886 resultados para social processes - predictions
Resumo:
The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.
To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.
The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.
Resumo:
People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.
Resumo:
Rates of HIV infection continue to climb among minority populations and men who have sex with men (MSM), with African American/Black MSM being especially impacted. Numerous studies have found HIV transmission risk to be associated with many health and social disparities resulting from larger environmental and structural forces. Using anthropological and social environment-based theories of resilience that focus on individual agency and larger social and environmental structures, this dissertation employed a mixed methods design to investigate resilience processes among African American/Black MSM. Quantitative analyses compared African American/Black (N=108) and Caucasian/White (N=250) MSM who participated in a previously conducted randomized controlled trial (RCT) of sexual and substance use risk reduction interventions. At RCT study entry, using past 90 day recall periods, there were no differences in unprotected sex frequency, however African American/Black MSM reported higher frequencies of days high (P Qualitative data collected among a sub-sample of African American/Black MSM from the RCT (N=21) described the men’s experiences of living with multiple health and social disparities and the importance of RCT study assessments in facilitating reductions in risk behaviors. A cross-case analysis showed different resilience processes undertaken by men who experienced low socioeconomic status, little family support, and homophobia (N=16) compared to those who did not (N=5). The dissertation concludes that resilience processes to HIV transmission risk and related health and social disparities among African American/Black MSM varies and are dependent on specific social environmental factors, including social relationships, structural homophobia, and access to social, economic, and cultural capital. Men define for themselves what it means to be resilient within their social environment. These conclusions suggest that both individual and structural-level resilience-based HIV prevention interventions are needed.
Resumo:
The purpose of this case study is to determine the influence of the curriculum used by the Guatemalan Municipal Orchestra (GMO) upon the social interactions of its members. Social interactions include relations with families, teachers, and music colleagues. To determine this influence, the researcher framed the study using three main components: the impact of music in the development of children’s social skills; the curricula forming educational processes; and the characteristics of the Venezuela musical program, El Sistema. These foundations are explored via the tenets of participatory literacy. The data collection included interviews, surveys, and observation of students, parents, teachers, and administrative personnel. Two primary themes emerged from the data analysis: the development of a sense of community and the presence of intrinsic and external motivators implicit in the GMO environment. The final analysis suggests that curricular practices in the GMO positively influenced the development of students’ social interactions.
Resumo:
This paper focuses on the ties between social and digital inequalities among Argentinean youth. It uses a qualitative approach to explore different aspects of the everyday lives of adolescents, such as sociability, leisure time and family use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), in order to assess the impact of the Connecting Equality Program (Programa Conectar Igualdad, PCI) on reducing digital inequalities and fostering social inclusion. What were the existing conditions of access for students and their families when the PCI was first implemented? What influence does the implementation of the PCI have on the individual, family and scholastic appropriation of ICTs? How does the use of computers and the Internet vary among youth? Has this large-scale incorporation of netbooks in schools, and especially homes and free time changed it in any way? Does the appropriation of ICTs through student participation in the PCI contribute to material and symbolic social inclusion? In order to answer these questions, we compare the processes of ICT appropriation among lower and middle class adolescents, focusing on the distinctive uses and meanings assigned to computers and the Internet by boys and girls in their daily lives. For this purpose we analyze data collected through semi-structured interviews in two schools in Greater La Plata, Argentina during 2012. The main findings show that in terms of access, skills and types of use, the implementation of the PCI has had a positive impact among lower class youth, guaranteeing access to their first computers and promoting the sharing of knowledge and digital skills with family members. Moreover, evidence of more diverse and intense use of ICTs among lower class students reveals the development of digital skills related to educational activities. Finally, in terms of sociability, having a personal netbook enables access to information and cultural goods which are very significant in generating ties and strengthening identities and social integration
Resumo:
This paper focuses on the ties between social and digital inequalities among Argentinean youth. It uses a qualitative approach to explore different aspects of the everyday lives of adolescents, such as sociability, leisure time and family use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), in order to assess the impact of the Connecting Equality Program (Programa Conectar Igualdad, PCI) on reducing digital inequalities and fostering social inclusion. What were the existing conditions of access for students and their families when the PCI was first implemented? What influence does the implementation of the PCI have on the individual, family and scholastic appropriation of ICTs? How does the use of computers and the Internet vary among youth? Has this large-scale incorporation of netbooks in schools, and especially homes and free time changed it in any way? Does the appropriation of ICTs through student participation in the PCI contribute to material and symbolic social inclusion? In order to answer these questions, we compare the processes of ICT appropriation among lower and middle class adolescents, focusing on the distinctive uses and meanings assigned to computers and the Internet by boys and girls in their daily lives. For this purpose we analyze data collected through semi-structured interviews in two schools in Greater La Plata, Argentina during 2012. The main findings show that in terms of access, skills and types of use, the implementation of the PCI has had a positive impact among lower class youth, guaranteeing access to their first computers and promoting the sharing of knowledge and digital skills with family members. Moreover, evidence of more diverse and intense use of ICTs among lower class students reveals the development of digital skills related to educational activities. Finally, in terms of sociability, having a personal netbook enables access to information and cultural goods which are very significant in generating ties and strengthening identities and social integration
Resumo:
This paper focuses on the ties between social and digital inequalities among Argentinean youth. It uses a qualitative approach to explore different aspects of the everyday lives of adolescents, such as sociability, leisure time and family use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), in order to assess the impact of the Connecting Equality Program (Programa Conectar Igualdad, PCI) on reducing digital inequalities and fostering social inclusion. What were the existing conditions of access for students and their families when the PCI was first implemented? What influence does the implementation of the PCI have on the individual, family and scholastic appropriation of ICTs? How does the use of computers and the Internet vary among youth? Has this large-scale incorporation of netbooks in schools, and especially homes and free time changed it in any way? Does the appropriation of ICTs through student participation in the PCI contribute to material and symbolic social inclusion? In order to answer these questions, we compare the processes of ICT appropriation among lower and middle class adolescents, focusing on the distinctive uses and meanings assigned to computers and the Internet by boys and girls in their daily lives. For this purpose we analyze data collected through semi-structured interviews in two schools in Greater La Plata, Argentina during 2012. The main findings show that in terms of access, skills and types of use, the implementation of the PCI has had a positive impact among lower class youth, guaranteeing access to their first computers and promoting the sharing of knowledge and digital skills with family members. Moreover, evidence of more diverse and intense use of ICTs among lower class students reveals the development of digital skills related to educational activities. Finally, in terms of sociability, having a personal netbook enables access to information and cultural goods which are very significant in generating ties and strengthening identities and social integration
Resumo:
This report presents the main findings from a project entitled ‘Evaluating the Business Impact of Social Science', commissioned by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and undertaken by a team of researchers from the University of Hull. In brief, the project involved an examination of the processes through which social science research and related activities impact upon business (defined broadly to incorporate large and small private sector businesses as well as social enterprises, but excluding public sector organisations) in relation to three of the UK’s leading business/management schools that have received significant amounts of ESRC funding in recent years: Cardiff Business School, Lancaster University Management School, and Warwick Business School
Resumo:
Coastal zones with their natural and societal subsystems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social references and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decisionmaking on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multifunctional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.
Resumo:
Design embeds ideas in communication and artefacts in subtle and psychologically powerful ways. Sociologist Pierre Bourdieu coined the term ‘symbolic violence’ to describe how powerful ideologies, priorities, values and even sensibilities are constructed and reproduced through cultural institutions, processes and practices. Through symbolic violence, individuals learn to consider unjust conditions as natural and even come to value customs and ideas that are oppressive. Symbolic violence normalises structural violence and enables real violence to take place, often preceding it and later justifying it. Feminist, class, race and indigenous scholars and activists describe how oppressions (how patriarchy, racism, colonialism, etc.) exist within institutions and structures, and also within cultural practices that embed ideologies into everyday life. The theory of symbolic violence sheds light on how design can function to naturalise oppressions and then obfuscate power relations around this process. Through symbolic violence, design can function as an enabler for the exploitation of certain groups of people and the environment they (and ultimately ‘we’) depend on to live. Design functions as symbolic violence when it is involved with the creation and reproduction of ideas, practices, tools and processes that result in structural and other types of violence (including ecocide). Breaking symbolic violence involves discovering how it works and building capacities to challenge and transform dysfunctional ideologies, structures and institutions. This conversation will give participants an opportunity to discuss, critique and/or develop the theory of design as symbolic violence as a basis for the development of design strategies for social justice.
Resumo:
During the last twenty years (1995-2015), the world of commerce has expanded beyond the traditional brick-and-mortar high street to a global shop front accessible to billions of users via the Worldwide Web (WWW). Consumers are now using the web to immerse themselves in virtual shop fronts, using Social Media (SM) to communicate and share product ideas with friends and family. Retail organisations recognise the need to develop and adapt their strategies to respond to the increasing use of SM. New goals must be set in order to identify how companies will integrate social media into current practices. This research aims to suggest an advisable and comprehensive SM strategy for companies operating in the global retail sector, based on an exploratory analysis of three multi-national retail organisations' existing SM strategies. This will be assessed in conjunction with a broader investigation into social media in the retail industry. From this, a strategy will be devised to improve internal and external communication as well as knowledge management through the use of social media. Findings suggest that the use of SM within the retail industry has dramatically improved collaboration and communication processes for organisations as they are now able to converse better with stakeholders and the tools are relatively simple to integrate and implement as they benefit one another.
Resumo:
In today’s technology-driven marketplace, the adoption and management of corporate and customer-facing Social Networking Sites (SNs) is often viewed as a key success factor for Travel Industry (TI) organisations. Knowledge management and the sharing of expertise and experiences through communication between internal and external stakeholders via social networks is an activity which TI organisations are aiming to exploit in order to improve the open sharing, retrieval, organisation and leveraging of knowledge. Through a study of currently-available literature relating to social networking adoption within the TI and a case study analysis of corporate social networking practices at three multi-national TI organisations (British Airways, Thomas Cook and Marriott Hotels), it may be observed that correlations exist between the development of social networking and the processes TI organisations now use to manage knowledge. We explore how these companies are currently utilizing SNs to improve knowledge management practices inside and outside of their organisational boundaries. From our analysis, lessons may emerge as to how TI companies are gaining competitive advantage through the use of social networking; a proposed strategy is identified to determine how TI organisations may make best use of social networks.
Resumo:
This article examines the transformation in the conceptual understanding of international intervention over the last two decades. It suggests that this conceptual shift can be usefully interrogated through its imbrication within broader epistemological shifts highlighting the limits of causal knowledge claims: heuristically framed in this article in terms of the shift from policy interventions within the problematic of causation to those concerned with the management of effects. In this shift, the means and mechanisms of international intervention have been transformed, no longer focused on the universal application of Western causal knowledge through policy interventions but rather on the effects of specific and unique local and organic processes at work in societies themselves. The focus on effects takes the conceptualisation of intervention out of the traditional terminological lexicon of International Relations theory and instead recasts problems in increasingly organicised ways, suggesting that artificial or hubristic attempts at socio-political intervention should be excluded or minimised.
Resumo:
Two types of health reforms in Latin America are analysed: one based on insurance and service commodification and the one referred to the unified public systems of progressive governments. Health insurance with explicit service packages has not fulfilled their purposes of universal coverage, equal access to necessary health services and improvement of health conditions but has opened health as a field of profit making for insurance companies and private health providers. The national health services as a state obligation have developed territorialized health services and widened substantially timely access to the majority of the population. The adoption of an integrated and wide social policy has an impact on population well fare. It faces some problems derived from the old health systems and the power of the insurance and medical complex.