998 resultados para stochastic methods
Resumo:
The Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method is an alternative time-marching method to classical leapfrog finite difference schemes inthe simulation of wave-like propagating phenomena. It is based on the fundamentals of the Fourier transform to compute the spatial derivativesof hyperbolic differential equations. Therefore, it results in an isotropic operator that can be implemented in an efficient way for room acousticssimulations. However, one of the first issues to be solved consists on modeling wall absorption. Unfortunately, there are no references in thetechnical literature concerning to that problem. In this paper, assuming real and constant locally reacting impedances, several proposals toovercome this problem are presented, validated and compared to analytical solutions in different scenarios.
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The State of Iowa currently has approximately 69,000 miles of unpaved secondary roads. Due to the low traffic count on these unpaved o nts as ng e two dust ed d roads, paving with asphalt or Portland cement concrete is not economical. Therefore to reduce dust production, the use of dust suppressants has been utilized for decades. This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of several widely used dust suppressants through quantitative field testing on two of Iowa’s most widely used secondary road surface treatments: crushed limestone rock and alluvial sand/gravel. These commercially available dust suppressants included: lignin sulfonate, calcium chloride, and soybean oil soapstock. These suppressants were applied to 1000 ft test sections on four unpaved roads in Story County, Iowa. Tduplicate field conditions, the suppressants were applied as a surface spray once in early June and again in late August or early September. The four unpaved roads included two with crushed limestone rock and two with alluvial sand/gravel surface treatmewell as high and low traffic counts. The effectiveness of the dust suppressants was evaluated by comparing the dust produced on treated and untreated test sections. Dust collection was scheduled for 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after each application, for a total testiperiod of 16 weeks. Results of a cost analysis between annual dust suppressant application and biennial aggregate replacement indicated that the cost of the dust suppressant, its transportation, and application were relatively high when compared to that of thaggregate types. Therefore, the biennial aggregate replacement is considered more economical than annual dust suppressant application, although the application of annual dust suppressant reduced the cost of road maintenance by 75 %. Results of thecollection indicated that the lignin sulfonate suppressant outperformed calcium chloride and soybean oil soapstock on all four unpavroads, the effect of the suppressants on the alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment was less than that on the crushed limestone rock, the residual effects of all the products seem reasonably well after blading, and the combination of alluvial sand/gravel surface treatment anhigh traffic count caused dust reduction to decrease dramatically.
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The purpose of this research was to summarize existing nondestructive test methods that have the potential to be used to detect materials-related distress (MRD) in concrete pavements. The various nondestructive test methods were then subjected to selection criteria that helped to reduce the size of the list so that specific techniques could be investigated in more detail. The main test methods that were determined to be applicable to this study included two stress-wave propagation techniques (impact-echo and spectral analysis of surface waves techniques), infrared thermography, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and visual inspection. The GPR technique was selected for a preliminary round of “proof of concept” trials. GPR surveys were carried out over a variety of portland cement concrete pavements for this study using two different systems. One of the systems was a state-of-the-art GPR system that allowed data to be collected at highway speeds. The other system was a less sophisticated system that was commercially available. Surveys conducted with both sets of equipment have produced test results capable of identifying subsurface distress in two of the three sites that exhibited internal cracking due to MRD. Both systems failed to detect distress in a single pavement that exhibited extensive cracking. Both systems correctly indicated that the control pavement exhibited negligible evidence of distress. The initial positive results presented here indicate that a more thorough study (incorporating refinements to the system, data collection, and analysis) is needed. Improvements in the results will be dependent upon defining the optimum number and arrangement of GPR antennas to detect the most common problems in Iowa pavements. In addition, refining highfrequency antenna response characteristics will be a crucial step toward providing an optimum GPR system for detecting materialsrelated distress.
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A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.
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Analytical results harmonisation is investigated in this study to provide an alternative to the restrictive approach of analytical methods harmonisation which is recommended nowadays for making possible the exchange of information and then for supporting the fight against illicit drugs trafficking. Indeed, the main goal of this study is to demonstrate that a common database can be fed by a range of different analytical methods, whatever the differences in levels of analytical parameters between these latter ones. For this purpose, a methodology making possible the estimation and even the optimisation of results similarity coming from different analytical methods was then developed. In particular, the possibility to introduce chemical profiles obtained with Fast GC-FID in a GC-MS database is studied in this paper. By the use of the methodology, the similarity of results coming from different analytical methods can be objectively assessed and the utility in practice of database sharing by these methods can be evaluated, depending on profiling purposes (evidential vs. operational perspective tool). This methodology can be regarded as a relevant approach for database feeding by different analytical methods and puts in doubt the necessity to analyse all illicit drugs seizures in one single laboratory or to implement analytical methods harmonisation in each participating laboratory.
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Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.
Resumo:
Voriconazole (VRC) is a broad-spectrum antifungal triazole with nonlinear pharmacokinetics. The utility of measurement of voriconazole blood levels for optimizing therapy is a matter of debate. Available high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and bioassay methods are technically complex, time-consuming, or have a narrow analytical range. Objectives of the present study were to develop new, simple analytical methods and to assess variability of voriconazole blood levels in patients with invasive mycoses. Acetonitrile precipitation, reverse-phase separation, and UV detection were used for HPLC. A voriconazole-hypersusceptible Candida albicans mutant lacking multidrug efflux transporters (cdr1Delta/cdr1Delta, cdr2Delta/cdr2Delta, flu1Delta/flu1Delta, and mdr1Delta/mdr1Delta) and calcineurin subunit A (cnaDelta/cnaDelta) was used for bioassay. Mean intra-/interrun accuracies over the VRC concentration range from 0.25 to 16 mg/liter were 93.7% +/- 5.0%/96.5% +/- 2.4% (HPLC) and 94.9% +/- 6.1%/94.7% +/- 3.3% (bioassay). Mean intra-/interrun coefficients of variation were 5.2% +/- 1.5%/5.4% +/- 0.9% and 6.5% +/- 2.5%/4.0% +/- 1.6% for HPLC and bioassay, respectively. The coefficient of concordance between HPLC and bioassay was 0.96. Sequential measurements in 10 patients with invasive mycoses showed important inter- and intraindividual variations of estimated voriconazole area under the concentration-time curve (AUC): median, 43.9 mg x h/liter (range, 12.9 to 71.1) on the first and 27.4 mg x h/liter (range, 2.9 to 93.1) on the last day of therapy. During therapy, AUC decreased in five patients, increased in three, and remained unchanged in two. A toxic encephalopathy probably related to the increase of the VRC AUC (from 71.1 to 93.1 mg x h/liter) was observed. The VRC AUC decreased (from 12.9 to 2.9 mg x h/liter) in a patient with persistent signs of invasive aspergillosis. These preliminary observations suggest that voriconazole over- or underexposure resulting from variability of blood levels might have clinical implications. Simple HPLC and bioassay methods offer new tools for monitoring voriconazole therapy.
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We evaluated 25 protocol variants of 14 independent computational methods for exon identification, transcript reconstruction and expression-level quantification from RNA-seq data. Our results show that most algorithms are able to identify discrete transcript components with high success rates but that assembly of complete isoform structures poses a major challenge even when all constituent elements are identified. Expression-level estimates also varied widely across methods, even when based on similar transcript models. Consequently, the complexity of higher eukaryotic genomes imposes severe limitations on transcript recall and splice product discrimination that are likely to remain limiting factors for the analysis of current-generation RNA-seq data.
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Aim Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location World-wide.Methods Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.
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Deterioration in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements can occur due to distresses caused by a combination of traffic loads and weather conditions. Hot mix asphalt (HMA) overlay is the most commonly used rehabilitation technique for such deteriorated PCC pavements. However, the performance of these HMA overlaid pavements is hindered due to the occurrence of reflective cracking, resulting in significant reduction of pavement serviceability. Various fractured slab techniques, including rubblization, crack and seat, and break and seat are used to minimize reflective cracking by reducing the slab action. However, the design of structural overlay thickness for cracked and seated and rubblized pavements is difficult as the resulting structure is neither a “true” rigid pavement nor a “true” flexible pavement. Existing design methodologies use the empirical procedures based on the AASHO Road Test conducted in 1961. But, the AASHO Road Test did not employ any fractured slab technique, and there are numerous limitations associated with extrapolating its results to HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. The main objective of this project is to develop a mechanistic-empirical (ME) design approach for the HMA overlay thickness design for fractured PCC pavements. In this design procedure, failure criteria such as the tensile strain at the bottom of HMA layer and the vertical compressive strain on the surface of subgrade are used to consider HMA fatigue and subgrade rutting, respectively. The developed ME design system is also implemented in a Visual Basic computer program. A partial validation of the design method with reference to an instrumented trial project (IA-141, Polk County) in Iowa is provided in this report. Tensile strain values at the bottom of the HMA layer collected from the FWD testing at this project site are in agreement with the results obtained from the developed computer program.
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The members of the Iowa Concrete Paving Association, the National Concrete Pavement Technology Center Research Committee, and the Iowa Highway Research Board commissioned a study to examine alternative ways of developing transverse joints in portland cement concrete pavements. The present study investigated six separate variations of vertical metal strips placed above and below the dowels in conventional baskets. In addition, the study investigated existing patented assemblies and a new assembly developed in Spain and used in Australia. The metal assemblies were placed in a new pavement and allowed to stay in place for 30 days before the Iowa Department of Transportation staff terminated the test by directing the contractor to saw and seal the joints. This report describes the design, construction, testing, and conclusions of the project.
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In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.
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We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid (whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then the problem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.