Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Global solutions describing the collapse of a spherical or cylindrical cavity

The collapse of a spherical (cylindrical) cavity in air is studied analytically. The global solution for the entire domain between the sound front, separating the undisturbed and the disturbed gas, and the vacuum front is constructed in the form of infinite series in time with coefficients depending on an ldquoappropriaterdquo similarity variable. At timet=0+, the exact planar solution for a uniformly moving cavity is assumed to hold. The global analytic solution of this initial boundary value problem is found until the collapse time (=(gamma–1)/2) for gamma le 1+(2/(1+v)), wherev=1 for cylindrical geometry, andv=2 for spherical geometry. For higher values of gamma, the solution series diverge at timet — 2(beta–1)/ (v(1+beta)+(1–beta)2) where beta=2/(gamma–1). A close agreement is found in the prediction of qualitative features of analytic solution and numerical results of Thomaset al. [1].

A numerical investigation of ductile fracture initiation in a high-strength low-alloy steel

In this work, static and drop-weight impact experiments, which have been conducted using three-point bend fracture specimens of a high-strength low-alloy steel, are analysed by performing finite-element simulations. The Gurson constitutive model that accounts for the ductile failure mechanisms of microvoid nucleation, growth and is employed within the framework of a finite deformation plasticity theory. Two populations of second-phase particles are considered, including large inclusions which initiate voids at an early stage and small particles which require large strains to nucleate voids. The most important objective of the work is to assess quantitatively the effects of material inertia, strain rate sensitivity and local adiabatic temperature rise (due to conversion of plastic work into heat) on dynamic ductile crack initiation. This is accomplished by comparing the evolution histories of void volume fraction near the notch tip in the static analysis with the dynamic analyses. The results indicate that increased strain hardening caused by strain rate sensitivity, which becomes important under dynamic loading, plays a benign role in considerably slowing down the void growth rate near the notch tip. This is partially opposed by thermal softening caused by adiabatic heating near the notch tip.

A quasi-steady performance prediction model for dynamic characteristics of a volute pump

A performance prediction model generally applicable for volute-type centrifugal pumps has been extended to predict the dynamic characteristics of a pump during its normal starting and stopping periods. Experiments have been conducted on a volute pump with different valve openings to study the dynamic behaviour of the pump during normal start-up and stopping, when a small length of discharge pipeline is connected to the discharge flange of the pump. Such experiments have also been conducted when the test pump was part of a hydraulic system, an experimental rig, where it is pumping against three similar pumps, known as supply pumps, connected in series, with the supply pumps kept idle or running. Instantaneous rotational speed, flowrate, and delivery and suction pressures of the pump were recorded and it was observed in all the tested cases that the change of pump behaviour during the transient period was quasi-steady, which validates the quasi-steady approach presented in this paper. The nature of variation of parameters during the transients has been discussed. The model-predicted dynamic head-capacity curves agree well with the experimental data for almost all the tested cases.

Data compression by linear prediction for storage and transmission of EEG signals

The EEG time series has been subjected to various formalisms of analysis to extract meaningful information regarding the underlying neural events. In this paper the linear prediction (LP) method has been used for analysis and presentation of spectral array data for the better visualisation of background EEG activity. It has also been used for signal generation, efficient data storage and transmission of EEG. The LP method is compared with the standard Fourier method of compressed spectral array (CSA) of the multichannel EEG data. The autocorrelation autoregressive (AR) technique is used for obtaining the LP coefficients with a model order of 15. While the Fourier method reduces the data only by half, the LP method just requires the storage of signal variance and LP coefficients. The signal generated using white Gaussian noise as the input to the LP filter has a high correlation coefficient of 0.97 with that of original signal, thus making LP as a useful tool for storage and transmission of EEG. The biological significance of Fourier method and the LP method in respect to the microstructure of neuronal events in the generation of EEG is discussed.

A characteristic based numerical method with tracking for nonlinear wave equations

Many physical problems can be modeled by scalar, first-order, nonlinear, hyperbolic, partial differential equations (PDEs). The solutions to these PDEs often contain shock and rarefaction waves, where the solution becomes discontinuous or has a discontinuous derivative. One can encounter difficulties using traditional finite difference methods to solve these equations. In this paper, we introduce a numerical method for solving first-order scalar wave equations. The method involves solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to advance the solution along the characteristics and to propagate the characteristics in time. Shocks are created when characteristics cross, and the shocks are then propagated by applying analytical jump conditions. New characteristics are inserted in spreading rarefaction fans. New characteristics are also inserted when values on adjacent characteristics lie on opposite sides of an inflection point of a nonconvex flux function, Solutions along characteristics are propagated using a standard fourth-order Runge-Kutta ODE solver. Shocks waves are kept perfectly sharp. In addition, shock locations and velocities are determined without analyzing smeared profiles or taking numerical derivatives. In order to test the numerical method, we study analytically a particular class of nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs, deriving closed form solutions for certain special initial data. We also find bounded, smooth, self-similar solutions using group theoretic methods. The numerical method is validated against these analytical results. In addition, we compare the errors in our method with those using the Lax-Wendroff method for both convex and nonconvex flux functions. Finally, we apply the method to solve a PDE with a convex flux function describing the development of a thin liquid film on a horizontally rotating disk and a PDE with a nonconvex flux function, arising in a problem concerning flow in an underground reservoir.

A novel neural network design for long range prediction of rainfall pattern

The importance of long-range prediction of rainfall pattern for devising and planning agricultural strategies cannot be overemphasized. However, the prediction of rainfall pattern remains a difficult problem and the desired level of accuracy has not been reached. The conventional methods for prediction of rainfall use either dynamical or statistical modelling. In this article we report the results of a new modelling technique using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks are especially useful where the dynamical processes and their interrelations for a given phenomenon are not known with sufficient accuracy. Since conventional neural networks were found to be unsuitable for simulating and predicting rainfall patterns, a generalized structure of a neural network was then explored and found to provide consistent prediction (hindcast) of all-India annual mean rainfall with good accuracy. Performance and consistency of this network are evaluated and compared with those of other (conventional) neural networks. It is shown that the generalized network can make consistently good prediction of annual mean rainfall. Immediate application and potential of such a prediction system are discussed.

A numerical study of division of flow in open channels

A two-dimensional numerical model which employs the depth-averaged forms of continuity and momentum equations along with k-e turbulence closure scheme is used to simulate the flow at the open channel divisions. The model is generalised to flows of arbitrary geometries and MacCormack finite volume method is used for solving governing equations. Application of cartesian version of the model to analyse the flow at right-angled junction is presented. The numerical predictions are compared with experimental data of earlier investigators and measurements made as part of the present study. Performance of the model in predicting discharge distribution, surface profiles, separation zone parameters and energy losses is evaluated and discussed in detail. To illustrate the application of the numerical model to analyse the flow in acute angled offtakes and streamlined branch entries, a few computational results are presented.

Prediction of nonlocal scaling parameter for armchair and zigzag single-walled carbon nanotubes based on molecular structural mechanics, nonlocal elasticity and wave propagation

Atomic vibration in the Carbon Nanotubes (CNTs) gives rise to non-local interactions. In this paper, an expression for the non-local scaling parameter is derived as a function of the geometric and electronic properties of the rolled graphene sheet in single-walled CNTs. A self-consistent method is developed for the linearization of the problem of ultrasonic wave propagation in CNTs. We show that (i) the general three-dimensional elastic problem leads to a single non-local scaling parameter (e(0)), (ii) e(0) is almost constant irrespective of chirality of CNT in the case of longitudinal wave propagation, (iii) e(0) is a linear function of diameter of CNT for the case of torsional mode of wave propagation, (iv) e(0) in the case of coupled longitudinal-torsional modes of wave propagation, is a function which exponentially converges to that of axial mode at large diameters and to torsional mode at smaller diameters. These results are valid in the long-wavelength limit. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of protein-protein interactions between human host and a pathogen and its application to three pathogenic bacteria

Molecular understanding of disease processes can be accelerated if all interactions between the host and pathogen are known. The unavailability of experimental methods for large-scale detection of interactions across host and pathogen organisms hinders this process. Here we apply a simple method to predict protein-protein interactions across a host and pathogen organisms. We use homology detection approaches against the protein-protein interaction databases. DIP and iPfam in order to predict interacting proteins in a host-pathogen pair. In the present work, we first applied this approach to the test cases involving the pairs phage T4 - Escherichia coli and phage lambda - E. coli and show that previously known interactions could be recognized using our approach. We further apply this approach to predict interactions between human and three pathogens E. coli, Salmonella enterica typhimurium and Yersinia pestis. We identified several novel interactions involving proteins of host or pathogen that could be thought of as highly relevant to the disease process. Serendipitously, many interactions involve hypothetical proteins of yet unknown function. Hypothetical proteins are predicted from computational analysis of genome sequences with no laboratory analysis on their functions yet available. The predicted interactions involving such proteins could provide hints to their functions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of separation factor in foam separation of proteins

A phenomenological model has been developed for predicting separation factors obtained in concentrating protein solutions using batch-foam columns. The model considers the adsorption of surface active proteins onto the air-water interface of bubbles, and drainage of liquid from the foam, which are the two predominant processes responsible for separation in foam columns. The model has been verified with data collected on casein and bovine serum albumin (BSA) solutions, for which adsorption isotherms are available in the literature. It has been found that an increase in liquid pool height above the gas distributor and the time allowed for drainage result in a better separation. Further, taller foam columns yield poorer separation at constant time of drainage. The model successfully predicts the observed results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Prediction of the senses of helical amphiphilic assemblies from effective intermolecular pair potential: Studies on chiral monolayers and bilayers

It is well-known that the senses (or the handedness) of the helical assemblies formed from compressed monolayers and bilayers of chiral amphiphiles are highly specific about the chirality of the monomers concerned. We present here a molecular approach that can successfully predict the senses of such helical morphologies. The present approach is based on a reduced tractable description in terms of an effective pair potential (EPP) which depends on the distance of separation and the relative orientations of the two amphiphiles. This approach explicitly considers the pairwise intermolecular interactions between the groups attached to the chiral centers of the two neighboring amphiphiles. It is found that for a pair of the same kind of enantiomers the minimum energy configuration favors a twist angle between molecules and that this twist from neighbor to neighbor gives rise to the helicity of the aggregate. From the known twist angles at the minimum energy configuration the successive arrangement of an array of molecules can be predicted. Therefore, the sense of the helicity can be predicted from the molecular interactions. The predicted senses of the helical structures are in complete agreement with all known experimental results.

A Dual Scale Model for Macrosegregation in Alloy Solidification

A numerical approach for coupling the temperature and concentration fields using a micro/macro dual scale model for a solidification problem is presented. The dual scale modeling framework is implemented on a hybrid explicit-implicit solidification scheme. The advantage of this model lies in more accurate consideration of microsegregation occurring at micro-scale using a subgrid model. The model is applied to the case of solidification of a Pb-40% Sn alloy in a rectangular cavity. The present simulation results are compared with the corresponding experimental results reported in the literature, showing improvement in macrosegregation predictions. Subsequently, a comparison of macrosegregation prediction between the results of the present method with those of a parameter model is performed, showing similar trends.