960 resultados para risk variables
Resumo:
Objective To assess how well B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) predicts prognosis in patients with heart failure. Design Systematic review of studies assessing BNP for prognosis m patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients. Data sources Electronic searches of Medline and Embase from January 1994 to March 2004 and reference lists of included studies. Study selection and data extraction We included all studies that estimated the relation between BNP measurement and the risk of death, cardiac death, sudden death, or cardiovascular event in patients with heart failure or asymptomatic patients, including initial values and changes in values in response to treatment. Multivariable models that included both BNP and left ventricular ejection fraction as predictors were used to compare the prognostic value of each variable. Two reviewers independently selected studies and extracted data. Data synthesis 19 studies used BNP to estimate the relative risk of death or cardiovascular events in heart failure patients and five studies in asymptomatic patients. In heart failure patients, each 100 pg/ml increase was associated with a 35% increase in the relative risk of death. BNP was used in 35 multivariable models of prognosis. In nine of the models, it was the only variable to reach significance-that is, other variables contained no prognostic information beyond that of BNP. Even allowing for the scale of the variables, it seems to be a strong indicator of risk. Conclusion Although systematic reviews of prognostic studies have inherent difficulties, including die possibility of publication bias, the results of the studies in this review show that BNP is a strong prognostic indicator for both asymptomatic patients mid for patients with heart failure at all stages of disease.
Resumo:
Study objective: To investigate the effect of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia on serum folate and total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men and women aged 27 to 77 years (n = 468), who were originally randomly selected from the Perth electoral roll. The cohort was surveyed in 1995/96 before widespread introduction of folate fortification of a variety of foods, and followed up on two occasions, firstly in 1998/99 and again in 2001, when a moderate number of folate fortified foods were available. Subjects with abnormal serum creatinine concentrations at baseline were excluded from this analysis. Main results: Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to determine changes in serum folate and tHcy over the three surveys and to assess whether time trends were related to age, sex, MTHFR C677T genotype, or consumption of folate fortified foods. An increase (38%) in mean serum folate (p < 0.0005) and a decrease (21%) in mean tHcy (p < 0.0005) were seen after introduction of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia. Serum folate was consistently higher (p = 0.032) and tHcy was consistently lower (p = 0.001) in subjects who consumed at least one folate fortified food compared with subjects who did not consume any folate fortified foods in the previous week. The time related changes in serum folate and tHcy were affected only by intake of folate fortified foods (p < 0.0005) and not by any other measured variables including age, sex, or MTHFR genotype. Conclusion: Voluntary fortification of foods with folate in Australia has been followed by a substantial increase in serum folate and decrease in tHcy in the general population.
Resumo:
This paper investigates the relationship between suicide rates and prevalence of mental disorder and suicide attempts, across socio-economic status (SES) groups based on area of residence. Australian suicide data (1996-1998) were analysed in conjunction with area-based prevalences of mental disorder derived from the National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (1997). Poisson regression models of suicide risk included age, quintile of area-based SES, urban-rural residence, and country of birth (COB), with males and females analysed separately. Analysis focussed on the association between suicide and prevalences of (ICD-10) affective disorders, anxiety disorders, substance use disorders and suicide attempts by SES group. Prevalences of other psychiatric symptomatology, substance use problems, health service utilisation, stressful life-events and personality were also investigated. Significant increasing gradients were evident from high to low SES groups for prevalences of affective disorders, anxiety disorders (females only), and substance use disorders (males only); sub-threshold drug and alcohol problems and depression; and suicide attempts and suicide (males only). Prevalences of mental disorder, other sub-threshold mental health items and suicide attempts were significantly associated with suicide, but in most cases associations were reduced in magnitude and became statistically non-significant after adjustment for COB, urban-rural residence, and SES. For male suicide the relative risk (RR) in the lowest SES group compared to the highest was 1.40 (95% CI 1.29-1.52, p < 0.001) for all ages, and 1.46 (95% CI 1.27-1.67, p < 0.001) for male youth (20-34 years). This relationship was not substantially modified in males when regression models included prevalences of affective disorders, and other selected mental health variables and demographic factors. From a population perspective, SES remained significantly associated with suicide after controlling for the prevalence of mental disorders and other psychiatric symptomatology. Mental conditions and previous suicidal behaviour may play an intermediary role between SES and suicide, but this study suggests that an independent relationship between suicide and SES also exists. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The risk of breast cancer arises from a combination of genetic susceptibility and environmental factors. Recent studies show that type and duration of use of hormone replacement therapy affect a women's risk of developing breast cancer.1-7 The women's health initiative trial was stopped early because of excess adverse cardiovascular events and invasive breast cancer with oestrogen and progestogen.6 The publicity increased public awareness of the risks of hormone replacement therapy, and this was heightened by the publication of the million women study.2 However, the recently published oestrogen only arm of the women's health initiative trial suggests that this formulation may reduce the risk of breast cancer.8 To help make sense of the often confusing information,9 women and clinicians need individual rather than population risk data. We have produced estimates that can be used to calculate individual risk for women living up to the age of 79 and suggest the risk
Resumo:
Objective. To examine the link between tooth loss and multilevel factors in a national sample of middle-aged adults in Brazil. Material and methods. Analyses were based on the 2003 cross-sectional national epidemiological survey of the oral health of the Brazilian population, which covered 13 431 individuals (age 35-44 years). Multistage cluster sampling was used. The dependent variable was tooth loss and the independent variables were classified according to the individual or contextual level. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was adopted. Results. The average tooth loss was 14 (standard deviation 9.5) teeth. Half of the individuals had lost 12 teeth. The contextual variables showed independent effects on tooth loss. It was found that having 9 years or more of schooling was associated with protection against tooth loss (means ratio range 0.68-0.76). Not having visited the dentist and not having visited in the last >= 3 years accounted for increases of 33.5% and 21.3%, respectively, in the risk of tooth loss (P < 0.05). The increase in tooth extraction ratio showed a strong contextual effect on increased risk of tooth loss, besides changing the effect of protective variables. Conclusions. Tooth loss in middle-aged adults has important associations with social determinants of health. This study points to the importance of the social context as the main cause of oral health injuries suffered by most middle-aged Brazilian adults.
Resumo:
This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Purpose The purpose of this study was to describe the preliminary results of prophylactic temporary balloon occlusion of the internal iliac arteries for bleeding control in patients with placenta accreta during cesarean hysterectomy. Methods From May 2006 to March 2010, 21 patients diagnosed with placenta accreta using ultrasound and/or magnetic resonance imaging were submitted to prophylactic balloon occlusion before hysterectomy. Fluoroscopy, balloon occlusion time, surgical duration, intraoperative blood loss, transfusion volume, and procedure complications were analyzed. Results The mean age was 30.5 years with a mean of 3.6 previous gestations. Imaging studies revealed that all patients had placenta accreta and all were submitted to cesarean hysterectomy. One hysterectomy was due to previous diagnosis of fetal death and another due to cesarean with uterine curettage. Mean fluoroscopy time was 7.5 min, balloon occlusion time was 164 min, and surgery duration was 260 min. Estimated blood loss was 1,671.5 ml with mean reposition fluids of 3,538 ml of crystalloids, 309.5 ml of colloids, and 1.24 ml of packed red blood cells. Two patients were submitted to thromboembolectomy due to prolonged surgical time. There was no maternal or fetal mortality related to the procedure. Conclusions The results demonstrated that prophylactic balloon occlusion of internal iliac artery is a safe method and appears to reduce blood loss and transfusion requirements in patients diagnosed with placenta accreta who undergo cesarean hysterectomy. Antenatal imaging diagnosis of placenta accreta enables preoperative planning.
Resumo:
Purpose: Although gastrointestinal motility disorders are common in critically ill patients, constipation and its implications have received very little attention. We aimed to determine the incidence of constipation to find risk factors and its implications in critically ill patients Materials and Methods: During a 6-month period, we enrolled all patients admitted to an intensive care unit from an universitary hospital who stayed 3 or more days. Patients submitted to bowel surgery were excluded. Results: Constipation occurred in 69.9% of the patients. There was no difference between constipated and not constipated in terms of sex, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, type of admission (surgical, clinical, or trauma), opiate use, antibiotic therapy, and mechanical ventilation. Early (<24 hours) enteral nutrition was associated with less constipation, a finding that persisted at multivariable analysis (P < .01). Constipation was not associated with greater intensive care unit or mortality, length of stay, or days free from mechanical ventilation. Conclusions: Constipation is very common among critically ill patients. Early enteral nutrition is associated with earlier return of bowel function. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between ductus venosus (DV) Doppler velocimetry and fetal cardiac troponin T (cTnT). Study design: Between March 2007 and March 2008, 89 high-risk pregnancies were prospectively studied. All patients delivered by cesarean section and the Doppler exams were performed on the same day. Multiple regression included the following variables: maternial age, parity, hypertension, diabetes, gestational age at delivery, umbilical artery (UA) S/D ratio, diagnosis of absent or reversed end-diastolic flow velocity (AREDV) in the UA, middle cerebral artery (MCA) pulsatility index (131), and DV pulsatility index for veins (PIV). Immediately after delivery, UA blood samples were obtained for the measurement of pH and cTnT levels. Statistical analysis included the Kruskal-Wallis test and multiple regressions. Results: The results showed a cTnT concentration at birth >0.05 ng/ml in nine (81.8%) of AREDV cases, a proportion significantly higher than that observed in normal UA S/D ratio and UA S/D ratio >p95 with positive diastolic blood flow (7.7 and 23.1%, respectively, p < 0.001). A positive correlation Was found between abnormal DV-PIV and elevated cTnT levels in the UA. Multiple regression identified DV-PIV and a diagnosis of AREDV as independent factors associated with abnormal fetal cTnT levels (p < 0.0001, F(2.86) = 63.5, R = 0.7722). Conclusion: DV-PIV was significantly correlated with fetal cTnT concentrations at delivery. AREDV and abnormal DV flow represent severe cardiac compromise, with increased systemic venous pressure, and a rise in right ventricular afterload, demonstrated by myocardial damage and elevated fetal cTnT. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Purpose: To evaluate the risk of geographic miss associated with the classic four-field ""box"" irradiation technique and to define the variables that predict this risk. Materials and Methods: The study population consisted of 80 patients with uterine cervix cancer seen between 2001 and 2006. Median age was 55 years (23-82 years), and 72 (90%) presented with squamous cell carcinoma. Most patients (68.7%) presented with locally advanced disease (IIb or more). Magnetic resonance imaging findings from before treatment were compared with findings from simulation of the conventional four-field ""box"" technique done with rectal contrast. Study variables included tumor volume; involvement of vagina, parametrium, bladder, or rectum; posterior displacement of the anterior rectal wall; and tumor anteroposterior diameter (APD). Margins were considered adequate when the target volume (primary tumor extension, whole uterine body, and parametrium) was included within the field limits and were at least 1 cm in width. Results: Field limits were inadequate in 45 (56%) patients: 29 (36%) patients at the anterior and 28 (35%) at the posterior border of the lateral fields. Of these, 12 patients had both anterior and posterior miss, and this risk was observed in all stages of the disease (p = 0.076). Posterior displacement of the anterior rectal wall beyond S2-S3 was significantly correlated with the risk of geographic miss (p = 0.043). Larger tumors (APD 6 cm or above and volume above 50 cm(3)) were also significantly correlated with this risk (p = 0.004 and p = 0.046, respectively). Conclusions: Posterior displacement of the anterior rectal wall, tumor APD, and volume can be used as guidance in evaluating the risk of geographic miss. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc.
Resumo:
Numerous studies have documented increased breast cancer risks with hormone replacement therapy (HRT), but these do not give a woman her specific absolute risk for the remainder of her life. This article estimates the magnitude of the effect of HRT on breast cancer incidence in California and calculates a woman's cumulative risk of breast cancer with different formulations and durations of HRT use. The effects of HRT on the underlying breast cancer incidence were estimated using the attributable fraction method, applying HRT prevalence data from the 2001 California Health Interview Survey and published rates of higher relative risk (RR) from HRT use from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study and Million Women's Survey (MWS). The annual number of breast cancers potentially attributable to HRT in California was estimated, along with individual cumulative risk of breast cancer for various ages to 79 years according to HRT use, duration, and formulation. Using the WHI data, 829 of 19,000 breast cancers (4.3%) in California may be attributable to HRT This figure increases to 3401 (17.4%) when the MWS RRs are applied. Use of estrogen-only HRT or short-term (approximately 5 years) use of combined HRT has a minimal effect on the cumulative risk calculated to the age of 79 years; application of the MWS data to a Californian woman commencing HRT at the age of 50 years (no HRT, 8.5%; estrogen only, 8.6%; combined, 9.1%). Prolonged (approximately 10 years) use of combined HRT increases the cumulative risk to 10.3%. This article demonstrates that HRT will generate a small additional risk of breast cancer in an individual. The reduction in perimenopausal symptoms may be considered sufficient to warrant this extra risk. However, this view needs to be balanced because the small increases in individual risk will be magnified, producing a noticeable change in population cancer caseload where HRT use is high.