Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

Photographic analysis of natural and impounded salt marsh in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida

Qualitative analyses of available photographs and maps of Merritt Island, Florida provide a large-scale, historical perspective of ecological changes of the marshes in the vicinity. Sites that deserve closer scrutiny can be identified. Secondarily, such an analysis provides a geographical orientation essential for communication not only between newcomers and those familiar with the area, but also among those familiar with the area but who refer to sites by differing methods. Photographs and maps from various sources were examined. Below are listed what we consider to be the most useful subset of these for ecological and geographical assessment of salt marsh impoundments on Merritt Island, Florida. (Document has 25 pages.)

In vitro activities of natural products against oral Candida isolates from denture wearers

Background: Candida-associated denture stomatitis is a frequent infectious disease. Treatment of this oral condition is difficult because failures and recurrences are common. The aim of this study was to test the in vitro antifungal activity of pure constituents of essentials oils. -- Methods: Eight terpenic derivatives (carvacrol, farnesol, geraniol, linalool, menthol, menthone, terpinen-4-ol, and aterpineol), a phenylpropanoid (eugenol), a phenethyl alcohol (tyrosol) and fluconazole were evaluated against 38 Candida isolated from denture-wearers and 10 collection Candida strains by the CLSI M27-A3 broth microdilution method. -- Results: Almost all the tested compounds showed antifungal activity with MIC ranges of 0.03-0.25% for eugenol and linalool, 0.03-0.12% for geraniol, 0.06-0.5% for menthol, a-terpineol and terpinen-4-ol, 0.03-0.5% for carvacrol, and 0.06-4% for menthone. These compounds, with the exception of farnesol, menthone and tyrosol, showed important in vitro activities against the fluconazole-resistant and susceptible-dose dependent Candida isolates. -- Conclusions: Carvacrol, eugenol, geraniol, linalool and terpinen-4-ol were very active in vitro against oral Candida isolates. Their fungistatic and fungicidal activities might convert them into promising alternatives for the topic treatment of oral candidiasis and denture stomatitis.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controled clinical trial of sublingual immunotherapy in natural rubber latex allergic patients

Trial registration number: CTRN12611000543987

La internacionalización de la empresa manufacturera española: Efectos del capital humano genérico y específico

[ES] La eficiencia y capacidad competitiva de las organizaciones depende —además de otros factores— de la calidad del capital humano de que disponen. Así, el objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el efecto del capital humano de la empresa tanto en la decisión de entrar en los mercados internacionales como en la intensidad de ventas realizadas en dichos mercados utilizando modelos de regresión logit y tobit. El trabajo empírico se realiza sobre una muestra de empresas manufactureras españolas. El capital humano se evalúa desde una doble óptica, por un lado se considera la formación genérica de los empleados y por otro lado la formación específica de los mismos. Los resultados muestran que la formación genérica y la específica tienen un efecto positivo y significativo tanto sobre la decisión de entrar en los mercados internacionales como en la intensidad de ventas realizadas en dichos mercados.

A capital federal e a constituição da república : apello ao Congresso Nacional

Desenvolve argumentos políticos, financeiros e de segurança, no sentido de mostrar a necessidade urgente de retirar a capital do país do Rio de Janeiro e mudá-la para um ponto mais central do território brasileiro. Afirma que o local mais viável para o assentamento da nova capital seria a cidade de Belo Horizonte.

A mudança da Capital Federal

Apresenta coletânea de notícias e artigos sobre a mudança da capital do país para o Planalto Central.

A localização da nova capital da República

Apresenta texto da Resolução do Conselho Nacional de Estatística n. 388, de 21 de Julho de 1948, com sugestões a propósito da transferência da capital da República para o Planalto Central do Brasil. Contém estudos do General Djalma Poli Coelho que buscam demonstrar que o Planalto Central possui excelentes qualidades geográficas para a instalação do novo centro administrativo e político do país. Desenvolve considerações gerais sobre as bases para o planejamento da nova capital federal.

Demanda de información sobre capital intelectual en las Universidades públicas españolas

[ES] En el actual contexto de la Sociedad del Conocimiento las instituciones de educación superior deben prestar una atención preferente a las nuevas demandas informativas de sus stakeholders. El objetivo de este trabajo será evidenciar la necesidad de que las universidades incorporen información sobre capital intelectual en su actual sistema de información contable.

Facilitated advocacy: supporting farmers to have a voice in policy making and the development of service provision

Listening to people, especially those who are poor, and involving them in policy making and decisions about service delivery processes are logical steps in building better services and improving policies aimed at poverty alleviation. This case describes a facilitated advocacy that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people who farm and fish, to contribute recommendations for changes in services and policies that impact on their lives. The national Government of India’s Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, both in the capital Delhi, have been linking with farmers and fishers and state government officials in the eastern states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, in partnership with the STREAM Initiative of the intergovernmental Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia Pacific and with the support of the UK Government Department for International Development, Natural resources Systems Program supporting farmers to have a voice(13 p.)

Natural Suppression of the Aquatic Weed Salvinia molesta D.S. Mitchell, by Two Previously Unreported Fungal Pathogens

Salvinia molesta D. S. Mitchell (Salviniaceae), variously called giant salvinia, water fern or African payal, is a vegetatively reproducing, perennial, free-floating, aquatic weed, native to southeastern Brazil (Waterhouse and Norris 1987). It (hereafter called salvinia) is a very serious weed in most regions outside its native range (Harley and Mitchell 1981) including India. The purpose of this paper is to report on two fungal pathogens that were found to be the cause of a sudden decline in salvinia in Bangalore.(PDF has 4 pages.)

Coro celeste a quatro vozes : vida musica em solfa metrica, da esclarecida, augustiniana, beata Rita : advogada poderosa dos impossiveis com hum ramilhete de seus milagres, colhido na floresta das suas virtudes, com hum encomio mais a mesma Santa, e um periodo Latino a sua morte, com que a devoção obsequiosa do author coroa o livro : offerecido ao senhor Sylvestre Peyxoto da Silva / author Luís Botelho Froes de Figueyredo, philosopho, canonista, natural de Villa de Santarem

Luis Botelho Fróis de Figueiredo nasceu em Santarém, em 1675, e morreu em Alicante, Espanha, em 1720. Estudou direito canônico e filosofia na Universidade de Coimbra.