A joint hazard and time scaling model to compare survival curves.

To provide a more general method for comparing survival experience, we propose a model that independently scales both hazard and time dimensions. To test the curve shape similarity of two time-dependent hazards, h1(t) and h2(t), we apply the proposed hazard relationship, h12(tKt)/ h1(t) = Kh, to h1. This relationship doubly scales h1 by the constant hazard and time scale factors, Kh and Kt, producing a transformed hazard, h12, with the same underlying curve shape as h1. We optimize the match of h12 to h2 by adjusting Kh and Kt. The corresponding survival relationship S12(tKt) = [S1(t)]KtKh transforms S1 into a new curve S12 of the same underlying shape that can be matched to the original S2. We apply this model to the curves for regional and local breast cancer contained in the National Cancer Institute's End Results Registry (1950-1973). Scaling the original regional curves, h1 and S1 with Kt = 1.769 and Kh = 0.263 produces transformed curves h12 and S12 that display congruence with the respective local curves, h2 and S2. This similarity of curve shapes suggests the application of the more complete curve shapes for regional disease as templates to predict the long-term survival pattern for local disease. By extension, this similarity raises the possibility of scaling early data for clinical trial curves according to templates of registry or previous trial curves, projecting long-term outcomes and reducing costs. The proposed model includes as special cases the widely used proportional hazards (Kt = 1) and accelerated life (KtKh = 1) models.

A structural model for a homeotic protein-extradenticle-DNA complex accounts for the choice of HOX protein in the heterodimer.

The genes of the homeotic complex (HOX) encode DNA binding homeodomain proteins that control developmental fates by differentially regulating the transcription of downstream target genes. Despite their unique in vivo functions, disparate HOX proteins often bind to very similar DNA sequences in vitro. Thus, a critical question is how HOX proteins select the correct sets of target genes in vivo. The homeodomain proteins encoded by the Drosophila extradenticle gene and its mammalian homologues, the pbx genes, contribute to HOX specificity by cooperatively binding to DNA with HOX proteins. For example, the HOX protein labial cooperatively binds with extradenticle protein to a 20-bp oligonucleotide that is sufficient to direct a labial-like expression pattern in Drosophila embryos. Here we have analyzed the protein-DNA interactions that are important for forming the labial-extradenticle-DNA complex. The data suggest a model in which labial and extradenticle, separated by only 4 bp, bind this DNA as a heterodimer in a head-to-tail orientation. We have confirmed several aspects of this model by characterizing extradenticle-HOX binding to mutant oligonucleotides. Most importantly, mutations in base pairs predicted to contact the HOX N-terminal arm resulted in a change in HOX preference in the heterodimer, from labial to Ultrabithorax. These results demonstrate that extradenticle prefers to bind cooperatively with different HOX proteins depending on subtle differences in the heterodimer binding site.

A general model of invariant chain association with class II major histocompatibility complex proteins.

The binding of invariant chain to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) proteins is an important step in processing of MHC class II proteins and in antigen presentation. The question of how invariant chain can bind to all MHC class II proteins is central to understanding these processes. We have employed molecular modeling to predict the structure of class II-associated invariant chain peptide (CLIP)-MHC protein complexes and to ask whether the predicted mode of association could be general across all MHC class II proteins. CLIP fits identically into the MHC class II alleles HLA-DR3, I-Ak, I-Au, and I-Ad, with a consistent pattern of hydrogen bonds, contacts, and hydrophobic burial and without bad contacts. Our model predicts the burial of CLIP residues Met-91 and Met-99 in the deep P1 and P9 anchor pockets and other detailed interactions, which we have compared with available data. The predicted pattern of I-A allele-specific effects on CLIP binding is very similar to that observed experimentally by alanine-scanning mutations of CLIP. Together, these results indicate that CLIP may bind in a single, general way across products of MHC class II alleles.

Polpa de guavira (Campomanesia cambessedeana Berg) desidratada em spray dryer: efeitos das condições de processo e composição da alimentação nas propriedades físico químicas e atividade antioxidante

O objetivo desse trabalho foi obter polpa de guavira desidratada por atomização, utilizando maltodextrina ou goma arábica como agentes carreadores. Inicialmente, avaliou-se a influência das condições de processo, temperatura do ar de secagem (130, 155 e 180) °C e vazão volumétrica da mistura (20 e 40) mL/min, o tipo e concentração de agente carreador (10 e 20) % nas características físicas, físico-químicas e atividade antioxidante do produto obtido. As propriedades analisadas foram umidade, atividade de água, higroscopicidade, solubilidade, cor, distribuição e tamanho médio de partículas, morfologia, compostos fenólicos totais e atividade antioxidante. A temperatura do ar de secagem e a vazão volumétrica de alimentação influenciaram significativamente todas as propriedades da guavira em pó. A umidade e atividade de água apresentaram os menores valores na temperatura intermediária, independentemente do tipo e concentração do carreador usado. A solubilidade das amostras adicionadas de maltodextrina foram superiores às amostras com goma arábica. O aumento da concentração de agente carreador, em geral, proporcionou um aumento no parâmetro L* e diminuição dos parâmetros a* e b*, tornando as amostras mais claras e reduzindo as tonalidades vermelha e amarela. A guavira em pó apresentou coloração próxima do amarelo e marrom, com grande variação nos parâmetros de cor C* e H* em função das diferentes condições de secagem. A distribuição do tamanho de partículas não teve um padrão definido e o tamanho médio das amostras com maltodextrina foram maiores do que as com goma arábica para a temperatura do ar a 130 °C. No entanto, para as outras temperaturas (155 e 180) °C não houve um comportamento específico do tamanho das partículas em função da vazão de alimentação, tipo e ou concentração de agente carreador. A análise de microscopia eletrônica de varredura permitiu observar que as partículas obtidas tanto com maltodextrina como goma arábica apresentaram formato esférico, superfície rugosa e com adesão de partículas menores nas de maior tamanho, sendo que a superfície das partículas com goma arábica também apresentaram concavidades. A atividade antioxidante foi superior quando utilizada a temperatura de secagem intermediária. A partir das condições selecionadas na primeira etapa (temperatura do ar de 155 °C, vazão volumétrica da mistura de 40 mL/min e 10% de maltodextrina ou goma arábica) a polpa de guavira em pó foi caracterizada quanto a temperatura de transição vítrea, as isotermas de adsorção e a estabilidade à estocagem do ácido ascórbico, compostos fenólicos totais e da atividade antioxidante da polpa de guavira em pó produzida por spray drying ao longo de 120 dias. As temperaturas de transição vítrea foram de (25,2 ± 2,7 °C e 31,4 ± 0,4) °C para os pós produzidos com goma arábica e maltodextrina, respectivamente. O modelo de BET apresentou ajuste muito bom (R2>0,99) para descrever o comportamento de sorção de água das amostras nas temperaturas de (20, 30 e 40) °C. A polpa de guavira em pó produzida com goma arábica apresentou maior adsorção de água do que as amostras obtidas com maltodextrina. No estudo da estabilidade, as amostras foram acondicionadas em embalagem de polietileno laminado e armazenadas a 25 °C e umidade relativa de 75%. A embalagem de polietileno laminado foi eficiente na manutenção do teor de ácido ascórbico e atividade antioxidante da guavira em pó por um período de 120 dias, independente do carreador adicionado. O teor de compostos fenólicos para a guavira em pó com goma arábica apresentou uma redução nos primeiros 22 dias, contudo a amostra com maltodextrina manteve-se estável durante 120 dias de armazenamento.

A Computational Model of the Belief System Under the Scope of Social Communication

This paper presents an approach to the belief system based on a computational framework in three levels: first, the logic level with the definition of binary local rules, second, the arithmetic level with the definition of recursive functions and finally the behavioural level with the definition of a recursive construction pattern. Social communication is achieved when different beliefs are expressed, modified, propagated and shared through social nets. This approach is useful to mimic the belief system because the defined functions provide different ways to process the same incoming information as well as a means to propagate it. Our model also provides a means to cross different beliefs so, any incoming information can be processed many times by the same or different functions as it occurs is social nets.

Boston, Massachusetts Region, Digital Elevation Model with Bathymetry

This raster layer represents surface elevation and bathymetry data for the Boston Region, Massachusetts. It was created by merging portions of MassGIS Digital Elevation Model 1:5,000 (2005) data with NOAA Estuarine Bathymetric Digital Elevation Models (30 m.) (1998). DEM data was derived from the digital terrain models that were produced as part of the MassGIS 1:5,000 Black and White Digital Orthophoto imagery project. Cellsize is 5 meters by 5 meters. Each cell has a floating point value, in meters, which represents its elevation above or below sea level.

Trade policy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model

The Import Substitution Process in Latin Amer ica was an attempt to enhance GDP growth and productivity by rising trade barriers upon capital-intensive products. Our main goal is to analyze how an increase in import tariff on a particular type of good affects the production choices and trade pattern of an economy. We develop an extension of the dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model – a combination of a static two goods, two-factor Heckscher-Ohlin model and a two-sector growth model – allowing for import tariff. We then calibrate the closed economy model to the US. The results show that the economy will produce less of both consumption and investment goods under autarky for low and high levels of capital stock per worker. We also find that total GDP may be lower under free trade in comparison to autarky.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

Revised age model of DSDP Site 95-612

Alkenone-based Cenozoic records of the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are founded on the carbon isotope fractionation that occurred during marine photosynthesis (epsilon [p37:2]). However, the magnitude of epsilon [p37:2] is also influenced by phytoplankton cell size - a consideration lacking in previous alkenone-based CO2 estimates. In this study, we reconstruct cell size trends in ancient alkenone-producing coccolithophores (the reticulofenestrids) to test the influence that cell size variability played in determining epsilon [p37:2] trends and pCO2 estimates during the middle Eocene to early Miocene. At the investigated deep-sea sites, the reticulofenestrids experienced high diversity and largest mean cell sizes during the late Eocene, followed by a long-term decrease in maximum cell size since the earliest Oligocene. Decreasing haptophyte cell sizes do not account for the long-term increase in the stable carbon isotopic composition of alkenones and associated decrease in epsilon [p37:2] values during the Paleogene, supporting the conclusion that the secular pattern of epsilon [p37:2] values is primarily controlled by decreasing CO2 concentration since the earliest Oligocene. Further, given the physiology of modern alkenone producers, and considering the timings of coccolithophorid cell size change, extinctions, and changes in reconstructed pCO2 and temperature, we speculate that the selection of smaller reticulofenestrid cells during the Oligocene primarily reflects an adaptive response to increased [CO2(aq)] limitation.

Results of Heinrich event 1 simulation from the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

Age model, radiocarbon dates and dinoflagellate cyst measurements from sediment core DA06-139G

A marine sediment core from Vaigat in Disko Bugt, West Greenland, has been analysed in terms of lithology, dinoflagellate cysts and foraminifera in order to evaluate the influence of oceanographic variability on West Greenland glacier stability. The data show that during the past 5200 years the Atlantic foraminiferal abundance in the subsurface waters of the West Greenland Current (WGC) episodically increased, indicating periods of increases in the inflow of subsurface warm Atlantic water at 2000 - 1500 cal. yr BP and 1300 cal. yr BP as well as periods of less pronounced increased bottom-water temperatures around 4700 - 4000 cal. yr BP, 3100 - 2800, 2600, 1000 - 800, 500 - 400, and at 200 cal. yr. The sedimentological and dinoflagellate cyst data indicate that these episodes with enhanced advection of Irminger Sea-derived waters are accompanied by increased iceberg rafting, which we link to increased iceberg calving in relation to destabilization of the Jakobshavn Isbrae. The long-term trend in the data documents the end of a late-Holocene Thermal Maximum between 5200 and 4300 cal. yr BP and a final onset of the Neoglaciation at 3500 cal. yr BP. Increased responses of the iceberg rafting after 3500 cal. yr BP, reflects a westward/seaward advance of the glacier margin in relation to onset of Neoglaciation and a development of the glacier into a floating tongue after 2000 cal. yr BP. A comparison of our record with a record from the eastern North Atlantic indicates that a NAO-like anomaly pattern between subsurface waters in West Greenland and atmospheric temperature in the Eastern North Atlantic may have been operating during most of the late Holocene. However, during the past 1000 years the NAO signal may have weakened as some other mode of climate variability overprints the anti-phase climate signal in this region.

Toxicokinetics of domoic acid in a nonhuman primate model (Macaca fascicularis)

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the EM Algorithm to Train Neural Networks: Misconceptions and a New Algorithm for Multiclass Classification

The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been of considerable interest in recent years as the basis for various algorithms in application areas of neural networks such as pattern recognition. However, there exists some misconceptions concerning its application to neural networks. In this paper, we clarify these misconceptions and consider how the EM algorithm can be adopted to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) and mixture of experts (ME) networks in applications to multiclass classification. We identify some situations where the application of the EM algorithm to train MLP networks may be of limited value and discuss some ways of handling the difficulties. For ME networks, it is reported in the literature that networks trained by the EM algorithm using iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS) algorithm in the inner loop of the M-step, often performed poorly in multiclass classification. However, we found that the convergence of the IRLS algorithm is stable and that the log likelihood is monotonic increasing when a learning rate smaller than one is adopted. Also, we propose the use of an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm to train ME networks. Its performance is demonstrated to be superior to the IRLS algorithm on some simulated and real data sets.

An experimental and finite element poroelastic creep response analysis of an intervertebral hydrogel disc model in axial compression

A hydrogel intervertebral disc (lVD) model consisting of an inner nucleus core and an outer anulus ring was manufactured from 30 and 35% by weight Poly(vinyl alcohol) hydrogel (PVA-H) concentrations and subjected to axial compression in between saturated porous endplates at 200 N for 11 h, 30 min. Repeat experiments (n = 4) on different samples (N = 2) show good reproducibility of fluid loss and axial deformation. An axisymmetric nonlinear poroelastic finite element model with variable permeability was developed using commercial finite element software to compare axial deformation and predicted fluid loss with experimental data. The FE predictions indicate differential fluid loss similar to that of biological IVDs, with the nucleus losing more water than the anulus, and there is overall good agreement between experimental and finite element predicted fluid loss. The stress distribution pattern indicates important similarities with the biological lVD that includes stress transference from the nucleus to the anulus upon sustained loading and renders it suitable as a model that can be used in future studies to better understand the role of fluid and stress in biological IVDs. (C) 2005 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.