WinBUGS code to run a network meta-analysis

WinBUGS code and data to reproduce our network meta-analysis from "Control strategies to prevent total hip replacement-related infections: a systematic review and mixed treatment comparison" published in BMJ Open.

Australian Timber Pole Resources for Energy Networks. A review

More than 5 million timber utility poles are currently in-service throughout Australia’s energy networks. Most were produced from select native forest-grown hardwood species having the required structural characteristics and naturally-durable heartwood. Anecdotal evidence suggests that up to 70% of the timber poles that are currently in-service were installed over the 20 years following the end of World War Two, and these poles are likely to require replacement or remedial maintenance over the next decade. The purposes of this review were to clarify the supply and demand situation for traditional timber poles, and to investigate alternatives in terms of their potential availability and suitability.

Simulation of parthenium weed canopy under changing climate using L-systems

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an erect, branched, annual plant of the family Asteraceae. It is native to the tropical Americas, while now widely distributed throughout Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Australasia. Due to its allelopathic and toxic characteristics, parthenium weed has been considered to be a weed of global significance. These effects occur across agriculture (crops and pastures), within natural ecosystems, and has impacts upon health (human and animals). Although integrated weed management (IWM) for parthenium weed has had some success, due to its tolerance and good adaptability to temperature, precipitation, and CO2, this weed has been predicted to become more vigorous under a changing climate resulting in an altered canopy architecture. From the viewpoint of IWM, the altered canopy architecture may be associated with not only improved competitive ability and replacement but also may alter the effectiveness of biocontrol agents and other management strategies. This paper reports on a preliminary study on parthenium weed canopy architecture at three temperature regimes (day/night 22/15 °C, 27/20 °C, and 32/25 °C in thermal time 12/12 hours) and establishes a threedimensional (3D) canopy model using Lindenmayer-systems (L-systems). This experiment was conducted in a series of controlled environment rooms with parthenium weed plants being grown in a heavy clay soil. A sonic digitizer system was used to record the morphology, topology, and geometry of the plants for model construction. The main findings include the determination of the phyllochron which enables the prediction of parthenium weed growth under different temperature regimes and that increased temperature enhances growth and enlarges the plants canopy size and structure. The developed 3D canopy model provides a tool to simulate and predict the weed growth in response to temperature, and can be adjusted for studies of other climatic variables such as precipitation and CO2. Further studies are planned to investigate the effects of other climatic variables, and the predicted changes in the pathogenic biocontrol agent effectiveness.

The molecular basis of Marinesco-Sjögren syndrome

Marinesco-Sjögren syndrome (MSS) is a rare autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by cerebellar ataxia due to cerebellar cortical atrophy, infantile- or childhood-onset bilateral cataracts, progressive myopathy, and mild to severe mental retardation. Additional features include hypergonadotropic hypogonadism, various skeletal abnormalities, short stature, and strabismus. The neuroradiologic hallmarks are hypoplasia of both the vermis and cerebellar hemispheres. The histopathologic findings include severe cerebellar atrophy and loss of Purkinje and granule cells. The common pathologic findings in muscle biopsy are variation in muscle fiber size, atrophic fibers, fatty replacement, and rimmed vacuole formation. The presence of marked cerebellar atrophy with myopathy distinguishes MSS from another rare syndrome, the congenital cataracts, facial dysmorphism, and neuropathy syndrome (CCFDN). Previously, work by others had resulted in the identification of an MSS locus on chromosome 5q31. A subtype of MSS with myoglobinuria and neuropathy had been linked to the CCFDN locus on chromosome 18qter, at which mutations in the CTDP1 gene had been identified. We confirmed linkage to the previously identified locus on chromosome 5q31 in two Finnish families with eight affected individuals, reduced the critical region by fine-mapping, and identified SIL1 as a gene underlying MSS. We found a common homozygous founder mutation in all Finnish patients. The same mutation was also present in patient samples from Norway and Sweden. Altogether, we identified eight mutations in SIL1, including nonsense, frameshift, splice site alterations, and one missense mutation. SIL1 encodes a nucleotide exchange factor for the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) resident heat-shock protein 70 chaperone GRP78. GRP78 functions in protein synthesis and quality control of the newly synthesized polypeptides. It senses and responds to stressful cellular conditions. We showed that in mice, SIL1 and GRP78 show highly similar spatial and temporal tissue expression in developing and mature brain, eye, and muscle. Studying endogenous proteins in mouse primary hippocampal neurons, we found that SIL1 and GRP78 colocalize and that SIL1 localizes to the ER. We studied the subcellular localization of two mutant proteins, a missense mutant found in two patients and an artificial mutant lacking the ER retrieval signal, and found that both mutant proteins formed aggregates within the ER. Well in line with our findings and the clinical features of MSS, recent work by Zhao et al. showed that a truncation of SIL1 causes ataxia and cerebellar Purkinje cell loss in the naturally occurring woozy mutant mouse. Prior to Purkinje cell degeneration, the unfolded protein response is initiated and abnormal protein accumulations are present. MSS thus joins the group of protein misfolding and accumulation diseases. These findings highlight the importance of SIL1 and the role of the ER in neuronal function and survival. The results presented in this thesis provide tools for the molecular genetic diagnostics of MSS and give a basis for future studies on the molecular pathogenesis of MSS. Understanding the mechanisms behind this pleiotropic syndrome may provide insights into more common forms of ataxia, myopathy, and neurodegeneration.

The level of FoxO1 and IL-15 in skeletal muscle, serum and synovial fluid in people with knee osteoarthritis: a case control study

Objectives Impaired muscle function is common in knee osteoarthritis (OA). Numerous biochemical molecules have been implicated in the development of OA; however, these have only been identified in the joint and serum. This study compared the expression of interleukin (IL-15) and Forkhead box protein-O1 (FoxO1) in muscle of patients with knee OA asymptomatic individuals, and examined whether IL-15 was also present in the joint and serum. Method Muscle and blood samples were collected from 19 patients with diagnosed knee OA and 10 age-matched asymptomatic individuals. Synovial fluid and muscle biopsies were collected from the OA group during knee replacement surgery. IL-15 and FoxO1were measured in the skeletal muscle. IL-15 abundance was also analysed in the serum of both groups and synovial fluid from the OA group. Knee extensor strength was measured and correlated with IL-15 and FoxO1 in the muscle. Results FoxO1 protein expression was higher (p=0.04), whereas IL-15 expression was lower (p=0.02) in the muscle of the OA group. Strength was also lower in the OA group, and was inversely correlated with FoxO1 expression. No correlation was found between IL-15 in the joint, muscle or serum. Conclusion Skeletal muscle, particularly the quadriceps, is affected in people with knee OA where elevated FoxO1 protein expression was associated with reduced muscle strength. While IL-15 protein expression in the muscle was lower in the knee OA group, no correlation was found between the expression of IL-15 protein in the muscle, joint and serum, which suggests that inflammation is regulated differently within these tissues.

Corymbia leaf oils, latitude, hybrids and herbivory: a test using common-garden field trials

Foliar oils, particularly monoterpenes, can influence the susceptibility of plants to herbivory. In plants, including eucalypts, monoterpenes are often associated with plant defence. A recent analysis revealed an increase in foliar oil content with increasing latitudinal endemism, and we tested this pattern using three eucalypt taxa comprising a latitudinal replacement cline. We also examined the relative concentrations of two monoterpenes (alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole), for which meta-analyses also showed latitudinal variation, using hybrids of these three taxa with Corymbia torelliana. These, and pure C. torelliana, were then assessed in common-garden field plots for the abundance and distribution of herbivory by four distinct herbivore taxa. Differing feeding strategies among these herbivores allowed us to test hypotheses regarding heritability of susceptibility and relationships to alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole. We found no support for an increase in foliar oil content with increasing latitude, nor did our analysis support predictions for consistent variation in alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole contents with latitude. However, herbivore species showed differential responses to different taxa and monoterpene contents. For example, eriophyid mites, the most monophagous of our censused herbivores, avoided the pure species, but fed on hybrid taxa, supporting hypotheses on hybrid susceptibility. The most polyphagous herbivore (leaf blister sawfly Phylacteophaga froggatti) showed no evidence of response to plant secondary metabolites, while the distribution and abundance patterns of Paropsis atomaria showed some relationship to monoterpene yields.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Trends in US contact lens prescribing 2002-2014

Purpose To document contact lens prescribing patterns in the United States between 2002 and 2014. Methods A survey of contact lens prescribing trends was conducted each year between 2002 and 2014, inclusive. Randomly selected contact lens practitioners were asked to provide information relating to 10 consecutive contact lens fits between January and March each year. Results Over the 13-year survey period, 1650 survey forms were received from US practitioners representing details of 7702 contact lens fits. The mean (±SD) age of lens wearers was 33.6 (±15.2) years, of whom 65.2% were female. Rigid lens new fits decreased from 13.0% in 2002 to 9.4% in 2014. Across this period, silicone hydrogels have replaced mid water contact lens hydrogels as the soft lens material of choice. Toric lenses represented about 25 to 30% of all soft lens fits. Multifocal soft lenses are generally preferred to monovision. Daily disposable lens fits have recently increased, and in 2014, they represented 27.1% of all soft lens fits. Most lenses are prescribed on 1 to 2 weekly or monthly lens replacement regimen. Extended wear remains a minority lens wearing modality. The vast majority of those wearing reusable lenses use multipurpose lens care solutions. Lenses are mostly worn 7 d/wk. Conclusions This survey has revealed prescribing trends and preferences in the United States over the past 13 years.

Chlorination of silver dosed with potassium and barium in presence of oxygen: An X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy study

XPS studies show that the presence of chemisorbed chlorine stabilizes and also enhances molecular dioxygen species on Ag surfaces dosed with either K or Ba. The surface atomic oxygen is found to become depleted on chlorination. The variation in the nature of surface species with respect to temperature shows chlorine-induced diffusion of atomic oxygen into the subsurface region at 300 K. For coverages of potassium up to 8 × 1014 atoms/cm2, preferential chloridation of Ag occurs while at higher potassium coverages, KCl formation is distinctly observed on the surface. In the case of barium, two types of adsorbed chlorine species, Cl(α) and Cl(β), associated with Ag and Ba, respectively, are clearly seen even at low barium coverages. This is believed to be due to the higher valence occupation of barium compared to potassium. The Cl(α) species associated with Ag is found to occupy a preferred site on both K- and Ba-dosed surfaces, involving chemisorptive replacement of O(α) to the subsurface region.

The Colletotrichum boninense species complex

Although only recently described, Colletotrichum boninense is well established in literature as an anthracnose pathogen or endophyte of a diverse range of host plants worldwide. It is especially prominent on members of Amaryllidaceae, Orchidaceae, Proteaceae and Solanaceae. Reports from literature and preliminary studies using ITS sequence data indicated that C. boninense represents a species complex. A multilocus molecular phylogenetic analysis (ITS, ACT, TUB2, CHS-1, GAPDH, HIS3, CAL) of 86 strains previously identified as C. boninense and other related strains revealed 18 clades. These clades are recognised here as separate species, including C. boninense s. str., C. hippeastri, C. karstii and 12 previously undescribed species, C. annellatum, C. beeveri, C. brassicicola, C. brasiliense, C. colombiense, C. constrictum, C. cymbidiicola, C. dacrycarpi, C. novae-zelandiae, C. oncidii, C. parsonsiae and C. torulosum. Seven of the new species are only known from New Zealand, perhaps reflecting a sampling bias. The new combination C. phyllanthi was made, and C. dracaenae Petch was epitypified and the name replaced with C. petchii. Typical for species of the C. boninense species complex are the conidiogenous cells with rather prominent periclinal thickening that also sometimes extend to form a new conidiogenous locus or annellations as well as conidia that have a prominent basal scar. Many species in the C. boninense complex form teleomorphs in culture. TAXONOMIC NOVELTIES: New combination - Colletotrichum phyllanthi (H. Surendranath Pai) Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous. Name replacement - C. petchii Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous. New species - C. annellatum Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. beeveri Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. brassicicola Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. brasiliense Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous & Massola, C. colombiense Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, C. constrictum Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. cymbidiicola Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. dacrycarpi Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. novae-zelandiae Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. oncidii Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. parsonsiae Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. torulosum Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir. Typifications: Epitypifications - C. dracaenae Petch.

International contact lens prescribing in 2015

We have been collecting data on worldwide contact lens prescribing habits for almost 20 years. Over this time period, we have amassed prospective information about 315,000 contact lens fits in 59 countries. This article marks our 15th report in Contact Lens Spectrum and features a breakdown of more than 23,000 contact lens fits in 34 markets. As in previous years, our international network of coordinators distributed survey forms to eyecare practitioners in their market who then recorded generic information about the first 10 patients fit with contact lenses after receipt. Information is gathered about patient age and gender; whether the contact lenses are prescribed as a new fit or a refit; contact lens material, design, and replacement frequency; number of intended days per week of use; wearing modality; and care system. Contact lens fits are weighted to reflect the number of fits undertaken by each eyecare practitioner. The study data were entered and processed at the University of Manchester and at the University of Waterloo.

Structural Veneer Based Composite Products from Hardwood Thinning - Part II: Testing of Hollow Utility Poles

Australian utility pole network is aging and reaching its end of life, with 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II. The estimated investment required for the replacement or remedial maintenance of the aging 3.5 millions poles is as high as 1.75 billion dollars. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year, representing further investment of 13.5 million dollars per year. Yet, agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia have been signed, giving the industry about 25 years to make the transition from Crown native forests to plantations and private forests. As utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species, finding solutions to source new poles currently presents a challenge. This paper presents tests on Veneer Based Composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinning. Small diameter poles of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 veneers per halfpole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles cut from mature trees and of similar size. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. © RILEM 2014.

Theoretical studies on penicillins, penicillin sulphones and their 1-oxa-1-dethia and 1-carba-1-dethia analogues: binding specificities of transeptidases and penicillinases

Empirical potential energy calculations have been carried out to determine the preferred conformations of penicillins and penicillin sulphones and their 1-oxa-1-dethia and 1-carba-1-dethia analogues. With the exception of 1-oxa-1-dethia penicillins, all the other compounds favour C2 and the C3 puckered conformations of their five-membered rings. Replacement of C2 methyl groups by hydrogen atoms as in bisnorpenicillin V or oxidation of sulphur in position 1 as in sulphones, makes the C3 puckered form much less favourable. Addition of an amino-acyl group at the C6 atom, however, makes the C3 puckered form more favoured in penicillin G or V and in 1-carba-1-dethia penicillins. Through the replacement of the sulphur atom at position 1 by an oxygen atom or by a -CH2 group increases the non-planarity of the lactam peptide bond, it significantly affects the relative disposition of the C3 carboxyl group with respect to the β-lactam ring. These conformational differences have been correlated with the biological activities of these compounds. The present study suggests that the conformation of the bicyclic ring system may be more important for initial binding with the crosslinking enzyme(s) involved in the biosynthesis of bacterial cell-wall peptidoglycan and that the mode of binding is influenced by the nature of the side-group at the C6 atom. These studies predict, in agreement with experimental results, that the 1-oxa-1-dethia penicillin nulceus is an inhibitor of penicillianses. The study also suggests that the stereospecificities of the crosslinking enzyme(s) and penicillinases are very similar with regard to the nature of the side-group at the 6 atom and the confirmation of the bicyclic ring system. However, the confirmational requirement for the bicyclic ring system appears to be more specific in the former enzyme than in the latter.

ESR study of metal ion-guanosine monophosphate interaction

The addition of guanosine 5-monophosphate (5′-GMP) to an aqueous solution of Mn2+ ions results in a decrease in ESR signal intensity and an increase in line-width of Mn2+ ions. This can be interpreted in terms of stepwise formation of outersphere and inner-sphere complexes as When Mg2+ is added to a mixture of Mn2+ and 5′-GMP, ESR signal intensity increases, presumably due to the replacement of Mn2+ by Mg2+ in the complex. From the variation of ESR signal intensity as a function of concentration of Mg2+, the product K1K2 for the magnesium complex i s calculated as 125 M−1. This difference in stability constants may indicate that both phosphate group and guanine base are involved in the formation of Mn2+-5′-GMP complex.