Pronoun ambiguity resolution in Greek: evidence from monolingual adults and children

A large body of psycholinguistic research has revealed that during sentence interpretation adults coordinate multiple sources of information. Particularly, they draw both on linguistic properties of the message and on information from the context to constrain their interpretations. Relatively little however is known about how this integrative processor develops through language acquisition and about how children process language. In this study, two on-line picture verification tasks were used to examine how 1st, 2nd and 4th/5th grade monolingual Greek children resolve pronoun ambiguities during sentence interpretation and how their performance compares to that of adults on the same tasks. Specifically, we manipulated the type of subject pronoun, i.e. null or overt, and examined how this affected participants’ preferences for competing antecedents, i.e. in the subject or object position. The results revealed both similarities and differences in how adults and the various child groups comprehended ambiguous pronominal forms. Particularly, although adults and children alike showed sensitivity to the distribution of overt and null subject pronouns, this did not always lead to convergent interpretation preferences.

Allocating community-level payments for ecosystem services initial experiences from a REDD pilot in Tanzania

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) typically reward landowners for managing their land to provide ecosystem services that would not otherwise be provided. REDD—Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation—is a form of PES aimed at decreasing carbon emissions from forest conversion and extraction in lower-income countries. A key challenge for REDD occurs when it is implemented at the community rather than the individual landowner level. Whilst achieving this community-level reduction relies on individuals changing their interaction with the forest, incentives are not aligned explicitly at the individual level. Rather, payments are made to the community as a single entity in exchange for verified reduced forest loss, as per a PES scheme. In this paper, we explore how community level REDD has been implemented in one multiple-village pilot in Tanzania. Our findings suggest that considerable attention has been paid to monitoring, reporting, verification, and equity. Though no explicit mechanism ensures individual compliance with the group PES, the development of village level institutions, “social fencing,” and a shared future through equal REDD payments factor into community decisions that influence the level of community compliance that the program will eventually achieve. However, few villages allocate funds for explicit enforcement efforts to protect the forest from illegal activities undertaken by outsiders.

Generic construction of monitors for floating point unit designs

This paper proposes a set of well defined steps to design functional verification monitors intended to verify Floating Point Units (FPU) described in HDL. The first step consists on defining the input and output domain coverage. Next, the corner cases are defined. Finally, an already verified reference model is used in order to test the correctness of the Device Under Verification (DUV). As a case study a monitor for an IEEE754-2008 compliant design is implemented. This monitor is built to be easily instantiated into verification frameworks such as OVM. Two different designs were verified reaching complete input coverage and successful compliant results.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.

Distribution analysis of the putative cancer marker S100A4 across invasive squamous cell carcinoma penile tissue

MS-based proteomic methods were utilised for the first time in the discovery of novel penile cancer biomarkers. MALDI MS imaging was used to obtain the in situ biomolecular MS profile of squamous cell carcinoma of the penis which was then compared to benign epithelial MS profiles. Spectra from cancerous and benign tissue areas were examined to identify MS peaks that best distinguished normal epithelial cells from invasive squamous epithelial cells, providing crucial evidence to suggest S100A4 to be differentially expressed. Verification by immunohistochemistry resulted in positive staining for S100A4 in a sub-population of invasive but not benign epithelial cells.

Improvement and sensitivity analysis of thermal thin-ice thickness retrievals

Considering the sea ice decline in the Arctic during the last decades, polynyas are of high research interest since these features are core areas of new ice formation. The determination of ice formation requires accurate retrieval of polynya area and thin-ice thickness (TIT) distribution within the polynya.We use an established energy balance model to derive TITs with MODIS ice surface temperatures (Ts) and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis II in the Laptev Sea for two winter seasons. Improvements of the algorithm mainly concern the implementation of an iterative approach to calculate the atmospheric flux components taking the atmospheric stratification into account. Furthermore, a sensitivity study is performed to analyze the errors of the ice thickness. The results are the following: 1) 2-m air temperatures (Ta) and Ts have the highest impact on the retrieved ice thickness; 2) an overestimation of Ta yields smaller ice thickness errors as an underestimation of Ta; 3) NCEP Ta shows often a warm bias; and 4) the mean absolute error for ice thicknesses up to 20 cm is ±4.7 cm. Based on these results, we conclude that, despite the shortcomings of the NCEP data (coarse spatial resolution and no polynyas), this data set is appropriate in combination with MODIS Ts for the retrieval of TITs up to 20 cm in the Laptev Sea region. The TIT algorithm can be applied to other polynya regions and to past and future time periods. Our TIT product is a valuable data set for verification of other model and remote sensing ice thickness data.

Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Ratios of UV, PAR and NIR components to global solar radiation measured at Botucatu site in Brazil

The relationships between the four radiant fluxes are analyzed based on a 4 year data archive of hourly and daily global ultraviolet (I(UV)), photosynthetically active-PAR (I(PAR)), near infrared (I(NIR)) and broadband global solar radiation (I(G)) collected at Botucatu, Brazil. These data are used to establish both the fractions of spectral components to global solar radiation and the proposed linear regression models. Verification results indicated that the proposed regression models predict accurately the spectral radiant fluxes at least for the Brazilian environment. Finally, results obtained in this analysis agreed well with most published results in the literature. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The timing of Neotropical speciation dynamics: A reconstruction of Myiopagis flycatcher diversification using phylogenetic and paleogeographic data

Neotropical forests have brought forth a large proportion of the world`s terrestrial biodiversity, but the underlying evolutionary mechanisms and their timing require further elucidation. Despite insights gained from phylogenetic studies, uncertainties about molecular clock rates have hindered efforts to determine the timing of diversification processes. Moreover, most molecular research has been detached from the extensive body of data on Neotropical geology and paleogeography. We here examine phylogenetic relationships and the timing of speciation events in a Neotropical flycatcher genus (Myiopagis) by using calibrations from modern geologic data in conjunction with a number of recently developed DNA sequence dating algorithms and by comparing these estimates with those based on a range of previously proposed molecular clock rates. We present a well-supported hypothesis of systematic relationships within the genus. Our age estimates of Myiopagis speciation events based on paleogeographic data are in close agreement with nodal ages derived from a ""traditional"" avian mitochondrial 2%/My clock, while contradicting other clock rates. Our comparative approach corroborates the consistency of the traditional avian mitochondrial clock rate of 2%/My for tyrant-flycatchers. Nevertheless, our results argue against the indiscriminate use of molecular clock rates in evolutionary research and advocate the verification of the appropriateness of the traditional clock rate by means of independent calibrations in individual studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Verifiable Visualization for Isosurface Extraction

Visual representations of isosurfaces are ubiquitous in the scientific and engineering literature. In this paper, we present techniques to assess the behavior of isosurface extraction codes. Where applicable, these techniques allow us to distinguish whether anomalies in isosurface features can be attributed to the underlying physical process or to artifacts from the extraction process. Such scientific scrutiny is at the heart of verifiable visualization - subjecting visualization algorithms to the same verification process that is used in other components of the scientific pipeline. More concretely, we derive formulas for the expected order of accuracy (or convergence rate) of several isosurface features, and compare them to experimentally observed results in the selected codes. This technique is practical: in two cases, it exposed actual problems in implementations. We provide the reader with the range of responses they can expect to encounter with isosurface techniques, both under ""normal operating conditions"" and also under adverse conditions. Armed with this information - the results of the verification process - practitioners can judiciously select the isosurface extraction technique appropriate for their problem of interest, and have confidence in its behavior.

Probing the functionalization of gold surfaces and protein adsorption by PM-IRRAS

The control of morphology and coating of metal surfaces is essential for a number of organic electronic devices including photovoltaic cells and sensors. In this study, we monitor the functionalization of gold surfaces with 11-mercaptoundecanoic acid (MUA, HS(CH(2))(10)CO(2)H) and cysteamine, aiming at passivating the surfaces for application in surface plasmon resonance (SPR) biosensors. Using polarization-modulated infrared reflection-absorption spectroscopy (PM-IRRAS), cyclic voltammetry, atomic force microscopy and quartz crystal microbalance, we observed a time-dependent organization process of the adsorbed MUA monolayer with alkyl chains perpendicular to the gold surface. Such optimized condition for surface passivation was obtained with a systematic search for experimental parameters leading to the lowest electrochemical signal of the functionalized gold electrode. The ability to build supramolecular architectures was also confirmed by detecting with PM-IRRAS the adsorption of streptavidin on the MUA-functionalized gold. As the approaches used for surface functionalization and its verification with PM-IRRAS are generic, one may now envisage monitoring the fabrication of tailored electrodes for a variety of applications.

Formalization of an architectural model for exception handling coordination based on CA action concepts

Architectures based on Coordinated Atomic action (CA action) concepts have been used to build concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This conceptual model combines concurrent exception handling with action nesting to provide a general mechanism for both enclosing interactions among system components and coordinating forward error recovery measures. This article presents an architectural model to guide the formal specification of concurrent fault-tolerant systems. This architecture provides built-in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSPs) and predefined channels to coordinate exception handling of the user-defined components. Hence some safety properties concerning action scoping and concurrent exception handling can be proved by using the FDR (Failure Divergence Refinement) verification tool. As a result, a formal and general architecture supporting software fault tolerance is ready to be used and proved as users define components with normal and exceptional behaviors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.