Table 2. Lead and Ba concentrations and Pb isotopic compositions measured in Law Dome ice cores

Lead isotopic compositions and Pb and Ba concentrations have been measured in ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, covering the past 6500 years. 'Natural' background concentrations of Pb (ab. 0.4 pg/g) and Ba (ab. 1.3 pg/g) are observed until 1884 AD, after which increased Pb concentrations and lowered 206Pb/207Pb ratios indicate the influence of anthropogenic Pb. The isotopic composition of 'natural' Pb varies within the range 206Pb/207Pb=1.20-1.25 and 208Pb/207Pb=2.46-2.50, with an average rock and soil dust Pb contribution of 8-12%. A major pollution event is observed at Law Dome between 1884 and 1908 AD, elevating the Pb concentration four-fold and changing 206Pb/207Pb ratios in the ice to ab. 1.12. Based on Pb isotopic systematics and Pb emission statistics, this is attributed to Pb mined at Broken Hill and smelted at Broken Hill and Port Pirie, Australia. Anthropogenic Pb inputs are at their greatest from 1900 to 1910 and from ab. 1960 to ab. 1980. During the 20th century, Ba concentrations are consistently higher than 'natural' levels and are attributed to increased dust production, suggesting the influence of climate change and/or changes in land coverage with vegetation.

San Francisco Coastal System grain size and geochemical data for sand provenance study

Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.

Meiofauna of surface sediments in the Cretan Sea

Quantitative information on metazoan meiofaunal abundance and biomass was obtained from three continental shelf (at 40, 100 and 200 m depth) and four deep-sea stations (at 540, 700, 940 and 1540 m depth) in the Cretan Sea (South Aegean Sea, NE Mediterranean). Samples were collected on a seasonal basis (from August 1994 to September 1995) with the use of a multiple corer. Meiofaunal abundance and biomass on the continental shelf of the Cretan Sea were high, in contrast to the extremely low values reported for the bathyal sediments that showed values comparable to those reported for abyssal and hadal environments. In order to explain the spatial and seasonal changes in metazoan meiofauna these data were compared with: (1) the concentrations of 'food indicators' (such as proteins, lipids, soluble carbohydrates and CPE) (2) the bacterial biomass (3) the flux of labile organic compounds to the sea floor at a fixed station (D7, 1540 m depth). Highly significant relationships between meiofaunal parameters and CPE, protein and lipid concentrations and bacterial biomass were found. Most of the indicators of food quality and quantity (such as CPE, proteins and carbohydrates) showed a clear seasonality with highest values in February and lowest in September. Such changes were more evident on the continental shelf rather than at deeper depths. On the continental shelf, significant seasonal changes in meiofaunal density were related to changes in the input of labile organic carbon whereas meiofaunal assemblages on the deep-sea stations showed time-lagged changes in response to the food input recorded in February 95. At all deep-sea stations meiofaunal density increased with a time lag of 2 months. Indications for a time-lagged meiofaunal response to the food inputs were also provided by the increase in nauplii densities during May 95 and the increase in individual biomass of nematodes, copepods and polychaetes between February and May 1995. The lack of strong seasonal changes in deep sea meiofaunal density suggests that the supply of organic matter below 500 m is not strong enough to support a significant meiofaunal development. Below 700 m depth >92% of the total biomass in the sediment was represented by bacteria. The ratio of bacterial to meiofaunal biomass increased with increasing water depth indicating that bacteria are probably more effective than meiofauna in exploiting refractory organic compounds. These data lead us to hypothesise that the deep-sea sediments of the Cretan Sea are largely dependent upon a benthic microbial loop.

Geochemistry of ODP Hole 108-658C sediments

During the African Humid Period (AHP), much of the modern hyperarid Saharan desert was vegetated and covered with numerous lakes. In marine sediments off northwestern Africa, the AHP is represented by markedly reduced siliciclastic sediment flux between ~ 12.3 and 5.5 ka. Changes in the origin of this terrigenous sediment fraction can be constrained by sediment chemistry and radiogenic isotope tracers. At Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 658, Hole C (20°44.95'N, 18°34.85'W, 2263 mbsl), the neodymium (Nd) isotope composition of terrigenous detritus shows little variability throughout the last 25 kyr, indicating that the contributing geological terranes have not changed appreciably since the last glacial period. In contrast, there were large and abrupt changes in strontium (Sr) isotope ratios and chemical compositions associated with the AHP, during which 87Sr/86Sr ratios were markedly less radiogenic, and sediments show higher chemical indices of alteration. We show that sediment geochemical changes during the AHP cannot be attributed to changes in the source terranes, physical sorting, or intensity of chemical weathering. The low 87Sr/86Sr and high Sr concentrations of AHP-age samples also conflict with the interpretation of increased fine-grained, fluvially derived sediments. We propose that the most significant compositional changes at ODP 658C are due to the addition of an aluminosilicate component that has a highly altered major element signature but is enriched in soluble elements like Sr and magnesium (Mg) compared to aluminum (Al) and has low 87Sr/86Sr relative to local terrigenous source areas. We interpret these characteristics to reflect authigenic sediment supply from extensive North African paleolake basins that were prevalent during the AHP.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Argon, uranium, thorium and lead composition and ages of ODP Leg 180 sites

During Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 180, 11 sites were drilled in the vicinity of the Moresby Seamount to study processes associated with the transition from continental rifting to seafloor spreading in the Woodlark Basin. This paper presents thermochronologic (40Ar/39Ar, 238U/206Pb, and fission track) results from igneous rocks recovered during ODP Leg 180 that help constrain the latest Cretaceous to present-day tectonic development of the Woodlark Basin. Igneous rocks recovered (primarily from Sites 1109, 1114, 1117, and 1118) consist of predominantly diabase and metadiabase, with minor basalt and gabbro. Zircon ion microprobe analyses gave a 238U/206Pb age of 66.4 ± 1.5 Ma, interpreted to date crystallization of the diabase. 40Ar/39Ar plagioclase apparent ages vary considerably according to the degree to which the diabase was altered subsequent to crystallization. The least altered sample (from Site 1109) yielded a plagioclase isochron age of 58.9 ± 5.8 Ma, interpreted to represent cooling following intrusion. The most altered sample (from Site 1117) yielded an isochron age of 31.0 ± 0.9 Ma, interpreted to represent a maximum age for the timing of subsequent hydrothermal alteration. The diabase has not been thermally affected by Miocene-Pliocene rift-related events, supporting our inference that these rocks have remained at shallow and cool levels in the crust (i.e., upper plate) since they were partially reset as a result of middle Oligocene hydrothermal alteration. These results suggest that crustal extension in the vicinity of the Moresby Seamount, immediately west of the active seafloor spreading tip, is being accommodated by normal faulting within latest Cretaceous to early Paleocene oceanic crust. Felsic clasts provide additional evidence for middle Miocene and Pliocene magmatic events in the region. Two rhyolitic clasts (from Sites 1110 and 1111) gave zircon 238U/206Pb ages of 15.7 ± 0.4 Ma and provide evidence for Miocene volcanism in the region. 40Ar/39Ar total fusion ages on single grains of K-feldspar from these clasts yielded younger apparent ages of 12.5 ± 0.2 and 14.4 ± 0.6 Ma due to variable sericitization of K-feldspar phenocrysts. 238U/206Pb zircon, 40Ar/39Ar K-feldspar and biotite total fusion, and apatite fission track analysis of a microgranite clast (from Site 1108) provide evidence for the existence of a rapidly cooled 3.0 to 1.8 Ma granitic protolith. The clast may have been transported longitudinally from the west (e.g., from the D'Entrecasteaux Islands). Alternatively, it may have been derived from a more proximal, but presently unknown, source in the vicinity of the Moresby Seamount.

Lead isotope ratios of basalts from DSDP Leg 37 (Table 1)

Analyses of Pb from mid-ocean ridge basalts obtained from DSDP Leg 37 lie on a line of near-zero-age slope. The data seem consistent with an evolutionary model of three stages, the beginning of the second stage being at about 600 m.y. - the model age obtained for the least radiogenic Pb. The beginning of the third stage of evolution at the time of formation of the rocks apparently did not change the average Th/U ratio since measured values are consistent with the ratio deduced from Pb isotope ratios. Ratios of U/Pb are not consistent with Pb isotope ratios, however, thus ruling out a simple two-stage evolutionary model.

Computational Methods for Identifying Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy using 12-lead ECG

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a cardiovascular disease where the heart muscle is partially thickened and blood flow is - potentially fatally - obstructed. It is one of the leading causes of sudden cardiac death in young people. Electrocardiography (ECG) and Echocardiography (Echo) are the standard tests for identifying HCM and other cardiac abnormalities. The American Heart Association has recommended using a pre-participation questionnaire for young athletes instead of ECG or Echo tests due to considerations of cost and time involved in interpreting the results of these tests by an expert cardiologist. Initially we set out to develop a classifier for automated prediction of young athletes’ heart conditions based on the answers to the questionnaire. Classification results and further in-depth analysis using computational and statistical methods indicated significant shortcomings of the questionnaire in predicting cardiac abnormalities. Automated methods for analyzing ECG signals can help reduce cost and save time in the pre-participation screening process by detecting HCM and other cardiac abnormalities. Therefore, the main goal of this dissertation work is to identify HCM through computational analysis of 12-lead ECG. ECG signals recorded on one or two leads have been analyzed in the past for classifying individual heartbeats into different types of arrhythmia as annotated primarily in the MIT-BIH database. In contrast, we classify complete sequences of 12-lead ECGs to assign patients into two groups: HCM vs. non-HCM. The challenges and issues we address include missing ECG waves in one or more leads and the dimensionality of a large feature-set. We address these by proposing imputation and feature-selection methods. We develop heartbeat-classifiers by employing Random Forests and Support Vector Machines, and propose a method to classify full 12-lead ECGs based on the proportion of heartbeats classified as HCM. The results from our experiments show that the classifiers developed using our methods perform well in identifying HCM. Thus the two contributions of this thesis are the utilization of computational and statistical methods for discovering shortcomings in a current screening procedure and the development of methods to identify HCM through computational analysis of 12-lead ECG signals.

Novel Formulation and Efficient Solution Strategy for Strategic Optimization of an Industrial Chemical Supply Chain Under Demand Uncertainty

This paper is concerned with strategic optimization of a typical industrial chemical supply chain, which involves a material purchase and transportation network, several manufacturing plants with on-site material and product inventories, a product transportation network and several regional markets. In order to address large uncertainties in customer demands at the different regional markets, a novel robust scenario formulation, which has been developed by the authors recently, is tailored and applied for the strategic optimization. Case study results show that the robust scenario formulation works well for this real industrial supply chain system, and it outperforms the deterministic formulation and the classical scenario-based stochastic programming formulation by generating better expected economic performance and solutions that are guaranteed to be feasible for all uncertainty realizations. The robust scenario problem exhibits a decomposable structure that can be taken advantage of by Benders decomposition for efficient solution, so the application of Benders decomposition to the solution of the strategic optimization is also discussed. The case study results show that Benders decomposition can reduce the solution time by almost an order of magnitude when the number of scenarios in the problem is large.

Westminster Serious Games Platform (wmin-SGP) a tool for real-time authoring of roleplay simulations for learning

The use of serious games in education and their pedagogical benefit is being widely recognized. However, effective integration of serious games in education depends on addressing two big challenges: the successful incorporation of motivation and engagement that can lead to learning; and the highly specialised skills associated with customised development to meet the required pedagogical objectives. This paper presents the Westminster Serious Games Platform (wmin-SGP) an authoring tool that allows educators/domain experts without games design and development technical skills to create bespoke roleplay simulations in three dimensional scenes featuring fully embodied virtual humans capable of verbal and non-verbal interaction with users fit for specific educational objectives. The paper presents the wmin-SGP system architecture and it evaluates its effectiveness in fulfilling its purpose via the implementation of two roleplay simulations, one for Politics and one for Law. In addition, it presents the results of two types of evaluation that address how successfully the wmin-SGP combines usability principles and game core drives based on the Octalysis gamification framework that lead to motivating games experiences. The evaluation results shows that the wmin-SGP: provides an intuitive environment and tools that support users without advanced technical skills to create in real-time bespoke roleplay simulations in advanced graphical interfaces; satisfies most of the usability principles; and provides balanced simulations based on the Octalysis framework core drives. The paper concludes with a discussion of future extension of this real time authoring tool and directions for further development of the Octalysis framework to address learning.

Point-and-shoot: rapid quantitative detection methods for on-site food fraud analysis – moving out of the laboratory and into the food supply chain

Major food adulteration and contamination events occur with alarming regularity and are known to be episodic, with the question being not if but when another large-scale food safety/integrity incident will occur. Indeed, the challenges of maintaining food security are now internationally recognised. The ever increasing scale and complexity of food supply networks can lead to them becoming significantly more vulnerable to fraud and contamination, and potentially dysfunctional. This can make the task of deciding which analytical methods are more suitable to collect and analyse (bio)chemical data within complex food supply chains, at targeted points of vulnerability, that much more challenging. It is evident that those working within and associated with the food industry are seeking rapid, user-friendly methods to detect food fraud and contamination, and rapid/high-throughput screening methods for the analysis of food in general. In addition to being robust and reproducible, these methods should be portable and ideally handheld and/or remote sensor devices, that can be taken to or be positioned on/at-line at points of vulnerability along complex food supply networks and require a minimum amount of background training to acquire information rich data rapidly (ergo point-and-shoot). Here we briefly discuss a range of spectrometry and spectroscopy based approaches, many of which are commercially available, as well as other methods currently under development. We discuss a future perspective of how this range of detection methods in the growing sensor portfolio, along with developments in computational and information sciences such as predictive computing and the Internet of Things, will together form systems- and technology-based approaches that significantly reduce the areas of vulnerability to food crime within food supply chains. As food fraud is a problem of systems and therefore requires systems level solutions and thinking.

Identifying the Impact of Incomplete Datasets on Process Cycle Time Prediction in an Aerospace Assembly Line

Supply Chain Simulation (SCS) is applied to acquire information to support outsourcing decisions but obtaining enough detail in key parameters can often be a barrier to making well informed decisions.
One aspect of SCS that has been relatively unexplored is the impact of inaccurate data around delays within the SC. The impact of the magnitude and variability of process cycle time on typical performance indicators in a SC context is studied.
System cycle time, WIP levels and throughput are more sensitive to the magnitude of deterministic deviations in process cycle time than variable deviations. Manufacturing costs are not very sensitive to these deviations.
Future opportunities include investigating the impact of process failure or product defects, including logistics and transportation between SC members and using alternative costing methodologies.

Management of public water supply to reduce power cost and improve wind power uptake

This paper presents a study on the implementation of Real-Time Pricing (RTP) based Demand Side Management (DSM) of water pumping at a clean water pumping station in Northern Ireland, with the intention of minimising electricity costs and maximising the usage of electricity from wind generation. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to create pumping schedules based on system constraints and electricity tariff scenarios. Implementation of this method would allow the water network operator to make significant savings on electricity costs while also helping to mitigate the variability of wind generation.

Management of public water supply to reduce energy cost and improve wind power uptake

This paper presents a study on the implementation of Real-Time Pricing (RTP) based Demand Side Management (DSM) of water pumping at a clean water pumping station in Northern Ireland, with the intention of minimising electricity costs and maximising the usage of electricity from wind generation. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to create pumping schedules based on system constraints and electricity tariff scenarios. Implementation of this method would allow the water network operator to make significant savings on electricity costs while also helping to mitigate the variability of wind generation.