The role of evacuation and fire modelling in the development of safer air travel

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

Computer modelling of human behaviour in aircraft fire accidents

The mathematical simulation of the evacuation process has a wide and largely untapped scope of application within the aircraft industry. The function of the mathematical model is to provide insight into complex behaviour by allowing designers, legislators, and investigators to ask ‘what if’ questions. Such a model, EXODUS, is currently under development, and this paper describes its evolution and potential applications. EXODUS is an egress model designed to simulate the evacuation of large numbers of individuals from an enclosure, such as an aircraft. The model tracks the trajectory of each individual as they make their way out of the enclosure or are overcome by fire hazards, such as heat and toxic gases. The software is expert system-based, the progressive motion and behaviour of each individual being determined by a set of heuristics or rules. EXODUS comprises five core interacting components: (i) the Movement Submodel — controls the physical movement of individual passengers from their current position to the most suitable neighbouring location; (ii) the Behaviour Submodel — determines an individual's response to the current prevailing situation; (iii) the Passenger Submodel — describes an individual as a collection of 22 defining attributes and variables; (iv) the Hazard Submodel — controls the atmospheric and physical environment; and (v) the Toxicity Submodel — determines the effects on an individual exposed to the fire products, heat, and narcotic gases through the Fractional Effective Dose calculations. These components are briefly described and their capabilities and limitations are demonstrated through comparison with experimental data and several hypothetical evacuation scenarios.

Automatic code generation of overlapped communications in a parallelisation tool

This paper addresses the exploitation of overlapping communication with calculation within parallel FORTRAN 77 codes for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and computational structured dynamics (CSD). The obvious objective is to overlap interprocessor communication with calculation on each processor in a distributed memory parallel system and so improve the efficiency of the parallel implementation. A general strategy for converting synchronous to overlapped communication is presented together with tools to enable its automatic implementation in FORTRAN 77 codes. This strategy is then implemented within the parallelisation toolkit, CAPTools, to facilitate the automatic generation of parallel code with overlapped communications. The success of these tools are demonstrated on two codes from the NAS-PAR and PERFECT benchmark suites. In each case, the tools produce parallel code with overlapped communications which is as good as that which could be generated manually. The parallel performance of the codes also improve in line with expectation.

An intelligent assistant for design and material engineers in the submarine cable industry

This paper describes an industrial application of case-based reasoning in engineering. The application involves an integration of case-based reasoning (CBR) retrieval techniques with a relational database. The database is specially designed as a repository of experiential knowledge and with the CBR application in mind such as to include qualitative search indices. The application is for an intelligent assistant for design and material engineers in the submarine cable industry. The system consists of three components; a material classifier and a database of experiential knowledge and a CBR system is used to retrieve similar past cases based on component descriptions. Work has shown that an uncommon retrieval technique, hierarchical searching, well represents several search indices and that this techniques aids the implementation of advanced techniques such as context sensitive weights. The system is currently undergoing user testing at the Alcatel Submarine Cables site in Greenwich. Plans are for wider testing and deployment over several sites internationally.

Modelling the fluid dynamics and coupled phenomena in arc weld pools

A 3D model of melt pool created by a moving arc type heat sources has been developed. The model solves the equations of turbulent fluid flow, heat transfer and electromagnetic field to demonstrate the flow behaviour phase-change in the pool. The coupled effects of buoyancy, capillary (Marangoni) and electromagnetic (Lorentz) forces are included within an unstructured finite volume mesh environment. The movement of the welding arc along the workpiece is accomplished via a moving co-ordinator system. Additionally a method enabling movement of the weld pool surface by fluid convection is presented whereby the mesh in the liquid region is allowed to move through a free surface. The surface grid lines move to restore equilibrium at the end of each computational time step and interior grid points then adjust following the solution of a Laplace equation.

The application of fire and evacuation simulation in ship design

Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisation of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models used in pperforming fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Heat and mass transfer in two-phase porous materials under intensive microwave heating

Computational results for the intensive microwave heating of porous materials are presented in this work. A multi-phase porous media model has been developed to predict the heating mechanism. Combined finite difference time-domain and finite volume methods were used to solve equations that describe the electromagnetic field and heat and mass transfer in porous media. The coupling between the two schemes is through a change in dielectric properties which were assumed to be dependent both on temperature and moisture content. The model was able to reflect the evolution of both temperature and moisture fields as well as energy penetration as the moisture in the porous medium evaporates. Moisture movement results from internal pressure gradients produced by the internal heating and phase change.

Advanced evacuation simulation software and its use in warships

The newly formed Escape and Evacuation Naval Authority regulates the provision of abandonment equipment and procedures for all Ministry of Defence Vessels. As such, it assures that access routes on board are evaluated early in the design process to maximize their efficiency and to eliminate, as far as possible, any congestion that might occur during escape. This analysis can be undertaken using a computer-based simulation for given escape scenarios and replicates the layout of the vessel and the interactions between each individual and the ship structure. One such software tool that facilitates this type of analysis is maritimeEXODUS. This tool, through large scale testing and validation, emulates human shipboard behaviour during emergency scenarios; however it is largely based around the behaviour of civilian passengers and fixtures and fittings of merchant vessels. Hence there existed a clear requirement to understand the behaviour of well-trained naval personnel as opposed to civilian passengers and be able to model the fixtures and fittings that are exclusive to warships, thus allowing improvements to both maritimeEXODUS and other software products. Human factor trials using the Royal Navy training facilities at Whale Island, Portsmouth were recently undertaken to collect data that improves our understanding of the aforementioned differences. It is hoped that this data will form the basis of a long-term improvement package that will provide global validation of these simulation tools and assist in the development of specific Escape and Evacuation standards for warships. © 2005: Royal Institution of Naval Architects.

Pseudo-spectral solutions for fluid flow and heat transfer in electro-metallurgical applications

The pseudo-spectral solution method offers a flexible and fast alternative to the more usual finite element/volume/difference methods, particularly when the long-time transient behaviour of a system is of interest. Since the exact solution is obtained at the grid collocation points superior accuracy can be achieved on modest grid resolution. Furthermore, the grid can be freely adapted with time and in space, to particular flow conditions or geometric variations. This is especially advantageous where strongly coupled, time-dependent, multi-physics solutions are investigated. Examples include metallurgical applications involving the interaction of electromagnetic fields and conducting liquids with a free sutface. The electromagnetic field then determines the instantaneous liquid volume shape and the liquid shape affects in turn the electromagnetic field. In AC applications a thin "skin effect" region results on the free surface that dominates grid requirements. Infinitesimally thin boundary cells can be introduced using Chebyshev polynomial expansions without detriment to the numerical accuracy. This paper presents a general methodology of the pseudo-spectral approach and outlines the solution procedures used. Several instructive example applications are given: the aluminium electrolysis MHD problem, induction melting and stirring and the dynamics of magnetically levitated droplets in AC and DC fields. Comparisons to available analytical solutions and to experimental measurements will be discussed.

Time dependent electric, magnetic and hydrodynamic interaction in aluminium electrolysis cells

The waves in commercial cells for electrolytic aluminium production originate at the interface between the liquid aluminium and electrolyte, but their effect can spread into the surrounding busbar network as electric current perturbation, and the total magnetic field acquires a time dependent component. The presented model for the wave development accounts for the nonuniform electric current distribution at the cathode and the whole network of the surrounding busbars. The magnetic field is computed for the continuous current in the fluid zones, all busbars and the ferromagnetic construction elements. When the electric current and the associated magnetic field are computed according to the actual electrical circuit and updated for all times, the instability growth rate is significantly affected. The presented numerical model for the wave and electromagnetic interaction demonstrates how different physical coupling factors are affecting the wave development in the electrolysis cells. These small amplitude self-sustained interface oscillations are damped in the presence of intense turbulent viscosity created by the horizontal circulation velocity field. Additionally, the horizontal circulation vortices create a pressure gradient contributing to the deformation of the interface. Instructive examples for the 500 kA demonstration cell are presented.

Pseudo-spectral solutions for fluid flow and heat transfer in electro-metallurgical applications

The pseudo-spectral solution method offers a flexible and fast alternative to the more usual finite element and volume methods, particularly when the long-time transient behaviour of a system is of interest. The exact solution is obtained at grid collocation points leading to superior accuracy on modest grids. Furthermore, the grid can be freely adapted in time and space to particular flow conditions or geometric variations, especially useful where strongly coupled, time-dependent, multi-physics solutions are investigated. Examples include metallurgical applications involving the interaction of electromagnetic fields and conducting liquids with a free surface. The electromagnetic field determines the instantaneous liquid volume shape, which then affects the electromagnetic field. A general methodology of the pseudo-spectral approach is presented, with several instructive example applications: the aluminium electrolysis MHD problem, induction melting in a cold crucible and the dynamics of AC/DC magnetically levitated droplets. Finally, comparisons with available analytical solutions and to experimental measurements are discussed.

On Reynolds number and scaling effects in microchannel flows

This paper presents a numerical study of the Reynolds number and scaling effects in microchannel flows. The configuration includes a rectangular, high-aspect ratio microchannel with heat sinks, similar to an experimental setup. Water at ambient temperature is used as a coolant fluid and the source of heating is introduced via electronic cartridges in the solids. Two channel heights, measuring 0.3 mm and 1 mm are considered at first. The Reynolds number varies in a range of 500-2200, based on the hydraulic diameter. Simulations are focused on the Reynolds number and channel height effects on the Nusselt number. It is found that the Reynolds number has noticeable influences on the local Nusselt number distributions, which are in agreement with other studies. The numerical predictions of the dimensionless temperature of the fluid agree fairly well with experimental measurements; however the dimensionless temperature of the solid does exhibit a significant discrepancy near the channel exit, similar to those reported by other researchers. The present study demonstrates that there is a significant scaling effect at small channel height, typically 0.3 mm, in agreement with experimental observations. This scaling effect has been confirmed by three additional simulations being carried out at channel heights of 0.24 mm, 0.14 mm and 0.1 mm, respectively. A correlation between the channel height and the normalized Nusselt number is thus proposed, which agrees well with results presented.

The study of flow and temperature fields in conducting droplets suspended in a DC/AC combination field

Electromagnetic Levitation (EML) is a valuable method for measuring the thermo-physical properties of metals - surface tensions, viscosity, thermal/electrical conductivity, specific heat, hemispherical emissivity, etc. – beyond their melting temperature. In EML, a small amount of the test specimen is melted by Joule heating in a suspended AC coil. Once in liquid state, a small perturbation causes the liquid envelope to oscillate and the frequency of oscillation is then used to compute its surface tension by the well know Rayleigh formula. Similarly, the rate at which the oscillation is dampened relates to the viscosity. To measure thermal conductivity, a sinusoidally varying laser source may be used to heat the polar axis of the droplet and the temperature response measured at the polar opposite – the resulting phase shift yields thermal conductivity. All these theoretical methods assume that convective effects due to flow within the droplet are negligible compared to conduction, and similarly that the flow conditions are laminar; a situation that can only be realised under microgravity conditions. Hence the EML experiment is the method favoured for Spacelab experiments (viz. TEMPUS). Under terrestrial conditions, the full gravity force has to be countered by a much larger induced magnetic field. The magnetic field generates strong flow within the droplet, which for droplets of practical size becomes irrotational and turbulent. At the same time the droplet oscillation envelope is no longer ellipsoidal. Both these conditions invalidate simple theoretical models and prevent widespread EML use in terrestrial laboratories. The authors have shown in earlier publications that it is possible to suppress most of the turbulent convection generated in the droplet skin layer, through use of a static magnetic field. Using a pseudo-spectral discretisation method it is possible compute very accurately the dynamic variation in the suspended fluid envelope and simultaneously compute the time-varying electromagnetic, flow and thermal fields. The use of a DC field as a dampening agent was also demonstrated in cold crucible melting, where suppression of turbulence was achieved in a much larger liquid metal volume and led to increased superheat in the melt and reduction of heat losses to the water-cooled walls. In this paper, the authors describe the pseudo-spectral technique as applied to EML to compute the combined effects of AC and DC fields, accounting for all the flow-induced forces acting on the liquid volume (Lorentz, Maragoni, surface tension, gravity) and show example simulations.

The Richit-Richards family of distributions and its use in forestry

Johnson's SB and the logit-logistic are four-parameter distribution models that may be obtained from the standard normal and logistic distributions by a four-parameter transformation. For relatively small data sets, such as diameter at breast height measurements obtained from typical sample plots, distribution models with four or less parameters have been found to be empirically adequate. However, in situations in which the distributions are complex, for example in mixed stands or when the stand has been thinned or when working with aggregated data, then distribution models with more shape parameters may prove to be necessary. By replacing the symmetric standard logistic distribution of the logit-logistic with a one-parameter “standard Richards” distribution and transforming by a five-parameter Richards function, we obtain a new six-parameter distribution model, the “Richit-Richards”. The Richit-Richards includes the “logit-Richards”, the “Richit-logistic”, and the logit-logistic as submodels. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit the model, and some problems in the maximum likelihood estimation of bounding parameters are discussed. An empirical case study of the Richit-Richards and its submodels is conducted on pooled diameter at breast height data from 107 sample plots of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.). It is found that the new models provide significantly better fits than the four-parameter logit-logistic for large data sets.