Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Phase Structure of Radar Stratigraphic Horizons Within Antarctic Firn

We have recorded reflection profiles of firn through large areas of West Antarctica and part of the East Antarctic plateau using 400 MHz short-pulse radar. The locations show accumulation rates that vary from well above to well below the vertical radar resolution. Most reflection horizons have extensive lateral continuity, and are composed of distinctive wavelets with a consistent phase polarity sequence within their successive half-cycles. We modeled these waveforms, and conclude that they arise from thin, double layers of ice over hoar, which is consistent with the standard model of firn stratification. In addition, we conclude that ice/hoar layers are extensive throughout West Antarctica and also present (although more sparsely) beneath the Antarctic Plateau.

An Ice-Core Proxy for Antarctic Circumpolar Zonal Wind Intensity

Using US National Centers for Environmental Prediction/US National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data, we investigate the relationships between crustal ion (nssCa(2+)) concentrations from three West Antarctic ice cores, namely, Siple Dome (SD), ITASE00-1 (IT001) and ITASE01-5 (IT015), and primary components of the climate system, namely, air pressure/geopotential height, zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind strength. Linear correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations and both air-pressure and wind fields for the period of overlap between records indicate that the SD nssCa(2+) variation is positively correlated with spring circumpolar zonal wind, while IT001 nssCa(2+) has a positive correlation with circumpolar zonal wind throughout the year (r > 0.3, p < 0.01). Intensified Southern Westerlies circulation is conducive to transport of more crustal aerosols to both sites. Further correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations from SD and IT001 and atmospheric circulation suggest that the high inland plateau (represented by core IT001) is largely influenced by transport from the upper troposphere. IT015 nssCa(2+) is negatively correlated with westerly wind in October and November, suggesting that stronger westerly circulation may weaken the transport of crustal species to IT015. Correlations of nssCa(2+) from the three ice cores with the Antarctic Oscillation index are consistent with results developed from the wind-field investigation. In addition, calibration between nssCa(2+) concentration and the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that crustal species transport to IT001 is enhanced during strong ENSO events.

High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries has led to an increase in air pollution, along a similar trajectory to that previously experienced by the developed nations. In China, particulate pollution is a serious environmental problem that is influencing air quality, regional and global climates, and human health. In response to the extremely severe and persistent haze pollution experienced by about 800 million people during the first quarter of 2013 (refs 4, 5), the Chinese State Council announced its aim to reduce concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5micrometres) by up to 25 per cent relative to 2012 levels by 2017 (ref. 6). Such efforts however require elucidation of the factors governing the abundance and composition of PM2.5, which remain poorly constrained in China. Here we combine a comprehensive set of novel and state-of-the-art offline analytical approaches and statistical techniques to investigate the chemical nature and sources of particulate matter at urban locations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an during January 2013. We find that the severe haze pollution event was driven to a large extent by secondary aerosol formation, which contributed 30-77 per cent and 44-71 per cent (average for all four cities) of PM2.5 and of organic aerosol, respectively. On average, the contribution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) are found to be of similar importance (SOA/SIA ratios range from 0.6 to 1.4). Our results suggest that, in addition to mitigating primary particulate emissions, reducing the emissions of secondary aerosol precursors from, for example, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is likely to be important for controlling China's PM2.5 levels and for reducing the environmental, economic and health impacts resulting from particulate pollution.

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

Yields of Corn, Soybeans, and Alfalfa in Western Iowa: 1990 to 2011

The ISU Western Research Farm, Castana, Iowa is one of the oldest in Iowa dating to 1946. It also has a unique location in the loess hills of western Iowa. The research farm was set up to study the deep loess soils, particularly crop production and soil conservation methods. Although the work at the research farm has transitioned away from traditional plot work, yields of major crops grown at the farm, and climate data are collected each year. Crop yields are a reflection of current technologies and weather. In western Iowa, rainfall is especially critical and is often the limiting factor.

Neogene planktonic foraminifera of ODP Site 130-806

The Neogene biostratigraphy presented here is based on the study of 230 samples through 737 m of pelagic sediment in Hole 806B. Sediment accumulation is interrupted only once in the uppermost lower Miocene (Zone N6), apparently coincident with a widespread deep-sea hiatus. Preservation of planktonic foraminifers through the section ranges from good to moderately poor. One hundred and ten species of planktonic foraminifers were identified; taxonomic notes on most species are included. All of the standard low-latitude Neogene foraminiferal zones are delineated, with the exceptions of Zones N8 and N9 because of a high first occurrence of Orbulina, and Zones N18 and N19 because of a high first occurrence of Sphaeroidinella dehiscens. Good agreement exists between the published account of the variation in planktonic foraminiferal species richness and the rates of diversification and turnover, and measurements of these evolutionary indexes in the record of Hole 806B. The global pattern of change in tropical/transitional species richness is paralleled in Hole 806B, with departures caused by either ecological conditions peculiar to the western equatorial Pacific or by inexactness in the estimation of million-year intervals in Hole 806B. Temporal changes in the relative abundance of taxa in the sediment assemblages, considered in light of their depth habitats, reveal a detailed picture of historical change in the structure of the upper water column over the Ontong Java Plateau. The dominance of surface dwellers (Paragloborotalia kugleri, P. mayeri, Dentoglobigerina altispira, Globigerinita glutinata, and Globigerinoides spp.) throughout the lower and middle Miocene is replaced by a more equitable distribution of surface (D. altispira and Globigerinoides spp.), intermediate (Globorotalia menardii plexus), and deep (Streptochilus spp.) dwellers in the late Miocene, following the closing of the Indo-Pacific Seaway and the initiation of large-scale glaciation in the Antarctic. The shoaling of the thermocline along the equator engendered by these climatic and tectonic events persisted through the Pliocene, when initial increases in the abundance of a new set of shallow, intermediate, and deep dwelling species of planktonic foraminifers coincide with the closing of the Panamanian Seaway.

Mineralogical and geochemical data from five lake sediment cores of Lake Donggi Cona

Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30 X 8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatiotemporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system. The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grainsize fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early tomid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.

Occurrence of dinoflagellate cysts in ODP Hole 119-738C (Appendix)

Forty-one samples from the lower section (between approximately 370 and 495.5 mbsf) drilled at ODP Site 738 (southern Kerguelen Plateau) were analyzed for their palynomorph content. The majority proved to be palynologically barren. Twenty-one species and subspecies of dinoflagellate cysts were recorded, however, from the eight samples that proved productive. The irregular distribution of the cysts makes accurate age determinations difficult, particularly for the lower part of the succession. However, species recovered from Cores 119-738C-21R to 119-738C-23R indicate a latest Maastrichtian age.

(Table S1) Cation compositions of titanomaghemite in DSDP Hole 89-462A basalts

Cretaceous lava flows overlie Jurassic to Early Cretaceous oceanic crust in the Nauru Basin of the western equatorial Pacific, but their exact age and origin is controversial. In one model, they are generically related to volcanism forming the Ontong Java Plateau. However, paleomagnetic data from basalts recovered by ocean drilling in the Nauru Basin have been interpreted as recording numerous geomagnetic reversals, suggesting the Nauru Basin basalts are older than the Early Aptian flows on the Ontong Java Plateau, and the correlative volcanism seen in the western equatorial and southwestern Pacific Ocean basin. Here, we examine the magnetic fidelity of the Nauru Basin basalts through rock magnetic and paleomagnetic approaches. We find the magnetic carriers in the lavas are unlike most basaltic units recovered by oceanic drilling in that they are magnetically soft. This quality makes the rocks especially prone to the acquisition of secondary magnetic components induced during drilling. We demonstrate that the reversed polarity intervals are illusory, and instead record subtle changes in magnetic hardness that result in partial and complete overprinting by the magnetic field associated with the drill string (e.g., the core barrel, drill pipe and bit). The recognition of these magnetic overprints, the identification of only normal polarity in the Nauru Basin basalts, and a critical consideration of the available radiometric and biostratigraphic age data lead us to conclude that coeval formation of the Nauru Basin basalts and Ontong Java Plateau in Aptian times remains a viable hypothesis.

Isotope ratios and trace element concentrations of basalts from DSDP Leg 15 sites (Appendix 1)

Formation of the Cretaceous Caribbean plateau, including the komatiites of Gorgona, has been linked to the currently active Galápagos hotspot. We use Hf-Nd isotopes and trace element data to characterise both the Caribbean plateau and the Galápagos hotspot, and to investigate the relationship between them. Four geochemical components are identified in the Galápagos mantle plume: two 'enriched' components with epsilon-Hf and epsilon-Nd similar to enriched components observed in other mantle plumes, one moderately enriched component with high Nb/Y, and a fourth component which most likely represents depleted MORB source mantle. The Caribbean plateau basalt data form a linear array in Hf-Nd isotope space, consistent with mixing between two mantle components. Combined Hf-Nd-Pb-Sr-He isotope and trace element data from this study and the literature suggest that the more enriched Caribbean end member corresponds to one or both of the enriched components identified on Galápagos. Likewise, the depleted end member of the array is geochemically indistinguishable from MORB and corresponds to the depleted component of the Galápagos system. Enriched basalts from Gorgona partially overlap with the Caribbean plateau array in epsilon-Hf vs. epsilon-Nd, whereas depleted basalts, picrites and komatiites from Gorgona have a high epsilon-Hf for a given epsilon-Nd, defining a high-epsilon-Hf depleted end member that is not observed elsewhere within the Caribbean plateau sequences. This component is similar, however, in terms of Hf-Nd-Pb-He isotopes and trace elements to the depleted plume component recognised in basalts from Iceland and along the Reykjanes Ridge. We suggest that the Caribbean plateau represents the initial outpourings of the ancestral Galápagos plume. Absence of a moderately enriched, high Nb/Y component in the older Caribbean plateau (but found today on the island of Floreana) is either due to changing source compositions of the plume over its 90 Ma history, or is an artifact of limited sampling. The high-epsilon-Hf depleted component sampled by the Gorgona komatiites and depleted basalts is unique to Gorgona and is not found in the Caribbean plateau. This may be an indication of the scale of heterogeneity of the Caribbean plateau system; alternatively Gorgona may represent a separate oceanic plateau derived from a completely different Pacific plume, such as the Sala y Gomez.

Sedimentology of ODP Leg 119 samples

Cretaceous to Quaternary sediments recovered at Leg 119 Sites 738 and 744 on the southern tip of the Kerguelen Plateau were studied in order to determine the depositional environment and the paleoceanography of the southern Indian Ocean and especially the long-term glacial history of East Antarctica. Emphasis is given to bulk-sediment composition, grain-size data, and clay mineralogy. The sediment sequence at the two sites is generally of a highly pelagic character, with nannofossil oozes, chalks, and limestones dominant from the Turanian to upper Miocene and diatom oozes dominant within the uppermost Miocene to Holocene interval. The first indication of glaciation at sea level is the occurrence of isolated gravel and terrigenous sand grains, which indicate ice rafting in the middle Eocene interval of 45.0-42.3 Ma. A major intensification of glaciation, probably the onset of continental East Antarctic glaciation, is recorded in sediments of early Oligocene age (36.0 Ma). All major sediment parameters document this event. The clay mineralogy changes from smectite-dominated assemblages, typical of moderately warm and humid climatic conditions in which chemical weathering processes are prevalent, to illite- and chlorite-dominated assemblages, indicative of cooler climates and physical weathering. Ice-rafted debris of both gravel and sand size occurs in large quantities in that interval and coincides with a change in the mode of carbonate deposition. Carbonate contents are relatively high and uniform (90%-95%) in strata younger than early Oligocene; in Oligocene to upper Miocene strata they fluctuate between 65% and 95%. Oligocene and Neogene hiatuses reflect an intensification of oceanic circulation and the increased erosional force of Circumpolar Deep Water. The long-term Cenozoic cooling trend was interrupted by a phase of early Miocene warming indicated by maximum Neogene smectite concentrations. Although ice-rafted debris is present only in minor amounts and mainly in the silt fraction of early Oligocene to late Miocene age, it shows that glaciers advanced to the East Antarctic shoreline throughout that time. Ice-rafting activity drastically increased in latest Miocene time, when carbonate deposition decreased and diatom ooze sedimentation started. This suggests a pronounced intensification of Antarctic glaciation combined with a northward migration of the Polar Front.

(Table 1) Age determination of basalts from DSDP Hole 30-289

The Pacific plate has undergone a substantial northward displacement during the late Mesozoic and the Cainozoic. Here we give additional documentation for such motion based on palaeomagnetic measurements of a sequence of sedimentary and basalt samples collected from middle Oligocene to Aptian sections of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) site 289 (Andrews, 1975; 00° 29.92'S, 158° 30.69'E) drilled on the Ontong Java Plateau.