Analysis of the differences between the rates of inflation associated with two aggregate price level: The case of the euro area and the United States

Idioma: Inglés Abstract: This project focuses on two indicators of prices, the GDP deflator and the consumer price index (CPI), and analyzes the differences and similarities they present. These price indexes have been chosen taking into account its great representativeness and importance to economic and social level, and its direct relationship to the overall functioning of the economy and, in particular, inflation. It should be also mentioned that this study was conducted for cases of the euro area and the United States, as the impact of these economies in the economic and social situation at international level is very significant.

Estímulos fiscais e a interação entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil

Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.

Comparison of habitat-based indices of abundance with fishery-independent biomass estimates from bottom trawl surveys

Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.

Integrating methods for determining length-at-age to improve growth estimates for two large scombrids

Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone.

Estimates of body sizes at maturation and at sex change, and the spawning seasonality and sex ratio of the endemic Hawaiian grouper (Hyporthodus quernus, F. Epinephelidae)

A case study of the reproductive biology of the endemic Hawaiian grouper or hapu’upu’u (Hyporthodus quernus) is presented as a model for comprehensive future studies of economically important epinephelid groupers. Specimens were collected throughout multiple years (1978–81, 1992–93, and 2005–08) from most reefs and banks of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The absence of small males, presence of atretic oocytes and brown bodies in testes of mature males, and both developed ovarian and testicular tissues in the gonads of five transitional fish provided evidence of protogynous hermaphroditism. No small mature males were collected, indicating that Hawaiian grouper are monandrous (all males are sex-changed females). Complementary microscopic criteria also were used to assign reproductive stage and estimate median body sizes (L50) at female sexual maturity and at adult sex change from female to male. The L50 at maturation and at sex change was 580 ±8 (95% confidence interval [CI]) mm total length (TL) and 895 ±20 mm TL, respectively. The adult sex ratio was strongly female biased (6:1). Spawning seasonality was described by using gonadosomatic indices. Females began ripening in the fall and remained ripe through April. A February–June main spawning period that followed peak ripening was deduced from the proportion of females whose ovaries contained hydrated oocytes, postovulatory follicles, or both. Testes weights were not affected by season; average testes weight was only about 0.2% of body weight—an order of magnitude smaller than that for ovaries that peaked at 1–3% of body weight. The species’ reproductive life history is discussed in relation to its management.

Observer-reported skate bycatch in the commercial groundfish fisheries of Alaska

We analyzed skate catch data collected by observers in the North Pacific Groundfish Observer Program (NPGOP) from 1998 through 2008 to document recent changes in the identification of skates by observers and to examine the species composition of observed skate catch in Alaska’s groundfish fisheries as well as recent trends in skate retention by commercial fishermen. Historically, almost all skate bycatch has been reported by NPGOP observers as “skate unidentified.” However, since 2004 observers have been trained to identify skates to the genus and species level. In 2008 over 95% of all skates were identified at least to the genus level, and over 50% were identified to species. The most common species of skates identified by observers in groundfish fisheries are Bathyraja parmifera (Alaska skate), Raja binoculata (big skate), and Bathyraja aleutica (Aleutian skate). Species composition of reported skate catch generally reflects recent survey-derived biomass estimates, with B. parmifera dominating the catches in the Bering Sea and, to a lesser extent, in the Aleutian Islands region, and species of the genus Raja dominating catches in the Gulf of Alaska. A relatively high percentage of the skate catch on longline vessels is still reported at the family or genus level because of difficulties in the identification of skates not brought onboard the vessel. For the larger skate species, the proportion retained for processing has increased in recent years as the market price for skate product has increased. Although observed skate catch does not give a complete account of skate bycatch in the fisheries of the region, observer data provide critical information for the appropriate management of skate populations in Alaska.

Validation of a method for estimating realized annual fecundity in a multiple spawner, the long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus), using underwater visual census

The long-snouted seahorse (Hippocampus guttulatus) (Cuvier, 1829), was used to validate the pre-dictive accuracy of three progressively realistic models for estimating the realized annual fecundity of asyn-chronous, indeterminate, multiple spawners. Underwater surveys and catch data were used to estimate the duration of the reproductive season, female spawning frequency, male brooding frequency, and batch fecun-dity. The most realistic model, a generalization of the spawning fraction method, produced unbiased estimates of male brooding frequency (mean ±standard deviation [SD]=4.2 ±1.6 broods/year). Mean batch fecundity and realized annual fecundity were 213.9 (±110.9) and 903.6 (±522.4), respectively. However, females prepared significantly more clutches than the number of broods produced by males. Thus, methods that infer spawning frequency from patterns in female egg production may lead to significant overestimates of realized annual fecundity. The spawning fraction method is broadly applicable to many taxa that exhibit parental care and can be applied nondestructively to species for which conservation is a concern.

Sensitivity of angler benefit estimates from a model of recreational demand to the definition of the substitute sites considered by the angler

Fishery managers are mandated to understand the effects that environmental damage, fishery regulations, and habitat improvement projects have on the net benefits that recreational anglers derive from their sport. Since 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has worked to develop a consistent method for estimating net benefits through site choice models of recreational trip demand. In estimating net benefits with these models, there is a tradeoff between computational efficiency and angler behavior in reality. This article examines this tradeoff by considering the sensitivity of angler-welfare estimates for an increase in striped bass (Morone saxatalis) angling quality across choice sets with five travel distance cutoffs and compares those estimates to a model with an unrestricted choice set. This article shows that 95% confidence intervals for welfare estimates of an increase in the striped bass catch and keep rate overlap for all distance-based choice sets specified here.

Precision estimates and suggested sample sizes for length-frequency data

For most fisheries applications, the shape of a length-frequency distribution is much more important than its mean length or variance. This makes it difficult to evaluate at which point a sample size is adequate. By estimating the coefficient of variation of the counts in each length class and taking a weighted mean of these, a measure of precision was obtained that takes the precision in all length classes into account. The precision estimates were closely associated with the ratio of the sample size to the number of size classes in each sample. As a rule-of-thumb, a minimum sample size of 10 times the number of length classes in the sample is suggested because the precision deteriorates rapidly for smaller sample sizes. In absence of such a rule-of-thumb, samplers have previously under-estimated the required sample size for samples with large fish, while over-sampling small fish of the same species.

The use of multibeam sonar mapping techniques to refine population estimates of the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni)

Multibeam sonar mapping techniques provide detailed benthic habitat information that can be combined with the data on species-specific habitat preferences to provide highly accurate calculations of populations in a particular area. The amount of suitable habitat available for the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) was quantified to aid in obtaining an accurate estimate of the number of remaining individuals at two offshore banks and one island site off the coast of southern California. Habitat was mapped by using multibeam sonar survey techniques and categorized by using rugosity and topographic position analysis. Abalone densities were evaluated by using a remotely operated vehicle and video transect methods. The total amount of suitable habitat at these three sites was far greater than that previously estimated. Therefore, although present estimates of white abalone densities are several orders of magnitude lower than historic estimates, the total population is likely larger than previously reported because of the additional amount of habitat surveyed in this study.

Estimates of commercial longline selectivity for Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) from multiple marking experiments

The term “selectivity” refers to the relationship between the size (or age) of a fish and its vulnerability to a given kind of fishing gear. A selectivity schedule, along with other parameters, is normally estimated in the course of fitting a stock assessment model, and the estimated schedule can have a large effect on both the estimate of present stock abundance and the choice of an appropriate harvest rate. The form of the relationship is usually not known and not well determined by the data, and equally good model fits can often be obtained with different plausible specifications of selectivity. Choosing among the model fits and associated abundance estimates in this situation is problematic (Sigler, 1999; Sullivan et al., 19

Growth and maturity of salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) in the eastern and western North Pacific, and comments on back-calculation methods

Age and growth estimates for salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) in the eastern North Pacific were derived from 182 vertebral centra collected from sharks ranging in length from 62.2 to 213.4 cm pre-caudal length (PCL) and compared to previously published age and growth data for salmon sharks in the western North Pacific. Eastern North Pacific female and male salmon sharks were aged up to 20 and 17 years, respectively. Relative marginal increment (RMI) analysis showed that postnatal rings form annually between January and March. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters derived from vertebral length-at-age data are L∞ =207.4 cm PCL, k=0.17/yr, and t0=−2.3 years for females (n=166), and L∞ =182.8 cm PCL, k=0.23/yr , and t0=−1.9 years for males (n=16). Age at maturity was estimated to range from six to nine years for females (median pre-caudal length of 164.7 cm PCL) and from three to five years old for males (median precaudal length of 124.0 cm PCL). Weight-length relationships for females and males in the eastern North Pacific are W=8.2 × 10_05 × L2.759 –06 × L3.383 (r2 =0.99) and W=3.2 × 10 (r2 =0.99), respectively. Our results show that female and male salmon sharks in the eastern North Pacific possess a faster growth rate, reach sexual maturity earlier, and attain greater weight-at-length than their same-sex counterparts living in the western North Pacific.

Changes in consumer tastes in the demand for fish and meat in Malaysia

In this article the demand for fish and its substitute was estimated using a very flexible demand function, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muelllbaeur (1980), incorporating the habit formation variable to measure the impact of the changes in tastes in comsumer demand for fish and meat products from 1960 to 1990 in Malaysia. Information on price and income elasticities for these meat groups was also obtained. To incorporate consumption habit variables, the dynamic translating procedure proposed by Pollak (1970) and Pollak and Wales (1981) has been adopted. The overall results of the maximum likelihood estimates of the dynamic AIDS model are quite good where 19 of 30 coefficients are significantly different from zero and the minimum budget shares, the constant, are between zero and one for each meat type. Consumers tend to purchase and consume fish, chicken, and pork almost daily. Beef and mutton are only consumed occassionally since they are relatively more expensive. This finding is consistent with the trend observed in the per capita consumption and budget share where fish, chicken, and pork tended to dominate over beef and mutton from 1960 to 1990.