Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Low intensity CBT by mail

Introduction: There are many low intensity (LI) cognitive behavoural therapy (CBT) solutions to the problem of limited service access. In this chapter, we aim to discuss a relatively low-technology approach to access using standard postal services-CBT by mail, or M-CBT. Bibliotherapies including M-CBT teach key concepts and self-management techniques, together with screening tools and forms to structure home practice. M-CBT differs from other bibliotherapies by segmenting interventions and mailing them at regular intervals. Most involve participants returning copies of monitoring forms or completed handouts. Therapist feedback is provided, often in personal letters that accompany the printed materials. Participants may also be given access to telephone or email support. ----- ----- M-CBT clearly fulfills criteria for an LI CBT (see Bennett-Levy et al., Chapter 1, for a definition of LI interventions). Once written, they involve little therapist time and rely heavily on self-management. However, content and overall treatment duration need not be compromised. Long-term interventions with multiple components can be delivered via this method, provided their content can be communicated in letters and engagement is maintained.

Implementing low intensity CBT in case management of clients with severe mental illness

In a previous chapter (Dean and Kavanagh, Chapter 37), the authors made a case for applying low intensity (LI) cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) to people with serious mental illness (SMI). As in other populations, LI CBT interventions typically deal with circumscribed problems or behaviours. LI CBT retains an emphasis on self-management, has restricted content and segment length, and does not necessarily require extensive CBT training. In applying these interventions to SMI, adjustments may be needed to address cognitive and symptomatic difficulties often faced by these groups. What may take a single session in a less affected population may require several sessions or a thematic application of the strategy within case management. In some cases, the LI CBT may begin to appear more like a high-intensity (HI) intervention, albeit simple and with many LI CBT characteristics still retained. So, if goal setting were introduced in one or two sessions, it could clearly be seen as an LI intervention. When applied to several different situations and across many sessions, it may be indistinguishable from a simple HI treatment, even if it retains the same format and is effectively applied by a practitioner with limited CBT training. ----- ----- In some ways, LI CBT should be well suited to case management of patients with SMI. treating staff typically have heavy workloads, and find it difficult to apply time-consuming treatments (Singh et al. 2003). LI CBT may allow provision of support to greater numbers of service users, and allow staff to spend more time on those who need intensive and sustained support. However, the introduction of any change in practice has to address significant challenges, and LI CBT is no exception. ----- ----- Many of the issues that we face in applying LI CBT to routine case management in a mnetal health service and their potential solutions are essentially the same as in a range of other problem domains (Turner and Sanders 2006)- and, indeed, are similar to those in any adoption of innovation (Rogers 2003). Over the last 20 years, several commentators have described barriers to implementing evidence-based innovations in mental health services (Corrigan et al. 1992; Deane et al. 2006; Kavanagh et al. 1993). The aim of the current chapter is to present a cognitive behavioural conceptualisation of problems and potential solutions for dissemination of LI CBT.

Adapting low intensity CBT interventions for clients with severe mental illness

Many people with severe mental illness (SMI) such as schizophrenia, whose psychotic symptoms are effectively managed, continue to experience significant functional problems. This chapter argues that low intensity (LI) cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT; e.g. for depression, anxiety, or other issues) is applicable to these clients, and that LI CBT can be consistent with long-term case management. However, adjustments to LI CBT strategies are often necessary and boundaries between LI CBT and high intensity (HI) CBT (with more extensive practitioner contact and complexity) may become blurred. Our focus is on LI CBT's self-management emphasis, its restricted content and segment length, and potential use after limited training. In addition to exploring these issues, it draws on the authors' Collaborative Recovery (CR; Oades et al. 2005) and 'Start Over and Survive' programs (Kavanagh et al. 2004) as examples. ----- ----- Evidence for the effectiveness of LI CBT with severe mental illness is often embedded within multicomponent programs. For example, goal setting and therapeutic homework are common components of such programs, but they can also be used as discrete LI CBT interventions. A review of 40 randomised controlled trials involving recipients with schizophrenia or other sever mental illnesses has identified key components of illness management programs (Mueser et al. 2002). However, it is relatively rare for specific components of these complex interventions to be assessed in isolation. Given these constraints, the evidence for specific LI CBT interventions with severe mental ilnness is relatively limited.

Brief motivational interviewing for depression and anxiety

Motivational interviewing (MI)can be applied as a brief, low intensity (LI) intervention of 1-4 individualised sessions (typically 45-60 minutes in duration), including screening, assessment feedback, and psycho-education. MI is a client-centred, directive therapeutic style that enhances readiness for change by helping clients explore and resolve ambivalence (Miller and Rollnick 2002). A summary of the key components of brief MI interventions is provided in Table 16.1. There is a well-established evidence base for MI in the treatment of substance misuse (particularly alcohol misuse; Moyer et al. 2002), as well as a growing evidence for the use of MI in the treatment of other mental disorders (e.g. depression, PTSD, OCD), as well as suicidality and physical health problems (Hettema et al. 2005). Brief MI intervention can be delivered as a standalone treatment or as a motivational prelude to pharmacological and/or other psychological treatments (Hettema et al. 2005). MI has been used as an accompaniment to cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) in the treatment of both depression and anxiety for resolving ambivalence about change and developing strategies for responding to resistance (e.g. treatment attendance, homework/medication compliance; Arkowitz et al. 2008a, 2008b). This chapter will describe how to apply brief MI interventions to the treatment of depression and anxiety as applied to the case of Megan (see Box 16.1) along with some of the challenges and potential solutions to applying MI in practice.

New palladium catalysed reactions of bromoporphyrins: synthesis and crystal structures of nickel(II) complexes of primary 5-aminoporphyrin, 5,5’-bis(porphyrinyl) secondary amine, and 5-hydroxyporphyrin

Primary aminoporphyrin, secondary bis(porphyrinyl)amine and hydroxyporphyrin complexes have been isolated and characterised both spectroscopically and crystallographically from the reaction of 5-bromo-10,15,20-triphenylporphyrinato-nickel(II) with hydrazine under palladium catalysis.

Full circle : the future of sustainable fashion manufacturing in New Zealand

Many fashion businesses in New Zealand have followed a global trend towards inexpensive off shore manufacturing. The transfer of the production of garments to overseas workers has had consequences for the wellbeing of local businesses, fashion designers and garment makers. The gradual decline of fashion manufacturing also appears to have resulted in a local fashion scene where many garments look the same in style, colour, fabric, cut and fit. The excitement of the past, where the majority of fashion designers established their own individuality through the cut and shape of the garments that they produced, may have been inadvertently lost in an effort to take advantage of cost savings achieved through mass production and manufacturing methods which are now largely unavailable in New Zealand. Consequently, a sustainable local fashion and manufacturing industry, with design integrity, seems further out of reach. This paper is focussed upon the thesis that the design and manufacture of a fashion garment, bearing in mind certain economic and practical restrictions at its inception, can contribute to a more sustainable fashion manufacturing industry in New Zealand.

MobileMums: A randomized controlled trial of an SMS-based physical activity intervention

Background Postnatal women (<12 months postpartum) are at increased risk of physical inactivity. Purpose To evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of a theory-based physical activity (PA) intervention delivered to postnatal women primarily via mobile telephone short message service (SMS). Methods Eighty-eight women were randomized to the intervention (n=45) or minimal contact control (n=43) condition. The 12-week intervention consisted of a face-to-face PA goal-setting consultation, a goal-setting magnet, three to five personally tailored SMS/week and a nominated support person who received two SMS per week. SMS content targeted constructs of social cognitive theory. Frequency (days/week) and duration (min/week) of PA participation and walking for exercise were assessed via self-report at baseline, 6 and 13 weeks. Results Intervention participants increased PA frequency by 1.82 days/week (SE±0.18) by 13 weeks (F(2,85)=4.46, p=0.038) and walking for exercise frequency by 1.08 days/ week (SE±0.24) by 13 weeks (F(2,85)=5.38, p=0.02). Positive trends were observed for duration (min/week) of PA and walking for exercise. Conclusions Intervention exposure resulted in increased frequency of PA and walking for exercise in postnatal women.

A review of rationale for allocating costs and payments in producing and supplying public sector information PART A of 2 Parts – Chapters 1, 2 and 3) 13 March 2011 version

This work reviews the rationale and processes for raising revenue and allocating funds to perform information intensive activities that are pertinent to the work of democratic government. ‘Government of the people, by the people, for the people’ expresses an idea that democratic government has no higher authority than the people who agree to be bound by its rules. Democracy depends on continually learning how to develop understandings and agreements that can sustain voting majorities on which democratic law making and collective action depends. The objective expressed in constitutional terms is to deliver ‘peace, order and good government’. Meeting this objective requires a collective intellectual authority that can understand what is possible; and a collective moral authority to understand what ought to happen in practice. Facts of life determine that a society needs to retain its collective competence despite a continual turnover of its membership as people die but life goes on. Retaining this ‘collective competence’ in matters of self-government depends on each new generation: • acquiring a collective knowledge of how to produce goods and services needed to sustain a society and its capacity for self-government; • Learning how to defend society diplomatically and militarily in relation to external forces to prevent overthrow of its self-governing capacity; and • Learning how to defend society against divisive internal forces to preserve the authority of representative legislatures, allow peaceful dispute resolution and maintain social cohesion.

Neo-planning : location-based social media to engage Australia’s new digital locals

Community engagement with time poor and seemingly apathetic citizens continues to challenge local governments. Capturing the attention of a digitally literate community who are technology and socially savvy adds a new quality to this challenge. Community engagement is resource and time intensive, yet local governments have to manage on continually tightened budgets. The benefits of assisting citizens in taking ownership in making their community and city a better place to live in collaboration with planners and local governments are well established. This study investigates a new collaborative form of civic participation and engagement for urban planning that employs in-place digital augmentation. It enhances people’s experience of physical spaces with digital technologies that are directly accessible within that space, in particular through interaction with mobile phones and public displays. The study developed and deployed a system called Discussions in Space (DIS) in conjunction with a major urban planning project in Brisbane. Planners used the system to ask local residents planning-related questions via a public screen, and passers-by sent responses via SMS or Twitter onto the screen for others to read and reflect, hence encouraging in-situ, real-time, civic discourse. The low barrier of entry proved to be successful in engaging a wide range of residents who are generally not heard due to their lack of time or interest. The system also reflected positively on the local government for reaching out in this way. Challenges and implications of the short-texted and ephemeral nature of this medium were evaluated in two focus groups with urban planners. The paper concludes with an analysis of the planners’ feedback evaluating the merits of the data generated by the system to better engage with Australia’s new digital locals.

Review of de Bruijn, M., F. Nyamnjoh and I. Brinkman (eds.). 2009. Mobile phones : the new talking drums of everyday Africa

Since the late 1990s, there has been great enthusiasm expressed about the positive impact that can be obtained for poor and disadvantaged people from information and communication technologies (ICTs). This school of thought among researchers and practitioners is identified as ICTs for development (ICT4D). By contrast, a growing number of researchers eschew the technologically deterministic nature of the claims being made for development progress and seek to understand the role of technology in people’s lives, primarily through ethnographic studies. This book, which focuses on mobile telephony on the African continent, fits into the latter body of literature, with several authors explicitly stating they are examining social and cultural settings and are not taking a technologically deterministic view. The book captures the diverse ways various communities are using this communication technology. It adds to the burgeoning field of mobile phone studies, in which an increasing number of studies is emerging from developing countries.

Sustainable fashion textiles research : engaging with new technologies

This article provides a discussion about how new technologies will enable Fashion Textiles Research to be disseminated amongst a new generation of producers and consumers via interactive and web technologies. How appropriate are these methods for Fashion Textiles Research? What are the advantages of these mediums and what will this mean for researchers, producers and consumers now and in the future, as the traditional platforms such as Journal Papers and Conferences, become obsolete? Can we predict the future of communicating textile research by assessing the way in which research is being conducted with the use of electronic databases, the Internet and with the emergence of electronic journals?

Examination of gaze behaviors under in situ and video simulation task constraints reveals differences in information pickup for perception and action

Gaze and movement behaviors of association football goalkeepers were compared under two video simulation conditions (i.e., verbal and joystick movement responses) and three in situ conditions (i.e., verbal, simplified body movement, and interceptive response). The results showed that the goalkeepers spent more time fixating on information from the penalty kick taker’s movements than ball location for all perceptual judgment conditions involving limited movement (i.e., verbal responses, joystick movement, and simplified body movement). In contrast, an equivalent amount of time was spent fixating on the penalty taker’s relative motions and the ball location for the in situ interception condition, which required the goalkeepers to attempt to make penalty saves. The data suggest that gaze and movement behaviors function differently, depending on the experimental task constraints selected for empirical investigations. These findings highlight the need for research on perceptual— motor behaviors to be conducted in representative experimental conditions to allow appropriate generalization of conclusions to performance environments.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Exposure of pipe insulation to high temperatures from domestic pumped storage (split) solar water heating systems in Australia and New Zealand

Pipe insulation between the collector and storage tank on pumped storage (commonly called split), solar water heaters can be subject to high temperatures, with a maximum equal to the collector stagnation temperature. The frequency of occurrence of these temperatures is dependent on many factors including climate, hot water demand, system size and efficiency. This paper outlines the findings of a computer modelling study to quantify the frequency of occurrence of pipe temperatures of 80 degrees Celsius or greater at the outlet of the collectors for these systems. This study will help insulation suppliers determine the suitability of their materials for this application. The TRNSYS program was used to model the performance of a common size of domestic split solar system, using both flat plate and evacuated tube, selective surface collectors. Each system was modelled at a representative city in each of the 6 climate zones for Australia and New Zealand, according to AS/NZS4234 - Heat Water Systems - Calculation of energy consumption, and the ORER RECs calculation method. TRNSYS was used to predict the frequency of occurrence of the temperatures that the pipe insulation would be exposed to over an average year, for hot water consumption patterns specified in AS/NZS4234, and for worst case conditions in each of the climate zones. The results show; * For selectively surfaced, flat plate collectors in the hottest location (Alice Sprints) with a medium size hot water demand according to AS/NZS2434, the annual frequency of occurrence of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 33 hours. The frequency of temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius was insignificant. * For evacuated tube collectors in the hottest location (Alice Springs), the annual frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 50 hours. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were significant and were estimated to occur for more than 21 hours per year in this climate zone. Even in Melbourne, temperatures at and above 80 degrees can occur for 12 hours per year and at and above 140 degrees for 5 hours per year. * The worst case identified was for evacuated tube collectors in Alice Springs, with mostly afternoon loads in January. Under these conditions, the frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 10 hours for this month only. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were predicted to occur for 5 hours in January.