Caribbean policy response to the information age: a review of government information and communications technology policy and services in selected Caribbean countries

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: first quarter 2003

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: second quarter 2003

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: fourth quarter 2003

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: year end 2006

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: quarterly developments

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

Maritime Transport Price Indices in Late 2006

Since the worldwide freight crisis that began in mid-2002, maritime transport prices have remained higher than pre-crisis levels and have proved to be fairly volatile. This edition of the Bulletin is the first one of the year to analyse maritime transport markets. It covers price trends in three maritime transport markets: containers, bulk carriers, and petroleum and refinery byproducts.

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Developments

For six years, the global economy has been driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policies of easy money. Liquidity has flowed from developed to developing economies, financing infrastructure and corporate investment and allowing consumers to indulge in credit-fuelled retail spending. Thus the effective ending of the Fed’s third round of asset purchases (QE3) at the end of October represents both a watershed and the beginning of a new stage in the world economy. The end of asset-purchases comes at a challenging time for emerging markets, with China’s economy slowing, the Euro zone struggling to avoid a recession and the Japanese economy already in recession. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. An appreciated dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive to buyers, thereby creating pressure for sellers to lower their prices. Latin American markets ended the third quarter of 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. In this changing external context, there are many signs that a slowdown in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) financial markets, particularly debt markets, which have been breaking issuance records for the past six years, may slowdown from now on. Commodity prices – including those of oil, base metals and some goods – are in a prolonged slump. The Bloomberg commodity price index, a benchmark of commodity investments, has fallen to a five-year low as China’s economy slows down, and with it the demand for commodities. Investment into the LAC region has decelerated, in large part because of a deceleration of mining investments. Latin American currencies have suffered depreciations, as current account deficits have widening for a number of countries. And LAC companies, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds may now struggle to service their debt. In October, credit-rating agency Moody’s downgraded the bonds of Brazil’s Petrobras to tow notches above speculative grade because of the impact of falling oil prices and the weaker real on its debt. Growth prospects look brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region. The Institute of International Finance expects the strengthening of the dollar to have a divergent impact across the region, however, depending on trade and financial linkages. The Institute of International Finance, Capital Flows to Emerging Markets, October 2, 2014. A stronger dollar lifts U.S. purchasing power, supporting exports, growth and capital inflows in countries with close trade links to the U.S. economy. However, rising dollar financing costs will increase pressure on countries with weak external positions. Given the effects of falling oil prices and a stronger dollar, some companies in the region, having issued record amounts of foreign currency bonds, may now struggle to service their debts. Prospects of Fed rate hikes resulting in tighter global liquidity amid the rapid rise in the corporate external bond stock has indeed raised concerns over some companies. However, there is still a shortage of bonds at a global level and the region still enjoys good economic policy management for the most part, so LAC debt markets may continue to enjoy momentum despite occasional bursts of high volatility – even if not at the record levels of recent years.

Is price dispersion always an indication of price discrimination?

It has been established for a long time that there is significant dispersion in prices charged for seemingly homogeneous goods. This may happen in competitive markets because the world is not frictionless, and certainly in other markets where price discrimination is carried out by firms with oligopolistic power. This paper is the first survey of the economic literature on price dispersion that addresses the following three key issues: i) its characteristics as a result of optimizing search behavior; ii) its relevance as a reflection of price discrimination and its consequences for social welfare and policy intervention; and iii) the empirical evidence of price dispersion. By contributing to a better understanding of price dispersion, this survey may help in the design and implementation of competition and anti-trust policies

An assessment of fiscal and regulatory barriers to deployment of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao

The current energy systems within Curaçao depend primarily on high cost, imported fossil fuels, and typically constitute power sectors that are characterized by small, inefficient generation plants which result in high energy prices. As a consequence of its dependence on external fuel supplies, Curaçao is extremely vulnerable to international oil price shocks, which can impact on economic planning and foreign direct investment within their industrial sectors. The ability of the successive governments to source capital for economic stimulation and social investment is therefore significantly challenging. Additionally, there is over-dependence on two of the most climate-sensitive economic sectors, namely the tourism and fisheries sectors, but the vulnerabilities of the country to the effects of climate change make adaptation difficult and costly. It is within this context that this report focuses on identification of the fiscal and regulatory barriers to implementation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in Curaçao with a view of making recommendations for removal of these barriers. Consultations with key Government officials, the private sector as well as civil society were conducted to obtain information and data on the energy sector in the country. Desktop research was also conducted to supplement the information gathered from the consultations. The major result of the assessment is that Curaçao is at an early stage in the definition of its energy sector. Despite some infrastructural legacies of the pre-independence era, as well as a number of recent developments including the modernization and expansion of its windfarms and completion of a modern Electricity Policy, there are still a number of important institutional and policy gaps within the energy sector in Curaçao. The most significant deficiency is the absence of a ministry or Government agency with portfolio responsibility for the energy sector as a whole; this has: limited the degree to which the activities of energy sector stakeholders are coordinated and retarded the development and implementation of a comprehensive national energy policy. The absence of an energy policy, which provides the framework for energy planning, increases investor risk. Also, the lack of political continuity that has emanated from the frequent changes in Government administrations is a concern among stakeholders and has served to reduce investor confidence in particular, and market confidence in general.

Meta-analysis of the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand: public policy implications for Latin America

By means of a meta-analysis, this article sets out to estimate average values for the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand and to analyse the reasons for the variations in the elasticities reported by the literature. The findings show that there is publication bias, that the volatility of elasticity estimates is not due to sampling errors alone, and that there are systematic factors explaining these differences. The income and price elasticities of gasoline demand differ between the short and long run and by region, and the estimation can appropriately include the vehicle fleet and the prices of substitute goods, the data types and the estimation methods used. The presence of a low price elasticity suggests that a fuel tax will be inadequate to control rising consumption in a context of rapid economic growth.

Genetic parameters for earnings in Quarter Horse

In this study, we estimated the heritability (h(2)) of earnings in the Quarter Horse in order to evaluate the inclusion of this trait in breeding programs. Records from 14,754 races of 2443 horses from 1978-2009 were provided by Sorocaba Hippodrome, Sao Paulo, Brazil. All ancestors of the registered horses were included in the pedigree file until the 4th generation. Log-transformed performance measures (LPM) were analyzed for animals aged 2, 3, and 4 years and during their entire career. The h(2) estimates were obtained using a multi-trait model and Gibbs sampling that included the effects of sex, year of race, and animal in all analyses. Five analyses were performed: 1 in which LPM was divided by the number of prizes, 1 in which LPM was divided by the number of race starts, and 3 analyses that included the number of prizes, number of race starts, and both (LPM_cNPS) as covariates. Analysis was performed with and without inclusion of the maternal effect. Models were compared based on the deviance information criterion and LPM_cNPS including maternal effects was found to be the best model. The h(2) estimates and standard deviation obtained using model LPM_cNPS were 0.19 +/- 0.08, 0.21 +/- 0.08, 0.22 +/- 0.09, and 0.21 +/- 0.07 for earnings at 2, 3, and 4 years of age and total career, respectively. Our analyses indicate that earnings are subject to selection and can be included in breeding programs to improve the racing performance of Quarter Horses.