Quantifying short-term dynamics of Parkinson's disease using self-reported symptom data from an internet social network

Background: Parkinson’s disease (PD) is an incurable neurological disease with approximately 0.3% prevalence. The hallmark symptom is gradual movement deterioration. Current scientific consensus about disease progression holds that symptoms will worsen smoothly over time unless treated. Accurate information about symptom dynamics is of critical importance to patients, caregivers, and the scientific community for the design of new treatments, clinical decision making, and individual disease management. Long-term studies characterize the typical time course of the disease as an early linear progression gradually reaching a plateau in later stages. However, symptom dynamics over durations of days to weeks remains unquantified. Currently, there is a scarcity of objective clinical information about symptom dynamics at intervals shorter than 3 months stretching over several years, but Internet-based patient self-report platforms may change this. Objective: To assess the clinical value of online self-reported PD symptom data recorded by users of the health-focused Internet social research platform PatientsLikeMe (PLM), in which patients quantify their symptoms on a regular basis on a subset of the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Ratings Scale (UPDRS). By analyzing this data, we aim for a scientific window on the nature of symptom dynamics for assessment intervals shorter than 3 months over durations of several years. Methods: Online self-reported data was validated against the gold standard Parkinson’s Disease Data and Organizing Center (PD-DOC) database, containing clinical symptom data at intervals greater than 3 months. The data were compared visually using quantile-quantile plots, and numerically using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. By using a simple piecewise linear trend estimation algorithm, the PLM data was smoothed to separate random fluctuations from continuous symptom dynamics. Subtracting the trends from the original data revealed random fluctuations in symptom severity. The average magnitude of fluctuations versus time since diagnosis was modeled by using a gamma generalized linear model. Results: Distributions of ages at diagnosis and UPDRS in the PLM and PD-DOC databases were broadly consistent. The PLM patients were systematically younger than the PD-DOC patients and showed increased symptom severity in the PD off state. The average fluctuation in symptoms (UPDRS Parts I and II) was 2.6 points at the time of diagnosis, rising to 5.9 points 16 years after diagnosis. This fluctuation exceeds the estimated minimal and moderate clinically important differences, respectively. Not all patients conformed to the current clinical picture of gradual, smooth changes: many patients had regimes where symptom severity varied in an unpredictable manner, or underwent large rapid changes in an otherwise more stable progression. Conclusions: This information about short-term PD symptom dynamics contributes new scientific understanding about the disease progression, currently very costly to obtain without self-administered Internet-based reporting. This understanding should have implications for the optimization of clinical trials into new treatments and for the choice of treatment decision timescales.

Selection & development of short-term project team members:developmental stability as an indicator of interpersonal skills

Short-term project teams do not have the advantage of prior performance or long-term membership to facilitate development of effective team performance. Research suggests interpersonal skills are crucial to success but this is under researched longitudinally. Evolutionary psychology can provide a lens to explain how people develop differing levels of interpersonal skills via the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and pro-social behaviours. This research aims to investigate the relationship between fluctuating asymmetry and interpersonal skills, the impact of training and to further the evolutionary psychology field by embedding research in a real-world context as opposed to solely in laboratory or student settings.

Short-term changes in ocular biometry and refraction after discontinuation of long-term orthokeratology

OBJECTIVE: To assess refractive and biometric changes 1 week after discontinuation of lens wear in subjects who had been wearing orthokeratology (OK) contact lenses for 2 years. METHODS: Twenty-nine subjects aged 6 to 12 years and with myopia of -0.75 to -4.00 diopters (D) and astigmatism of ≤1.00 D participated in the study. Measurements of axial length and anterior chamber depth (Zeiss IOLMaster), corneal power and shape, and cycloplegic refraction were taken 1 week after discontinuation and compared with those at baseline and after 24 months of lens wear. RESULTS: A hyperopic shift was found at 24 months relative to baseline in spherical equivalent refractive error (+1.86±1.01 D), followed by a myopic shift at 1 week relative to 24 months (-1.93±0.92 D) (both P<0.001). Longer axial lengths were found at 24 months and 1 week in comparison to baseline (0.47±0.18 and 0.51±0.18 mm, respectively) (both P<0.001). The increase in axial length at 1 week relative to 24 months was statistically significant (0.04±0.06 mm; P=0.006). Anterior chamber depth did not change significantly over time (P=0.31). Significant differences were found between 24 months and 1 week relative to baseline and between 1-week and 24-month visits in mean corneal power (-1.68±0.80, -0.44±0.32, and 1.23±0.70 D, respectively) (all P≤0.001). Refractive change at 1 week in comparison to 24 months strongly correlated with changes in corneal power (r=-0.88; P<0.001) but not with axial length changes (r=-0.09; P=0.66). Corneal shape changed significantly between the baseline and 1-week visits (0.15±0.10 D; P<0.001). Corneal shape changed from a prolate to a more oblate corneal shape at the 24-month and 1-week visits in comparison to baseline (both P≤0.02) but did not change significantly between 24 months and 1 week (P=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The effects of long-term OK on ocular biometry and refraction are still present after 1-week discontinuation of lens wear. Refractive change after discontinuation of long-term OK is primarily attributed to the recovery of corneal shape and not to an increase in the axial length.

Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of short-term detraining on postprandial metabolism, endothelial function, and inflammation in endurance-trained men:dissociation between changes in triglyceride metabolism and endothelial function

Endurance-trained athletes experience a low level of postprandial lipaemia, but this rapidly increases with detraining. We sought to determine whether detraining-induced changes to postprandial metabolism influenced endothelial function and inflammation. Eight endurance-trained men each undertook two oral fat tolerance tests [blood taken fasted and for 6 h following a high-fat test meal (80 g fat, 80 g carbohydrate)]: one during a period of their normal training (trained) and one after 1 wk of no exercise (detrained). Endothelial function in the cutaneous microcirculation was assessed using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis in the fasted state and 4 h postprandially during each test. Fasting plasma triglyceride (TG) concentrations increased by 35% with detraining (P = 0.002), as did postprandial plasma (by 53%, P = 0.002), chylomicron (by 68%, P = 0.02) and very low-density lipoprotein (by 51%, P = 0.005) TG concentrations. Endothelial function decreased postprandially in both the trained (by 17%, P = 0.03) and detrained (by 22%, P = 0.03) conditions but did not differ significantly between the trained and detrained conditions in either the fasted or the postprandial states. These results suggest that, although fat ingestion induces endothelial dysfunction, interventions that alter postprandial TG metabolism will not necessarily concomitantly influence endothelial function.

Maximization of a Linear Utility Function over the Set of the Housing Market Short-Term Equilibria

AMS subject classification: 90C05, 90A14.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Short-term stability in refractive status despite large fluctuations in glucose levels in diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2

Purpose: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Methods: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD), crystalline lens thickness (LT), axial length (AL) and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD) 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD) 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD) 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. Results: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p<0.0005) and between groups (p<0.0005). However, the refractive error components and ocular aberrations were not found to alter significantly over the day in either the diabetic patients or the control subjects (p>0.05). Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. Conclusion: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours) in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients. © 2012 Huntjens et al.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Everglades wetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus (P) and responsive to P enrichment. However, whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental P additions are rare in Everglades or other wetlands. We tested the response of the Everglades wetland ecosystem to continuous, low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and 30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate, 100 m flow-through flumes located in unenriched Everglades National Park. After the first six months of dosing, the concentration and standing stock of phosphorus increased in the surface water, periphyton, and flocculent detrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean = 149 μg P g−1), while the flocculent detrital layer stored most of the accumulated P (30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2, control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responses of P concentration and standing stock were observed primarily in the high dose (30 μg L−1 above ambient) treatment. In addition, the biomass and estimated P standing stock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30 and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterations in P concentration and standing stock occurred only at the upstream ends of the flumes nearest to the point source of added nutrient. The total amount of P stored by the ecosystem within the flume increased with P dosing, although the ecosystem in the flumes retained only a small proportion of the P added over the first six months. These results indicate that oligotrophic Everglades wetlands respond rapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment, and the initial response is most noticeable in the periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Ecosystem Structure and Function Still Altered Two Decades After Short-Term Fertilization of a Seagrass Meadow

An oligotrophic phosphorus (P) limited seagrass ecosystem in Florida Bay was experimentally fertilized in a unique way. Perches were installed to encourage seabirds to roost and deliver an external source of nutrients via defecation. Two treatments were examined: (1) a chronic 23-year fertilization and (2) an earlier 28-month fertilization that was discontinued when the chronic treatment was initiated. Because of the low mobility of P in carbonate sediments, we hypothesized long-term changes to ecosystem structure and function in both treatments. Structural changes in the chronic treatment included a shift in the dominant seagrass species from Thalassia testudinum to Halodule wrightii, large increases in epiphytic biomass and sediment chlorophyll-a, and a decline in species richness. Functional changes included increased benthic metabolism and quantum efficiency. Initial changes in the 28-month fertilization were similar, but after 23 years of nutrient depuration T. testudinum has reestablished itself as the dominant species. However, P remains elevated in the sediment and H. wrightii has maintained a presence. Functionally the discontinued treatment remains altered. Biomass exceeds that in the chronic treatment and indices of productivity, elevated relative to control, are not different from the chronic fertilization. Cessation of nutrient loading has resulted in a superficial return to the pre-disturbance character of the community, but due to the nature of P cycles functional changes persist.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Evergladeswetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus(P) and responsive to P enrichment. However,whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental Padditions are rare in Everglades or otherwetlands. We tested the response of theEverglades wetland ecosystem to continuous,low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate,100 m flow-through flumes located in unenrichedEverglades National Park. After the first sixmonths of dosing, the concentration andstanding stock of phosphorus increased in thesurface water, periphyton, and flocculentdetrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean =149 μg P g−1), while the flocculentdetrital layer stored most of the accumulated P(30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2,control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responsesof P concentration and standing stock wereobserved primarily in the high dose (30 μgL−1 above ambient) treatment. Inaddition, the biomass and estimated P standingstock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterationsin P concentration and standing stock occurredonly at the upstream ends of the flumes nearestto the point source of added nutrient. Thetotal amount of P stored by the ecosystemwithin the flume increased with P dosing,although the ecosystem in the flumes retainedonly a small proportion of the P added over thefirst six months. These results indicate thatoligotrophic Everglades wetlands respondrapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment,and the initial response is most noticeable inthe periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Combined effects of short-term exposure to elevated CO2 and decreased O2 on the physiology and energy budget of the thick shell mussel Mytilus coruscus

Hypoxia and ocean acidification are two consequences of anthropogenic activities. These global trends occur on top of natural variability. In environments such as estuarine areas, short-term acute pH and O2 fluctuations are occurring simultaneously. The present study tested the combined effects of short-term seawater acidification and hypoxia on the physiology and energy budget of the thick shell mussel Mytilus coruscus. Mussels were exposed for 72 h to six combined treatments with three pH levels (8.1, 7.7 and 7.3) and two dissolved oxygen (DO) levels (2 mg/L, 6 mg/L). Clearance rate (CR), food absorption efficiency (AE), respiration rate (RR), ammonium excretion rate (ER), O:N ratio and scope for growth (SFG) were significantly reduced, and faecal organic dry weight ratio (E) was significantly increased at low DO. Low pH did not lead to a reduced SFG. Interactive effects of pH and DO were observed for CR, E and RR. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed positive relationships among most physiological indicators, especially between SFG and CR under normal DO conditions. These results demonstrate that Mytilus coruscus was sensitive to short-term (72 h) exposure to decreased O2 especially if combined with decreased pH levels. In conclusion, the short-term oxygen and pH variation significantly induced physiological changes of mussels with some interactive effects.

Short-term temporal and spatial variations in physical, optical and biogeochemical parameters in June of 2013 in Alfacs Bay (NW Mediterranean)

With the aim of analyzing the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions at high temporal and spatial resolution in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay, a beam attenuation-based approach was used as optical proxy of different biogeochemical variables. Thus, the dataset contains the attenuation proxies as well as laboratory results from the analysis of water samples, which were used to validate our approach. In addition, the major physical forcing in the Bay was also measured.

Short-term impact of soybean management on ammonia oxidizers in a Brazilian savanna under restoration as revealed by coupling different techniques

Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful to Mr. Fabiano Bielefeld Nardotto, owner of the Tabapuã dos Pireneus farm, for allowing our free movement around the farm and collection of soil samples, as well as providing information about soybean cultivation. The authors also thank Dr. Plínio de Camargo, who performed the isotopic analysis in the CENA laboratory at the University of São Paulo (USP). This work was supported by grants from the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq), Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES), and Foundation for Research Support of Distrito Federal (FAP-DF).