Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

Do Exposure Suits Produce a 'Race to File'? An Economic Analysis of a Tort for Risk

Conventional tort law does not allow victims of exposure to a toxic substance to seek compensation until they develop actual symptoms of illness. This may effectively bar recovery because at the time the illness arises, injurers may be judgment proof. One possible response is to allow a tort for risk that allows victims to seek expected damages at the time of exposure. However, critics charge that this could create a 'race to file' wherein victims rush to file suit to ensure that they will get a share of the injurer's limited assets. We show that such a race may or may not occur in equilibrium, and that when it does occur, not all victims choose to file at exposure if bankruptcy is an inevitable result. If bankruptcy is not inevitable, it is possible that a tort for risk will trigger bankruptcy, although a no-bankruptcy equilibrium always exists and Paretodominates the bankruptcy equilibrium. We examine the consequences of the various tort-for-risk equilibria on the compensation of exposure victims, litigation costs, and injurer care.

The relationship between risk perception and ethnicity as an explanation for late stage skin cancer diagnosis in Black and Hispanic populations: An analysis using data from the 2005 Health Information and National Trends Survey

Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between ethnicity and skin cancer risk perception while controlling for other risk factors: education, gender, age, access to healthcare, family history of skin cancer, fear, and worry. ^ Methods. This study utilized the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) dataset, a nationally representative sample of 5,586 individuals 18 years of age or older. One third of the respondents were chosen at random and asked questions involving skin cancer. Analysis was based on questions that identified skin cancer risk perception, fear of finding skin cancer, and frequency of worry about skin cancer and a variety of sociodemographic factors. ^ Results. Ethnicity had a significant impact on risk perception scores while controlling for other risk factors. Other risk factors that also had a significant impact on risk perception scores included family history of skin cancer, age, and worry. ^

G870A polymorphism of cyclin D1 gene influences cancer risk - From epidemiological study to mechanism analysis

Alternate splicing of the cyclin D1 gene gives rise to transcript a and b which encode two protein isoforms cyclin D1a and cyclin D1b. Through testing transcript a and transcript b in a series of human samples, we found that cyclin D1 transcript b is ubiquitously expressed as transcript a but in the lower abundance compared to transcript a. Epidemiological studies have reported that the cyclin D1 gene (CCND1) G870A polymorphism influences the risk for a variety of cancer. In this investigation, we examined the cyclin D1b levels in tumor samples with different genotypes and found that higher levels of cyclin D1b are expressed from the A allele than the G allele. Cyclin D1 is known as a cell cycle regulator facilitating the progression of the cell cycle from G1 to S phase in response to the mitogenic signals. It also interacts with several transcription factors and transcriptional coregulators to modulate their activities. It has been reported that cyclin D1a can substitute for estrogen to activate estrogen receptor α (ERα) mediated transcription and can induce the proliferation of estrogen responsive tissues. However the biological role of cyclin D1b in ERα transcriptional regulation has not been previously explored. In this study, we determined that cyclin D1b antagonizes the action of cyclin D1a on ERα mediated transcription. Cell proliferation assays provided the evidence that cyclin D1b negatively regulates estrogen responsive breast cancer cell growth. Taken together, our findings show that the CCND1 G870A polymorphism is correlated with increased levels of cyclin D1b and that cyclin D1b antagonizes the action of cyclin D1a on ERα mediated transcription providing evidence for the mechanism by which the CCND1 G870A polymorphism may be protective in certain types of breast cancer. ^

An analysis of Texas's school based HPV vaccine mandate: A public health risk communication failure: HPVETO!

Genital human papillomavirus (HPV) is of public health concern because persistent infection with certain HPV types can cause cervical cancer. In response to a nationwide push for cervical cancer legislation, Texas Governor Rick Perry bypassed the traditional legislative process and issued an executive order mandating compulsory HPV vaccinations for all female public school students prior to their entrance in the sixth grade. By bypassing the legislative process Governor Perry did not effectively mitigate the risk perception issues that arose around the need for and usefulness of the vaccine mandate. This policy paper uses a social policy paradigm to identify perception as the key intervening factor on how the public responds to risk information. To demonstrate how the HPV mandate failed, it analyzes four factors, economics, politics, knowledge and culture, that shape perception and influence the public's response. By understanding the factors that influence the public's perception, public health practitioners and policy makers can more effectively create preventive health policy at the state level. ^

Risk factors for encephalitis and death from West Nile virus infection: An analysis of hospitalized cases in Houston, Texas from 2002--2008

We conducted a nested case-control study to determine the significant risk factors for developing encephalitis from West Nile virus (WNV) infection. The purpose of this research project was to expand the previously published Houston study of 2002–2004 patients to include data on Houston patients from four additional years (2005–2008) to determine if there were any differences in risk factors shown to be associated with developing the more severe outcomes of WNV infection, encephalitis and death, by having this larger sample size. A re-analysis of the risk factors for encephalitis and death was conducted on all of the patients from 2002–2008 and was the focus of this proposed research. This analysis allowed for the determination to be made that there are differences in the outcome in the risk factors for encephalitis and death with an increased sample size. Retrospective medical chart reviews were completed for the 265 confirmed WNV hospitalized patients; 153 patients had encephalitis (WNE), 112 had either viral syndrome with fever (WNF) or meningitis (WNM); a total of 22 patients died. Univariate logistic regression analyses on demographic, comorbidities, and social risk factors was conducted in a similar manner as in the previously conducted study to determine the risk factors for developing encephalitis from WNV. A multivariate model was developed by using model building strategies for the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The hypothesis of this study was that there would be additional risk factors shown to be significant with the increase in sample size of the dataset. This analysis with a greater sample size and increased power supports the hypothesis in that there were additional risk factors shown to be statistically associated with the more severe outcomes of WNV infection (WNE or death). Based on univariate logistic regression results, these data showed that even though age of 20–44 years was statistically significant as a protecting effect for developing WNE in the original study, the expanded sample lacked significance. This study showed a significant WNE risk factor to be chronic alcohol abuse, when it was not significant in the original analysis. Other WNE risk factors identified in this analysis that showed to be significant but were not significant in the original analysis were cancer not in remission > 5 years, history of stroke, and chronic renal disease. When comparing the two analyses with death as an outcome, two risk factors that were shown to be significant in the original analysis but not in the expanded dataset analysis were diabetes mellitus and immunosuppression. Three risk factors shown to be significant in this expanded analysis but were not significant in the original study were illicit drug use, heroin or opiate use, and injection drug use. However, with the multiple logistic regression models, the same independent risk factors for developing encephalitis of age and history of hypertension including drug induced hypertension were consistent in both studies.^

Secondary data analysis of lead screening compliance in high-risk children

Introduction. Despite the ban of lead-containing gasoline and paint, childhood lead poisoning remains a public health issue. Furthermore, a Medicaid-eligible child is 8 times more likely to have an elevated blood lead level (EBLL) than a non-Medicaid child, which is the primary reason for the early detection lead screening mandate for ages 12 and 24 months among the Medicaid population. Based on field observations, there was evidence that suggested a screening compliance issue. Objective. The purpose of this study was to analyze blood lead screening compliance in previously lead poisoned Medicaid children and test for an association between timely lead screening and timely childhood immunizations. The mean months between follow-up tests were also examined for a significant difference between the non-compliant and compliant lead screened children. Methods. Access to the surveillance data of all childhood lead poisoned cases in Bexar County was granted by the San Antonio Metropolitan Health District. A database was constructed and analyzed using descriptive statistics, logistic regression methods and non-parametric tests. Lead screening at 12 months of age was analyzed separately from lead screening at 24 months. The small portion of the population who were also related were included in one analysis and removed from a second analysis to check for significance. Gender, ethnicity, age of home, and having a sibling with an EBLL were ruled out as confounders for the association tests but ethnicity and age of home were adjusted in the nonparametric tests. Results. There was a strong significant association between lead screening compliance at 12 months and childhood immunization compliance, with or without including related children (p<0.00). However, there was no significant association between the two variables at the age of 24 months. Furthermore, there was no significant difference between the median of the mean months of follow-up blood tests among the non-compliant and compliant lead screened population for at the 12 month screening group but there was a significant difference at the 24 month screening group (p<0.01). Discussion. Descriptive statistics showed that 61% and 56% of the previously lead poisoned Medicaid population did not receive their 12 and 24 month mandated lead screening on time, respectively. This suggests that their elevated blood lead level may have been diagnosed earlier in their childhood. Furthermore, a child who is compliant with their lead screening at 12 months of age is 2.36 times more likely to also receive their childhood immunizations on time compared to a child who was not compliant with their 12 month screening. Even though there was no statistical significant association found for the 24 month group, the public health significance of a screening compliance issue is no less important. The Texas Medicaid program needs to enforce lead screening compliance because it is evident that there has been no monitoring system in place. Further recommendations include a need for an increased focus on parental education and the importance of taking their children for wellness exams on time.^

For Safety’s Sake: A Case Study of School Security Efforts and Their Impact on Education Reform

Several studies have shown that the need to create safe and orderly schools has increasingly been addressed in a manner that disconnects these priorities from broader concerns related to student success, school culture, and child development. In this paper, we explore the consequences of expanding security procedures in response to an incident involving interracial conflict at an urban high school in the United States. We offer this case study to demonstrate how the primacy placed on safety and security resulted in the neglect of other important educational goals, such as academic engagement and a positive school culture. Through an analysis of observational, interview, focus group, and survey data, we show that while it is essential for schools to take measures that ensure the safety of students and staff, it is equally important for safety to be recognized as part of a larger set of goals that schools must concurrently pursue in order to meet the educational and developmental needs of the students they serve.

Descriptive epidemiological analysis of important risk factors associated with penicillinase -producing {\it Neisseria gonorrhoeae\/} (PPNG)

This study was designed to investigate the important risk factors associated with penicillinase-producing Neisseria gonorrhoeae (PPNG) among patients who attended Dekalb County Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic from 1982 to 1989.^ Among all of the variables examined, age was found to be the one mostly associated with PPNG, 20-24 year age group in females and 25-29 year age group in males.^ Sex was also found to be associated with PPNG. The majority of cases occurred among males 71.2%, while 28.8 occurred among females. Residential areas were also found to be strongly associated with PPNG. Most of the cases were concentrated in certain zip code urban areas, while some zip code areas farther from the urban area had fewer cases. ^

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

Sophisticated security verification on routing repaired balanced cell-based dual-rail logic against side channel analysis

Conventional dual-rail precharge logic suffers from difficult implementations of dual-rail structure for obtaining strict compensation between the counterpart rails. As a light-weight and high-speed dual-rail style, balanced cell-based dual-rail logic (BCDL) uses synchronised compound gates with global precharge signal to provide high resistance against differential power or electromagnetic analyses. BCDL can be realised from generic field programmable gate array (FPGA) design flows with constraints. However, routings still exist as concerns because of the deficient flexibility on routing control, which unfavourably results in bias between complementary nets in security-sensitive parts. In this article, based on a routing repair technique, novel verifications towards routing effect are presented. An 8 bit simplified advanced encryption processing (AES)-co-processor is executed that is constructed on block random access memory (RAM)-based BCDL in Xilinx Virtex-5 FPGAs. Since imbalanced routing are major defects in BCDL, the authors can rule out other influences and fairly quantify the security variants. A series of asymptotic correlation electromagnetic (EM) analyses are launched towards a group of circuits with consecutive routing schemes to be able to verify routing impact on side channel analyses. After repairing the non-identical routings, Mutual information analyses are executed to further validate the concrete security increase obtained from identical routing pairs in BCDL.

Evaluation, energy optimization, and spectrum analysis of an artificial noise technique to improve CWSN security

This paper presents the security evaluation, energy consumption optimization, and spectrum scarcity analysis of artificial noise techniques to increase physical-layer security in Cognitive Wireless Sensor Networks (CWSNs). These techniques introduce noise into the spectrum in order to hide real information. Nevertheless, they directly affect two important parameters in Cognitive Wireless Sensor Networks (CWSNs), energy consumption and spectrum utilization. Both are affected because the number of packets transmitted by the network and the active period of the nodes increase. Security evaluation demonstrates that these techniques are effective against eavesdropper attacks, but also optimization allows for the implementation of these approaches in low-resource networks such as Cognitive Wireless Sensor Networks. In this work, the scenario is formally modeled and the optimization according to the simulation results and the impact analysis over the frequency spectrum are presented.

Probabilistic meta-analysis of risk from the exposure to Hg in artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia

Colombia is one of the largest per capita mercury polluters in the world as a consequence of its artisanal gold mining activities. The severity of this problem in terms of potential health effects was evaluated by means of a probabilistic risk assessment carried out in the twelve departments (or provinces) in Colombia with the largest gold production. The two exposure pathways included in the risk assessment were inhalation of elemental Hg vapors and ingestion of fish contaminated with methyl mercury. Exposure parameters for the adult population (especially rates of fish consumption) were obtained from nation-wide surveys and concentrations of Hg in air and of methyl-mercury in fish were gathered from previous scientific studies. Fish consumption varied between departments and ranged from 0 to 0.3 kg d?1. Average concentrations of total mercury in fish (70 data) ranged from 0.026 to 3.3 lg g?1. A total of 550 individual measurements of Hg in workshop air (ranging from menor queDL to 1 mg m?3) and 261 measurements of Hg in outdoor air (ranging from menor queDL to 0.652 mg m?3) were used to generate the probability distributions used as concentration terms in the calculation of risk. All but two of the distributions of Hazard Quotients (HQ) associated with ingestion of Hg-contaminated fish for the twelve regions evaluated presented median values higher than the threshold value of 1 and the 95th percentiles ranged from 4 to 90. In the case of exposure to Hg vapors, minimum values of HQ for the general population exceeded 1 in all the towns included in this study, and the HQs for miner-smelters burning the amalgam is two orders of magnitude higher, reaching values of 200 for the 95th percentile. Even acknowledging the conservative assumptions included in the risk assessment and the uncertainties associated with it, its results clearly reveal the exorbitant levels of risk endured not only by miner-smelters but also by the general population of artisanal gold mining communities in Colombia.

Analysis of the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries

A pesar de los importantes avances en la reducción del hambre, la seguridad alimentaria continúa siendo un reto de dimensión internacional. La seguridad alimentaria es un concepto amplio y multidimensional, cuyo análisis abarca distintas escalas y horizontes temporales. Dada su complejidad, la identificación de las causas de la inseguridad alimentaria y la priorización de las medias para abordarlas, son dos cuestiones que suscitan un intenso debate en la actualidad. El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar el impacto de la globalización y el crecimiento económico en la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo, desde una perspectiva macro y un horizonte temporal a largo plazo. La influencia de la globalización se aborda de una manera secuencial. En primer lugar, se analiza la relación entre la inversión público-privada en infraestructuras y las exportaciones agrarias. A continuación, se estudia el impacto de las exportaciones agrarias en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. El estudio del impacto del crecimiento económico aborda los cambios paralelos en la distribución de la renta, y cómo la inequidad influye en el comportamiento de la seguridad alimentaria nacional. Además, se analiza en qué medida el crecimiento económico contribuye a acelerar el proceso de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. Con el fin de conseguir los objetivos mencionados, se llevan a cabo varios análisis econométricos basados en datos de panel, en el que se combinan datos de corte transversal de 52 países y datos temporales comprendidos en el periodo 1991-2012. Se analizan tanto variables en niveles como variables en tasas de cambio anual. Se aplican los modelos de estimación de efectos variables y efectos fijos, ambos en niveles y en primeras diferencias. La tesis incluye cuatro tipos de modelos econométricos, cada uno de ellos con sus correspondientes pruebas de robustez y especificaciones. Los resultados matizan la importancia de la globalización y el crecimiento económico como mecanismos de mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. Se obtienen dos conclusiones relativas a la globalización. En primer lugar, los resultados sugieren que la promoción de las inversiones privadas en infraestructuras contribuye a aumentar las exportaciones agrarias. En segundo lugar, se observa que las exportaciones agrarias pueden tener un impacto negativo en los indicadores de seguridad alimentaria. La combinación de estas dos conclusiones sugiere que la apertura comercial y financiera no contribuye por sí misma a la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria en los países en desarrollo. La apertura internacional de los países en desarrollo ha de ir acompañada de políticas e inversiones que desarrollen sectores productivos de alto valor añadido, que fortalezcan la economía nacional y reduzcan su dependencia exterior. En relación al crecimiento económico, a pesar del incuestionable hecho de que el crecimiento económico es una condición necesaria para reducir los niveles de subnutrición, no es una condición suficiente. Se han identificado tres estrategias adicionales que han de acompañar al crecimiento económico con el fin de intensificar su impacto positivo sobre la subnutrición. Primero, es necesario que el crecimiento económico sea acompañado de una distribución más equitativa de los ingresos. Segundo, el crecimiento económico ha de reflejarse en un aumento de inversiones en salud, agua y saneamiento y educación. Se observa que, incluso en ausencia de crecimiento económico, mejoras en el acceso a agua potable contribuyen a reducir los niveles de población subnutrida. Tercero, el crecimiento económico sostenible en el largo plazo parece tener un mayor impacto positivo sobre la seguridad alimentaria que el crecimiento económico más volátil o inestable en el corto plazo. La estabilidad macroeconómica se identifica como una condición necesaria para alcanzar una mayor mejora en la seguridad alimentaria, incluso habiéndose mejorado la equidad en la distribución de los ingresos. Por último, la tesis encuentra que los países en desarrollo analizados han experimentado diferentes trayectorias no lineales en su proceso de mejora de sus niveles de subnutrición. Los resultados sugieren que un mayor nivel inicial de subnutrición y el crecimiento económico son responsables de una respuesta más rápida al reto de la mejora de la seguridad alimentaria. ABSTRACT Despite the significant reductions of hunger, food security still remains a global challenge. Food security is a wide concept that embraces multiple dimensions, and has spatial-temporal scales. Because of its complexity, the identification of the drivers underpinning food insecurity and the prioritization of measures to address them are a subject of intensive debate. This thesis attempts to assess the impact of globalization and economic growth on food security in developing countries with a macro level scale (country) and using a long-term approach. The influence of globalization is addressed in a sequential way. First, the impact of public-private investment in infrastructure on agricultural exports in developing countries is analyzed. Secondly, an assessment is conducted to determine the impact of agricultural exports on food security indicators. The impact of economic growth focuses on the parallel changes in income inequality and how the income distribution influences countries' food security performance. Furthermore, the thesis analyzes to what extent economic growth helps accelerating food security improvements. To address the above mentioned goals, various econometric models are formulated. Models use panel data procedures combining cross-sectional data of 52 countries and time series data from 1991 to 2012. Yearly data are expressed both in levels and in changes. The estimation models applied are random effects estimation and fixed effects estimations, both in levels and in first differences. The thesis includes four families of econometric models, each with its own set of robustness checks and specifications. The results qualify the relevance of globalization and economic growth as enabling mechanisms for improving food security in developing countries. Concerning globalization, two main conclusions can be drawn. First, results showed that enhancing foreign private investment in infrastructures contributes to increase agricultural exports. Second, agricultural exports appear to have a negative impact on national food security indicators. These two conclusions suggest that trade and financial openness per se do not contribute directly to improve food security in development countries. Both measures should be accompanied by investments and policies to support the development of national high value productive sectors, to strengthen the domestic economy and reduce its external dependency. Referring to economic growth, despite the unquestionable fact that income growth is a pre-requisite for reducing undernourishment, results suggest that it is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Three additional strategies should accompany economic growth to intensifying its impact on food security. Firstly, it is necessary that income growth should be accompanied by a better distribution of income. Secondly, income growth needs to be followed by investments and policies in health, sanitation and education to improve food security. Even if economic growth falters, sustained improvements in the access to drinking water may still give rise to reductions in the percentage of undernourished people. And thirdly, long-term economic growth appears to have a greater impact on reducing hunger than growth regimes that combine periods of growth peaks followed by troughs. Macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for accelerating food security. Finally, the thesis finds that the developing countries analyzed have experienced different non-linear paths toward improving food security. Results also show that a higher initial level of undernourishment and economic growth result in a faster response for improving food security.

Analysis of the Optimal Sharing of Construction Risk in Public Procurement Contracts

This paper discusses a model based on the agency theory to analyze the optimal transfer of construction risk in public works contracts. The base assumption is that of a contract between a principal (public authority) and an agent (firm), where the payment mechanism is linear and contains an incentive mechanism to enhance the effort of the agent to reduce construction costs. A theoretical model is proposed starting from a cost function with a random component and assuming that both the public authority and the firm are risk averse. The main outcome of the paper is that the optimal transfer of construction risk will be lower when the variance of errors in cost forecast, the risk aversion of the firm and the marginal cost of public funds are larger, while the optimal transfer of construction risk will grow when the variance of errors in cost monitoring and the risk aversion of the public authority are larger