Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Análisis de rendimiento de aplicaciones paralelas de memoria compartida: problema N-body

Este trabajo analiza el rendimiento de cuatro nodos de cómputo multiprocesador de memoria compartida para resolver el problema N-body. Se paraleliza el algoritmo serie, y se codifica usando el lenguaje C extendido con OpenMP. El resultado son dos variantes que obedecen a dos criterios de optimización diferentes: minimizar los requisitos de memoria y minimizar el volumen de cómputo. Posteriormente, se realiza un proceso de análisis de las prestaciones del programa sobre los nodos de cómputo. Se modela el rendimiento de las variantes secuenciales y paralelas de la aplicación, y de los nodos de cómputo; se instrumentan y ejecutan los programas para obtener resultados en forma de varias métricas; finalmente se muestran e interpretan los resultados, proporcionando claves que explican ineficiencias y cuellos de botella en el rendimiento y posibles líneas de mejora. La experiencia de este estudio concreto ha permitido esbozar una incipiente metodología de análisis de rendimiento, identificación de problemas y sintonización de algoritmos a nodos de cómputo multiprocesador de memoria compartida.

Comparative study of human erythrocytes by digital holographic microscopy, confocal microscopy, and impedance volume analyzer.

Red blood cell (RBC) parameters such as morphology, volume, refractive index, and hemoglobin content are of great importance for diagnostic purposes. Existing approaches require complicated calibration procedures and robust cell perturbation. As a result, reference values for normal RBC differ depending on the method used. We present a way for measuring parameters of intact individual RBCs by using digital holographic microscopy (DHM), a new interferometric and label-free technique with nanometric axial sensitivity. The results are compared with values achieved by conventional techniques for RBC of the same donor and previously published figures. A DHM equipped with a laser diode (lambda = 663 nm) was used to record holograms in an off-axis geometry. Measurements of both RBC refractive indices and volumes were achieved via monitoring the quantitative phase map of RBC by means of a sequential perfusion of two isotonic solutions with different refractive indices obtained by the use of Nycodenz (decoupling procedure). Volume of RBCs labeled by membrane dye Dil was analyzed by confocal microscopy. The mean cell volume (MCV), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), and mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were also measured with an impedance volume analyzer. DHM yielded RBC refractive index n = 1.418 +/- 0.012, volume 83 +/- 14 fl, MCH = 29.9 pg, and MCHC 362 +/- 40 g/l. Erythrocyte MCV, MCH, and MCHC achieved by an impedance volume analyzer were 82 fl, 28.6 pg, and 349 g/l, respectively. Confocal microscopy yielded 91 +/- 17 fl for RBC volume. In conclusion, DHM in combination with a decoupling procedure allows measuring noninvasively volume, refractive index, and hemoglobin content of single-living RBCs with a high accuracy.

Decentralization and the Gains from Monitoring

This paper analyzes the delegation of contracting capacity in a moral hazard environment with sequential production in a project which involves a principal and two agents. The agent in charge of the …nal production can obtain soft information about the other agent's effort choice by investing in monitoring. I investigate the circumstances under which it is optimal for the principal to use a centralized organization in which she designs the contracts with both agents or to use a decentralized organization in which she contracts only one agent, and delegates the power to contract the other agent. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized organization can be superior to a centralized organization. This is because the principal is better off under monitoring and the incentives for an agent to invest in monitoring can be higher in a decentralized organization. The circumstances under which this is true are related to the monitoring costs and the importance of each agent for production. The results explain the recent application of the design-build method in public procurement. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…cation Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Decentralization of Contracting, Monitoring, Moral Hazard.

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) : A pedagogical guide for decision makers in the public sector

This guide introduces Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a performance measurement technique, in such a way as to be appropriate to decision makers with little or no background in economics and operational research. The use of mathematics is kept to a minimum. This guide therefore adopts a strong practical approach in order to allow decision makers to conduct their own efficiency analysis and to easily interpret results. DEA helps decision makers for the following reasons: - By calculating an efficiency score, it indicates if a firm is efficient or has capacity for improvement. - By setting target values for input and output, it calculates how much input must be decreased or output increased in order to become efficient. - By identifying the nature of returns to scale, it indicates if a firm has to decrease or increase its scale (or size) in order to minimize the average cost. - By identifying a set of benchmarks, it specifies which other firms' processes need to be analysed in order to improve its own practices.

The role of egg antigens, cytokines in granuloma formation in murine schistosomiasis mansoni

The induction of granuloma formation by soluble egg antigens (SEA) of Schistosoma mansoni is accompanied by T cell-mediated lymphokine production that regulates the intensity of the response. In the present study we have examined the ability of SDS-PAGE fractioned SEA proteins to elicit granulomas and lymphokine production in infected and egg-immunized mice. At the acute stage of infection SEA fractions (<21, 25-30, 32-38, 60-66, 70-90, 93-125, and > 200 kD) that elicited pulmonary granulomas also elicited IL-2, IL-4 lymphokine production. At the chronic stage a diminished number of fractions (60-66, 70-90, 93-125, and > 200 kD) were able to elicit granulomas with an overall decrease in IL-2, IL-4 production. Granulomas were elicited by larval-egg crossreactive and egg-specific fractions at both the acute and chronic stage of the infection. Examination of lymphokine production from egg-immunized mice demonstrated that as early as 4 days IL-2 was produced by spleen cells stimulated with <21, 32-38, 40-46, 93-125, and >200 kD fractions. By 16 days, IL-2production was envoked by 8 of 9 fractions. IL-4 production at 4 days in response to all fractions was minimal while at 16 days IL-4 was elicited with the < 21, 25-30, 50-56, 93-125, and > 200 kD fractions. The present study reveals differences in the range of SEA fractions able to elicit granulomas and IL-2, IL-4 production between acute and chronic stages of infection. Additionally, this study demonstrates sequential (IL-2 followed by IL-4) lymphokine production during the primary egg antigen response.

Recent advances in immunity to human schistosomiasis

For many years the epidemiological significance of immunity in human schistosomiasis has been the subject of inconclusive debate. Recently, the results of studies from Brazil and Kenya, on Shistosoma mansoni and from Zimbabwe and The Gambia on S. haematobium have confirmed the importance of protective immunity. In communities in endemic areas the development of immunity to infection only occurs after many years of exposure. In part this due to the slow development of antibodies wich are protective but also to the earlier development of antibody isotypes which lack protective capacity and wich are capable of interfering with the functioning of protective antibodies. Protective antibodies appear to be of the IgE class but some IgG subclasses may be also be important. Initially, blocking antibodies were thought to be predominantly IgM and IgG2 but IgG4 also seems to posses blocking activity. The early production of blocking antibodies and late production of protective antibodies may be indicative of cytokine induced immunoglobulin class swiching caused by the sequential involvment of different lymphokines.

Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

A modified assay for measuring thymocyte co-stimulatory activity

The observation that murine thymocytes increase their proliferation to interleukin 1 (IL-1) in the presence of phytohemagglutinin (PHA) when pre-incubated with interleukin 2 (IL-2) allowed the introduction of a modified assay for the measurement of IL-1 or the search of thymocyte-inducing proliferative activities in biological samples. Pre-incubation of thymocytes for 24 hr with 50 u/ml IL-2, followed by washings, elicited their maximal response to IL-1 in the usual lymphocyte activating factor (LAF) assay. This suggests that sequential events lead to thymocyte activation. The responsiveness is three to five fold greater than, and the total time of assay is the same as that of the LAF assay. Interestingly, pre-incubation with IL-2 renders thymocytes more sensitive than responsive to crude monocyte conditioned media. The use of the MTT colorimetric method for the assessment of thymocyte proliferation, and of the lectin jacalin as a co-mitogen are suggested as alternatives to be used in co-stimulatory assays.

Imaging of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia.

The aim of this study was to illustrate the chest radiographs (CR) and CT imaging features and sequential findings of cavitary necrosis in complicated childhood pneumonia. Among 30 children admitted in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit for persistent or progressive pneumonia, respiratory distress or sepsis despite adequate antibiotic therapy, a study group of 9 children (5 girls and 4 boys; mean age 4 years) who had the radiographic features and CT criteria for cavitary necrosis complicated pneumonia was identified. The pathogens identified were Streptococcus pneumoniae( n=4), Aspergillus( n=2), Legionella( n=1), and Staphylococcus aureus( n=1). Sequential CR and CT scans were retrospectively reviewed. Follow-up CR and CT were evaluated for persistent abnormalities. Chest radiographs showed consolidations in 8 of the 9 patients. On CT examination, cavitary necrosis was localized to 1 lobe in 2 patients and 7 patients showed multilobar or bilateral areas of cavitary necrosis. In 3 patients of 9, the cavitary necrosis was initially shown on CT and visualization by CR was delayed by a time span varying from 5 to 9 days. In all patients with cavities, a mean number of five cavities were seen on antero-posterior CR, contrasting with the multiple cavities seen on CT. Parapneumonic effusions were shown by CR in 3 patients and in 5 patients by CT. Bronchopleural fistulae were demonstrated by CT alone ( n=3). No purulent pericarditis was demonstrated. The CT scan displayed persistent residual pneumatoceles of the left lower lobe in 2 patients. Computed tomography is able to define a more specific pattern of abnormalities than conventional CR in children with necrotizing pneumonia and allows an earlier diagnosis of this rapidly progressing condition. Lung necrosis and cavitation may also be associated with Aspergillus or Legionella pneumonia in the pediatric population.

La reconnaissance des objets sonores chez l'humain

Abstract : This thesis investigated the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms of three processes involved in recognizing environmental sounds produced by living (animal vocalisations) and man-made (manufactured) objects: their discrimination, their plasticity, and the involvement of action representations. Results showed rapid brain discrimination between these categories beginning at ~70ms. Then, beginning at ~150ms, effects of plasticity are observed, without any influence of the categories of sounds. Both of these processes of discrimination and repetition priming involved brain structures located in temporal and frontal lobes. Activation of brain areas BA21 and BA22 suggest an access to semantic representations and/or linked to object manipulation. To investigate the involvement of action representations in sound recognition, analyses were restricted to sounds produced by man-made objects. Results suggest an access to representations linked to action functionally related to sound rather than to representations linked to action that produced sound. These effects occurred at ~300ms post-stimulus onset and involved differential activity brain regions attributed to the mirror neuron system. These data are discussed in regard to motor preparation of actions functionally linked to sounds. Collectively these data showed a sequential progression of cerebral activity underlying the recognizing of environmental sounds. The processes occurred firstly in a shared network of brain areas before propagating elsewhere and/or leading to differential activity in these structures. Cerebral responses observed in this work allowed establishing a dynamic model of discrimination of sounds produced by living and man-made objects.

Synthèse de l'évolution de la plateforme Urgonienne (Barrémien tardif à Aptien précoce) du Sud-Est de la France : facies, micropaléontologie, géochimie, géométries, paléotectonique et géomodélisation

Il y a environ 125 millions d'années, au Crétacé inférieur, la position des continents et le climat terrestre étaient bien différents de ce que l'on connait aujourd'hui. Le Sud-Est de la France, secteur de cette étude, était alors recouvert d'eau, sous un climat chaud et humide. Sur la bordure de cette étendue d'eau (appelée bassin Vocontien), qui correspond aujourd'hui aux régions de la Provence, du Vaucluse, du Gard, de l'Ardèche et du Vercors, des plateformes carbonatées, (telles que les Bahamas), se développaient. Le calcaire, formé à partir des sédiments accumulés sur ces plateformes, est appelé Urgonien. L'objectif de cette étude est de définir les facteurs qui ont influencé le développement de cette plateforme carbonatée dite « urgonienne » et dans quelle mesure. Plusieurs missions de terrain ont permis de récolter de nombreux échantillons de roche en 52 lieux répartis sur l'ensemble du Sud-Est de la France. Les observations réalisées sur le terrain ainsi que les données acquises en laboratoire (microfaune, microfacies et données géo-chimiques) ont permis, de subdiviser chacune des 52 séries urgoniennes en séquences stratigraphiques et cortèges sédimentaires. La comparaison des épaisseurs et des faciès de chaque cortège sédimentaire permet de concevoir la géométrie et l'évolution paléogéographique de la plateforme urgonienne. Les résultats de cette étude démontrent que son organisation est principalement dirigée par des failles qui ont jouées pendant le dépôt des sédiments. Sur la bordure nord du bassin Vocontien, trois failles subméridiennes contrôlent la géométrie et la répartition des environnements de dépôt. Sur sa bordure sud, ces failles synsédimentaires d'orientation N30° et N110° délimitent des blocs basculés. En tête de bloc, des séries d'épaisseurs réduites à faciès de lagon interne se sont déposées alors que les pieds de blocs sont caractérisés par des épaisseurs importantes et la présence de faciès plus externes. Ces concepts ont ensuite été testés en construisant un modèle numérique en trois dimensions de l'Urgonien du Sud-Est de la France. Sa cohérence avec les données acquises tout au long de cette étude d'une part, et sa cohérence géométrique d'autre part, valide les théories avancées. Des formations équivalentes à l'Urgonien sont réparties dans le monde entier et notamment au Moyen-Orient où elles constituent les réservoirs pétroliers les plus importants. Etre capable de caractériser les facteurs ayant influencé son architecture permet par la suite une meilleure exploitation de ses ressources énergétiques. -- Au Crétacé inférieur, l'intense activité magmatique due à la dislocation du super-continent Pangée influence fortement les conditions environnementales globales. Au Barrémien terminal et Aptien basal, période géologique dont fait l'objet cette étude, le bassin Vocontien, puis Bédoulien, recouvre le Sud-Est de la France, sous un climat chaud et humide. Sur les bordures de ces bassins, des plateformes carbonatées se mettent en place. Les sédiments qui se déposent sur ces plateformes sont à l'origine de la formation urgonienne. Afin d'étudier cette formation, une charte biostratigraphique, principalement basée sur les Orbitolinidés, et un modèle de faciès ont été développés. Les assemblages faunistiques, la succession des faciès, les observations de terrain ainsi que l'étude de signaux géochimiques ont permis le découpage séquentiel de la série urgonienne le long de 54 coupes et puis, répartis sur l'ensemble du Sud-Est de la France. Les corrélations induites par cette étude stratigraphique ont mis en évidence d'importantes variations d'épaisseur et d'environnements de dépôt au sein même de la plateforme urgonienne. Ces variations sont expliquées par le jeu de failles syn-sédimentaires qui ont compartimentées la plateforme urgonienne en blocs. Sur la bordure sud du bassin Vocontien, ces failles d'orientation N30° et N110° délimitent six blocs basculés. Au sommet du Barrémien terminal, la subsidence des blocs situés le plus au sud s'amplifie jusqu'à provoquer l'ouverture du bassin de la Bédoule au sud du secteur d'étude. Cette théorie d'évolution a ensuite été testée par l'élaboration d'un modèle numérique en trois dimensions de l'Urgonien du Sud-Est de la France. Sa cohérence avec les données acquises tout au long de cette étude d'une part, et sa cohérence géométrique d'autre part, valide les théories avancées. Des analogues de l'Urgonien sont répartis dans le monde entier et notamment au Moyen-Orient où ils représentent d'importants réservoirs pétroliers. Être capable de caractériser les facteurs ayant influencé l'architecture de l'Urgonien du Sud-Est de la France permet par la suite une meilleure exploitation de ses ressources énergétiques. -- During the Early Cretaceous epoch, intensive magmatic activity due to the dislocation of the super-continent Pangaea, highly influenced global environmental conditions, which were characterized by a warm and generally humic climate. In this context, carbonate platforms were important in tropical and subtropical shallow-water regions, and especially during the late Barremian and early Aptian, platform carbonates of so-called Urgonian affinity are widespread. In southeastern France, the Urgonian platform was part of the northern Tethyan margin and bordered the Vocontian and the Bedoulian basins. The goal of this thesis was the systematic study of the Urgonian Formation in this region, and in order to achieve this goal, a biostratigraphic chart and a facies model were developed. The faunistic assemblages, the facies succession, the field observations and the study of geochemical signals lead to a sequential subdivision of the Urgonian series along 54 sections and wells allocated in five different regions in southeastern France (Gard, Ardèche, Vercors, Vaucluse and Provence). Correlations from this stratigraphic study highlight important variations in thickness and depositional environments of the Urgonian series. These variations are explained by relative movements induced by syn-sedimentary faults, which divided the Urgonian platforms into blocks. On the southern border of the Vocontian basin, these faults, oriented N30° and N110°, delineate six tilted blocks. At the top of the upper Barremian carbonates, subsidence of the two southern blocks accelerated leading to the opening of the Bedoulian basin. The reconstruction of the sequence-stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental evolution of the Urgonian platforms was then tested by the construction of a 3D numerical model of the Urgonian formation of southeastern France. Firstly, its consistency with the data collected during this study, and secondly, its geometrical coherence validate the proposed theory. Urgonian analogs exist all over the world and particularly in Middle East where they constitute important oil reservoirs. The exact reconstruction of the major factors, which influenced the architecture of these formations, will allow for a better exploitation of these energy resources.

Thermogenic effect of amrinone in healthy men.

OBJECTIVES: The thermogenic effect of amrinone is unknown and its utilization in patients with severe cardiac failure could potentially increase oxygen requirements and therefore aggravate oxygen debt. Consequently, the present study was undertaken to assess the thermogenic response to amrinone at three different plasma concentrations under controlled conditions and to analyze amrinone's effects on various biochemical variables. DESIGN: A prospective, unblinded, controlled study. The initial control period was followed by three sequential, experimental treatments. SUBJECTS: Ten young, healthy, male volunteers with normal body weight. INTERVENTIONS: Three experimental periods. Amrinone was administered intravenously in progressive doses: a) 0.5 mg/kg followed by 5 micrograms/kg/min; b) 0.5 mg/kg followed by 10 micrograms/kg/min; and c) 1.0 mg/kg followed by 10 micrograms/kg/min. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Oxygen consumption (VO2) and CO2 production were continuously measured by means of a computerized indirect calorimeter. At the highest dose, amrinone produced a slight and significant (p < .01) increase in VO2 and in resting metabolic rate (+4.5% and +3.7%, respectively), while no change in CO2 production or in respiratory quotient occurred throughout the study. At the medium and high doses, amrinone increased plasma free fatty acid concentrations by 38% and 53%, respectively (p < .05). No variation in plasma glucose, lactate, insulin, norepinephrine, or epinephrine concentrations was observed during the study. CONCLUSIONS: Amrinone administered intravenously at therapeutic doses has minimal thermogenic and metabolic effects in humans without cardiac failure.

WebQuest per a la Farmàcia Clínica i Atenció Farmacèutica : nova metodologia mitjançant moderna tecnologia

El projecte ha estat realitzat en la Unitat de Farmàcia Clínica i Farmacoteràpia de la Facultat de Farmàcia de la Universitat de Barcelona i ha estat a desenvolupar en dos anys. La finalitat del projecte ha estat oferir a l'alumne un material docent en suport digital, adaptat a una metodologia més creativa i de treball en grup, orientat a la millora de la seva formació, autonomia i rendiment acadèmic, en els aspectes relacionats amb la Farmàcia Clínica i Farmacoteràpia i l'Atenció Farmacèutica, i que consistirà en una primera aproximació a les directrius europees. Aquest material docent en suport digital són WebQuest (WQ) estructurades per temes i via Internet, la qual cosa possibilita un sistema dinàmic de fàcil retroalimentació i en constant actualització. Mitjançant la utilització d'aquest material docent es treballen aspectes com l'ús de metodologies docents centrades en l'alumne, autoaprenentatge a distància, aprenentatge seqüencial, treball en grup, participació activa i responsabilitat de l'alumne en el procés d'ensenyament aprenentatge i l'aproximació del mateix a la realitat professional entre altres, i tot això encaminat a promoure l'adaptació dels plans docents a l'Espai Europeu d'Educació Superior (EEES). En aquest sentit podem indicar que s'han elaborat cinc WQs, els títols del qual són Sistemes Personalitzats de Dosificació, Compliment terapèutic: el gran repte actual: informació al pacient, Compliment terapèutic: el gran repte actual: informació al professional sanitari, Dispensació activa en Diabetis mellitus tipus 2 i Dispensació activa en Hipertensión arterial. Cadascuna de les WQs elaborades consta dels apartats Introducció, Tasca, Procés, Recursos, Avaluació, Conclusió, Guia Didàctica i Crèdits. Les WQs estan allotjades en la pàgina web de la Unitat de Farmàcia Clínica i Farmacoteràpia, i a elles s'accedeix a través de l'adreça web http://www.ub.és/farcli/wp0.htm