Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Sexual offences against children: An exploration of attrition in the Northern Ireland criminal justice system

Objective: This paper uses data provided by the Police Service for Northern Ireland (PSNI) to compare the characteristics and outcomes of reported sexual offences involving child and adult victims and explore the factors associated with case outcomes.
Method: PSNI provided data on 8,789 sexual offences recorded between April 2001 and March 2006. Case outcomes were based on whether a case was recorded by police as having sufficient evidence to summons, charge, or caution an offender (detected). Where an offender was summonsed, charged, or cautioned, this is classified as detection with a formal sanction. A case can also be classified as "detected" without a formal sanction. The analysis focused on two key categories of detection without formal sanction: cases in which the police deem there to be sufficient evidence to charge an offender but took no further action because the victim did not wish to prosecute, or because the police or the Public Prosecution Service (PPS) decided that no useful purpose would be served by proceeding.
Results: The analysis confirmed that the characteristics of recorded sexual offences involving adult and child victims vary significantly according to gender, offence type, the timing of report and victim-offender relationship. Almost half of child sex abuse cases are not detected by police and a quarter do not proceed through the criminal justice system because either the victim declines to prosecute or the Police/PPS decide not to proceed. Only one in five child cases involved detection with a formal sanction. Child groups with lower detection with formal sanction rates included children under 5, teenagers, those who do not report when the abuse occurs but disclose at a later date; and those who experience abuse at the hands of peers and adults known to them but not related. The analysis also highlighted variation in formal sanction rates depending on where the offence was reported.
Conclusions: Consideration needs to be given to improving the criminal justice response to specific child groups as well as monitoring detection rates in different police areas in order to address potential practice variation.
Practice implications: Consideration needs to be given to improving the professional response in relation to with particularly lower detection with formal sanction rates. There is also a need to monitor case outcomes to ensure that child victims in different areas receive a similar service.

A ten year retrospective audit of clinical psychology referrals within a paediatric CF team

Objective: This retrospective audit was undertaken to explore the nature of referrals made by the paediatric CF team to the Clinical Psychologist over a period of 10 years. The aim of the audit was to identify patterns or trends related to difficulties referred by the team.
Methods: A database consisting of all referrals received over a ten year period from 2001-2010 was created. A coding template was then created by KR and AC, which allowed for the categorisation of referrals into three main themes: Mood disturbance; CF related events; and non-CF related events. The same coding template was used to categorise referrals to the adult CF service. Descriptive statistics were used to interpret the data.
Results: Over the ten year period, 106 young people with CF were referred to psychology, representing 266 referrals. On average, a referral was made every two weeks. The most common reason for referral was for CF related events (i.e. adherence, living everyday life with CF). Referrals were found to increase with age. Both genders were equally likely to be referred, with females being re-referred most frequently, indicating increased psychological morbidity. The majority of referrals (79%) were repeat referrals, indicating that psychology input is focused upon a small number of young people but over a period of time. In a typical year (09-10), only 16% of all young people with CF were able to access psychology services. Conclusion: This audit identified patterns related to inequality of access, gender differences, and the identification of common concerns across age groups. The audit also highlighted areas where early intervention and training efforts could be targeted.

Total Addiction:The Life of an Eclipse Chaser

Seeing a total solar eclipse is often described as a once-in-a-lifetime experience. However, for many who have experienced totality, once-in-a-lifetime is simply not enough. They want more, and are willing to go to great lengths often at great expense to repeat the experience. What is it like to experience totality? What is it about the experience that motivates these eclipse chasers? Is there an eclipse chaser personality? Can eclipse chasing actually be described as an addiction? This book describes the people who dedicate their lives to chasing their dream.

The influence of the new general ophthalmic services (GOS) contract in optometrist referrals for glaucoma in Scotland

Purpose: To assess the quality of referrals from community optometrists in the northeast of Scotland to the hospital glaucoma service before and after the implementation of the new General Ophthalmic Services (GOS) contract in Scotland. Methods: Retrospective study encompassing two 6-month periods, one before the implementation of the new GOS (Scotland) contract in April 2006 (from June to November 2005), and the other after (from June to November 2006). The community optometrist referral forms and hospital glaucoma service notes were reviewed. Comparisons were performed using the t-test and ?- test. Results: In all, 183 referrals were made during the first 6-month period from June to November 2005, and 120 referrals were made during the second 6-month period from June to November 2006. After the introduction of the new GOS contract, there was a statistically significant increase in true-positive referrals (from 18.0 to 31.7%; P=0.006), decrease in false-positive referrals (from 36.6 to 31.7%; P=0.006), and increase in the number of referrals with information on applanation tonometry (from 11.8 to 50.0%; P=0.000), dilated fundal examination (from 2.2 to 24.2%; P=0.000), and repeat visual fields (from 14.8 to 28.3%; P=0.004) when compared to the first 6-month period. However, only 41.7% of referrals fulfilled the new GOS contract requirements, with information on applanation tonometry the most commonly missing. Conclusions: After the implementation of the new GOS (Scotland) contract in April 2006, there has been an improvement in the quality of the glaucoma referrals from the community optometrists in the northeast of Scotland, with a corresponding reduction in false-positive referrals. Despite the relatively positive effect so far, there is still scope for further improvement. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved.

The short-term effect of topical dorzolamide compared with placebo on perimetry testing in normal subjects

Purpose. To study the effect of topical dorzolamide on retinal sensitivity in normal subjects. Methods. 20 normal subjects were prospectively randomized in a two period crossover study. Baseline threshold perimetry (HVF, program 24-2, Statpac analysis) was obtained. The study eye was randomly chosen and then was randomly assigned to receive either dorzolamide 2% or placebo one hour before repeat HVF. After at least two weeks washout the same eye was given the opposite drop one hour prior to repeat HVF. Global indices were compared using a paired T-test. Results. AFTER PLACEBO AFTER DORZOLAMIDE P-VALUE (mean±SD) (mean±SD) MD 0.12±1.4 0.16±1.4 0.82 PSD 1.83±0.6 1.66±0.4 0.04 SF 1.28±0.4 1.24±0.2 0.73 CPSD 1.05±0.9 0.84±0.6 0.35 Conclusion. In this population, topical dorzolamide had little effect on visual function.

Serial chimerism analyses indicate that mixed haemopoietic chimerism influences the probability of graft rejection and disease recurrence following allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA): indication for routine assessment of chimerism post SCT for SAA

Ninety-one patients were studied serially for chimeric status following allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) for severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) or Fanconi Anaemia (FA). Short tandem repeat polymerase chain reaction (STR-PCR) was used to stratify patients into five groups: (A) complete donor chimeras (n = 39), (B) transient mixed chimeras (n = 15) (C) stable mixed chimeras (n = 18), (D) progressive mixed chimeras (n = 14) (E) recipient chimeras with early graft rejection (n = 5). As serial sampling was not possible in Group E, serial chimerism results for 86 patients were available for analysis. The following factors were analysed for association with chimeric status: age, sex match, donor type, aetiology of aplasia, source of stem cells, number of cells engrafted, conditioning regimen, graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) prophylaxis, occurrence of acute and chronic GvHD and survival. Progressive mixed chimeras (PMCs) were at high risk of late graft rejection (n = 10, P <0.0001). Seven of these patients lost their graft during withdrawal of immunosuppressive therapy. STR-PCR indicated an inverse correlation between detection of recipient cells post-SCT and occurrence of acute GvHD (P = 0.008). PMC was a bad prognostic indicator of survival (P = 0.003). Monitoring of chimeric status during cyclosporin withdrawal may facilitate therapeutic intervention to prevent late graft rejection in patients transplanted for SAA.

Molecular dynamics simulation of nanoindentation of Fe3C and tetrahedral Fe4C

Study of nanomechanical response of iron carbides is important because presence of iron carbides greatly influences the performance and longevity of steel components. This work contributes to the literature by exploring nanoindentation of nanocrystalline Fe3C and tetrahedral-Fe4C using molecular dynamics simulation. The chemical interactions of iron and carbon were described through an analytical bond order inter-atomic potential (ABOP) energy function. The indentations were performed at an indentation speed of 50 m/sec and a repeat trial was performed at 5 m/sec. Load-displacement (P-h) curve for both these carbides showed residual indentation depth and maximum indentation depth (hf/hmax) ratio to be higher than 0.7 i.e. a circumstance where Oliver and Pharr method was not appropriate to be applied to evaluate the material properties. Alternate evaluation revealed Fe3C to be much harder than Fe4C. Gibbs free energy of formation and radial distribution function, coupled with state of the average local temperature and von Mises stresses indicate the formation of a new phase of iron-carbide. Formation of this newer phase was found to be due to deviatoric strain rather than the high temperature induced in the substrate during nanoindentation

The changing university business model: a stakeholder perspective

Universities are in a current state of transition, whereby they are expected to develop a wide range of relationships with stakeholders in order to enhance regional innovation systems. However, despite external environmental pressures commonly regarded as one of the main drivers of business model evolution, there is a lack of studies that explore business model innovation as a result of multiple stakeholder influences. Accordingly, the aim of this paper is to examine the changing university business model within a region of the United Kingdom, using a stakeholder perspective that will aid theoretical development and refinement in both the business model and stakeholder fields. This examination is aided by consideration of the university business model as an activity system. Repeat interviews, combined with stakeholder theory, have been used to show how the changing university business model–stakeholder relationship has progressed through different stakeholder stages with resultant changes in content, structure and governance. Furthermore, conflicting objectives between each of the stakeholder groups (i.e. academics, industry liaison staff, technology transfer office staff and government support agency representatives) have led to the university business model evolving not as a process of co-creation but rather in a series of transitions whereby multiple stakeholders are continually shaping the university business model through strategies that are dependent upon their salience. Finally, this paper contributes to the development and refinement of business model innovation research, in that the use of stakeholder constructs can illustrate the impact of multiple stakeholders' power and influence on business model innovation.

Modification of Fluorescent Photoinduced Electron Transfer (PET) Sensors/Switches To Produce Molecular Photo-Ionic Triode Action

The fluorophore-spacer₁-receptor₁-spacer₂-receptor₂ system (where receptor₂ alone is photoredox-inactive) shows ionically tunable proton-induced fluorescence off-on switching, which is reminiscent of thermionic triode behavior. This also represents a new extension to modular switch systems based on photoinduced electron transfer (PET) towards the emulation of analogue electronic devices.

Interpretation of electrochemical measurements made during micro-scale abrasion-corrosion

This paper brings together and analyzes recent work based on the interpretation of the electrochemical measurements made on a modified micro-abrasion-corrosion tester used in several research programmes. These programmes investigated the role of abradant size, test solution pH in abrasion-corrosion of biomaterials, the abrasion-corrosion performance of sintered and thermally sprayed tungsten carbide surfaces under downhole drilling environments and the abrasion-corrosion of UNS S32205 duplex stainless steel. Various abrasion tests were conducted under two-body grooving, three-body rolling and mixed grooving-rolling abrasion conditions, with and without abrasives, on cast F75 cobalt-chromium-molybdenum (CoCrMo) alloy in simulated body fluids, 2205 in chloride containing solutions as well as sprayed and sintered tungsten carbide surfaces in simulated downhole fluids. Pre- and post-test inspections based on optical and scanning electron microscopy analysis are used to help interpret the electrochemical response and current noise measurements made in situ during micro-abrasion-corrosion tests. The complex wear and corrosion mechanisms and their dependence on the microstructure and surface composition as a function of the pH, abrasive concentration, size and type are detailed and linked to the electrochemical signals. The electrochemical versus mechanical processes are plotted for different test parameters and this new approach is used to interpret tribo-corrosion test data to give greater insights into different tribo-corrosion systems. Thus new approaches to interpreting in-situ electrochemical responses to surfaces under different abrasive wear rates, different abrasives and liquid environments (pH and NaCl levels) are made. This representation is directly related to the mechano-electrochemical processes on the surface and avoids quantification of numerous synergistic, antagonistic and additive terms associated with repeat experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards an understanding of bacterial metabolites prodigiosin and violacein and their potential for use in commercial sunscreens

Synopsis
Objectives

To exploit the microbial ecology of bacterial metabolite production and, specifically, to: (i) evaluate the potential use of the pigments prodigiosin and violacein as additives to commercial sunscreens for protection of human skin, and (ii) determine antioxidant and antimicrobial activities (against pathogenic bacteria) for these two pigments.

Methods
Prodigiosin and violacein were used to supplement extracts of Aloe vera leaf and Cucumis sativus (cucumber) fruit which are known to have photoprotective activity, as well as some commercial sunscreen preparations. For each, sunscreen protection factors (SPFs) were determined spectrophotometrically. Assays for antimicrobial activity were carried out using 96-well plates to quantify growth inhibition of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli.
Results
For the plant extracts, SPFs were increased by an order of magnitude (i.e. up to ~3.5) and those for the commercial sunscreens increased by 10–22% (for 4% w/w violacein) and 20–65% (for 4% w/w prodigiosin). The antioxidant activities of prodigiosin and violacein were approximately 30% and 20% those of ascorbic acid (a well-characterized, potent antioxidant). Violacein inhibited S. aureus (IC_{506.99 ± 0.146 μM) but not E. coli, whereas prodigiosin was effective against both of these bacteria (IC50 values were 0.68 ± 0.06 μM and 0.53 ± 0.03 μM, respectively).}

Conclusion
The bacterial pigments prodigiosin and violacein exhibited antioxidant and antimicrobial activities and were able to increase the SPF of commercial sunscreens as well as the extracts of the two plant species tested. These pigments have potential as ingredients for a new product range of and, indeed, represent a new paradigm for sunscreens that utilize substances of biological origin. We discussed the biotechnological potential of these bacterial metabolites for use in commercial sunscreens, and the need for studies of mammalian cells to determine safety.

Hirschsprung's disease prevalence in Europe: A register based study

Background: Hirschsprung's disease is a congenital gut motility disorder, characterised by the absence of the enteric ganglion cells along the distal gut. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of Hirschsprung's disease, including additional congenital anomalies, total prevalence, trends, and association with maternal age. Methods: Cases of Hirschsprung's disease delivered during 1980 to 2009 notified to 31 European Surveillance of Congenital Anomaly registers formed the population-based case-series. Prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated as the number of cases per 10,000 births. Multilevel Poisson regression was performed to investigate trends in prevalence, geographical variation and the association with maternal age. Results: There were 1,322 cases of Hirschsprung's disease among 12,146,210 births. The total prevalence was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.15) per 10,000 births and there was a small but significant increase in prevalence over time (relative risk = 1.01; 95% credible interval, 1.00–1.02; p = 0.004). There was evidence of geographical heterogeneity in prevalence (p < 0.001). Excluding 146 (11.0%) cases with chromosomal anomalies or genetic syndromes, there were 1,176 cases (prevalence = 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–1.03 per 10,000 births), of which 137 (11.6%) had major structural anomalies. There was no evidence of a significant increased risk of Hirschsprung's disease in cases born to women aged ≥35 years compared with those aged 25 to 29 (relative risk = 1.09; 95% credible interval, 0.91–1.31; p = 0.355). Conclusion: This large population-based study found evidence of a small increasing trend in Hirschsprung's disease and differences in prevalence by geographic location. There was also no evidence of an association with maternal age.

Risk, Regulation and the Reintegration of Sexual Offenders

Media reporting of and public concern about sexual offending, particularly relating to children, affects and reflects political, policy and organisational responses to those convicted of such crimes. The development of regulatory policies on sexual offending has taken place within a highly emotive and overtly politicized public and policy discourse. This chapter charts the various ways in which the risks imagined or posed by sexual offenders have been conceptualised within public discourses and regulated and managed under the legislative and organisational ‘risk paradigm.’ Ultimately, it argues that risk-based responses to sexual offending are at best uncertain in their effects and at worst counterproductive, in that they often reduce the potential for successful reintegration. In seeking to look ‘beyond risk’, the chapter also explores the usefulness of restorative and related practices in supporting sex offender reintegration aimed at the primary and secondary levels of harm prevention.

Small leucine rich proteoglycan family regulates multiple signalling pathways in neural development and maintenance

The small leucine-rich repeat proteoglycan (SLRPs) family of proteins currently consists of five classes, based on their structural composition and chromosomal location. As biologically active components of the extracellular matrix (ECM), SLRPs were known to bind to various collagens, having a role in regulating fibril assembly, organization and degradation. More recently, as a function of their diverse proteins cores and glycosaminoglycan side chains, SLRPs have been shown to be able to bind various cell surface receptors, growth factors, cytokines and other ECM components resulting in the ability to influence various cellular functions. Their involvement in several signaling pathways such as Wnt, transforming growth factor-β and epidermal growth factor receptor also highlights their role as matricellular proteins. SLRP family members are expressed during neural development and in adult neural tissues, including ocular tissues. This review focuses on describing SLRP family members involvement in neural development with a brief summary of their role in non-neural ocular tissues and in response to neural injury.