Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Approximate analysis of coupled non-linear non-conservative systems subjected to step-function excitation

The paper deals with the approximate analysis of non-linear non-conservative systems oftwo degrees of freedom subjected to step-function excitation. The method of averaging of Krylov and Bogoliubov is used to arrive at the approximate equations for amplitude and phase. An example of a spring-mass-damper system is presented to illustrate the method and a comparison with numerical results brings out the validity of the approach.

Identification of a class of non-linear systems

This paper considers the on-line identification of a non-linear system in terms of a Hammerstein model, with a zero-memory non-linear gain followed by a linear system. The linear part is represented by a Laguerre expansion of its impulse response and the non-linear part by a polynomial. The identification procedure involves determination of the coefficients of the Laguerre expansion of correlation functions and an iterative adjustment of the parameters of the non-linear gain by gradient methods. The method is applicable to situations involving a wide class of input signals. Even in the presence of additive correlated noise, satisfactory performance is achieved with the variance of the error converging to a value close to the variance of the noise. Digital computer simulation establishes the practicability of the scheme in different situations.

Transient response of coupled non-linear non-conservative systems

This paper deals with an approximate method of analysis of non-linear, non-conservative systems of two degrees of freedom. The approximate equations for amplitude and phase are obtained by a generalized averaging technique based on the ultraspherical polynomial approximation. The method is illustrated by an example of a spring-mass-damper system.

Ultraspherical polynomials approach to the study of third-order non-linear systems

In this study, the Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolskii-Popov asymptotic method is used to determine the transient response of third-order non-linear systems. Instead of averaging the non-linear functions over a cycle, they are expanded in ultraspherical polynomials and the constant term is retained. The resulting equations are solved to obtain the approximate solution. A numerical example is considered and the approximate solution is compared with the digital solution. The results show that there is good agreement between the two values.

Study of third-order non-linear systems- Variation of parameters approach

In this paper, the transient response of a third-order non-linear system is obtained by first reducing the given third-order equation to three first-order equations by applying the method of variation of parameters. On the assumption that the variations of amplitude and phase are small, the functions are expanded in ultraspherical polynomials. The expansion is restricted to the constant term. The resulting equations are solved to obtain the response of the given third-order system. A numerical example is considered to illustrate the method. The results show that the agreement between the approximate and digital solution is good thus vindicating the approximation.

A differential transformation technique for the analysis of a class of non-linear time varying systems

The scope of the differential transformation technique, developed earlier for the study of non-linear, time invariant systems, has been extended to the domain of time-varying systems by modifications to the differential transformation laws proposed therein. Equivalence of a class of second-order, non-linear, non-autonomous systems with a linear autonomous model of second order is established through these transformation laws. The feasibility of application of this technique in obtaining the response of such non-linear time-varying systems is discussed.

Decoupling in non-linear systems with two degrees of freedom

The problem of decoupling a class of non-linear two degrees of freedom systems is studied. The coupled non-linear differential equations of motion of the system are shown to be equivalent to a pair of uncoupled equations. This equivalence is established through transformation techniques involving the transformation of both the dependent and independent variables. The sufficient conditions on the form of the non-linearity, for the case wherein the transformed equations are linear, are presented. Several particular cases of interest are also illustrated.

Non-linear systems with quadratic and cubic damping - an analytical approach

The possible equivalence of second-order non-linear systems having quadratic and cubic damping with third-order linear systems is studied in this paper. It is shown that this equivalence can be established through transformation techniques under certain constraints on the form of the non-linearity of the given system.

Application of Laplace transform technique to the solution of certain third-order non-linear systems

A number of papers have appeared on the application of operational methods and in particular the Laplace transform to problems concerning non-linear systems of one kind or other. This, however, has met with only partial success in solving a class of non-linear problems as each approach has some limitations and drawbacks. In this study the approach of Baycura has been extended to certain third-order non-linear systems subjected to non-periodic excitations, as this approximate method combines the advantages of engineering accuracy with ease of application to such problems. Under non-periodic excitations the method provides a procedure for estimating quickly the maximum response amplitude, which is important from the point of view of a designer. Limitations of such a procedure are brought out and the method is illustrated by an example taken from a physical situation.

On the positivity and stability of non-stationary systems

The positivity of operators in Hilbert spaces is an important concept finding wide application in various branches of Mathematical System Theory. A frequency- domain condition that ensures the positivity of time-varying operators in L2 with a state-space description, is derived in this paper by using certain newly developed inequalities concerning the input-state relation of such operators. As an interesting application of these results, an L2 stability criterion for time-varying feedback systems consisting of a finite-sector non-linearity is also developed.

The pulse response of non-linear third order systems

The response of a third order non-linear system subjected to a pulse excitation is analysed. A transformation of the displacement variable is effected. The transformation function chosen is the solution of the linear problem subjected to the same pulse. With this transformation the equation of motion is brought into a form in which the method of variation of parameters is applicable for the solution of the problem. The method is applied to a single axis gyrostabilized platform subjected to an exponentially decaying pulse. The analytical results are compared with digital and analog computer solutions.

Approximate methods for step function response of undamped non-linear spring mass systems with arbitrary hardening type spring characteristic

The possibility of applying two approximate methods for determining the salient features of response of undamped non-linear spring mass systems subjected to a step input, is examined. The results obtained on the basis of these approximate methods are compared with the exact results that are available for some particular types of spring characteristics. The extension of the approximate methods for non-linear systems with general polynomial restoring force characteristics is indicated.

A new approach to the study of non-linear non-autonomous systems

In this paper, a new approach to the study of non-linear, non-autonomous systems is presented. The method outlined is based on the idea of solving the governing differential equations of order n by a process of successive reduction of their order. This is achieved by the use of “differential transformation functions”. The value of the technique presented in the study of problems arising in the field of non-linear mechanics and the like, is illustrated by means of suitable examples drawn from different fields such as vibrations, rigid body dynamics, etc.

Study of a class of non-linear systems reducible to equivalent linear systems

In this paper, a method of arriving at transformations which convert a class of non-linear systems into equivalent linear systems, has been presented along with suitable examples, which illustrate its application.