Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models

This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. We used three machine learning models namely artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression to predict output uncertainties. These three models produce similar verification results, which can be improved by merging their outputs dynamically. We propose an approach to form a committee of the three models to combine their outputs. The approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model in the Brue catchment in UK and the Bagmati catchment in Nepal. The verification results show that merged output is better than an individual model output. [1] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press, 2013.

Towards a new international financial architecture: report of the Task Force of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, 21 January 1999 = Hacia una nueva arquitectura financiera internacional: informe del Grupo de Trabajo del Comité Ejecutivo de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales de las Naciones Unidas, 21 de enero de 1999

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Finding solutions to the debt problems of developing countries: report of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (New York, 20 May 1999)

Includes bibliography

Networked control system for the guidance of a four-wheel steering agricultural robotic platform

A current trend in the agricultural area is the development of mobile robots and autonomous vehicles for precision agriculture (PA). One of the major challenges in the design of these robots is the development of the electronic architecture for the control of the devices. In a joint project among research institutions and a private company in Brazil a multifunctional robotic platform for information acquisition in PA is being designed. This platform has as main characteristics four-wheel propulsion and independent steering, adjustable width, span of 1,80m in height, diesel engine, hydraulic system, and a CAN-based networked control system (NCS). This paper presents a NCS solution for the platform guidance by the four-wheel hydraulic steering distributed control. The control strategy, centered on the robot manipulators control theory, is based on the difference between the desired and actual position and considering the angular speed of the wheels. The results demonstrate that the NCS was simple and efficient, providing suitable steering performance for the platform guidance. Even though the simplicity of the NCS solution developed, it also overcame some verified control challenges in the robot guidance system design such as the hydraulic system delay, nonlinearities in the steering actuators, and inertia in the steering system due the friction of different terrains. Copyright © 2012 Eduardo Pacincia Godoy et al.

Social dimensions of macroeconomic policy: report of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations

Introduction The social agenda is long-term in nature, in the sense that poverty alleviation along with a better distribution of income, wealth and opportunities are long-term goals. A sound macroeconomic policy, on the other hand, has to do largely with the consistent management of short-term policy instruments pursuing a sustainable and predictable pace for aggregate economic variables and major prices (wages, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates). In spite of the different arena and rationale in which they play, there are strong links between the two. First and most obvious, macroeconomic adjustment and structural reform are more likely to be sustainable when they are equitable. Second, social intervention —i.e., policies, programmes and reforms aimed at improving social performance in the long run—, needs stable funding which is not always available in view of macroeconomic constraints. Third, macroeconomic instability —especially episodes of recession or hyperinflation— increases poverty and inequality, while restoring macroeconomic equilibrium does not restore previous social balances. Finally, there is no unique macroeconomic policy mix to tackle a given situation, and the policy options may not be neutral from a social standpoint. Monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies, together with structural reform, have major consequences for the social wellbeing of societies, not only in terms of protection against shocks and crises but also in terms of equity. Many, if not all, of the necessary social policies are of a domestic nature. This report thus concentrates on domestic strategies aimed at maximizing the linkages between consistent macroeconomic policies and social progress. Pursuing them, however, depends to a considerable extent on the international enabling environment in which the global financial system, the unsettled debt crisis and increasing ODA flows play a significant role. Countries operate in a world economy where market players everywhere immediately scrutinize domestic monetary, financial or fiscal policy decisions and the performance of exchange rate regimes of individual countries. Under these conditions, the room for manoeuvre of policymakers has become considerably constrained. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly complex to incorporate the social dimensions into such policy decisions, to the extent that external analysts consider that authorities are sacrificing sound macroeconomic policies. The main message of the report is that the expediency of short-term economic efficiency as embedded in much of the advice on macroeconomic stability needs to be tempered by long-term development objectives. The report starts with a short historical background which describes the ascendancy of macroeconomic policies over social development policies (chapter I). It continues with an evaluation of the relation between macroeconomic consistency and social effort (chapter II), and the importance of sustainable and stable growth for social progress (chapter III). The report then turns to the need for an equity-enhancing growth strategy (chapter IV) and an analysis of the priorities of social policies in an integrated approach to growth (chapter V). The final chapter adds some final institutional remarks.

Draft revised text of the constituent declaration and functions and rules of procedure of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee as adopted by the 19th Session of the CDCC, 13-14 March 2002. Note by the Secretariat

Includes bibliography

Committee on Cooperation among Developing Countries and Regions: annotated provisional agenda

Includes bibliography

Committee on Cooperation among Developing Countries and Regions: provisional agenda

Includes bibliography

ECLAC Sessional Ad Hoc Committee on Population and Development: annotated provisional agenda

Includes bibliography

ECLAC Sessional Ad Hoc Committee on Population and Development: provisional agenda

Includes bibliography