Synanthropic triatomines (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil: geographical distribution and natural Trypanosoma infection rates between 2006 and 2007

INTRODUCTION: The present study shows a descriptive analysis of triatomine occurrence and its natural Trypanosoma infection rates in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2006 and 2007. METHODS: Entomological data for the species, such as specimens captured in both intra and peridomiciles and natural infection index, were obtained via domiciliary capture in 147 municipalities from 11 Regional Managements of Health. The database was obtained from a sample of insects (100% infected and 20% non-infected) sent to the Central Laboratory of Pernambuco. RESULTS: A total of 18,029 triatomines were analyzed from 138 municipalities of the state. Triatoma pseudomaculata (35%), Triatoma brasiliensis (34%), and Panstrongylus lutzi (25%) were the most captured species. These species also showed a widespread geographical distribution in the state. Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma petrocchiae, Triatoma melanocephala, Triatoma sordida, Rhodnius nasutus, Rhodnius neglectus, and Triatoma infestans showed more limited geographical distribution and lower relative abundance. The parasitological research showed that 8.8% of the triatomines were naturally infected with flagellates morphologically similar to Trypanosoma cruzi and 91.3% of them were captured inside houses in 113 municipalities. P. lutzi showed the highest rates of natural infection. CONCLUSIONS: After the control of T. infestans, synanthropic species, such as T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, and P. lutzi, maintain the risk of T. cruzi transmission to humans in the state of Pernambuco. These species are widely distributed, and infected specimens have been found inside houses. Thus, an enhanced surveillance and vector control of Chagas disease is recommended in Pernambuco.

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

What hides behind the fixed-term contracts wage gap?

In Portugal, about 20% of full-time workers are employed under a fixed-term contract. Using a rich longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal, with more than 20 million observations and covering the 2002-2012 period, we confirm the common idea that fixed-term contracts are not desirable when compared to permanent ones, by estimating a conditional wage gap of -1.7 log points. Then, we evaluate the sources of that wage penalty by combining a three way high-dimensional fixed effects model with the decomposition of Gelbach (2014), in which the three dimensions considered are the worker’s unobserved ability, the firm’s compensation wage policy and the job title effect. It is shown that the average worker with a fixed-term contract is less productive than his/her permanent counterparts, explaining -3.92 log points of the FTC wage penalty. Additionally, the sorting of workers into lower-paid job titles is also responsible for -0.59 log points of the wage gap. Surprisingly, we found that the allocation of workers among firms mitigates the existing wage penalty (in 4.23 log points), as fixed-term workers are concentrated into firms with a more generous compensation policy. Finally, following Figueiredo et al. (2014), we further control for the worker-firm match characteristics and reach the conclusion that fixed-term employment relationships have an overrepresentation of low quality worker-firm matches, explaining 0.65 log points of the FTC wage penalty.

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Empirical evidence on the difference between the effective and the statutory tax rates for listed groups in Germany

The difference between the statutory and effective tax rate for listed groups is a complex variable influenced by a variety of factors. This paper aims to analyze whether this difference exists for listed groups in the German market and tests which factors have an impact on it. Thus the sample consists of 130 corporations listed in the three major German stock indices. The findings suggest that the companies that pay less than the statutory rate clearly outweigh the ones that pay more, and that the income earned from associated companies has a significant impact on this difference.

Managing marginal capital requirements in solvency II: Analysis of a real insurance portfolio

This thesis provides a complete analysis of the Standard Capital Requirements given by Solvency II for a real insurance portfolio. We analyze the investment portfolio of BPI Vida e Pensões, an insurance company affiliated with a Portuguese bank BPI, both at security, sub-portfolio and asset class levels. By using the Standard Formula from EIOPA, Total SCR amounts to 239M€. This value is mostly explained by Market and Default Risk whereas the former is driven by Spread and Concentration Risks. Following the methodology of Leblanc (2011), we examine the Marginal Contribution of an asset to the SCR which allows for the evaluation of the risks of each security given its characteristics and interactions in the portfolio. The top contributors to the SCR are Corporate Bonds and Term Deposits. By exploring further the composition of the portfolio, our results show that slight changes in allocation of Term and Cash Deposits have severe impacts on the total Concentration and Default Risks, respectively. Also, diversification effects are very relevant by representing savings of 122M€. Finally, Solvency II represents an opportunity for the portfolio optimization. By constructing efficient frontiers, we find that as the target expected return increases, a shift from Term Deposits/ Commercial Papers to Eurozone/Peripheral and finally Equities occurs.

Phlebotomine sandfly fauna and natural Leishmania infection rates in a rural area of Cerrado (tropical savannah) in Nova Mutum, State of Mato Grosso in Brazil

Introduction American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been reported in every municipality of the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, but the transmission epidemiology remains poorly understood. Our study was developed in a rural area of the Nova Mutum municipality where four autochthonous cases of ACL were reported in 2009. Our aims were to describe the local phlebotomine sandfly fauna and to investigate the infection rates and infecting Leishmania species in the captured sandflies. Methods Entomological captures were performed bimonthly at 10 fixed sites close to the edge of a forested area between June 2011 and April 2012. Results A total of 3,743 phlebotomine sandflies belonging to 31 distinct species were captured. Approximately 75% of the specimens were females. The most abundant species (45.4%) was Lutzomyia antunesi, which was consistently captured at every site. Species that are epidemiologically important for ACL, such as L. flaviscutellata, L. whitmani and L. umbratilis, were also captured. L. antunesi and L. ubiquitalis were naturally infected by Leishmania braziliensis or Le. guyanensis, with minimum infection rates of 0.88% and 6.67%, respectively. Surprisingly, L. antunesi was infected by Le. infantum (synonym chagasi). Conclusions The natural infection of L. antunesi and L. ubiquitalis by Leishmania sp. suggests that these species might play a role in the zoonotic cycle of ACL in Nova Mutum. The presence of Le. infantum in L. antunesi suggests that there may be a risk of an outbreak of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Nova Mutum.

Value creation in the nursing home real estate investment market - A case study

The underlying thesis examines the value drivers of direct investments in nursing home real estate in Germany. A survey among investors and operators is conducted in order to identify significant value drivers. Moreover, based on survey results, a framework for assessing German nursing home real estate is developed. This is applied in a case-study about the set-up of a nursing home value-add fund which will demonstrate the value creation process of redeveloping an existing nursing home real estate portfolio. Through a concluding analysis the sources of value creation, sensitivities and future prospects of direct investing into German nursing home real estate are concluded.

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction of Polaromonas sp. strain JS666: analysis of cDCE degradation rates and design of experiments for bioremediation improvement

Release of chloroethene compounds into the environment often results in groundwater contamination, which puts people at risk of exposure by drinking contaminated water. cDCE (cis-1,2-dichloroethene) accumulation on subsurface environments is a common environmental problem due to stagnation and partial degradation of other precursor chloroethene species. Polaromonas sp. strain JS666 apparently requires no exotic growth factors to be used as a bioaugmentation agent for aerobic cDCE degradation. Although being the only suitable microorganism found capable of such, further studies are needed for improving the intrinsic bioremediation rates and fully comprehend the metabolic processes involved. In order to do so, a metabolic model, iJS666, was reconstructed from genome annotation and available bibliographic data. FVA (Flux Variability Analysis) and FBA (Flux Balance Analysis) techniques were used to satisfactory validate the predictive capabilities of the iJS666 model. The iJS666 model was able to predict biomass growth for different previously tested conditions, allowed to design key experiments which should be done for further model improvement and, also, produced viable predictions for the use of biostimulant metabolites in the cDCE biodegradation.

Impact of the antipneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the occurrence of infectious respiratory diseases and hospitalization rates in children

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, to reduce the occurrence of serious pneumococcal disease, the Ministry of Health in Brazil incorporated the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine in the immunization schedule of children younger than two years of age. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of vaccination on the incidence of infectious respiratory diseases in infants before and after the introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved primary care and hospital networks from a city in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, between 2009 and 2012. RESULTS: A 40% reduction in the prevalence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) was observed after introducing the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Male children were 28% more likely to develop the disease. The prevalence ratio ([PR] = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.53, p < 0.05) suggested that not being vaccinated was associated with the occurrence of pneumonia. The prevalence of CAP was 70% lower (PR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.37, p<0.05) in children vaccinated as recommended compared to children with delayed vaccination, suggesting that the updated vaccine schedule improves protection. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization with the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine appeared to reduce the number of pneumonia cases in children during the study period. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of the vaccine against the occurrence of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

The use of saliva as a practical and feasible alternative to urine in large-scale screening for congenital cytomegalovirus infection increasesinclusion and detection rates

INTRODUCTION: Although urine is considered the gold-standard material for the detection of congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, it can be difficult to obtain in newborns. The aim of this study was to compare the efficiency of detection of congenital CMV infection in saliva and urine samples. METHODS: One thousand newborns were included in the study. Congenital cytomegalovirus deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) was detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: Saliva samples were obtained from all the newborns, whereas urine collection was successful in only 333 cases. There was no statistically significant difference between the use of saliva alone or saliva and urine collected simultaneously for the detection of CMV infection. CONCLUSIONS: Saliva samples can be used in large-scale neonatal screening for CMV infection.

Occult HBV infection status among chronic hepatitis C and hemodialysis patients in Northeastern Egypt: regional and national overview

INTRODUCTION: Occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) is considered to be one of the major risks for patients suffering from end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on regular hemodialysis (HD) and patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. This study compared the prevalence of OBI among these two high-risk groups in the Suez Canal region, Northeastern Egypt, to obtain a better national overview of the magnitude of OBI in this region. METHODS: Serum samples were collected from 165 HD patients and 210 chronic HCV-infected patients. Anti-HCV antibody, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), total hepatitis B core (anti-HBc) antibody, and hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). HCV RNA was detected using a quantitative real-time RT-PCR assay, and HBV was detected using a nested PCR. RESULTS: All patients were negative for HBsAg. A total of 49.1% and 25.2% of the patients in the HD and HCV groups, respectively, were anti-HBc-positive. In addition, more anti-HBs-positive patients were detected in the HD group compared to the HCV group (52.1% and 11.4%, respectively). Three cases were positive for HBV DNA in the HD group, while eighteen positive cases were detected in the HCV group. Both study groups showed significant differences in serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level as well as anti-HBc, anti-HBs and HBV-DNA positivity. CONCLUSIONS: OBI was more prevalent among chronic HCV patients than HD patients in the Suez Canal region, Egypt, with rates of 8.5% and 1.8%, respectively. However, more precise assessment of this infection requires regular patient follow-up using HBV DNA detection methods.

Antimicrobial resistance of Helicobacter pylori strains to five antibiotics, including levofloxacin, in Northwestern Turkey

INTRODUCTION: Antibiotic resistance is the main factor that affects the efficacy of current therapeutic regimens against Helicobacter pylori. This study aimed to determine the rates of resistance to efficacy clarithromycin, amoxicillin, tetracycline, levofloxacin and metronidazole among H. pylori strains isolated from Turkish patients with dyspepsia. METHODS: H. pylori was cultured from corpus and antrum biopsies that were collected from patients with dyspeptic symptoms, and the antimicrobial susceptibility of H. pylori was determined using the E-test (clarithromycin, amoxicillin, tetracycline, metronidazole and levofloxacin) according to the EUCAST breakpoints. Point mutations in the 23S rRNA gene of clarithromycin-resistant strains were investigated using real-time PCR. RESULTS: A total of 98 H. pylori strains were isolated, all of which were susceptible to amoxicillin and tetracycline. Of these strains, 36.7% (36/98) were resistant to clarithromycin, 35.5% (34/98) were resistant to metronidazole, and 29.5% (29/98) were resistant to levofloxacin. Multiple resistance was detected in 19.3% of the isolates. The A2143G and A2144G point mutations in the 23S rRNA-encoding gene were found in all 36 (100%) of the clarithromycin-resistant strains. Additionally, the levofloxacin MIC values increased to 32 mg/L in our H. pylori strains. Finally, among the clarithromycin-resistant strains, 27.2% were resistant to levofloxacin, and 45.4% were resistant to metronidazole. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that treatment failure after clarithromycin- or levofloxacin-based triple therapy is not surprising and that metronidazole is not a reliable agent for the eradication of H. pylori infection in Turkey.