Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

An expressed sequence tag (EST) library for Drosophila serrata, a model system for sexual selection and climatic adaptation studies

The native Australian fly Drosophila serrata belongs to the highly speciose montium subgroup of the melanogaster species group. It has recently emerged as an excellent model system with which to address a number of important questions, including the evolution of traits under sexual selection and traits involved in climatic adaptation along latitudinal gradients. Understanding the molecular genetic basis of such traits has been limited by a lack of genomic resources for this species. Here, we present the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for D. serrata that will enable the identification of genes underlying sexually-selected phenotypes and physiological responses to environmental change and may help resolve controversial phylogenetic relationships within the montium subgroup.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Foot pain and functional limitation in healthy adults with hallux valgus : a cross-sectional study

Background Hallux valgus (HV) is a very common deformity of the first metatarsophalangeal joint that often requires surgical correction. However, the association between structural HV deformity and related foot pain and disability is unclear. Furthermore, no previous studies have investigated concerns about appearance and difficulty with footwear in a population with HV not seeking surgical correction. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate foot pain, functional limitation, concern about appearance and difficulty with footwear in otherwise healthy adults with HV compared to controls. Methods Thirty volunteers with HV (radiographic HV angle >15 degrees) and 30 matched controls were recruited for this study (50 women, 10 men; mean age 44.4 years, range 20 to 76 years). Differences between groups were examined for self-reported foot pain and disability, satisfaction with appearance, footwear difficulty, and pressure-pain threshold at the first metatarsophalangeal joint. Functional measures included balance tests, walking performance, and hallux muscle strength (abduction and plantarflexion). Mean differences (MD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Results All self-report measures showed that HV was associated with higher levels of foot pain and disability and significant concerns about appearance and footwear (p < 0.001). Lower pressure-pain threshold was measured at the medial first metatarsophalangeal joint in participants with HV (MD = -133.3 kPa, CI: -251.5 to -15.1). Participants with HV also showed reduced hallux plantarflexion strength (MD = -37.1 N, CI: -55.4 to -18.8) and abduction strength (MD = -9.8 N, CI: -15.6 to -4.0), and increased mediolateral sway when standing with both feet with eyes closed (MD = 0.34 cm, CI: 0.04 to 0.63). Conclusions These findings show that HV negatively impacts on self-reported foot pain and function, and concerns about foot appearance and footwear in otherwise healthy adults. There was also evidence of impaired hallux muscle strength and increased postural sway in HV subjects compared to controls, although general physical functioning and participation in physical activity were not adversely affected.

Quality based frame selection for video face recognition

Quality based frame selection is a crucial task in video face recognition, to both improve the recognition rate and to reduce the computational cost. In this paper we present a framework that uses a variety of cues (face symmetry, sharpness, contrast, closeness of mouth, brightness and openness of the eye) to select the highest quality facial images available in a video sequence for recognition. Normalized feature scores are fused using a neural network and frames with high quality scores are used in a Local Gabor Binary Pattern Histogram Sequence based face recognition system. Experiments on the Honda/UCSD database shows that the proposed method selects the best quality face images in the video sequence, resulting in improved recognition performance.

An assessment tool for selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical and subtropical regions : Validation using radiance simulation

A new decision-making tool that will assist designers in the selection of appropriate daylighting solutions for buildings in tropical locations has been previously proposed by the authors. Through an evaluation matrix that prioritizes the parameters that best respond to the needs of tropical climates (e.g. reducing solar gain and protection from glare) the tool determines the most appropriate devices for specific climate and building inputs. The tool is effective in demonstrating the broad benefits and limitations of the different daylight strategies for buildings in the tropics. However for thorough analysis and calibration of the tool, validation is necessary. This paper presents a first step in the validation process. RADIANCE simulations were conducted to compare simulation performance with the performance predicted by the tool. To this end, an office building case study in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, and five different daylighting devices including openings, light guiding systems and light transport systems were simulated. Illuminance, light uniformity, daylight penetration and glare analysis were assessed for each device. The results indicate the tool can appropriately rank and recommend daylighting strategies based on specific building inputs for tropical and subtropical regions, making it a useful resource for designers.

Supramolecular selection in molecular alloys

Complexes of the type \[M(phen)3](PF6)2 (M = Ni(II), Fe(II), Ru(II) and phen = 1,10-phenanthroline) were found to co-crystallize to form molecular alloys (solid solutions of molecules) with general formula \[MAxMB1–x(phen)3](PF6)2·0.5H2O in which the relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystals closely match those in the crystallizing solution. Consequently, the composition of the co-crystals can be accurately predicted and controlled by modulating the relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystallizing solution. Although they are chemically and structurally similar, complexes of the type \[M(bipy)3](PF6)2 (M = Ni(II), Fe(II), Ru(II) and bipy = 2,2′-bipyridine) display markedly different behavior upon co-crystallization. In this case, the resulting co-crystals of general formula \[MAxMB1–x(bipy)3](PF6)2 have relative concentrations of the constituent complexes that are markedly different from the relative concentrations of the complexes initially present in the crystallizing solution. For example, when the nickel and iron complexes are co-crystallized from a solution containing a 50:50 ratio of each, the result is the formation of some crystals with a higher proportion of iron and others with a higher proportion of nickel. The relative concentrations of the metal complexes in the crystals can vary from those in the crystallizing solutions by as much as 15%. This result was observed for a range of combinations of metal complexes (Ni/Fe, Ni/Ru, and Fe/Ru) and a range of starting concentrations in the crystallizing solutions (90:10 through to 10:90 in 10% increments). To explain this remarkable result, we introduce the concept of “supramolecular selection”, which is a process driven by molecular recognition that leads to the partially selective aggregation of like molecules during crystallization.

Experiences with implementing common mathematical operations using field programmable gate arrays

Many computationally intensive scientific applications involve repetitive floating point operations other than addition and multiplication which may present a significant performance bottleneck due to the relatively large latency or low throughput involved in executing such arithmetic primitives on commod- ity processors. A promising alternative is to execute such primitives on Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) hardware acting as an application-specific custom co-processor in a high performance reconfig- urable computing platform. The use of FPGAs can provide advantages such as fine-grain parallelism but issues relating to code development in a hardware description language and efficient data transfer to and from the FPGA chip can present significant application development challenges. In this paper, we discuss our practical experiences in developing a selection of floating point hardware designs to be implemented using FPGAs. Our designs include some basic mathemati cal library functions which can be implemented for user defined precisions suitable for novel applications requiring non-standard floating point represen- tation. We discuss the details of our designs along with results from performance and accuracy analysis tests.

Ability of modal analysis to detect osseointegration of implants in transfemoral amputees : a physical model study

Owing to the successful use of non-invasive vibration analysis to monitor the progression of dental implant healing and stabilization, it is now being considered as a method to monitor femoral implants in transfemoral amputees. This study uses composite femur-implant physical models to investigate the ability of modal analysis to detect changes at the interface between the implant and bone simulating those that occur during osseointegration. Using electromagnetic shaker excitation, differences were detected in the resonant frequencies and mode shapes of the model when the implant fit in the bone was altered to simulate the two interface cases considered: firm and loose fixation. The study showed that it is beneficial to examine higher resonant frequencies and their mode shapes (rather than the fundamental frequency only) when assessing fixation. The influence of the model boundary conditions on the modal parameters was also demonstrated. Further work is required to more accurately model the mechanical changes occurring at the bone-implant interface in vivo, as well as further refinement of the model boundary conditions to appropriately represent the in vivo conditions. Nevertheless, the ability to detect changes in the model dynamic properties demonstrates the potential of modal analysis in this application and warrants further investigation.

Evaluation of screening tests for predicting older driver performance and safety assessed by an on-road test

A number of tests and test batteries are available for the prediction of older driver safety, but many of these have not been validated against standardized driving outcome measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate a series of previously described screening tests in terms of their ability to predict the potential for safe and unsafe driving. Participants included 79 community-dwelling older drivers (M=72.16 years, SD=5.46; range 65-88 years; 57 males and 22 females) who completed a previously validated multi-disciplinary driving assessment, a hazard perception test, a hazard change detection test and a battery of vision and cognitive tests. Participants also completed a standardized on-road driving assessment. The multi-disciplinary test battery had the highest predictive ability with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 73%, followed by the hazard perception test which demonstrated a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 61%. These findings suggest that a relatively simple and practical battery of tests from a range of domains has the capacity to predict safe and unsafe driving in older adults.

Health Assessment and Physical Examination

"This first Australia and New Zealand edition of the comprehensive Estes’ Health Assessment and Physical Examination is designed to teach students to assess a patient’s physical, psychological, cultural and emotional dimensions of health as a foundation of nursing care. The skills of interviewing, inspection, percussion, palpation, auscultation, and documentation are defined to help students to make clinical assessments and promote healthy patient outcomes. A strong emphasis on science encompasses all the technical aspects of anatomy, physiology and assessment, while highlighting clinically relevant information. Emphasis on caring is displayed through themes of assessment of the whole person, which also encourages nurses to think about care for themselves as well as patients."--publisher website

Diet, physical activity and substrate oxidation : implications for appetite control, weight loss and body composition

In many countries, governments and health agencies are strongly promoting physical activity as a means to prevent the accumulation of fatness that leads to weight gain and obesity. However, there is often a resistance to respond to health promotion initiatives. For example, in the UK, the Chief Medical Officer has recently reported that 71% of women and 61% of men fail to carry out even the minimal amount of physical activity recommended in the government’s guidelines. Similarly, the Food safety Agency has promoted reductions in the intake of fat, sugar and salt but with very little impact on the pattern of consumption. Why is it that recommendations to improve health are so difficult to implement, and produce the desired outcome?