling dimensions of the electron backscattering in the WS and WL limits, established for the standard Luttinger liquid, holds in the presence of the additional coupling for an arbitrary fixed strength of boson scattering from the impurity. This means that at low temperatures such a system remains either an ideal insulator or an ideal metal, regardless of the scattering strength. On the other hand, when fermion and boson scattering from the impurity are correlated, the system has a rich phase diagram that includes a metal-insulator transition at some intermediate values of the scattering.

How weak categorizers based upon different principles strengthen performance

Combining the results of classifiers has shown much promise in machine learning generally. However, published work on combining text categorizers suggests that, for this particular application, improvements in performance are hard to attain. Explorative research using a simple voting system is presented and discussed in the light of a probabilistic model that was originally developed for safety critical software. It was found that typical categorization approaches produce predictions which are too similar for combining them to be effective since they tend to fail on the same records. Further experiments using two less orthodox categorizers are also presented which suggest that combining text categorizers can be successful, provided the essential element of ‘difference’ is considered.

A survey of methods of numerical approximation to functions

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Non-Gaussian error probability in optical soliton transmission

We find the probability distribution of the fluctuating parameters of a soliton propagating through a medium with additive noise. Our method is a modification of the instanton formalism (method of optimal fluctuation) based on a saddle-point approximation in the path integral. We first solve consistently a fundamental problem of soliton propagation within the framework of noisy nonlinear Schrödinger equation. We then consider model modifications due to in-line (filtering, amplitude and phase modulation) control. It is examined how control elements change the error probability in optical soliton transmission. Even though a weak noise is considered, we are interested here in probabilities of error-causing large fluctuations which are beyond perturbation theory. We describe in detail a new phenomenon of soliton collapse that occurs under the combined action of noise, filtering and amplitude modulation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hierarchized block wise image approximation by greedy pursuit strategies

An approach for effective implementation of greedy selection methodologies, to approximate an image partitioned into blocks, is proposed. The method is specially designed for approximating partitions on a transformed image. It evolves by selecting, at each iteration step, i) the elements for approximating each of the blocks partitioning the image and ii) the hierarchized sequence in which the blocks are approximated to reach the required global condition on sparsity. © 2013 IEEE.

Hierarchized block wise image approximation by greedy pursuit strategies

An approach for effective implementation of greedy selection methodologies, to approximate an image partitioned into blocks, is proposed. The method is specially designed for approximating partitions on a transformed image. It evolves by selecting, at each iteration step, i) the elements for approximating each of the blocks partitioning the image and ii) the hierarchized sequence in which the blocks are approximated to reach the required global condition on sparsity. © 2013 IEEE.

Approximation of Experimental Data by Bezier Curves

Very often the experimental data are the realization of the process, fully determined by some unknown function, being distorted by hindrances. Treatment and experimental data analysis are substantially facilitated, if these data to represent as analytical expression. The experimental data processing algorithm and the example of using this algorithm for spectrographic analysis of oncologic preparations of blood is represented in this article.

Quality of Service System Approximation in IP Networks

This paper is sponsored by the Ministry of Education and Research of the Republic of Bulgaria in the framework of project No 105 “Multimedia Packet Switching Networks Planning with Quality of Service and Traffic Management”.