Safety Assessment Tool for Construction Zone Work Phasing Plans, 2016

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is the compilation of national safety research that provides quantitative methods for analyzing highway safety. The HSM presents crash modification functions related to freeway work zone characteristics such as work zone duration and length. These crash modification functions were based on freeway work zones with high traffic volumes in California. When the HSM-referenced model was calibrated for Missouri, the value was 3.78, which is not ideal since it is significantly larger than 1. Therefore, new models were developed in this study using Missouri data to capture geographical, driver behavior, and other factors in the Midwest. Also, new models for expressway and rural two-lane work zones that barely were studied in the literature were developed. A large sample of 20,837 freeway, 8,993 expressway, and 64,476 rural two-lane work zones in Missouri was analyzed to derive 15 work zone crash prediction models. The most appropriate samples of 1,546 freeway, 1,189 expressway, and 6,095 rural two-lane work zones longer than 0.1 mile and with a duration of greater than 10 days were used to make eight, four, and three models, respectively. A challenging question for practitioners is always how to use crash prediction models to make the best estimation of work zone crash count. To solve this problem, a user-friendly software tool was developed in a spreadsheet format to predict work zone crashes based on work zone characteristics. This software selects the best model, estimates the work zone crashes by severity, and converts them to monetary values using standard crash estimates. This study also included a survey of departments of transportation (DOTs), Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) representatives, and contractors to assess the current state of the practice regarding work zone safety. The survey results indicate that many agencies look at work zone safety informally using engineering judgment. Respondents indicated that they would like a tool that could help them to balance work zone safety across projects by looking at crashes and user costs.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassifi cation. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued eff orts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

A social-ecological impact assessment for public lands management: application of a conceptual and methodological framework

According to the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), federal action to manipulate habitat for species conservation requires an environmental impact statement, which should integrate natural, physical, economic, and social sciences in planning and decision making. Nonetheless, most impact assessments focus disproportionately on physical or ecological impacts rather than integrating ecological and socioeconomic components. We developed a participatory social-ecological impact assessment (SEIA) that addresses the requirements of NEPA and integrates social and ecological concepts for impact assessments. We cooperated with the Bureau of Land Management in Idaho, USA on a project designed to restore habitat for the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). We employed questionnaires, workshop dialogue, and participatory mapping exercises with stakeholders to identify potential environmental changes and subsequent impacts expected to result from the removal of western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis). Via questionnaires and workshop dialogue, stakeholders identified 46 environmental changes and associated positive or negative impacts to people and communities in Owyhee County, Idaho. Results of the participatory mapping exercises showed that the spatial distribution of social, economic, and ecological values throughout Owyhee County are highly associated with the two main watersheds, wilderness areas, and the historic town of Silver City. Altogether, the SEIA process revealed that perceptions of project scale varied among participants, highlighting the need for specificity about spatial and temporal scales. Overall, the SEIA generated substantial information concerning potential impacts associated with habitat treatments for Greater Sage-Grouse. The SEIA is transferable to other land management and conservation contexts because it supports holistic understanding and framing of connections between humans and ecosystems. By applying this SEIA framework, land managers and affected people have an opportunity to fulfill NEPA requirements and develop more comprehensive management plans that better reflect the linkages of social-ecological systems.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Measurement of the Ocean Economy From National Income Accounts to the Sustainable Blue Economy

The widespread efforts to incorporate the economic values of oceans into national income accounts have reached a stage where coordination of national efforts is desirable. A symposium held in 2015 began this process by bringing together representatives from ten countries. The symposium concluded that a definition of core ocean industries was possible but beyond that core the definition of ocean industries is in flux. Better coordination of ocean income accounts will require addressing issues of aggregation, geography, partial ocean industries, confidential, and imputation is also needed. Beyond the standard national income accounts, a need to incorporate environmental resource and ecosystem service values to gain a complete picture of the economic role of the oceans was identified. The U.N. System of Environmental and Economic Accounts and the Experimental Ecosystem Service Accounts provide frameworks for this expansion. This will require the development of physical accounts of environmental assets linked to the economic accounts as well as the adaptation of transaction and welfare based economic valuation methods to environmental resources and ecosystem services. The future development of ocean economic data is most likely to require cooperative efforts at development of metadata standards and the use of multiple platforms of opportunity created by policy analysis, economic development, and conservation projects to both collect new economic data and to sustain ocean economy data collection into the future by building capacity in economic data collection and use..

A NAIRU assessment: an applied case to Colombia’s labor markets

Given the discrepancy over the optimum levels of employment for Colombia, this research targets both, the national and urban, Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for the Colombian markets -- In doing so, there is a strong pertinence in estimating the constant NAIRU through raw and minimally altered data and providing the reader with a complete brief of the theory in which the model is founded -- The introduction of supply shocks is considered to attain improved estimations and a more reliable assessment of the NAIRU to those that have previously been attempted -- The backbone of the analysis is conducted through the relationship established by the Phillips curve from 2001 until 2015

Microbiological assessment of indoor air quality at different hospital sites

Poor hospital indoor air quality (IAQ) may lead to hospital-acquired infections, sick hospital syndrome and various occupational hazards. Air-control measures are crucial for reducing dissemination of airborne biological particles in hospitals. The objective of this study was to perform a survey of bioaerosol quality in different sites in a Portuguese Hospital, namely the operating theater (OT), the emergency service (ES) and the surgical ward (SW). Aerobic mesophilic bacterial counts (BCs) and fungal load (FL) were assessed by impaction directly onto tryptic soy agar and malt extract agar supplemented with antibiotic chloramphenicol (0.05%) plates, respectively using a MAS-100 air sampler. The ES revealed the highest airborne microbial concentrations (BC range 240-736 CFU/m(3) CFU/m(3); FL range 27-933 CFU/m(3)), exceeding, at several sampling sites, conformity criteria defined in national legislation [6]. Bacterial concentrations in the SW (BC range 99-495 CFU/m(3)) and the OT (BC range 12-170 CFU/m(3)) were under recommended criteria. While fungal levels were below 1 CFU/m(3) in the OT, in the SW (range 1-32 CFU/m(3)), there existed a site with fungal indoor concentrations higher than those detected outdoors. Airborne Gram-positive cocci were the most frequent phenotype (88%) detected from the measured bacterial population in all indoor environments. Staphylococcus (51%) and Micrococcus (37%) were dominant among the bacterial genera identified in the present study. Concerning indoor fungal characterization, the prevalent genera were Penicillium (41%) and Aspergillus (24%). Regular monitoring is essential for assessing air control efficiency and for detecting irregular introduction of airborne particles via clothing of visitors and medical staff or carriage by personal and medical materials. Furthermore, microbiological survey data should be used to clearly define specific air quality guidelines for controlled environments in hospital settings.

The fisheries resources of Lake Nakivali: report of a rapid assessment of the Lake Nakivali fishery

Lake Nakivali is one of the four small lakes that form what is known as the Koki lakes system. It is 14 km long, 6 km wide, 26 km2 in area and has maximum depth of 3.5 m at high water level. The lake is located in a lake-swamp complex with River Rwizi as the principle inflow, and a number of peripheral lakes among which are four major ones, i.e. Lakes Nakivali, Mburo, Kachira, and Kijanebalola. The survey therefore established that Lake Nakivali is a healthy ecosystem capable of sustaining fisheries production. While stock enhancement through restocking with fry could boost fish stocks, especially of the Nile tilapia, effective management measures that allow natural regeneration of stocks of indigenous fish species is paramount. This may require closed fishing seasons and control of fishing effort. Tank aquaculture is a viable option for increasing fish production and Ngege (O. niloticus) and Male (C. gariepinus) are candidate fish species for fish farming.

Lake Victoria fisheries catch assessment survey (CAS) information, Uganda 2005-2007

Management of fisheries resources requires information on the fish stocks; the magnitude, distribution and trends of fishing effort and the trends of fish catches. Catch Assessment Surveys (CAS) in Lake Victoria are one of the ways through which the partner states sharing the lake are generating the key information required. In the Uganda part of the lake, CAS activities are carried out at 54 fish landing sites in the 11 riparian districts. The National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), the Department of Fisheries Resources (DFR), and the Districts of Busia, Bugiri, Mayuge, Jinja, Mukono, Wakiso, Kampala, Mpigi, Masaka, Kalangala and Rakai jointly conduct the surveys, The CAS enumerators are recruited from the fishing communities and work under direct supervision of sub-county fisheries officers. This fact sheet presents catch statistics for the period 2005 to 2007

Catch assessment survey of Uganda waters

The Artisanal Fisheries Rehabilitation Project (AFRP) Uganda Freshwater Fisheries Research Organisation (UFFRO) Survey was conducted during January - March 1989. The aim of the survey was to evaluate the impact of the AFRP on the national fisheries, assessing the current catch levels, and determining the socio-economic position of the fishermen. On the catch assessment, the survey collected information more specifically on the following: (i) Fish production in Uganda by major species groups. (li) Size structure of the harvested fish. (iii) Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the major fish species.

Lake Victoria fisheries catch assessment survey (CAS) information June 2006

The National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NAFIRRI), the Department of Fisheries Resources (DFR) and the districts in and around Lake Victoria jointly conduct Catch Assessment Surveys (CAS) with a major objective of providing information on the magnitude of fish catches in the lake. Fisheries contribute as high as 12% to Uganda's GDP. Catch assessment surveys are some of the avenues used to collect information for monitoring fish population dynamics as well as the magnitude, distribution and trends of fishing effort and fish catches. They are necessary for making sound decisions for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries. This information provides the Catch Per Unit of Effort (CPUE). The CPUE is used together with frame survey data to estimate total fish catches.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria for the May 2014 survey

This report presents findings of the CAS conducted in the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria in December 2015. The results of the previous thirteen harmonized CASs conducted since July 2005 (July, August, September and November 2005; in March, August and December 2006; in March and August 2007; in February and December 2008; March 2010; May 2011 and May 2014) are included to show the emerging trends. The report also presents annual catch estimates for the Ugandan part of the lake from 2005 to 2015. This information together with other fish stock assessment and socio-economic monitoring survey data can now be utilized in the planning and management of the fisheries resources of Lake Victoria. The 2014 CAS results were very vital in the development of the Lake Victoria Fisheries Management Plan 2014.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey conducted in December 2015 on the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria

This CAS report provides estimates of the quantities of fish landed in the riparian districts sharing the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria; the monetary value of the fish catches; the contribution of different fish species to the catches; and the trends in fish catch rates, and the monthly catches for the sampled month since the beginning of harmonized CAS activities in July 2005 to December 2015. The report also compares the annual catch and gross beach value of catch landings in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015. A total of 15 CASs have been undertaken in the Uganda sector of the lake with data gaps in 2009, 2012 and 2013 due to financial constraints. The annual catch estimates for the years 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 were based on one sampling covering the rainy season and may not capture changes that could occur in dry season. There is need to include dry season sampling in future surveys.