A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.

Genetic structure of a linear population of Beta vulgaris ssp maritima (sea beet) revealed by isozyme and RFLP analysis

Knowledge of the genetic structure of plant populations is necessary for the understanding of the dynamics of major ecological processes. It also has applications in conservation biology and risk assessment for genetically modified crops. This paper reports the genetic structure of a linear population of sea beet, Beta vulgaris ssp. maritima (the wild relative of sugar beet), on Furzey Island, Poole Harbour. The relative spatial positions of the plants were accurately mapped and the plants were scored for variation at isozyme and RFLP loci. Structure was analysed by repeated subdivision of the population to find the average size of a randomly mating group. Estimates of F-ST between randomly mating units were then made, and gave patterns consistent with the structure of the population being determined largely by founder effects. The implications of these results for the monitoring of transgene spread in wild sea beet populations are discussed.

Impact of social structure variation on population genetics, social conflicts and life histories in ants

Summary The evolution of social structures and breeding systems in animals is a complex process that combines ecological, genetical and social factors. This thesis sheds light on important changes in population genetics, life-history and social behavior that are associated with variation in social structure in ants. The socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi was chosen as the model organism because single- and multiple-queen colonies occur in close proximity within a single large population. The shift from single- to multiple-queen colonies is generally associated with profound changes in dispersal behavior and mode of colony founding. In chapter 1, we examine the genetic consequences of variation in social structure at both the colony and population levels. A detailed microsatellite analysis reveals that both colony types have similar mating systems, with few or no queen turnover. Furthermore, the complete lack of genetic differentiation observed between single- and multiple-queen colonies provides no support to the hypothesis that change in queen number leads to restricted gene flow between social forms. Besides changes in the genetic composition of the colony, the variation in the number of queens per colony is associated with changes in a network of behavioral and life-history traits that have been described as forming a "polygyny syndrome". In chapter 2, we demonstrate that multiple-queen colonies profoundly differ from single-queen ones in terms of size, nest density and lifespan of colonies, in weight of queens produced, as well as in allocation to reproductive individuals relative to workers. These multifaceted changes in life-history traits can provide various fitness benefits to members of multiple-queen colonies. Increasing the number of queens in a colony usually results in a decreased level of aggression towards non-nestmates. The phenotype matching hypothesis predicts that, compared to single-queen colonies, multiple-queen colonies have more diverse genetically-derived cues used for recognition, resulting in a lower ability to discriminate non-nestmates. In sharp contrast to this hypothesis, we show in chapter 3 that single- and multiple-queen colonies exhibit on average similar levels of aggression. Moreover, stronger aggression is recorded between colonies of different social structure than between colonies of the same social structure. Several hypotheses propose that the evolution of multiple-queen colonies is at least partly due to benefits resulting from an increase in colony genetic diversity. The task-efficiency hypothesis holds that genetic variation improves task performance due to a more complete or more sensitive expression of the genetically-based division of labor. In .chapter 4, we evaluate if higher colony genetic diversity increases worker size polymorphism and thus may improve division of labor. We show that despite the fact that worker size has a heritable component, higher levels of genetic diversity do not result in more polymorphic workers. The smaller size and lower polymorphism levels of workers of multiple-queen colonies compared to single-queen ones further indicate that an increase in colony genetic diversity does not increase worker size polymorphism but might improve colony homeostasis. In chapter 5, we provide clear evidence for an ongoing conflict between queens and workers on sex allocation, as predicted by kin selection theory. Our data show that queens of F. selysi strongly influence colony sex allocation by biasing the sex ratio of their eggs. However, there is also evidence that workers eliminated some male brood, resulting in a population sex-investment ratio that is between the queens' and workers' equilibria. Résumé L'évolution des structures sociales et systèmes d'accouplement chez les animaux est un processus complexe combinant à la fois des facteurs écologiques, génétiques et sociaux. Cette thèse met en lumière des changements importants dans la génétique des populations, les traits d'histoire de vie et les comportements sociaux qui sont associés à des variations de structure sociale chez les fourmis. Durant ce travail, nous avons étudié une population de Formica selysi composée à la fois de colonies à une reine et de colonies à plusieurs reines. La transition de colonie à une reine à colonie à plusieurs reines est généralement associée à des changements profonds dans le comportement de dispersion ainsi que le mode de fondation des sociétés. Dans le chapitre 1, nous examinons les conséquences génétiques de la variation de structure sociale tant au niveau de la colonie qu'au niveau de la population. Une analyse détaillée à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites nous révèle que les deux types de colonies ont des systèmes d'accouplements similaires avec peu ou pas de renouvellement de reines. L'absence totale de différenciation génétique entre les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines n'apporte aucun support à l'hypothèse selon laquelle un changement dans le nombre de reines conduit à un flux de gènes restreint entre les deux formes sociales. A côté de changements dans la composition génétique de la colonie, la variation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est associée à une multitude de changements comportementaux et de traits d'histoire de vie qui ont été décrits comme formant un "syndrome polygyne". Dans le chapitre 2, nous démontrons que les colonies à plusieurs reines diffèrent profondément des colonies à une reine en terme de taille, densité de nids, longévité des colonies, poids des nouvelles reines produites ainsi que dans l'allocation entre les individus reproducteurs et les ouvrières. Ces changements multiples dans les traits d'histoire de vie peuvent apporter des bénéfices variés en terme de fitness aux colonies à plusieurs reines. L'augmentation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est généralement associée à une baisse du degré d'agressivité envers les fourmis étrangères au nid. L'hypothèse "phénotype matching" prédit que les colonies à plusieurs reines ont une plus grande diversité dans les facteurs d'origine génétique utilisés pour la reconnaissance, résultant en une capacité diminuée à discriminer une fourmi étrangère au nid. Contrairement à cette hypothèse, nous montrons dans le chapitre 3 que les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines ont des niveaux d'agressivité similaires. De plus, une agressivité accrue est observée entre colonies de structures sociales différentes comparée à des colonies de même structure sociale. Plusieurs hypothèses ont proposé que l'évolution de colonies ä plusieurs reines soit en partie due aux bénéfices résultant d'une augmentation de la diversité génétique dans la colonie. L'hypothèse "task efficiency" prédit que la diversité génétique améliore l'efficacité à effectuer certaines tâches grâce à une expression plus complète et plus souple d'une division du travail génétiquement déterminée. Nous évaluons dans le chapitre 4 si un accroissement de la diversité génétique augmente le polymorphisme de taille des ouvrières, d'où peut ainsi découler une meilleure division du travail. Nous montrons qu'en dépit du fait que la taille des ouvrières soit un caractère héritable, une forte diversité génétique ne se traduit pas par un plus fort polymorphisme chez les ouvrières. Les ouvrières de colonies à plusieurs reines sont plus petites et moins polymorphes que celles des colonies à une seule reine. Dans le chapitre 5, nous démontrons l'existence d'un conflit ouvert entre reines et ouvrières à propos de l'allocation dans les sexes, comme le prédit la théorie de la sélection de parentèle. Nos données révèlent que les reines de F. selysi influencent fortement l'allocation dans les sexes en biaisant la sexe ratio des oeufs. Cependant, certains indices indiquent que les ouvrières éliminent une partie du couvain mâle, ce qui a pour effet d'avoir un investissement dans les sexes au niveau de la population intermédiaire entre les intérêts des reines et des ouvrières.

Metabolic equivalent: one size does not fit all.

The metabolic equivalent (MET) is a widely used physiological concept that represents a simple procedure for expressing energy cost of physical activities as multiples of resting metabolic rate (RMR). The value equating 1 MET (3.5 ml O2 x kg(-1) x min(-1) or 1 kcal x kg(-1) x h(-1)) was first derived from the resting O2 consumption (VO2) of one person, a 70-kg, 40-yr-old man. Given the extensive use of MET levels to quantify physical activity level or work output, we investigated the adequacy of this scientific convention. Subjects consisted of 642 women and 127 men, 18-74 yr of age, 35-186 kg in weight, who were weight stable and healthy, albeit obese in some cases. RMR was measured by indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system, and the energy cost of walking on a treadmill at 5.6 km/h was measured in a subsample of 49 men and 49 women (26-45 kg/m2; 29-47 yr). Average VO2 and energy cost corresponding with rest (2.6 +/- 0.4 ml O2 x kg(-1) x min(-1) and 0.84 +/- 0.16 kcal x kg(-1) x h(-1), respectively) were significantly lower than the commonly accepted 1-MET values of 3.5 ml O2 x kg(-1) x min(-1) and 1 kcal x kg(-1) x h(-1), respectively. Body composition (fat mass and fat-free mass) accounted for 62% of the variance in resting VO2 compared with age, which accounted for only 14%. For a large heterogeneous sample, the 1-MET value of 3.5 ml O2 x kg(-1) x min(-1) overestimates the actual resting VO2 value on average by 35%, and the 1-MET of 1 kcal/h overestimates resting energy expenditure by 20%. Using measured or predicted RMR (ml O2 x kg(-1) x min(-1) or kcal x kg(-1) x h(-1)) as a correction factor can appropriately adjust for individual differences when estimating the energy cost of moderate intensity walking (5.6 km/h).

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Size-dependent predation by Dugesia lugubris (Turbellaria) on Physa acuta (Gastropoda): experiments and model

1. We investigated experimentally predation by the flatworm Dugesia lugubris on the snail Physa acuta in relation to predator body length and to prey morphology [shell length (SL) and aperture width (AW)]. 2. SL and AW correlate strongly in the field, but display significant and independent variance among populations. In the laboratory, predation by Dugesia resulted in large and significant selection differentials on both SL and AW. Analysis of partial effects suggests that selection on AW was indirect, and mediated through its strong correlation with SL. 3. The probability P(ij) for a snail of size category i (SL) to be preyed upon by a flatworm of size category j was fitted with a Poisson-probability distribution, the mean of which increased linearly with predator size (i). Despite the low number of parameters, the fit was excellent (r2 = 0.96). We offer brief biological interpretations of this relationship with reference to optimal foraging theory. 4. The largest size class of Dugesia (>2 cm) did not prey on snails larger than 7 mm shell length. This size threshold might offer Physa a refuge against flatworm predation and thereby allow coexistence in the field. 5. Our results are further discussed with respect to previous field and laboratory observations on P acuta life-history patterns, in particular its phenotypic variance in adult body size.

Ten-year trends in overweight and obesity in the adult Portuguese population, 1995 to 2005.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the trends in body mass index (BMI) and obesity in the overall Portuguese population, namely if these trends are similar according to educational level. In this study, we assessed the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Portuguese population, overall and by educational level. METHODS: Cross-sectional national health interview surveys conducted in 1995-6 (n=38,504), 1998-9 (n=38,688) and 2005-6 (n=25,348). Data were derived from the population and housing census of 1991 and two geographically-based strata were defined. The sampling unit was the house, and all subjects living in the sampling unit were surveyed. Height and weight were self-reported; the effects of gender, age group and educational level were also assessed by self-reported structured questionnaires. Bivariate comparisons were performed using Chi-square or analysis of variance (ANOVA). Trends in BMI levels were assessed by linear regression analysis, while trends in the prevalence of obesity were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean (+/-standard deviation) BMI increased from 25.2+/-4.0 in 1995-6 to 25.7+/-4.5 kg/m2 in 2005-6. Prevalence of overweight remained stable (36.1% in 1995-6 and 36.4% in 2005) while prevalence of obesity increased (11.5% in 1995-6 and 15.1% in 2005-6). Similar findings were observed according to age group. Mean age-adjusted BMI increase (expressed in kg/m2/year and 95% confidence interval) was 0.073 (0.062, 0.084), 0.016 (0.000, 0.031) and 0.073 (0.049, 0.098) in men with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively; the corresponding values in women were 0.085 (0.073, 0.097), 0.052 (0.035, 0.069) and 0.062 (0.038, 0.084). Relative to 1995-6, obesity rates increased by 48%, 41% and 59% in men and by 40%, 75% and 177% in women with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively. The corresponding values for overweight were 6%, 1% and 23% in men and 5%, 7% and 65% in women. CONCLUSION: Between 1995 and 2005, obesity increased while overweight remained stable in the adult Portuguese population. Although higher rates were found among lesser educated subjects, the strong increase in BMI and obesity levels in highly educated subjects is of concern.

Decay of linkage disequilibrium within genes across HGDP-CEPH human samples: most population isolates do not show increased LD

Background: It is well known that the pattern of linkage disequilibrium varies between human populations, with remarkable geographical stratification. Indirect association studies routinely exploit linkage disequilibrium around genes, particularly in isolated populations where it is assumed to be higher. Here, we explore both the amount and the decay of linkage disequilibrium with physical distance along 211 gene regions, most of them related to complex diseases, across 39 HGDP-CEPH population samples, focusing particularly on the populations defined as isolates. Within each gene region and population we use r2 between all possible single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) pairs as a measure of linkage disequilibrium and focus on the proportion of SNP pairs with r2 greater than 0.8.Results: Although the average r2 was found to be significantly different both between and within continental regions, a much higher proportion of r2 variance could be attributed to differences between continental regions (2.8% vs. 0.5%, respectively). Similarly, while the proportion of SNP pairs with r2 > 0.8 was significantly different across continents for all distance classes, it was generally much more homogenous within continents, except in the case of Africa and the Americas. The only isolated populations with consistently higher LD in all distance classes with respect to their continent are the Kalash (Central South Asia) and the Surui (America). Moreover, isolated populations showed only slightly higher proportions of SNP pairs with r2 > 0.8 per gene region than non-isolated populations in the same continent. Thus, the number of SNPs in isolated populations that need to be genotyped may be only slightly less than in non-isolates. Conclusion: The "isolated population" label by itself does not guarantee a greater genotyping efficiency in association studies, and properties other than increased linkage disequilibrium may make these populations interesting in genetic epidemiology.

Réduction de la consommation de sel: opportunité, impact et stratégies. [Population reduction of salt consumption: opportunities, impact and strategies].

A national survey showed that Swiss people eat high quantity of salt (9.1 g per day on average). The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) has launched a strategy to reduce salt intake in the population in order to decrease cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, mainly via blood pressure reduction. The most effective public health measures are to reduce the salt content of processed food rich in salt because they do not need to change consumers' eating behaviours. The FOPH has chosen to collaborate with the food industry on a voluntary basis. Regular population-based surveys will be needed to monitor the impact of current measures on salt consumption, hypertension prevalence as well as cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the years to come.

High genetic variability and low local diversity in a population of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are ecologically important root symbionts of most terrestrial plants. Ecological studies of AMF have concentrated on differences between species; largely assuming little variability within AMF species. Although AMF are clonal, they have evolved to contain a surprisingly high within-species genetic variability, and genetically different nuclei can coexist within individual spores. These traits could potentially lead to within-population genetic variation, causing differences in physiology and symbiotic function in AMF populations, a consequence that has been largely neglected. We found highly significant genetic and phenotypic variation among isolates of a population of Glomus intraradices but relatively low total observed genetic diversity. Because we maintained the isolated population in a constant environment, phenotypic variation can be considered as variation in quantitative genetic traits. In view of the large genetic differences among isolates by randomly sampling two individual spores, <50% of the total observed population genetic diversity is represented. Adding an isolate from a distant population did not increase total observed genetic diversity. Genetic variation exceeded variation in quantitative genetic traits, indicating that selection acted on the population to retain similar traits, which might be because of the multigenomic nature of AMF, where considerable genetic redundancy could buffer the effects of changes in the genetic content of phenotypic traits. These results have direct implications for ecological research and for studying AMF genes, improving commercial AMF inoculum, and understanding evolutionary mechanisms in multigenomic organisms.

Communication, Coordination, and Efficiency in Evolutionary One-population Models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuring efficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl.

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.

Population-level changes to promote cardiovascular health.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) cause 1.8 million premature (<75 years) death annually in Europe. The majority of these deaths are preventable with the most efficient and cost-effective approach being on the population level. The aim of this position paper is to assist authorities in selecting the most adequate management strategies to prevent CVD. DESIGN AND METHODS: Experts reviewed and summarized the published evidence on the major modifiable CVD risk factors: food, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol. Population-based preventive strategies focus on fiscal measures (e.g. taxation), national and regional policies (e.g. smoke-free legislation), and environmental changes (e.g. availability of alcohol). RESULTS: Food is a complex area, but several strategies can be effective in increasing fruit and vegetables and lowering intake of salt, saturated fat, trans-fats, and free sugars. Tobacco and alcohol can be regulated mainly by fiscal measures and national policies, but local availability also plays a role. Changes in national policies and the built environment will integrate physical activity into daily life. CONCLUSION: Societal changes and commercial influences have led to the present unhealthy environment, in which default option in life style increases CVD risk. A challenge for both central and local authorities is, therefore, to ensure healthier defaults. This position paper summarizes the evidence and recommends a number of structural strategies at international, national, and regional levels that in combination can substantially reduce CVD.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.