How contractors price risk in bids: theory and practice

Formal and analytical models that contractors can use to assess and price project risk at the tender stage have proliferated in recent years. However, they are rarely used in practice. Introducing more models would, therefore, not necessarily help. A better understanding is needed of how contractors arrive at a bid price in practice, and how, and in what circumstances, risk apportionment actually influences pricing levels. More than 60 proposed risk models for contractors that are published in journals were examined and classified. Then exploratory interviews with five UK contractors and documentary analyses on how contractors price work generally and risk specifically were carried out to help in comparing the propositions from the literature to what contractors actually do. No comprehensive literature on the real bidding processes used in practice was found, and there is no evidence that pricing is systematic. Hence, systematic risk and pricing models for contractors may have no justifiable basis. Contractors process their bids through certain tendering gateways. They acknowledge the risk that they should price. However, the final settlement depends on a set of complex, micro-economic factors. Hence, risk accountability may be smaller than its true cost to the contractor. Risk apportionment occurs at three stages of the whole bid-pricing process. However, analytical approaches tend not to incorporate this, although they could.

UK Food Standards Agency workshop report: the effects of the dietary n-6 : n-3 fatty acid ratio on cardiovascular health

This report summarises a workshop convened by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) on 11 September 2006 to review the results of three FSA-funded studies and other recent research on effects of the dietary n-6:n-3 fatty acid ratio on cardiovascular health. The objective of this workshop was to reach a clear conclusion on whether or not it was worth funding any further research in this area. On the basis of this review of the experimental evidence and on theoretical grounds, it was concluded that the n-6:n-3 fatty acid ratio is not a useful concept and that it distracts attention away from increasing absolute intakes of long-chain n-3 fatty acids which have been shown to have beneficial effects on cardiovascular health. Other markers of fatty acid intake, that more closely relate to physiological function, may be more useful.

Lack of effect of dietary n-6 : n-3 PUFA ratio on plasma lipids and markers of insulin responses in Indian Asians living in the UK

Background: Indian Asians living in Western Countries have an over 50% increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) relative to their Caucasians counterparts. The atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP), which is more prevalent in this ethnic group, may in part explain the increased risk. A low dietary long chain n-3 fatty acid (LC n-3 PUFA) intake and a high dietary n-6 PUFA intake and n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio in Indian Asians have been proposed as contributors to the increased ALP incidence and CHD risk in this subgroup. Aim: To examine the impact of dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio on membrane fatty acid composition, blood lipid levels and markers of insulin sensitivity in Indian Asians living in the UK. Methods: Twenty-nine males were assigned to either a moderate or high n-6:n-3 PUFA (9 or 16) diet for 6 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected at baseline and 6 weeks for analysis of triglycerides, total-, LDL- and HDL- cholesterol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin, markers of insulin sensitivity and C-reactive protein. Results: Group mean saturated fatty acid, MUFA, n-6 PUFA and n-3 PUFA on the moderate and high n-6:n-3 PUFA diets were 26 g/d, 43 g/d, 15 g/d, 2 g/d and 25 g/d, 25 g/d, 28 g/d, 2 g/d respectively. A significantly lower total membrane n-3 PUFA and a trend towards lower EPA and DHA levels were observed following the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet. However no significant effect of treatment on plasma lipids was evident. There was a trend towards a loss of insulin sensitivity on the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet, with the increase in fasting insulin (P = 0.04) and HOMA IR [(insulin x glucose)/22.5] (P = 0.02) reaching significance. Conclusion: The results of the current study suggest that, within the context of a western diet, it is unlikely that dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio has any major impact on the levels of LC n-3 PUFA in membrane phospholipids or have any major clinically relevant impact on insulin sensitivity and its associated dyslipidaemia.

Effects of variation in the palm stearin: palm olein ratio on the crystallisation of a low-trans shortening

Changes in the theological properties during crystallisation and in the crystal size and morphology of blends containing rapeseed oil with varying percentages of palm stearin (POs) and palm olein (POf) have been studied. The crystals formed from all three blends were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy, light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy, which revealed the development of clusters of 3-5 individual elementary "spherulites" in the early stages of crystallisation. The saturated triacylglycerol content of the solid crystals separated at the onset of crystallisation was much greater than that in the total fat. Fat blends with a higher content of palm stearin had a more rapid nucleation rate when observed by light microscopy, and this caused an earlier change in the rheological properties of the fat during crystallisation. Using a low torque amplitude (0.005 Pa, which was within the linear viscoelastic region of all samples studied) and a frequency of 1 Hz, the viscoelastic properties of melted fat during cooling were studied. All samples, prior to crystallisation, showed weak viscoelastic liquid behaviour (G '', loss modulus >G', storage modulus). After crystallisation a more "solid like" behaviour was observed (G' similar to or greater than G ''). The blend having the highest concentration of POs was found to have the earliest onset of crystallisation (27% w/w POs; 12 mins, 22% w/w POs; 13.5 mins, 17% w/w POs, 15 mins, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in the time to the point when G' became greater than G' among the three blends. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Deciding the price of fame

Previous studies of ignorance-driven decision-making have either analyzed when ignorance should prove advantageous on theoretical grounds, or else they have examined whether human behavior is consistent with an ignorance driven inference strategy (e.g., the recognition heuristic). The current study merges these research goals by examining whether – under conditions where ignorance driven inference might be expected – the type of advantages theoretical analyses predict are evident in human performance data. A single experiment shows that, when asked to make relative wealth judgments, participants reliably use recognition as a basis for their judgments. Their wealth judgments under these conditions are reliably more accurate when some of the target names are unknown than when participants recognize all the names (the “less-is-more effect”). these data are robust against a number of variations on the size of the pool from which participants have to choose and the nature of the wealth judgment.

On the design of opportunistic cooperative transmission strategies with partial CSI information

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of channel state information on the design of cooperative transmission protocols. This is motivated by the fact that the performance gain achieved by cooperative diversity comes at the price of the extra bandwidth resource consumption. Several opportunistic relaying strategies are developed to fully utilize the different types of a priori channel information. The information-theoretic measures such as outage probability and diversity-multiplexing tradeoff are developed for the proposed protocols. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the use of such a priori information increases the spectral efficiency of cooperative diversity, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio.

Kernel classifier construction using orthogonal forward selection and boosting with Fisher ratio class separability measure

A greedy technique is proposed to construct parsimonious kernel classifiers using the orthogonal forward selection method and boosting based on Fisher ratio for class separability measure. Unlike most kernel classification methods, which restrict kernel means to the training input data and use a fixed common variance for all the kernel terms, the proposed technique can tune both the mean vector and diagonal covariance matrix of individual kernel by incrementally maximizing Fisher ratio for class separability measure. An efficient weighted optimization method is developed based on boosting to append kernels one by one in an orthogonal forward selection procedure. Experimental results obtained using this construction technique demonstrate that it offers a viable alternative to the existing state-of-the-art kernel modeling methods for constructing sparse Gaussian radial basis function network classifiers. that generalize well.

On the performance of opportunistic cooperative wireless networks

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of channel state information on the design of cooperative transmission protocols. This is motivated by the fact that the performance gain achieved by cooperative diversity comes at the price of the extra bandwidth resource consumption. Several opportunistic relaying strategies are developed to fully utilize the different types of a priori channel information. The analytical and numerical results demonstrate that the use of such a priori information increases the spectral efficiency of cooperative diversity, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio.

Ratio selection for classification models

This paper is concerned with the selection of inputs for classification models based on ratios of measured quantities. For this purpose, all possible ratios are built from the quantities involved and variable selection techniques are used to choose a convenient subset of ratios. In this context, two selection techniques are proposed: one based on a pre-selection procedure and another based on a genetic algorithm. In an example involving the financial distress prediction of companies, the models obtained from ratios selected by the proposed techniques compare favorably to a model using ratios usually found in the financial distress literature.

High signal to noise ratio THz spectroscopy with ASOPS and signal processing schemes for mapping and controlling molecular and bulk relaxation processes

Asynchronous Optical Sampling has the potential to improve signal to noise ratio in THz transient sperctrometry. The design of an inexpensive control scheme for synchronising two femtosecond pulse frequency comb generators at an offset frequency of 20 kHz is discussed. The suitability of a range of signal processing schemes adopted from the Systems Identification and Control Theory community for further processing recorded THz transients in the time and frequency domain are outlined. Finally, possibilities for femtosecond pulse shaping using genetic algorithms are mentioned.