Solar flare particle propagation--comparison of a new analytic solution with spacecraft measurements

A new analytic solution has been obtained to the complete Fokker-Planck equation for solar flare particle propagation including the effects of convection, energy-change, corotation, and diffusion with ĸ_r = constant and ĸ_Ɵ ∝ r². It is assumed that the particles are injected impulsively at a single point in space, and that a boundary exists beyond which the particles are free to escape. Several solar flare particle events have been observed with the Caltech Solar and Galactic Cosmic Ray Experiment aboard OGO-6. Detailed comparisons of the predictions of the new solution with these observations of 1-70 MeV protons show that the model adequately describes both the rise and decay times, indicating that ĸ_r = constant is a better description of conditions inside 1 AU than is ĸ_r ∝ r. With an outer boundary at 2.7 AU, a solar wind velocity of 400 km/sec, and a radial diffusion coefficient ĸ_r ≈ 2-8 x 10²⁰ cm²/sec, the model gives reasonable fits to the time-profile of 1-10 MeV protons from "classical" flare-associated events. It is not necessary to invoke a scatter-free region near the sun in order to reproduce the fast rise times observed for directly-connected events. The new solution also yields a time-evolution for the vector anisotropy which agrees well with previously reported observations.

In addition, the new solution predicts that, during the decay phase, a typical convex spectral feature initially at energy T_o will move to lower energies at an exponential rate given by T_KINK = T_oexp(-t/Ƭ_KINK). Assuming adiabatic deceleration and a boundary at 2.7 AU, the solution yields Ƭ_KINK ≈ 100h, which is faster than the measured ~200h time constant and slower than the adiabatic rate of ~78h at 1 AU. Two possible explanations are that the boundary is at ~5 AU or that some other energy-change process is operative.

Analysis of beam-quality degradation in nonlinear frequency conversion

Based on the ripple transfers of electric-field amplitude and phase in frequency tripling, simple formulas are derived for the harmonic laser's beam-quality factor M-3omega(2), with an arbitrary fundamental incidence to ideal nonlinear crystals. Whereas the harmonic beam's quality is generally degraded, the beam's divergence is similar to that of the fundamental after nonlinear frequency conversion. For practical crystals with periodic surface ripples that are caused by their machining, a multiorder diffractive model is presented with which the focusing properties of harmonic beams can be studied. Predictions of the theories are shown to be in excellent agreement with full numerical simulations. (C) 2002 Optical Society of America.

Prediction and confirmation of seasonal migration of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem

During the last century, the population of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem has exhibited large fluctuations in abundance and migration behavior. From approximately 1900 to 1940, the abundance of sardine reached 3.6 million metric tons and the “northern stock” migrated from offshore of California in the spring to the coastal areas near Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island in the summer. In the 1940s, the sardine stock collapsed and the few remaining sardine schools concentrated in the coastal region off southern California, year-round, for the next 50 years. The stock gradually recovered in the late 1980s and resumed its seasonal migration between regions off southern California and Canada. Recently, a model was developed which predicts the potential habitat for the northern stock of Pacific sardine and its seasonal dynamics. The habitat predictions were successfully validated using data from sardine surveys using the daily egg production method; scientific trawl surveys off the Columbia River mouth; and commercial sardine landings off Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Here, the predictions of the potential habitat and seasonal migration of the northern stock of sardine are validated using data from “acoustic–trawl” surveys of the entire west coast of the United States during the spring and summer of 2008. The estimates of sardine biomass and lengths from the two surveys are not significantly different between spring and summer, indicating that they are representative of the entire stock. The results also confirm that the model of potential sardine habitat can be used to optimally apply survey effort and thus minimize random and systematic sampling error in the biomass estimates. Furthermore, the acoustic–trawl survey data are useful to estimate concurrently the distributions and abundances of other pelagic fishes.

An assessment of discard mortality for two Alaskan crab species, Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio), based on reflex impairment

Delayed mortality associated with discarded crabs and fishes has ordinarily been observed through tag and recovery studies or during prolonged holding in deck tanks, and there is need for a more efficient assessment method. Chionoecetes bairdi (Tanner crab) and C. opilio (snow crab) collected with bottom trawls in Bering Sea waters off Alaska were evaluated for reflexes and injuries and held onboard to track mortality. Presence or absence of six reflex actions was determined and combined to calculate a reflex impairment index for each species. Logistic regression revealed that reflex impairment provided an excellent predictor of delayed mortality in C. opilio (91% correct predictions). For C. bairdi, reflex impairment, along with injury score, resulted in 82.7% correct predictions of mortality, and reflex impairment alone resulted in 79.5% correct predictions. The relationships between reflex impairment score and mortality were independent of crab gender, size, and shell condition, and predicted mortality in crabs with no obvious external damage. These relationships provide substantial improvement over earlier predictors of mortality and will help to increase the scope and replication of fishing and handling experiments. The general approach of using reflex actions to predict mortality should be equally valuable for a wide range of crustacean species.

Exploring the use of neural networks for biomass forecasts in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem

A pilot study was conducted to study the ability of an artificial neural network to predict the biomass of Peruvian anchoveta Engraulis ringens, given time series of earlier biomasses, and of environmental parameters (ocenographic data and predator abundances). Acceptable predictions of three months or more appear feasible after thorough scrutiny of the input data set.

Optimal control predicts human performance on objects with internal degrees of freedom.

On a daily basis, humans interact with a vast range of objects and tools. A class of tasks, which can pose a serious challenge to our motor skills, are those that involve manipulating objects with internal degrees of freedom, such as when folding laundry or using a lasso. Here, we use the framework of optimal feedback control to make predictions of how humans should interact with such objects. We confirm the predictions experimentally in a two-dimensional object manipulation task, in which subjects learned to control six different objects with complex dynamics. We show that the non-intuitive behavior observed when controlling objects with internal degrees of freedom can be accounted for by a simple cost function representing a trade-off between effort and accuracy. In addition to using a simple linear, point-mass optimal control model, we also used an optimal control model, which considers the non-linear dynamics of the human arm. We find that the more realistic optimal control model captures aspects of the data that cannot be accounted for by the linear model or other previous theories of motor control. The results suggest that our everyday interactions with objects can be understood by optimality principles and advocate the use of more realistic optimal control models for the study of human motor neuroscience.

A model for the erosive wear of rubber at oblique impact angles

A model has been developed to predict the erosive wear behaviour of elastomers under conditions of glancing impact by small hard particles. Previous work has shown the erosive wear mechanism of elastomers under these conditions to be similar in nature to that of abrasive wear by a sharp blade. The model presented here was developed from the model of Southern and Thomas for sliding abrasion, by combining their treatment of the growth of surface cracks with a model for particle impact in which the force - displacement relationship for an idealized flat-ended punch on a semi-infinite elastic solid was assumed. In this way an expression for the erosive wear rate was developed, and compared with experimental measurements of wear rate for natural rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber and a highly crosslinked polybutadiene rubber. Good qualitative agreement was found between the predictions of the model and the experimental measurements. The variation of erosion rate with impact velocity, impact angle, particle size, elastic modulus of the material, coefficient of friction and fatigue properties were all well accounted for. Quantitative agreement was less good, and the effects of erosive particle shape could not be accounted for. The reasons for these discrepancies are discussed. © 1992 IOP Publishing Ltd.

The generation of wear surfaces

Abrasive wear is likely to occur whenever a hard asperity or a trapped hard particle is dragged across a softer surface, and it has been estimated that this form of wear contributes to as many as half of the wear problems that are met in industry. Such damaging hard particles may be external contaminants, products of corrosion or even the debris from previous wear events. During the life of a component, damage caused by individual asperity or particle interactions builds up and, at each stage of its life, the worn surface is the result of many such superimposed wear events. The practical, quantitative prediction of wear rates depends on having both a satisfactory understanding of individual interactions and a suitable procedure for combining these when subsequent contacts are made on a surface whose topography and material properties may have been much changed Irom their initial states. The paper includes some details of an analytical model for the interaction of a representative asperity and the worn surface which can both predict the frictional force and the balance between ploughing, when material is displaced but not lost from the surface, and micromachining or cutting, when actual detachment occurs. Experiments tö !rvvéSuQ8Î8 the validity of the model have been carried out on a novel wear rig which provides very precise control over the position of the asperity and the counterface. This facility, together with that of on-board profilometry, means that it is possible to carry out wear experiments on areas of the surface whose previous deformation history is well known; in this way it is possible to follow the development of a worn surface in a controlled manner as the damage from individual wear events accumulates. Experimental data on the development of such a surface, produced by repeated parallel abrasion, are compared with the predictions of the model. © 1992 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Rolling of thin strip and foil: Application of a tribological model for "mixed" lubrication

A mechanical model of cold rolling of foil is coupled with a sophisticated tribological model. The tribological model treats the "mixed" lubrication regime of practical interest, in which there is "real" contact between the roll and strip as well as pressurized oil between the surfaces. The variation of oil film thickness and contact ratio in the bite is found by considering flattening of asperities on the foil and the build-up of hydrodynamic pressure through the bite. The boundary friction coefficient for the contact areas is taken from strip drawing tests under similar tribological conditions. Theoretical results confirm that roll load and forward slip decrease with increasing rolling speed due to the decrease in contact ratio and friction. The predictions of the model are verified using mill trials under industrial conditions. For both thin strip and foil, the load predicted by the model has reasonable agreement with the measurements. For rolling of foil, forward slip is overestimated. This is greatly improved if a variation of friction through the bite is considered.

Wake, shock and potential field interactions in a 1.5 stage turbine: Part II: Vane-vane interaction and discussion of results

The composition of the time-resolved surface pressure field around a high-pressure rotor blade caused by the presence of neighboring blade rows was studied, with the individual effects of wake, shock and potential field interaction being determined. Two test geometries were considered: first, a high-pressure turbine stage coupled with a swan-necked diffuser exit duct; secondly, the same high-pressure stage but with a vane located in the downstream duct. Both tests were carried out at engine-representative Mach and Reynolds numbers. By comparing the results to time-resolved computational predictions of the flowfield, the accuracy with which the computation predicts blade interaction was determined. Evidence was obtained that for a large downstream vane, the flow conditions in the rotor passage, at any instant in time, are close to being steady state.

Studies of inverter ratings of BDFM adjustable speed drive or generator systems

This paper discusses the inverter ratings of Brushless Doubly-Fed Machine (BDFM) adjustable speed drive (ASD) or generator (ASG) systems. Based on the per phase equivalent circuit model, the ratings of the two inverters in a bidirectional converter are evaluated individually. An approach to minimise the total inverter rating is presented, taking into account power factor constraints of the power grid. The effects of speed deviation and control winding excitation on the inverter ratings are discussed. Predictions of inverter ratings are presented with experimental verification. A design example is also provided in which the total inverter rating is minimised for a practical BDFM based ASG system. © 2005 IEEE.

The prediction of hot streak migration in a high-pressure turbine

Accurate predictions of combustor hot streak migration enable the turbine designer to identify high-temperature regions that can limit component life. It is therefore important that these predictions are achieved within the short time scales of a design process. This article compares temperature measurements of a circular hot streak through a turning duct and a research turbine with predictions using a three-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver. It was found that the mixing length turbulence model did not predict the hot streak dissipation accurately. However, implementation of a very simple model of the free stream turbulence (FST) significantly improved the exit temperature predictions on both the duct and research turbine. One advantage of the simple FST model described over more complex alternatives is that no additional equations are solved. This makes the method attractive for design purposes, as it is not associated with any increase in computational time.

Study of the electric loading aspects of the BDFM using a lumped parameter thermal model

Details of a lumped parameter thermal model for studying thermal aspects of the frame size 180 nested loop rotor BDFM at the University of Cambridge are presented. Predictions of the model are verified against measured end winding and rotor bar temperatures that were measured with the machine excited from a DC source. The model is used to assess the thermal coupling between the stator windings and rotor heating. The thermal coupling between the stator windings is assessed by studying the difference of the steady state temperatures of the two stator end windings for different excitations. The rotor heating is assessed by studying the temperatures of regions of interest for different excitations.

Assessment of CFD models for shock boundary-layer interaction

A workshop on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of shock boundary-layer interactions (SBLIs) was held at the 48th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting. As part of the workshop numerous CFD analysts submitted solutions to four experimentally measured SBLIs. This paper describes the assessment of the CFD predictions. The assessment includes an uncertainty analysis of the experimental data, the definition of an error metric and the application of that metric to the CFD solutions. The CFD solutions provided very similar levels of error and in general it was difficult to discern clear trends in the data. For the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes methods the choice of turbulence model appeared to be the largest factor in solution accuracy. Large-eddy simulation methods produced error levels similar to RANS methods but provided superior predictions of normal stresses.

The effect of a twin tunnel on the propagation of ground-borne vibration from an underground railway

Accurate predictions of ground-borne vibration levels in the vicinity of an underground railway are greatly sought after in modern urban centres. Yet the complexity involved in simulating the underground environment means that it is necessary to make simplifying assumptions about this system. One such commonly made assumption is to ignore the effects of neighbouring tunnels, despite the fact that many underground railway lines consist of twin-bored tunnels, one for the outbound direction and one for the inbound direction. This paper presents a unique model for two tunnels embedded in a homogeneous, elastic fullspace. Each of these tunnels is subject to both known, dynamic train forces and dynamic cavity forces. The net forces acting on the tunnels are written as the sum of those tractions acting on the invert of a single tunnel, and those tractions that represent the motion induced by the neighbouring tunnel. By apportioning the tractions in this way, the vibration response of a two-tunnel system is written as a linear combination of displacement fields produced by a single-tunnel system. Using Fourier decomposition, forces are partitioned into symmetric and antisymmetric modenumber components to minimise computation times. The significance of the interactions between two tunnels is quantified by calculating the insertion gains, in both the vertical and horizontal directions, that result from the existence of a second tunnel. The insertion-gain results are shown to be localised and highly dependent on frequency, tunnel orientation and tunnel thickness. At some locations, the magnitude of these insertion gains is greater than 20 dB. This demonstrates that a high degree of inaccuracy exists in any surface vibration prediction model that includes only one of the two tunnels. This novel two-tunnel solution represents a significant contribution to the existing body of research into vibration from underground railways, as it shows that the second tunnel has a significant influence on the accuracy of vibration predictions for underground railways. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.